Tanker War Redux

[Stuart Galbraith]

I do have to wonder at the mentality of Moscow, that they are doing military exercises with people that are illegally holding their sailors. Pretty fucked up.

[Josh]

The timing may not have been entirely on London's schedule, but Washington's.

 

As far as naval exercises between Russia and Iran, they reduce America's freedom to escalate, but do not eliminate.

 

If you're dumb enough to pull a gun, you have to be smart enough to pull the trigger.

 

Words to live by.

 

Russian exercises do nothing to constrict US options. They aren't even entering the Gulf for the exercises. As far as I can tell the exercise is with the 'regular' Iranian navy, not the IRGC. They are two completely different organizations that fall under the same civilian command fairly close to the very top.

[Adam Peter]

illegally holding their sailors

 

Said by who?

[Stuart Galbraith]

Maritime law. And me, natch.

[Mistral]

Whenever a great power references the law you know they are lying.

[Chris Werb]

Whenever a great power references the law you know they are lying.

 

Or at least being highly selective.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Better than never referencing law at all, which is becoming increasingly popular.

[Colin]

 

illegally holding their sailors

 

Said by who?

 

At least one of the crew is Russian for sure, and none are British and it's a Swedish owned ship.

[Nobu]

Russian exercises do nothing to constrict US options. They aren't even entering the Gulf for the exercises.

 

Differentiating between an Iranian Project 877 Kilo and a Russian one may not be easy.

 

If we get some buckaroo...

[Colin]

Easy, one is tossing bits of beets over the side and the other smells of Saffron.

[Josh]

Russian exercises do nothing to constrict US options. They aren't even entering the Gulf for the exercises.

 

Differentiating between an Iranian Project 877 Kilo and a Russian one may not be easy.

 

If we get some buckaroo...

 

I doubt the US would care if it was a war. Don't step into the kitchen if you don't want to get burned. Plus getting a Kilo from Kamchatka to the Gulf would be difficult. Getting one from the Black Sea would require an almost as long trip or else a trip through Suez. Not impossible, but it would require some refueling by someone on the surface.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Be easier to sling it on the back of a ship and drive it there.

 

I could imagine the Russian navy want a Persian Gulf Flotilla for giggles. Happily I cant imagine the Iranians would be very receptive.

[Josh]

Putin doesn't risk expensive assets on the other side of the world. His entire strategy is pushing on trouble spots with a shoestring budget. He's a gambler who folds unless he knows no one at the table has a decent hand.

The Russians will sends a couple of ships as a fuck you to the US and to get concessions out of Iran in Syria, and after a week they will go home. Presumably a tug will be part of the exercise.

[Nobu]

It would be even easier, not to mention more economical, to announce the deployment of an 877 without actually doing so.

 

I doubt the US would care if it was a war.

 

And therein lies the fear.

[Stuart Galbraith]

This is an interesting discussion of where we are now.

 

[glenn239]

On the submarine front, the Russians would deploy a nuclear boat or two to the Arabian Sea, certainly not a Kilo and certainly not in the Persian Gulf itself. Russian aid to Iran in a war would be intelligence, maybe some equipment, and defensive measures such as GPS jamming.

Nobu And therein lies the fear.

 

Russia will limit its participation and the US will not go out of its way to start a war by attacking Russian assets on a pretext. Moscow does not want regime change in Iran and would work actively to prevent that, but my bet would be that's probably about as far as it goes - Iran and the USA in a state of perpetual enmity suites Russia just fine. Better for Russia to work with the Europeans and the Chinese for a diplomatic solution.

Edited August 1, 2019 by glenn239

[BansheeOne]

Another incident, no report on nationality yet. Can't be a big ship by the numbers given though, possibly local.

 

August 4, 2019 / 11:07 AM / Updated an hour ago

 

Iran seizes a foreign oil tanker in Gulf smuggling fuel to some Arab states: TV

 

DUBAI (Reuters) - Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps has seized a foreign oil tanker in the Gulf that was smuggling fuel to some Arab states, Iran’s state TV reported, adding that seven sailors onboard of the tanker had been detained.

 

“The IRGC’s naval forces have seized a foreign oil tanker in the Persian Gulf that was smuggling fuel for some Arab countries,” TV quoted IRGC commander Ramezan Zirahi as saying.

 

“It carried 700,000 liters of fuel. Seven sailors onboard of the tanker, who are from different nationalities, were detained.”

 

[...]

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-iran-tanker/iran-seizes-a-foreign-oil-tanker-in-gulf-smuggling-fuel-to-some-arab-states-tv-idUSKCN1UU08Y

[Stuart Galbraith]

Iranian ports must be starting to look a bit like Dawsons Field.

 

At this point I have to question what they are doing. Small tankers are not going to influence anybody. Perhaps they think the more hulls they have, the more concern its going to cause, but I would have thought that its cargo that most people are worried about. Even the 'British' tanker was riding empty. They even did it at a spectacularly dumb time when everyone in the world is more interested in whats happening in the US. Its like the IRGC is saying 'Look at me, im important! Somebody? Anybody?'.

 

Remarkably the price of oil continues to decline.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-resumes-slide-trade-war-224555493.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmluZy5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAABRasSoEjOIZ43PIDeCqJ_-zN7nZgyXAuN4rG33feu3vuRN7BAwgrQAa1dWceSb7QOG46gnP2OosgwNeFSt47bbWQnr2ybck5VdktA8VO19nnyFzDLf4JBupQY2hIULzCraIb-i1tYL9l8nHoVzLHEgc_BACKc3OTTT15hDZ1_-M

Edited August 5, 2019 by Stuart Galbraith

[Stuart Galbraith]

It does indeed look very small.

https://www.dw.com/en/iran-seizes-another-foreign-oil-tanker-in-gulf/av-49892608

[Colin]

 

On the submarine front, the Russians would deploy a nuclear boat or two to the Arabian Sea, certainly not a Kilo and certainly not in the Persian Gulf itself. Russian aid to Iran in a war would be intelligence, maybe some equipment, and defensive measures such as GPS jamming.

 

Nobu And therein lies the fear.

 

 

Russia will limit its participation and the US will not go out of its way to start a war by attacking Russian assets on a pretext. Moscow does not want regime change in Iran and would work actively to prevent that, but my bet would be that's probably about as far as it goes - Iran and the USA in a state of perpetual enmity suites Russia just fine. Better for Russia to work with the Europeans and the Chinese for a diplomatic solution.

 

How would regime change affect Russia. In fact a more open Iranian government free of sanctions, would mean more economic activity for Russia and would eventually resolve the dilemma of Iranian proxy's in Syria. Allowing Russia to push Israel to reduce attacks within Syria.

[Stuart Galbraith]

They don't look at it that way. Any country choosing Democracy is a threat to putin. Look how much effort they expended to reverse the regime change in Sudan.

 

Zero sum game we win, they lose.

Edited August 5, 2019 by Stuart Galbraith

[JasonJ]

The UK decided to join the US-led escort campaign, becoming the first to do so.

Britain says it has joined the United States in a new maritime security mission to protect vessels traveling through the Strait of Hormuz.

 

Defense Secretary Ben Wallace made the announcement in a statement on Monday.

 

He said, "We look forward to working alongside the US and others to find an international solution to the problems."

 

UK media report say that Britain is the first country to join the US-led mission.

 

British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said, "It is vital to secure the freedom for all international shipping to navigate the Strait of Hormuz without delay, given the increased threat."

 

He added, "We remain committed to working with Iran and our international partners to de-escalate the situation and maintain the nuclear deal."

 

Last month, Raab's predecessor Jeremy Hunt proposed a European-led initiative to protect international vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

 

Observers say Britain joining the US mission is a clear indication of a shift toward Washington under new Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20190806_33/ Edited August 6, 2019 by JasonJ

[JasonJ]

The Japanese government is considering dispatching the SDF on an independent mission to the Hormuz Strait. Doing so would be a smaller political hurdle than if joining the US-led mission and it would also aim to avoid making relations with Iran worse. If dispatched, the SDF wouldn't send warships but send things like JMSDF P-3C for warning and intelligence gathering. Contributions to the US or coalition would be made in the form of intelligence sharing.

 

政府が中東・ホルムズ海峡での航行の安全確保に関し、自衛隊の独自派遣を軸に検討していることが分かった。米国が呼びかける有志連合への参加は法的なハードルが高い上、イランとの関係悪化も避けられないため、自衛隊単独での警戒監視や情報収集などを通じ日本の役割を果たす方針だ。複数の政府関係者が５日、明らかにした。

 

　派遣する場合は、海上自衛隊のＰ３Ｃ哨戒機などが有力で、護衛艦といった艦船は送らない方向だ。艦船の場合、軍事衝突に直接巻き込まれるなどの可能性があるため。活動は防衛省設置法の「調査・研究」に基づく情報収集や警戒監視などが想定されている。

 

　派遣地域はホルムズ海峡のほか、海賊対策にあたるため自衛隊が拠点を置いているアフリカ東部ジブチに近いバベルマンデブ海峡も選択肢に浮上している。

 

　米国は日本を含む同盟諸国に対し、ホルムズ海峡などでの航行の安全確保に向けた有志連合への参加を呼びかけている。ただ、日本には法的な課題が大きい。海賊対処法は他国船を含めた民間船舶を警護できるが、海賊対策に限られる。政府は６月にホルムズ海峡で日本のタンカーを攻撃した主体を特定しておらず、根拠にするのは難しい。

 

　自衛隊法に基づく海上警備行動は、日本と無関係の外国船舶は護衛できず、武器使用の権限も正当防衛や緊急避難など警察権の範囲に限られる。安全保障関連法に規定される重要影響事態や存立危機事態には厳格な歯止めがあり、認定される可能性は低い。

 

　イランとの関係悪化も懸念される。政府関係者は「米国が主導する有志連合に加わればイランとの関係が損なわれ、かえってエネルギー安全保障が脅かされる可能性もある」と語る。

 

　一方、原油輸入の９割近くを中東に頼る日本にとって重要なシーレーン（海上交通路）のホルムズ海峡で何も対応しないわけにはいかず、単独で空から収集した情報を米国や有志連合に提供する形で貢献する案が有力となっている。政府は現地の情勢を注視しながら、引き続き具体的な対応策を検討している。

https://www.sankei.com/smp/politics/news/190806/plt1908060004-s1.html

[Nobu]

 

Russia will limit its participation and the US will not go out of its way to start a war by attacking Russian assets on a pretext. Moscow does not want regime change in Iran and would work actively to prevent that, but my bet would be that's probably about as far as it goes - Iran and the USA in a state of perpetual enmity suites Russia just fine. Better for Russia to work with the Europeans and the Chinese for a diplomatic solution.

 

 

Should tensions escalate to war at sea, Iran's Project 877s will pose a danger if left unaccounted for.

 

I don't think it will come to that, however, as not only should cooler heads on all sides prevail long before that point, but also it is becoming apparent that the last thing the White House wants is to be called on what looks like a military bluff for bargaining position.

[Stuart Galbraith]

The UK decided to join the US-led escort campaign, becoming the first to do so.

Britain says it has joined the United States in a new maritime security mission to protect vessels traveling through the Strait of Hormuz.

 

Defense Secretary Ben Wallace made the announcement in a statement on Monday.

 

He said, "We look forward to working alongside the US and others to find an international solution to the problems."

 

UK media report say that Britain is the first country to join the US-led mission.

 

British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said, "It is vital to secure the freedom for all international shipping to navigate the Strait of Hormuz without delay, given the increased threat."

 

He added, "We remain committed to working with Iran and our international partners to de-escalate the situation and maintain the nuclear deal."

 

Last month, Raab's predecessor Jeremy Hunt proposed a European-led initiative to protect international vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

 

Observers say Britain joining the US mission is a clear indication of a shift toward Washington under new Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20190806_33/

 

 

 

Observers are talking complete crap. I loathe Johnson, but it was a straightforward recognition that we dont have enough ships in the region, and the Europeans are wholly disinterested in picking up the British plan for a European escort scheme. I hope we point and laugh when the Iranians pick up a French registered ship.