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there aren't a lot of crew members for a ship of this size. If an individual crewer was walking around just before an explosion there is no telling what they may report when they start replaying it in their mind.

More and more it looks like an Iranian false flag attack against Iran itself which is peculiar to say the least. It seems like the Iranians may have some rogue elements in their own forces. The government doesn't gain anything from friction with Japan.

 

What happens next with the interned crew will be an indicator.

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Of course, they might be rather more cavalier about such things. One shout of 'Allah Akbar' and the application of a big hammer :)

 

 

How do you know they were not trained EOD personnel? Working in one of those michelin-Man suits is not easy and on a moving boat at sea seems impossible to me.

 


 

there aren't a lot of crew members for a ship of this size. If an individual crewer was walking around just before an explosion there is no telling what they may report when they start replaying it in their mind.

More and more it looks like an Iranian false flag attack against Iran itself which is peculiar to say the least. It seems like the Iranians may have some rogue elements in their own forces. The government doesn't gain anything from friction with Japan.

 

What happens next with the interned crew will be an indicator.

 

Exactly. these ships have like two dozen crewmen in a three shift rotation. Lots of blind spots around the ship, because there are simply not enough eyes to watch. That is why pirates so easily get near these ships even in bright daylight.

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Of course, they might be rather more cavalier about such things. One shout of 'Allah Akbar' and the application of a big hammer :)

 

 

How do you know they were not trained EOD personnel? Working in one of those michelin-Man suits is not easy and on a moving boat at sea seems impossible to me.

 


 

there aren't a lot of crew members for a ship of this size. If an individual crewer was walking around just before an explosion there is no telling what they may report when they start replaying it in their mind.

More and more it looks like an Iranian false flag attack against Iran itself which is peculiar to say the least. It seems like the Iranians may have some rogue elements in their own forces. The government doesn't gain anything from friction with Japan.

 

What happens next with the interned crew will be an indicator.

 

Exactly. these ships have like two dozen crewmen in a three shift rotation. Lots of blind spots around the ship, because there are simply not enough eyes to watch. That is why pirates so easily get near these ships even in bright daylight.

 

 

You wouldnt want a michelin man suit, you would just want someone training in the removal of such weapons on the vessel. How efficient do you think the USN is that they would eod train personnel on hand for such things? So why are crediting the Iranians with being better organized?

 

I grant you, it is possible. Im suggesting that to me at least, it doesnt seem likely. To me, it looks more likely if they had a limpet mine skilled guy, he probably put it there.

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You wouldnt want a michelin man suit, you would just want someone training in the removal of such weapons on the vessel. How efficient do you think the USN is that they would eod train personnel on hand for such things? So why are crediting the Iranians with being better organized?

 

I grant you, it is possible. Im suggesting that to me at least, it doesnt seem likely. To me, it looks more likely if they had a limpet mine skilled guy, he probably put it there.

Of course. a sailor trained in limpet mine use is probably the only guy they had on hand. If he had even that. But rightout claiming he was not, well, we just do not know. But something had to be done on the spot, they could not let it hang there and maybe explode later.

Edited by Panzermann
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So they sent a boat full of people, who would surely have perished if the device had gone off during its removal.

 

But, of course, they knew it would not go off in the first place.

Edited by Daan
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I know the RN didnt ship with EOD personnel as a matter of course. In fact, so hard up for them in the Falklands Campaign were they, they had to borrow them from the Army. Id personally be surprised if that has changed since.

 

Like I say, I find the Iranians being better equipped in this area distinctly fishy. But no, its not conclusive evidence, any more than fitting the limpet mines via Diver was probably an indicator of a Nation State was solid evidence. I should add, . I dont WANT it to be Iran, because if the stars align, someone will probably have to do something about it. When you keep asking the same questions and getting the same answers, the idea this is a fit up, for me at least, doesnt hold water.

 

Now If it was the French blowing up a Greenpeace ship, I could entirely buy it I might add. :)

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odds are they really did know it wouldn't go off because the guy taking it down is the guy who forgot to arm it when he put it there in the first place. They had to take it down no matter the risk involved because if another nation got the device then they may be able to identify the point of origin.

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Thats precisely what happened with the mines they laid in the straits 3 decades ago. When the US was able to find an Iranian ship laying them, and the mines were all in sequence of one that all but destroyed a US Destroyer, it was a slam dunk to figure out they did it.

 

So I guess they have moved on a little bit from M1898 sea mines of North Korean vintage. Not far though, apparently.

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I don't know so much about Japan-Iran relations other than that traditionally, they been fairly good. For the recent times, Abe of course makes great efforts to keep good relations with Trump while OTOH Iran doesn't like Trump and no message for Trump and no trust in Trump was stated by Iranian Supreme leader while he was sitting next to Abe. Last time a Japaneses PM visited Iran was in the 1970s, thus before the 1979 revolution. Japanese imports of Iranian oil was around 5% of total oil imports last year but the imports stopped in April. Iran wants the sanctions off before meeting Trump. Iran president Rouhani said Iran should not have and does not have intentions to have and make nukes during Abe's visit. It was said that both sides had a 2.5 hour discussion and hardly any details were given. Around 80% of Japan's energy comes from the ME. Another 8-10% is from Russia. Imports from the US started not long ago. I think the hits on the tankers was probably meant as a warning to Japan. Before heading to Iran, Netanyahu said to Abe in a phone call that pressure on Iran must remain.

Edited by JasonJ
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The attack is conveniently close to Iranian waters and far from most of the traffic:

 

d5ad456d349276cdadd311fef26b3fee.jpg

 

Re Front Altair, it must have been a very small torpedo to go off with no damage showing in the deck, so IMO it's a limpet mine too

 

front-altair-oil-tanker-attacked.jpg

 

Here you can see the hole is above the waterline:

 

tdc573cc_full_article.jpg

Edited by RETAC21
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I know the RN didnt ship with EOD personnel as a matter of course. In fact, so hard up for them in the Falklands Campaign were they, they had to borrow them from the Army. Id personally be surprised if that has changed since.

 

Like I say, I find the Iranians being better equipped in this area distinctly fishy. But no, its not conclusive evidence, any more than fitting the limpet mines via Diver was probably an indicator of a Nation State was solid evidence. I should add, . I dont WANT it to be Iran, because if the stars align, someone will probably have to do something about it. When you keep asking the same questions and getting the same answers, the idea this is a fit up, for me at least, doesnt hold water.

 

Difference being: Iran is operating on its hometurf, whereas the RN was 6834 nautical miles from home.

 

edit: damn the forum ate part of that sentence.

Now If it was the French blowing up a Greenpeace ship, I could entirely buy it I might add. :)

 

 

Which at the time it happened was not so clear. The truth came out, when the NZ police catched the two french agents a bit later. Otherwise the French Governemnt would still deny it. I am sure.

 

 

 

I still do not see a compelling motive for Iran doing this. Yes they layed mines in the pat, which obviously did not work out too good for them.

 

Okay, could be a rogue element wanting the battle at the end of times or maybe to unseat the current president of iran? :unsure:

Edited by Panzermann
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note that Iran is holding the other crew which means that the crew has information that Iran doesn't want to come to light. They may be able to buy their silence or get it with threats. Either way, a quicker release is better for the crew and worse for Iran.

I look for Iran to hold them as long as they can

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Okay, could be a rogue element wanting the battle at the end of times or maybe to unseat the current president of iran? :unsure:

 

The concept of a 'rogue element' is unnecessary.

 

The renewed US sanctions have hurt Iran badly and the country has recently been complaining about the lack of effort by other countries to develop attractive mechanisms to circumvent these sanctions. The spade of attacks on tankers is squarely aimed at these European and Asian nations. Iran is reminding them what it can do when it is neglected: high energy prices, reduced economic growth.

 

Iran probably estimates the US government is bound by the desire to keep things quiet with the upcoming elections and Trump's promises not to dive into a new foreign adventure. If the US would decide to respond with force, Iran can quickly ramp it up to a tanker war, which implies high prices at the gas station, foreign condemnations and a renewed US involved conflict in the Middle East with no clear ending without substantial US concessions and loss of face for Trump during an election campaign.

 

Of course Iran will incur substantial costs if it would choose to escalate, but game theory learns that a seemingly irrational position may lead to substantial payoffs if the opponent blinks first.

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A situation similar to a terror attack that no group has come forward to claim responsibility for. The investigation trail in these instances usually begins with who benefits and who does not.

 

Piecing together the picture of who sent the equivalent of X Flotilla MAS into action at the same time Abe was extending an olive branch to Tehran is going to be interesting.

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Okay, could be a rogue element wanting the battle at the end of times or maybe to unseat the current president of iran? :unsure:

 

The concept of a 'rogue element' is unnecessary.

 

The renewed US sanctions have hurt Iran badly and the country has recently been complaining about the lack of effort by other countries to develop attractive mechanisms to circumvent these sanctions. The spade of attacks on tankers is squarely aimed at these European and Asian nations. Iran is reminding them what it can do when it is neglected: high energy prices, reduced economic growth.

 

Iran probably estimates the US government is bound by the desire to keep things quiet with the upcoming elections and Trump's promises not to dive into a new foreign adventure. If the US would decide to respond with force, Iran can quickly ramp it up to a tanker war, which implies high prices at the gas station, foreign condemnations and a renewed US involved conflict in the Middle East with no clear ending without substantial US concessions and loss of face for Trump during an election campaign.

 

Of course Iran will incur substantial costs if it would choose to escalate, but game theory learns that a seemingly irrational position may lead to substantial payoffs if the opponent blinks first.

 

 

hm, put that way it makes sense. Reminds me of North Korean tactics to squeeze concessions from its neighbours and the USA.

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note that Iran is holding the other crew which means that the crew has information that Iran doesn't want to come to light. They may be able to buy their silence or get it with threats. Either way, a quicker release is better for the crew and worse for Iran.

I look for Iran to hold them as long as they can

The USN has released a timeline, which has some interesting information:

 

At 9:26 a.m. local time the Iranians requested that the motor vessel Hyundai Dubai, which had rescued the sailors from the M/T Altair, to turn the crew over to the Iranian FIACs. The motor vessel Hyundai Dubai complied with the request and transferred the crew of the M/T Altair to the Iranian FIACs.

 

and

 

At 11:05 a.m. local time USS Bainbridge approaches the Dutch tug Coastal Ace, which had rescued the crew of twenty-one sailors from the M/T Kokuka Courageous who had abandoned their ship after discovering a probable unexploded limpet mine on their hull following an initial explosion.

While the Hendijan patrol boat appeared to attempt to get to the tug Coastal Ace before USS Bainbridge, the mariners were rescued by USS Bainbridge at the request of the master of the M/T Kokuka Courageous.

 

So, Iran successfully 'requested' a hand over of the crew of the M/T Altair and seems to have intended to capture the crew of the M/T Kokuka Courageous, but failed.

Edited by Daan
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Im guessing that something that far above the waterline is an ATGM, perhaps fired by a Boghammar. Although all the footage so far has been shit, so its pretty hard to make any determination about what happened.

That's roughly a man height standing in a small boat.

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The attack is conveniently close to Iranian waters and far from most of the traffic:

 

That's interesting, it would be useful to know who plotted the course of the two ships. Were they led to the attackers? Have they exploded themselves? As half of the crews in Iran, half in US hands, maybe we will know.

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The attack is conveniently close to Iranian waters and far from most of the traffic:

 

That's interesting, it would be useful to know who plotted the course of the two ships. Were they led to the attackers? Have they exploded themselves? As half of the crews in Iran, half in US hands, maybe we will know.

To see whether or not the course is abnormal or not would really require seeing the movements of commercial ships for the whole day, each day of the week for around the previous 2-4 weeks. The picture is just one instant of time in a single day. The plotted course does look to appear to avoid Fujairah port. As a ship not going into the busy port, probably makes sense to stay clear of it, keep speed at constant pace rather than have to reduce and dodge the ships in the congested area.

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