Inf Treaty

[Roman Alymov]

Old maps - RSD-10\SS-20 reach from Kostroma region

 

and from Chukotka

[Stuart Galbraith]

They were forward deploying SS20 as far west as the Baltic states. Wouldnt surprise me if they could have reached Newfoundland from there.

[Josh]

How Trump left the treaty was bad diplomacy. But that the Russians were breaking it goes back to Obama years. But the thing is, as a sea power, theres little The US has to gain. The only win I can see is if the US redeploys tomahawks, and the only country that would host them is Poland. Now Im all for that if the admin and poles are, but I dont think thats going to happen. End of the day, the INF treaty was much more limiting to a land power than a sea power, and Id rather have had it in place to make the Russians look like the obvious bad guy rather than preemptively leave.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Trump left the treaty, less to free his hands, more to make a point. And whilst 90 percent of that point is basically saying 'Look at me, im the God Emperor!', when he says that the US has no reason to stay in a treaty the other side is breaking, I can put my hand on my heart and agree with him. He is right. Staying in it is just pretending Russia respects the treaty which it hasnt for years.

 

As for what can be done, well there is no reason to go back to land based cruise, I think its a waste of time. Im all for forward basing heavy bombers in England with cruise missiles as part of a INF force. Or happily basing those SSGN Ohio's out the UK. Or even revive the arsenal ship concept. That could be nice and cheap, and no reason why it has to be particularly vulnerable.

 

In one respect, INF is irrelevant. If the Russians felt like atomizing Europe, they could right now anyway. The only fly in the ointment is we are back to decoupling nuclear use from strategic use. Back in the 1980's that was a concern for Europeans that America may do it. Now its a concern Russia may do it. But if Russia ever crosses the nuclear threshold, I dont really think we are going to give much of a damn how they do it anyway.

[GARGEAN]

But that the Russians were breaking it goes back to Obama years.

?

[Stuart Galbraith]

When they were testing the new range of Cruise missiles that Russia says it is to put in service. INF banned even the testing of such weapons. One might dispute it, but it would probably be resolved in a detailed inspection to ensure they are in compliance, and not packing an ultra large warhead as Russia claims. This has been refused.

 

Now Russia threatens Romania.

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-demands-u-s-destroy-missile-defense-system-in-romania-military-drones/29758623.html

Russia says the United States should destroy its MK-41 missile-defense launch system deployed in NATO-member Romania in order to return to compliance with a landmark Cold War-era nuclear treaty.

The Russian Defense Ministry also said on February 7 that Washington should destroy its unmanned aerial vehicles for the same reason.

The U.S. Embassy's military attache was handed a note containing Moscow's demand after being summoned to the ministry.

Russia suspended the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty on February 3, a day after the United States announced it would withdraw in six months unless Moscow ended what it says were violations of the pact. Moscow denies violating the treaty.

The missile-defense system located in Deveselu, in southern Romania, is technically known as Aegis Ashore. It was inaugurated in May 2016 and is tasked with shooting down rockets as part of a larger defense shield.

In response, Romanian Defense Minister Teodor Melescanu said on February 7 that Aegis Ashore is a strictly defensive system.

Russia's demand "is purely an excuse for its own military programs that directly violate the INF Treaty," Melescanu said, adding that Romania will hold consultations with its allies and will come up with a common position on the issue.

Valery Kuzmin, Russia's envoy to Romania, told a news conference in Bucharest on February 7 that Moscow was not planning any "hostile or unfriendly actions" toward Romania.

However, since Romania hosts the U.S. missile-defense system on its territory, "it cannot be overlooked by the Russian defense planning," Kuzmin said in response to an RFE/RL reporter's question.

[Roman Alymov]

 

Now Russia threatens Romania.

................................

Valery Kuzmin, Russia's envoy to Romania, told a news conference in Bucharest on February 7 that Moscow was not planning any "hostile or unfriendly actions" toward Romania.

 

However, since Romania hosts the U.S. missile-defense system on its territory, "it cannot be overlooked by the Russian defense planning," Kuzmin said in response to an RFE/RL reporter's question.

I wonder how it amounts to "threatens". Let me remind you your own words: "I live 20 miles away from a Major USAF Base. About 25 from a major RAF Airforce Base. If there is ever a major war with Russia, im soot on a wall." ( http://www.tank-net.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=38972&p=1412908) Isn't it logical that Romanians living next to strategic US Base are in the same situation, and it is reasonable to remind them about it before it is too late?

[Stuart Galbraith]

Since Romanians strike me as not particularly stupid people, I hardly think they need the reminder. It says more about how the Kremlin feels it needs to intimidate people along its borders, than it does about the utility about on shore Aegis or Russian Strike capabilities.

Edited February 8, 2019 by Stuart Galbraith

[Roman Alymov]

Since Romanians strike me as not particularly stupid people, I hardly think they need the reminder. It says more about how the Kremlin feels it needs to intimidate people along its borders, than it does about the utility about on shore Aegis or Russian Strike capabilities.

Let me quote last phrase from your post above: "Kuzmin said in response to an RFE/RL reporter's question." so as we see it is not Russia " intimidating people along its borders" but reporter of RFE/RL, United States government-funded organization, asking stupid questions. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radio_Free_Europe/Radio_Liberty

[Roman Alymov]

Israel expert talking about bases and other things

[Dawes]

Ah, those Cold War days. NATO vs Warsaw Pact. I would almost prefer that era to the ISIS/Taliban/Islamic terrorism of today.

[Stuart Galbraith]

I remember one astute commentator saying in 1991 that we may soon miss the cold war. How smart that was. For all the terror of going to sleep at night in the early 1980's, at least the world was, compared to today, blessedly stable. Now we have islamic terrorism, and the Cold Wars mini me brother back as well.

[sunday]

You forgot Communist/SJW/PETA trolls on the internet.

[Stuart Galbraith]

That too.

 

About a million years ago I did a college course on Communication Theory, and they showed a model of disruption and how it affects information flow. I never realized quite how prescient it would be.

[lastdingo]

I remember one astute commentator saying in 1991 that we may soon miss the cold war. How smart that was. For all the terror of going to sleep at night in the early 1980's, at least the world was, compared to today, blessedly stable. Now we have islamic terrorism, and the Cold Wars mini me brother back as well.

 

The 1990's were the golden decade - especially so the years between the coup attempt in Moscow and 9/11.

 

You can see this even in art; nowadays we have more post-apocalyptic TV shows and movies than even in the 1980's, the decade of thermonuclear sword of damocles in a lighted room. The 1990's were extremely fun.

[Stuart Galbraith]

The music in the 1990's was predominantly shit. Its usually a case that when mankind is on the abyss of something, he usually starts making good music or culture, perhaps to distract himself. Look at the early 1980s music scene and you will see what I mean.

[Dawes]

As far as the music scene, I would agee with Stuart wholeheartedly. But then I'm "comfortably middle aged"

[JWB]

The music in the 1990's was predominantly shit. Its usually a case that when mankind is on the abyss of something, he usually starts making good music or culture, perhaps to distract himself. Look at the early 1980s music scene and you will see what I mean.

As compared to the 1980s?

[Stuart Galbraith]

Music in the early 1980's was great. Certainly in Europe in any case.

[sunday]

Case in point:

[Dawes]

I was stationed in the UK from 1980-1983. I remember a TV show called "Top of the Pops" (I think it was called) that featured a lot of the new bands at that time.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Yeah I remember that. There was a LOT of good music around then, much of it nuclear oriented. Look through this playlist and you will see my point.

 

Im reminded of that line in the third man, I forget exactly how it goes, where Orson Welles talks about how Switzerland had a thousand years of peace, and only got the Cuckoo clock. He had a point.

[sunday]

(...)

 

Im reminded of that line in the third man, I forget exactly how it goes, where Orson Welles talks about how Switzerland had a thousand years of peace, and only got the Cuckoo clock. He had a point.

 

That Harry Lime speech helped me understand the Chinese curse about interesting times.

[JWB]

Music in the early 1980's was great. Certainly in Europe in any case.

 

Music in the early 1980's was great. Certainly in Europe in any case.

OK in Europe perhaps. In the USA pop was dreck.

[Dawes]

In the US in the early 1980's, "New Wave" was the current trend (Blondie, The Cars, The Pretenders, The Motels, Missing Persons, etc). Disco had pretty much seen it's day by then.

 

The Punk scene was there too, with The Ramones, Sex Pistols, B-52's.

Edited February 10, 2019 by Dawes