Venezuela Getting Hotter

[sunday]

Sorry.

np

 

Back on topic, Marcos Pérez Jiménez was a major figure in recent Venezuelan history. Unfortunately, it is very difficult to find a biography of him, online or otherwise, in English, and Wikipedia's has been subjected to assault by Chavistas.

 

Here is a brief one.

Edited February 12, 2019 by sunday

[sunday]

Some SAM equipment in the proximities of San Cristóbal, near the Colombian border, according to the video uploader. San Cristóbal is close to that bridge that was blocked with a tank trailer and two shipping containers.

 

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1095346929662377985

[Stuart Galbraith]

Strategic AIr Command is going to be awfully upset.

[Roman Alymov]

Some SAM equipment in the proximities of San Cristóbal, near the Colombian border, according to the video uploader. San Cristóbal is close to that bridge that was blocked with a tank trailer and two shipping containers.

 

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1095346929662377985

 

About S-125 'Pechora-2M' (Air Defence System).

[Stuart Galbraith]

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-aid-to-provide-life-saving-assistance-for-venezuelans

 

The UK is providing an emergency aid package to treat malnourished children, and provide vaccinations and clean water to the most vulnerable communities affected by the Venezuela crisis, International Development Secretary Penny Mordaunt announced today (12 February).

Hyperinflation in Venezuela is now at an all-time high, exceeding one million percent at the end of 2018. This has resulted in economic collapse with many Venezuelans being unable to afford food or other basic necessities. As the situation has deteriorated further, millions of people have had no choice but to flee to neighbouring countries to survive.

International Development Secretary Penny Mordaunt said:

I am deeply disturbed by the awful scenes of suffering in Venezuela as a result of the Maduro regime’s reckless mismanagement, with families resorting to eating rotting food to try to survive. UK aid will provide life-saving treatment to malnourished children, immunisations against deadly diseases and access to clean water and sanitation.

While the UK has stepped up by providing urgent relief, all parties must immediately recognise the severity of the crisis and allow unhindered access for aid agencies.

In Venezuela and across neighbouring countries, today’s UK aid support will:

• respond to the most severe health and nutrition needs by supporting emergency rooms and maternity wards, providing vaccines and vital nutrition for children and improving water supply and sanitation;
• ensure people fleeing their homes have access to critical support, including through the provision of mobile health clinics;
• help meet the immediate needs of those forced to flee Venezuela, who are at greater risk of exploitation, by offering migrants access to personal documentation and information on how to access basic services.

[rmgill]

We could send PMC's with suitcases of cash and Drones to drop leaflets as SEAD systems in Columbia.

[Simon Tan]

Why is there crippling fuel shortages? It is all being sold on the black market to Colombia and Brazil because the stuff is practically free thanks to hyperinflation. If you can get some from state sources. Cash is pretty useless even in forex since there is nothing to buy.

Libya learned fast to become the failed state it is. It was a lot less fail under Gaddafi than Venezuela is under Maduro.

Unfortunately the agents of regime change have track records like the Contras.

Madre de dios, why can they not get competent people to do this?

[Cinaruco]

 

The Maduristas and the Guaidoistas. The ones who took power and the ones who used to have power. The military and security forces are fractured and weak. The economy is practically non existent. Simply not enough combat power to force a quick if ugly campaign. Expect the Maduristas to distribute weapons to their militias. So shades of Anbar or Sadr City.

Venezuela isn't Libya, for starters isn't particularly tribal and the factions aren't that ideologically diverse. The only thing that really distinguish Maduro faction from Guaido factions is how beholden the first are to foreign actors -China, Cuba, Russia-. There won't be a bursting blood bath but a prolonged and simmering unrest. For the level of savagery you see in Mexico or Colombia you need decades of drug traffic and lawlessness and i'm telling you, Venezuelans aren't there yet.

 

Venezuela is more violent than Mexico and Colombia, and Brazil, and Lybia, and Syria.

[Roman Alymov]

 

Venezuela isn't Libya, for starters isn't particularly tribal and the factions aren't that ideologically diverse. The only thing that really distinguish Maduro faction from Guaido factions is how beholden the first are to foreign actors -China, Cuba, Russia-. There won't be a bursting blood bath but a prolonged and simmering unrest. For the level of savagery you see in Mexico or Colombia you need decades of drug traffic and lawlessness and i'm telling you, Venezuelans aren't there yet.

 

 

 

Venezuela is more violent than Mexico and Colombia, and Brazil, and Lybia, and Syria.

 

One of our team members was working in Nicaragua for some time. On their security briefing they were told “You are lucky you are not in Venezuela. Here you are just robbed at gunpoint – while in Venezuela you are first shot dead and then your corpse is searched for valuables”

[Nobu]

I fully expect the US to fuck up the installation of a puppet government and disappoint Venezuelans who kick out Maduro. How do you stabilize a country with no functioning economy?

 

You don't, at least not without a long-term nation-building commitment, which leads one to believe Bolton, Pence, and Rubio are bluffing when it comes to the military option. The absence of Trump from that list is conspicuous, as he will be the one who must sign off on the bill for it and also the one ultimately responsible for explaining U.S. military KIA to America and Americans in accomplishing it.

 

Bolivarian militia in Caracas

 

There was nothing in that video reminiscent of "the West" or "Western" in any way.

Edited February 12, 2019 by Nobu

[sunday]

Why is there crippling fuel shortages? It is all being sold on the black market to Colombia and Brazil because the stuff is practically free thanks to hyperinflation. If you can get some from state sources. Cash is pretty useless even in forex since there is nothing to buy.

Libya learned fast to become the failed state it is. It was a lot less fail under Gaddafi than Venezuela is under Maduro.

Unfortunately the agents of regime change have track records like the Contras.

Madre de dios, why can they not get competent people to do this?

 

A reason for the fuel shortages could be that the only refineries able to process Venezuelan crude are in the US Gulf Coast and in China. It is a very heavy and sour crude. The refineries in Venezuela could not work reliably, because of malfunctions, lack of catalyzers, etc.

 

A source in Spanish.

 

Edited to add: More news pieces on refinery outgages.

Edited February 12, 2019 by sunday

[RETAC21]

 

The Maduristas and the Guaidoistas. The ones who took power and the ones who used to have power. The military and security forces are fractured and weak. The economy is practically non existent. Simply not enough combat power to force a quick if ugly campaign. Expect the Maduristas to distribute weapons to their militias. So shades of Anbar or Sadr City.

Venezuela isn't Libya, for starters isn't particularly tribal and the factions aren't that ideologically diverse. The only thing that really distinguish Maduro faction from Guaido factions is how beholden the first are to foreign actors -China, Cuba, Russia-. There won't be a bursting blood bath but a prolonged and simmering unrest. For the level of savagery you see in Mexico or Colombia you need decades of drug traffic and lawlessness and i'm telling you, Venezuelans aren't there yet.

 

 

This, in contrast to Lybians, Venezuelans do feel they are Venezuelans first. It's not the first time the country has hit rock bottom

 

In the end the military, which in contrast to other countries of the area, has a tradition of subordination to civilan power, will decide who's legitimate, which is why Maduro is hitting all barracks he can.

[sunday]

Now, in the crazy politicians front, Maduro's VP, one Delcy Rodríguez, has stated that US humanitarian aid gives cancer.

 

https://puntodecorte.com/la-ayuda-humanitaria-ahora-da-cancer-dice-delcy-rodriguez/

Edited February 12, 2019 by sunday

[toysoldier]

 

 

The Maduristas and the Guaidoistas. The ones who took power and the ones who used to have power. The military and security forces are fractured and weak. The economy is practically non existent. Simply not enough combat power to force a quick if ugly campaign. Expect the Maduristas to distribute weapons to their militias. So shades of Anbar or Sadr City.

 

Venezuela isn't Libya, for starters isn't particularly tribal and the factions aren't that ideologically diverse. The only thing that really distinguish Maduro faction from Guaido factions is how beholden the first are to foreign actors -China, Cuba, Russia-. There won't be a bursting blood bath but a prolonged and simmering unrest. For the level of savagery you see in Mexico or Colombia you need decades of drug traffic and lawlessness and i'm telling you, Venezuelans aren't there yet.

Venezuela is more violent than Mexico and Colombia, and Brazil, and Lybia, and Syria.

Well come back to me when they name a sick type of execution or torture after Venezuela. "Ensacado de Angostura" or "Corbata Maracucha". If all they do is shoot yoy for your valuables you are not Mexico level yet.

[Simon Tan]

You...you....stop casting shade on Mexico. Guaidistas are going to be more beholden to Sam than the Maduristas are to their foreign powers. In many ways Venezuela was and still is. The dependence on the US vis a vis crude exports and Citgo was not corrected under the good years of Chavismo.

Regime change is something that Washington loves but is simply unable to do properly.

[toysoldier]

Oh Guaido would love to be beholden to the right USA admin, Hillary or Pelosi.

And now i'll leave you to feverishly crave your Far Cry scenario How you gonna call it? Far Cry Ocho: Barquisimeto Crisis?

Edited February 13, 2019 by toysoldier

[Simon Tan]

Far Cry:NarcoPetroMundo. You wanna do voice acting for Commandante Castro, boss of the Cubanos?

[toysoldier]

Far Cry:NarcoPetroMundo. You wanna do voice acting for Commandante Castro, boss of the Cubanos?

I wish, but there are already a lot of comedians in Miami doing quite good Castro impressions Some of the best aren't even Cuban.

[sunday]

That is unfair - there are other FPS games other than Far Cry.

[Simon Tan]

The scale and size of the Maracaibo Basin is perfect for having boats, helos and even minisubs.

But what Venezuela needs is a Marshall Plan to rebuild its petrochemical base and use that to springboard the region. Tragically Sen Rubio is not up to it.

[sunday]

Better US loans than PRC loans. Also Citgo should be profitable even as of today.

[sunday]

Interview with Enrique Aristeguieta, a Venezuelan lawyer with a long track of public service, in Spanish. Interesting insights.

 

http://www.sinpostureo.com/entrevistas/enrique-aristeguieta-amnistia-a-maduro-jamas/

[Stuart Galbraith]

BBC's interview with Madruo. He's madder than a box of frogs.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-47209526

[sunday]

Madurista propaganda on Twitter, also in Spanish. I think all those links in Spanish could be easily made understandable in English by using one of the online translators available.

 

https://elpais.com/tecnologia/2019/02/07/actualidad/1549571078_716504.html?id_externo_rsoc=TW_CM

[Stuart Galbraith]

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/429575-inhofe-us-military-may-have-to-intervene-in-venezuela-if-russia-does

The chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee said Tuesday morning that the U.S. military may have to intervene in Venezuela if Russia places weapons there.

“I think that it could happen,” Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.) told the Defense Writers Group. “You’ve got a guy down there that is killing everybody. You could have him put together a base that Russia would have on our hemisphere. And if those things happen, it may be to the point where we’ll have to intervene with troops and respond.”

When asked by The Hill after the breakfast roundtable what type of military action he thinks is appropriate, Inhofe said, “Whatever is necessary should they bring in some armaments on our hemisphere that would be, in the smart peoples’ opinion, something that would be a threat to the United States of America.”

“Then we have to take whatever action necessary to stop them from doing that,” he added.

A senior Russian diplomat said Monday that Venezuela has not asked the Russian military for assistance.

The Trump administration has been dialing up the pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, whose reelection has been viewed by much of the international community as illegitimate.

As part of that pressure, the Trump administration last month recognized the leader of the country’s National Assembly, Juan Guaidó, as interim president.

President Trump has repeatedly floated the possibility of using U.S. forces to push out Maduro. Earlier this month, he said U.S. military intervention in the country is an “option.”

Speculation over possible U.S. military involvement was raised late last month after national security adviser John Bolton was photographed at a White House press briefing holding a yellow notepad with the words “5,000 troops to Colombia” written on it.

Bolton would not comment on the note, but has said military intervention in Venezuela is not imminent, even as “all options are on the table.”

Last week, the commander of U.S. Southern Command told the Senate Armed Services Committee that the U.S. military is ready to protect Americans and U.S. diplomats in Venezuela “if necessary.”

At the hearing, committee ranking member Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.) warned the commander, Adm. Craig Faller, that Congress must be looped in before any military action.

“Congress must be consulted if there is any military planning action beyond the current planning for the evacuation of U.S. citizens and embassy personnel," Reed said.

On Tuesday, Inhofe said he thinks Trump does not need to consult Congress, but added that the issue is hypothetical.

“I would say consult, but I don’t think it’s necessary,” he told The Hill. “If there is a threat that reaches the threshold of the president having the ability, the constitutional ability of deploying troops, then that’s an unknown. We don’t know right now.”

During the Defense Writers Group roundtable, Inhofe compared the situation in Venezuela to Nicaragua, where in the 1980s the United States backed the Contras against the Cuba-backed Sandinistas.

“I remember so well when Nicaragua was going through this same thing with Cuba,” Inhofe said. “And if we had not taken any steps at all, I don’t know where we’d be. We’d probably still be fighting in Honduras. So I think it depends on where they go and if they decide that they’re going to open up things so that Russia or some other, could be Cuba, probably Russia, would actually have armaments there that would be a threat to our country, yeah we’d have to, not go to war, but use force.”