Venezuela Getting Hotter

[sunday]

Maduro experiences two power failures while giving a press conference. The reaction of his entourage is worthy of observation.

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1094003389351018496

[Stuart Galbraith]

[glenn239]

Roman Just yesterday it was 5 000 ("By May 2018, approximately 5,000 people per day were leaving Venezuela in search of food"), now it is 40 000?‹

 

 

Roman, what is the Russian take on how to proceed in Venezuela? On one hand, the country is mismanaged and in bad shape. Venezuela is not in Russia’s near abroad so hardly constitutes a Ukrainian situation, and aid sent to a corrupt regime could be thrown down the sewer as a total waste, resulting in debacle as a US regime takes power. On the other hand, the US meddles in Ukraine and the desperation of the current government’s situation might allow Russia and China to leverage real policy reform that can turn things around….which way is the wind blowing over there? Sort of looks like a wait-and-see situation to me?

Edited February 9, 2019 by glenn239

[Stuart Galbraith]

Stuart, may I suggest to you to remember that old saying about feeding monsters that dwell under bridges and are fond of goats?

 

I keep being told that. But if someones wrong, the Christian in me keeps thinking its possible to correct them, rather than they utilize vapidity as an operating principle. But I take you point. You cant beat sense into a rock.

[sunday]

Today's news put the figure of Venezuelans crossing daily the border to get provisions in 8,000.

 

 

Stuart, may I suggest to you to remember that old saying about feeding monsters that dwell under bridges and are fond of goats?

 

I keep being told that. But if someones wrong, the Christian in me keeps thinking its possible to correct them, rather than they utilize vapidity as an operating principle. But I take you point. You cant beat sense into a rock.

 

 

There are people one can not instruct. Or, when the livelihood of someone depends on being wrong about something, do not expect him to change his stance by reasoning with him.

Edited February 9, 2019 by sunday

[seahawk]

There are countless countries in Africa, where food is scare and drugs are not available to all, do you want to enforce a regime change in all of them?

[sunday]

There are countless countries in Africa, where food is scare and drugs are not available to all, do you want to enforce a regime change in all of them?

 

Your point, pretty please?

[seahawk]

Because there might be a shortage of food or drugs (according to western media only), is no reason to remove Maduro. There are many other countries with similar problems, starting with North Korea.

[sunday]

Because there might be a shortage of food or drugs (according to western media only), is no reason to remove Maduro. There are many other countries with similar problems, starting with North Korea.

 

Problem with having trolls (not you) infesting a thread is that things, like the constitutional arguments to declare Maduro in break of law, get glossed over. Maduro is not a legitimate president, according to the current, and Chavista, Venezuelan constitution. So, no regime change ATM.

 

Western media, especially Spanish-speaking media, is closer to the sources. I know sources that are way more reliable that those VESTI users of heroic, proletary, GOST-approved, tin-foil hats.

 

There are countries with similar problems, like North Korea, true. Feel free to contribute to existing threads on those countries, or open a new one if there is none. I would be glad to contribute within my limited means.

Edited February 9, 2019 by sunday

[Josh]

Double post

Edited February 9, 2019 by Josh

[Josh]

 

 

Let me restate: Im in Colombia and have met a well to do Venezuelan lawyer who is a refugee. Medicine is not available and food is sparse, even assuming you can pay for it. She ships pharmaceuticals there instead of cash, because no amount of cash will get you anything plus the government cracks down on anyone not using bolivars. At this point you need the equivalent weight of bolivars to buy food, and indeed some merchants now weigh cash instead of counting it. This is real and happening now.

[Stuart Galbraith]

There are countless countries in Africa, where food is scare and drugs are not available to all, do you want to enforce a regime change in all of them?

 

Sure, why not? If we dont, they have massacres, mass starvation and the refugees end up as asylum seekers our door and fuck our cosy little nations up. Ive lost account of how many times we have sat on our hands and witnessed this happen.

 

Sooner or later we will stop wringing our hands with liberal angst about whether we have the 'right' to do it or not, and just get on with it. Democracy wins, or its goes under. Its that simple.

[rmgill]

Because there might be a shortage of food or drugs (according to western media only), is no reason to remove Maduro. There are many other countries with similar problems, starting with North Korea.

After WWII, there was a shortage of food and medicine. Was the Marshall plan a bad idea?

[seahawk]

 

Because there might be a shortage of food or drugs (according to western media only), is no reason to remove Maduro. There are many other countries with similar problems, starting with North Korea.

After WWII, there was a shortage of food and medicine. Was the Marshall plan a bad idea?

 

 

From an allied perspective, absolutely yes. Germany has gained economic hegemony over Gerrmany, is sucking US money through the trade surplus and is unwilling to shoulder its responsibility.

[Roman Alymov]

 

Roman, what is the Russian take on how to proceed in Venezuela?

Official position of Russia is Maduro legitimate President etc., i think it is well covered by some of media reports i show here from time to time. If you mean "What is Russian public take on how to proceed in Venezuela?" - i'm afraid it is equivalent of asking " What is US public take on how to proceed on Trump". Opinions are different - for example one of our restoration tram members, man of known liberal views, almost daily writes in his Facebook how he wish Maduro fall and take Putin with him to hell (few weeks ago, he was writing how he wish to see Yellow Wests on the streets of Moscow, before that he was supporting Maidan and so on). On opposite side of political spectrum, people whom Stuart call "Russian nationalists" (despite often they are no nationalists neither Russian in ethnic meaning of this word - but let's keep this name for now) are asking questions "Why do we officially support Maduro both politically and with investments while failing to do this for Donbass". Majority, i think, do not care at all despite all efforts of media to educate public about different aspects of Venezuela situation. Right now when i am writing it they are showing report from Caracas favellas, interviewing gang members.

My personal take - Russia would support Maduro politically as long as it is possible - and then when US finally overthrow him (it is question of time) will use it as case to point to on international arena as another regime change\intervention. Of course it is not going to change much, but it is another stone taken out from "moral high ground" West is supposing to have. Even Ukrainian political analysts now joke "It is not important whom voters will vote for during the day, not even in whose favor election commissions would count votes overnight - what matters is whom Trump will give victory in his Twitter in the morning".

 

 

On one hand, the country is mismanaged and in bad shape. Venezuela is not in Russia’s near abroad so hardly constitutes a Ukrainian situation, and aid sent to a corrupt regime could be thrown down the sewer as a total waste, resulting in debacle as a US regime takes power. On the other hand, the US meddles in Ukraine and the desperation of the current government’s situation might allow Russia and China to leverage real policy reform that can turn things around….which way is the wind blowing over there? Sort of looks like a wait-and-see situation to me?

 

Most of countries on the globe are mismanaged and in bad shape. Actually countries doing good are rare exceptions. Russian investments in Venezuela are quite limited - and even if they lost, it was way more useful to "sell" weapons to Venezuela than just investing in US Treasury bonds as our liberal Government do, de-facto sponsoring US. At least, Russian workers were paid for producing this stuff, not US bankers.

 

P.S. Russian media take from International contact group meeting

 

and reports of US troops arriving

https://www.activistpost.com/2019/02/us-southern-command-colombia-venezuela-military-moves-us-pulls-out-inf-treaty-russia-threatens-us-china-calls-calm.html

Edited February 9, 2019 by Roman Alymov

[JasonJ]

 

Stuart, may I suggest to you to remember that old saying about feeding monsters that dwell under bridges and are fond of goats?

 

I keep being told that. But if someones wrong, the Christian in me keeps thinking its possible to correct them, rather than they utilize vapidity as an operating principle. But I take you point. You cant beat sense into a rock.

A message from the dead,

 

Two both of you,

 

The putting on ignore or just simply not feeding a troll only works with short term trolls or certain non-troll posters who just annoys you because the target typical does not engage over the long term.

 

Putting him on ignore leaves missing the context of the whole situation whenever you yourself post, thus risk losing one's own credibility.

 

Not putting him on ignore and just simply not responding to him gives him the stage undisputed over the long term and some others will continue to engage with him, raising his prominance since he has no shame in exploiting various human emotions to garner support and than apply troll tactics in stratigic way and timing to serve his absolute Pro-Russia agenda, ie propaganda campaign. In effect, the long term troll-spammer gets you to silence your voice.

 

Ban his ass.

[AETiglathPZ]

 

 

Stuart, may I suggest to you to remember that old saying about feeding monsters that dwell under bridges and are fond of goats?

I keep being told that. But if someones wrong, the Christian in me keeps thinking its possible to correct them, rather than they utilize vapidity as an operating principle. But I take you point. You cant beat sense into a rock.

A message from the dead,

 

Two both of you,

 

The putting on ignore or just simply not feeding a troll only works with short term trolls or certain non-troll posters who just annoys you because the target typical does not engage over the long term.

 

Putting him on ignore leaves missing the context of the whole situation whenever you yourself post, thus risk losing one's own credibility.

 

Not putting him on ignore and just simply not responding to him gives him the stage undisputed over the long term and some others will continue to engage with him, raising his prominance since he has no shame in exploiting various human emotions to garner support and than apply troll tactics in stratigic way and timing to serve his absolute Pro-Russia agenda, ie propaganda campaign. In effect, the long term troll-spammer gets you to silence your voice.

 

Ban his ass.

 

You want to ban someone because they have a totally oppossite political viewpoint than you. The person, in a hypothetical WW3, would absolutely root for Team Soviet Union Dos.

 

Since when was it in the Tank-net RoE that a person had to agree with the politics and political ambitions of the USA and NATO? It is not like he had to take a Oath, twice, and Pledge Allegiance to the Flag of the USA.

 

You sound like one of those liberal girls as soon as they find a MAGA hat wearing male friend says something Pro-Trump on their Facebook timeline and they pat themselves on the back for de-friending and banning that person right after.

 

Bro, your coming off a little triggered.

[JasonJ]

 

 

 

Stuart, may I suggest to you to remember that old saying about feeding monsters that dwell under bridges and are fond of goats?

 

I keep being told that. But if someones wrong, the Christian in me keeps thinking its possible to correct them, rather than they utilize vapidity as an operating principle. But I take you point. You cant beat sense into a rock.

A message from the dead,

Two both of you,

The putting on ignore or just simply not feeding a troll only works with short term trolls or certain non-troll posters who just annoys you because the target typical does not engage over the long term.

Putting him on ignore leaves missing the context of the whole situation whenever you yourself post, thus risk losing one's own credibility.

Not putting him on ignore and just simply not responding to him gives him the stage undisputed over the long term and some others will continue to engage with him, raising his prominance since he has no shame in exploiting various human emotions to garner support and than apply troll tactics in stratigic way and timing to serve his absolute Pro-Russia agenda, ie propaganda campaign. In effect, the long term troll-spammer gets you to silence your voice.

Ban his ass.

You want to ban someone because they have a totally oppossite political viewpoint than you. The person, in a hypothetical WW3, would absolutely root for Team Soviet Union Dos.

 

Since when was it in the Tank-net RoE that a person had to agree with the politics and political ambitions of the USA and NATO? It is not like he had to take a Oath, twice, and Pledge Allegiance to the Flag of the USA.

 

You sound like one of those liberal girls as soon as they find a MAGA hat wearing male friend says something Pro-Trump on their Facebook timeline and they pat themselves on the back for de-friending and banning that person right after.

 

Bro, your coming off a little triggered.

So you've signed up a long time ago but you have never been active in the many past debates, particularly those between Roman and others and now suddenly you take a great interest in this matter? Either a closet Roman backer or some person that is eager to prove his worth on a the board.

 

You're post is all fluff and with no substance, and with no historical posting to back up your claim that I am as what you describe. But for starters, I have made numourous post in support of opposition. Afterall that is a key componant to a functioning democracy and I do not violate that. However, we all have other things to do, and it is not fair ti be drawn into the role of playing debunk the the troll on a daily basis. I have nothing personal against Roman, only his posting. If he would change by reducing troll activity, reducing spam activity, ane conceding a fair point when rightfully deserved, then he would a be excellent contributor to the forums.

 

Naturally there are two sides to a coin and even his propaganda campaign still contains valid and important points of one side of the coin. The Syria thread is the best example of many valid points that only western media would leave us terribly uninformed about the situation in entirety. But the price in having to pay in order to receive valuable posts about that one side should not be tolerance of an entire troll campaign. I would think the benefit to himself in clearing Russia's reputation regarding Syria would be sufficient. But he goes all out with Maduro, China, the Ukraine, etc. Personal reward should not be set at that. But maybe its an institutional term of reward...

[sunday]

I think there is a ROE about posting Revisionist, of the David Irving type, content in Tank Net.

[R011]

Ffs. Simply expressing contrary opinions is not, to my knowledge, a banning offense here. I suspect the fact that Moderator has not seen fit to appear to issue fearsome warnings several times is indicative.

 

If Stuart and/or Roman annoy you, ignore them. Either put them on ignore or skip their posts in threads where they get annoying.

[sunday]

On behaviors, Stuart's could be mildly annoying, but Roman's is downright destructive.

Edited February 10, 2019 by sunday

[sunday]

(...)

Since when was it in the Tank-net RoE that a person had to agree with the politics and political ambitions of the USA and NATO? It is not like he had to take a Oath, twice, and Pledge Allegiance to the Flag of the USA.

 

(...)

 

Have a look here.

 

[Gregory]

Ffs. Simply expressing contrary opinions is not, to my knowledge, a banning offense here. I suspect the fact that Moderator has not seen fit to appear to issue fearsome warnings several times is indicative.

 

If Stuart and/or Roman annoy you, ignore them. Either put them on ignore or skip their posts in threads where they get annoying.

 

Expressing contrary opinion is not - and should not - be a bannable offense. There are several posters whom I have on ignore because of their opinions, which I consider to be valueless but I wouldn't dream of petitioning for their banning. Roman, however, is not simply contrary - he persistently floods selected topics with low grade or borderline irrelevant information. It's my belief he does it on purpose to suppress discussion. That kind of behavior is deserving of a ban.

[sunday]

Heavily loaded semitrailers exiting Central Bank of Venezuela, under escort.

 

https://twitter.com/freddyzur/status/1094340400159051776

[Cinaruco]

Venezuelans have convinced themselves that the US is going to oust Maduro by any means, even by invasion. Social media is filled with experts comparing what is happening right now with what happened in Grenada and Panama, and that is wishful thinking at its best. Personally I laugh whenever I see this triumphalism, if only out of my natural nihilism. Some barrios in Venezuela are larger than Panama. This has taken me completely by surprise, not that Maduro was illegitimate or a dictator but that the US went in and backed Guaido. He would not have declared Maduro as an Usurper (yeah, I am going with that terminology) otherwise.

 

But no matter how much Venezuelans on social media believe it, Operation Venezuelan Freedom will not happen.

 

I like Guaido. Seems likeable enough, well schooled, nice family, his father is an exile that used to be an airline pilot, that now works as a taxi driver. The people love him, and fully back him, yet he comes from the same opposition that has actively worked to keep Maduro in power for the last decade. I am reassured by the Hawks over at DC speaking that Maduro's days are at an end, because that is the only factor that matters in the Venezuela equation. Guaido himself has little power, and his protection lies only on America's deterrence.

 

The US seems to be gambling it all on the military, on a large portion of it, breaking from Maduro and a coup happening. Several attempts have already taken place, so this is actually a very sane and practical approach. Even if only a small portion of troops manage to secure a single base, and manage to hold it enough to secure it and arm the population, the crude ingredients for regime change are there.

 

After all the purges and years of indoctrination, however, I believe that enough of the military will remain loyal to Maduro for a civil war scenario. Most of the firepower is located in central Venezuela, the armor division they bought from Russia, plus the Marine division they bought from China. There are tens of thousands of militia, paramilitary and narco shooters at the orders of the Regime as well, and they have two digit SAMs.

 

What the US is doing now is setting up stockpiling centers in Colombia and Brazil for humanitarian aid, so they are setting up a showdown. My guess Guaido will ask for the humanitarian aid to enter the country, and the trucks will roll and the Guards will either gas them or not. If this happens, we will have a civil war. The military high command will have chosen Maduro, and enough of the lower ranks will join him to ensure a fight will happen in the event of any coup.

 

Ideally Guaido should have appointed a Minister of Defense in exile to set up training of forces, and distribution of resources, in this early phase. Some people are optimistic this will end peacefully. I am not one of these. Venezuela's situation is more similar to me to that of Spain in 1936, than Chile in 1973.

 

Even if its a short civil war Venezuela is one of the most violent countries in the world, in the middle of one of the worst humanitarian crisis in the continent. It will be a bloodbath. At least I managed to get most of my family out to the US. I am staying as long as the US embassy stays.

Edited February 10, 2019 by Cinaruco