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Posted

The real problem about mortality rate is that since most infected seem to develop only symptoms of a mild cold, at best the flu (in flu season) and some seem never to fall ill at all, there's probably an unknown but potentially huge number who don't even suspect they are infected, or see a doctor at all. So the ratio of total cases to deaths may be much higher, i. e. mortality much lower than even the currently calculated 0.5 percent outside China.

 

Along the same lines, on the bioweapon thing I fail to see the use of one that kills only 80-year-olds given Western medical standards.

 

Re the bioweapon, a bioweapong that reliably infects and then kills the host is a huge risk for the developper, as it may come back to annihilate your own population. The coronavirus is useful as a temporary suppression weapon, for example, for Taiwan, where it can be unleashed near its army bases and in 20 days wll have most of the military population infected and potentially combat ineffective, giving a small window for invasion with minimal losses.

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Posted

That approach is presupposing strict adherence to the current somewhat overcautious quarantine measures given the severity of the sickness though. If faced with invasion, I suspect Taiwan would rather fight it with an army of coughing soldiers than keep those up. I don't expect a reliable killer, but at least something with a bigger effect than the ordinary seasonal flu.

Posted

Yep, looks like it is an escaped bio-weapon: Much deadlier than any nuclear weapon ever devised, don't those fools know they are playing with fire?

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FRRgKBBmAE

 

Sorry Murph, did you read any of the last few posts? If it's a bioweapon it's an amazingly crap one.

Posted

 

Yep, looks like it is an escaped bio-weapon: Much deadlier than any nuclear weapon ever devised, don't those fools know they are playing with fire?

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FRRgKBBmAE

 

Sorry Murph, did you read any of the last few posts? If it's a bioweapon it's an amazingly crap one.

 

I think it might have been accidentally released too early.

Posted

First death from Taiwan.

 

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The first death in Taiwan from the COVID-19 outbreak was reported to be a male taxi driver over 60 years old with no recent travel history, CNA reported on Sunday (Feb. 16).

 

The man is one of two confirmed cases of COVID-19 on Sunday, according to the latest announcement by the Central Epidemic Command Center (CECC), CNA said. The other case is a family member who lives with him.

 

Minister of Health and Welfare Chen Shih-chung (陳時中) said in a press conference Sunday evening that there were two new confirmed COVID-19 cases, bringing the total in Taiwan to 20, and neither newly infected patient was an intimate contact of an earlier patient, Chen added. The man who died had a history of type B hepatitis and diabetes.

 

The now-deceased man began to cough on Jan. 27, but he did not see a doctor until Feb. 3, when he finally went due to shortness of breath, according to the report. He was diagnosed with pneumonia and then hospitalized in an isolation ward. The man died of sepsis caused by pneumonia on Feb. 15.

 

The health minister said that as the man had no history of traveling to other countries, obtaining a specimen from him was originally not considered, the report said. However, Chen added, considering 50 percent of confirmed cases in Singapore also lacked a travel history, recent overseas excursions should not be the sole criteria for testing for COVID-19.

 

Most of the man's customers were reportedly people who have a history of traveling to China, Hong Kong, and Macao, according to the news agency. Health authorities have begun to trace his contacts, including looking into his communication records, his hospital visits, and even surveillance camera data in the hope of gaining a full handle on his interactions, the report said.

 

Chen said that of the 79 contacts health authorities traced, 73 have been screened for the disease, of whom 60 have been confirmed as negative and one positive. The rest were still being tested, he added.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3877106

Posted

 

The real problem about mortality rate is that since most infected seem to develop only symptoms of a mild cold, at best the flu (in flu season) and some seem never to fall ill at all, there's probably an unknown but potentially huge number who don't even suspect they are infected, or see a doctor at all. So the ratio of total cases to deaths may be much higher, i. e. mortality much lower than even the currently calculated 0.5 percent outside China.

 

Along the same lines, on the bioweapon thing I fail to see the use of one that kills only 80-year-olds given Western medical standards.

 

Re the bioweapon, a bioweapong that reliably infects and then kills the host is a huge risk for the developper, as it may come back to annihilate your own population. The coronavirus is useful as a temporary suppression weapon, for example, for Taiwan, where it can be unleashed near its army bases and in 20 days wll have most of the military population infected and potentially combat ineffective, giving a small window for invasion with minimal losses.

 

 

The IJA had some success with germ warfare in the China theater in the 40s if I recall, but with more of an emphasis on strategic goals than operational.

Posted

Sorry Murph, did you read any of the last few posts? If it's a bioweapon it's an amazingly crap one.

Well, when you have Republican senators spreading these bioweapon conspiracy theories around, it's no surprise that the FFZ Trumpers will gobble it up.

Posted

If it's a bioweapon it's an amazingly crap one.

 

I think we need more info to conclude either way regarding the bioweapon angle, but having said that, an accidental release is entirely consistent with a strain having only weak lethality. I would expect a bioweapon lab to be pursuing many different strains in various states of development, lethality being only one parameter (infectiousness and incubation periods being other interesting parameters). So it would stand to reason that you might want to pursue certain combinations of infectivity, invasiveness, incubation period, and transmission method before going for the final stage product, whatever that might look like in terms of virulence and lethality. So, if indeed this originated in a biolab, it is quite possible it is part of a research strain at a stage where focus may have been more on developing infectiousness and setting the right incubation or prodromal period (where the disease only manifests lightly) than in getting a mass killer. In fact, a less lethal strain is probably subject to less stringent controls and would therefore be more likely to escape (as we are assuming this is an accidental release rather than a 12 Monkeys scenario) than a species exterminator.

 

--

Soren

Posted (edited)

I could believe it is a bioweapon. I could even believe it was deliberately released. For example, In the 1950's there was a British Government program to release a cold bug and monitor its release among the common population. It was deliberately blown on members of the public entering london underground stations. The idea was that by monitoring it via the NHS, they could have an accurate data set of how a biological weapon would transmit among the population (I bet that paper is getting a lot of reading in Whitehall right now, or at least, so I would hope).

 

The problem is, that bug didnt kill anyone. This one does. Though as Chris suggests, its an amazingly crap one. So it falls between two stools. Its NOT safe enough to be a deliberate release as a marker for test. And it doesnt kill enough people to be a battlefield weapon accidentally released. Soooo......

 

Isnt the world troubled enough that right wing media and politicians in America have to pretend its even worse? What the hell is wrong with them?

Edited by Stuart Galbraith
Posted

The real problem about mortality rate is that since most infected seem to develop only symptoms of a mild cold, at best the flu (in flu season) and some seem never to fall ill at all, there's probably an unknown but potentially huge number who don't even suspect they are infected, or see a doctor at all. So the ratio of total cases to deaths may be much higher, i. e. mortality much lower than even the currently calculated 0.5 percent outside China.

 

Along the same lines, on the bioweapon thing I fail to see the use of one that kills only 80-year-olds given Western medical standards.

Well its one way of purging the party of Maoists I suppose. :D

Posted

I couldn't say that its particulaly deadly but I couldn't go as far as saying its crap either. There's no denying that it's doing quite some damage to Hubei province. The place is in lock down to prevent further spreading and is waiting for the current infections to hurry and go away.

Posted (edited)

I wouldn't rule out an accidental release from a lab either, which apparently has happened before in China. I'm just not going for the whole "any deadly virus is a designer bioweapon, any non-deadly virus is an unfinished designer bioweapon" stuff that crops up in any epidemic that makes the news.

 

Chinese research lab denies rumours of links to first coronavirus patient

 

Jun Mai

Published: 9:00pm, 16 Feb, 2020

 

A Chinese virus research institute located at the epicentre of a coronavirus outbreak has denied links to the first patient diagnosed with the disease, amid speculation about the source of the virus.

 

In a statement on Sunday, the Wuhan Institute of Virology denied that one of its employees was the outbreaks patient zero.

 

Recently there has been fake information about Huang Yanling, a graduate from our institute, claiming that she was patient zero in the novel coronavirus, the institute said.

 

It said it had verified that the claim was not true.

 

It said Huang was a graduate student at the institute until 2015, when she left the province and had not returned since. Huang was in good health and had not been diagnosed with disease, it added.

 

The disease, now known as Covid-19, has sickened some 60,000 people around the world and killed more than 1,500, most of them in Hubei province in central China.

 

So far, the first patient with the illness has not been publicly identified.

 

While Chinese researchers and officials say the coronavirus is probably linked to wild animal consumption mostly likely bats, according to Wu Yuanbin, from the Ministry of Science and Technology there have been claims that the virus is associated with a state lab in the City.

 

While there is no evidence to support the claims, new central government regulations covering state biotechnology laboratories have helped fan the speculation.

 

On Saturday, the ministry issued a directive calling for improved management of viruses by all biological labs, and for the facilities to ensure biological safety.

 

Chinese authorities have said the virus is believed to be from a seafood market in Wuhan, after a cluster of patients linked the market were identified in December.

 

But the first patient diagnosed by the virus never visited the market, according to a study published January 24 in The Lancet medical journal.

 

In the paper, the researchers, seven of whom work at Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital, said the first patient had no exposure to the market and there was also no epidemiological link between the first patient and the later cases.

 

The research was based on data from the first 41 patients with confirmed infections.

 

[...]

 

China did have an outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or Sars, due to a leak from a laboratory in 2004, killing one person and infecting nine others, according to state media.

 

Chinese authorities said that the leak was a result of negligence and five senior officials at the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention were punished.

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3050872/chinese-research-lab-denies-rumours-links-first-coronavirus

Edited by BansheeOne
Posted

There's been a surge of cases in South Korea in the last few days, currently at 346.

 

South Korea reported 142 new cases of the new coronavirus on Saturday, the largest spike in a single day since its first outbreak in late January, bringing the total number of infections in the nation to 346.

 

The number of COVID-19 infections here has soared in the past few days, with most infections traced to a hospital in the southeastern county of Cheongdo and a minor Christian sect in the southeastern city of Daegu, which constitute some 80 percent of the total infections here.

 

Daegu, where the 2.5 million inhabitants have been asked to stay indoors, and neighboring Cheongdo were designated as a "special management zone" on Friday.

 

Of the 142 new cases, 92 are related to Daenam Hospital in Cheongdo, where South Korea's first coronavirus fatality occurred, the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said.

 

A 63-year-old man, who died of pneumonia at the hospital on Wednesday, posthumously tested positive for the virus.

 

 

On Friday, another patient died from the coronavirus at a hospital in Busan after being transferred from Daenam Hospital, the second death from the virus in South Korea.

 

The public health agency said 38 new cases are tied to the minor Christian sect known as Sincheonji in Daegu, about 300 kilometers southeast of Seoul, and neighboring North Gyeongsang Province and other areas.

 

So far, a total of 111 virus cases -- nine hospital staff and 102 patients -- have been reported from Daenam Hospital, and so-called cohort isolation, the shutdown of an entire medical institution to prevent the spread of an infectious disease, was in place for the hospital, according to the health authorities.

 

The health authorities said 169 virus patients have been traced to the Shincheonji church's services in Daegu, according to the KCDC.

 

The KCDC said it has placed a total of 9,336 Sincheonji members in self-quarantine. Among them, 544 people suspected of having contracted the virus are being tested for the virus.

 

The country's 31st patient, a probable "super spreader," had attended the church's worship services in Daegu, and the 61-year-old South Korean woman, who tested positive for the virus earlier this week, is believed to have infected others.

 

But the health authorities said earlier that it is uncertain whether the patient is the source of the cluster outbreak.

 

The health authorities vowed to make more containment efforts as the potentially fatal illness spreads fast across the country.

 

The heath ministry said it will allow hospitals to separate respiratory patients from others in an effort to prevent human-to-human transmissions and will also check all pneumonia patients in Daegu hospitals.

 

Despite the surge in the number of infections here, the authorities said they will maintain the virus alert at the third-highest, or "orange," level, but the virus response will be carried out with an urgency appropriate to the "red" level.

 

"Community spread of infections began in some limited areas, and we believe that Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province are in a special situation," Vice Health and Welfare Minister Kim Kang-lip told reporters on Saturday.

 

In a sign that the virus may further spread nationwide, other provinces, including Jeju, Chungcheong and North Jeolla, reported cases. Gyeonggi Province also reported more new cases.

 

Three new virus cases were reported for the first time in Busan, the country's second-largest city with a population of 3.4 million. The city had been regarded as relatively free of the virus outbreak since the country reported the first case of COVID-19 on Jan. 20.

 

So far, South Korea has released 18 fully recovered novel coronavirus patients from hospitals, the KCDC said.

 

The number of people being checked for the virus and under quarantine came to 5,481, up from 3,180 a day earlier, the KCDC said. The country has tested a total of 19,621 suspected cases, with 13,794 testing negative.

 

Most virus-infected patients are stable, but about nine patients with underlying illnesses are in relatively critical conditions, the health authorities said.

http://m.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200222000019

Posted

Very contagious virus.

Number of cases in ROK reported now 433.

 

SEOUL, Feb. 22 (Yonhap) -- South Korea reported 229 new cases of the new coronavirus on Saturday, the largest spike in a single day since its first outbreak in late January, bringing the total number of infections in the nation to 433.

 

 

 

The number of COVID-19 infections here has soared in the past few days, with most infections traced to a hospital in the southeastern county of Cheongdo and a minor Christian sect in the southeastern city of Daegu, which constitute some 80 percent of the total infections here.

 

Daegu, where the 2.5 million inhabitants have been asked to stay indoors, and neighboring Cheongdo were designated as a "special management zone" on Friday.

 

Of the 229 new cases, 95 are related to Daenam Hospital in Cheongdo, where South Korea's first coronavirus fatality occurred, the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said.

 

A 63-year-old man, who died of pneumonia at the hospital on Wednesday, posthumously tested positive for the virus.

 

On Friday, another patient died from the coronavirus at a hospital in Busan after being transferred from Daenam Hospital, the second death from the virus in South Korea.

 

The public health agency said 62 new cases are tied to the minor Christian sect known as Shincheonji in Daegu, about 300 kilometers southeast of Seoul, and neighboring North Gyeongsang Province and other areas.

 

So far, a total of 114 virus cases -- nine hospital staff and 102 patients -- have been reported from Daenam Hospital, and so-called cohort isolation, the shutdown of an entire medical institution to prevent the spread of an infectious disease, was in place for the hospital, according to the health authorities.

 

The health authorities said 231 virus patients have been traced to the Shincheonji church's services in Daegu, according to the KCDC.

 

The KCDC said it has placed a total of 9,336 Shincheonji members in self-quarantine. Among them, 544 people suspected of having contracted the virus are being tested for the virus.

 

The country's 31st patient, a probable "super spreader," had attended the church's worship services in Daegu, and the 61-year-old South Korean woman, who tested positive for the virus earlier this week, is believed to have infected others.

 

But the health authorities said earlier that it is uncertain whether the patient is the source of the cluster outbreak.

 

The health authorities vowed to make more containment efforts as the potentially fatal illness spreads fast across the country.

 

The heath ministry said it will allow hospitals to separate respiratory patients from others in an effort to prevent human-to-human transmissions and will also check all pneumonia patients in Daegu hospitals.

 

Despite the surge in the number of infections here, the authorities said they will maintain the virus alert at the third-highest, or "orange," level, but the virus response will be carried out with an urgency appropriate to the "red" level.

 

"Community spread of infections began in some limited areas, and we believe that Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province are in a special situation," Vice Health and Welfare Minister Kim Kang-lip told reporters on Saturday.

 

In a sign that the virus may further spread nationwide, other provinces, including Jeju, Chungcheong and North Jeolla, reported cases. Gyeonggi Province also reported more new cases.

 

Four virus cases were reported in Busan, South Korea's second-largest city with a population of 3.4 million, the first cases in the city since the country reported the first case of COVID-19 on Jan. 20.

 

So far, South Korea has released 18 fully recovered novel coronavirus patients from hospitals, the KCDC said.

 

The number of people being checked for the virus and under quarantine came to 6,037 up from 5,481 on Saturday morning, KCDC said. The country has tested a total of 21,153 suspected cases, with 15,116 testing negative.

 

Most virus-infected patients are stable, but about nine patients with underlying illnesses are in relatively critical conditions, the health authorities said.

https://m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200222001156320?section=national/national

Posted

Date 21.02.2020

 

Coronavirus: Italy reports first death from COVID-19

 

An elderly man from Padua has died after being infected with the coronavirus. Officials in northern Italy have ordered schools, public buildings, and restaurants to close after a cluster of new infections emerged.

 

An Italian man infected with coronavirus died on Friday, becoming the first death of a European national linked to the deadly illness that has spread across the globe.

 

The elderly man died in a hospital in the northern city of Padua, Italian Health Minister Roberto Speranza said on Friday. He said that the 78-year-old had been in the hospital for 10 days for an unrelated illness.

 

The victim was one of two people who had tested positive for COVID-19 in the Veneto region. Last weekend, France reported the first death in Europe from the virus — a Chinese tourist who had been visiting Paris.

 

Scramble to contain the outbreak

 

Earlier in the day, officials had ordered schools, public buildings, restaurants and coffee shops in ten towns in northern Italy to close after a cluster of 15 other cases emerged.

 

All cases were located in the Lombardy region, where a 38-year-old man fell ill with the virus after meeting someone who returned from China in late January. Five doctors and nurses and several patients were infected at the hospital in Codogno where he was treated.

 

Three other people, who all visited the same cafe in the Lombardy region, also tested positive for the virus.

 

Hundreds of people have been put in isolation and are being tested for the virus, Italian health officials have said. Over 150 co-workers of the 38-year-old, as well as 70 medical staff at Codogna hospital, are among those being tested.

 

The new cases represent the first acquired through secondary contagion in Italy and brought the total number of confirmed cases up to 17.

 

COVID-19 spreads globally

 

The COVID-19 virus has now infected more than 77,000 people worldwide, with China, where the virus originated, by far the worst affected. China has reported some 2,345 deaths, mostly in the central province of Hubei.

 

And while Beijing said new cases of Covid-19 had dropped to 397 on Saturday — down from 889 a day earlier, South Korea reported a major jump in the number of infections, with 228 new cases since Friday, taking the total number of infected to 433.

 

The country, which now has the second-largest number of infections after China, also reported a second death from the virus.

 

Most of the cases in South Korea center around the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, a religious sect in the southern city of Daegu. More than 120 members of the church have been infected.

 

Officials believe that the tally could rise significantly higher, as over 1,000 members of the Shincheonji church reported feeling flu-like symptoms.

Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun called the situation an emergency. The cities of Daegu and Cheongdo have been designated special care zones.

 

Tehran responds to new cases

 

Iran is also struggling to contain the virus within its own borders. Authorities there announced 13 new cases as well as two deaths from the COVID-19 virus on Friday.

 

An Iranian official, a district mayor in Tehran, was also confirmed positive for coronavirus on Saturday, according to state television.

 

Most other cases are linked to the holy city of Qom, but people are infected in other cities too.

 

Lebanon also reported its first case — a 45-year-old woman who had recently traveled to Qom.

 

Authorities in Israel confirmed its first case — a passenger on the virus-stricken Diamond Princess cruise ship. The infected person had initially tested negative to the virus on arrival in Israel.

 

Economic hit for China

 

Speaking with DW, President of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China Jörg Wuttke warned of short- and long-term effects the virus will likely have on the Chinese economy.

 

Supply chain disruption could have greater effects than those seen after the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak, he said.

 

"The economy is going to take a major hit in the first quarter...Transportation is 80% down. Hotels and restaurants are all closed...there is not much activity if any at all. Manufacturing is partially coming back...but the first quarter is basically gone."

 

Nevertheless, he was optimistic that international investors would retain interest in the country.

 

"China is the place to be. There is no second China," he said.

 

Meanwhile, Hubei provincial government said that the coronavirus incubation period could be as long as 27 days. A 70-year-old man in the province was infected with the virus but did not show symptoms until 27 days later, meaning that the virus' incubation period could be much longer than the presumed 14 days.

 

The man, only identified by his family name, Jiang, on January 24 drove his car back to a city in northwestern Hubei from eastern Ezhou, where he was visiting his sister, who had been infected, according to the Hubei government website. He had a fever on February 20 and tested positive for coronavirus a day later, the statement said.

 

A longer incubation period could complicate efforts to contain the spread of the epidemic.

 

School shuts in Japan

 

Japan confirmed four new coronavirus infections on Saturday, as a high school where an infected person taught was closed for two days. The teacher, a woman in her 60s in Chiba prefecture, went to work while showing symptoms. She first showed symptoms on February 12 and was hospitalized on February 19, according to local media. Her school is set to close for two days from February 25.

 

The second case was a woman in her 30s in the same prefecture, who has been hospitalized but is not showing any symptoms, according to a Chiba government official.

 

The additional two cases are a man in his 60s and another man in his 50s in Kumamoto prefecture in southern Japan. Ninety-nine people in Japan have so far tested positive for coronavirus.

 

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-italy-reports-first-death-from-covid-19/a-52467865

Posted

Well the sun has gone down on Sun....

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-28/sun-yang-banned-from-swimming-for-eight-years/12012900

 

Chinese Olympic gold medallist Sun Yang has been banned from swimming for eight years for breaking anti-doping rules, but the swimmer has indicated he will appeal the Court of Arbitration for Sport's (CAS) ruling.

 

Meanwhile his supporters are doing this:

 

https://www.news.com.au/sport/olympics/sun-yang-fans-troll-mack-horton-with-death-threats-after-doping-verdict/news-story/6fd0f45b877bfcd6183cb0a05eac1461

 

Fans, writing in English and Chinese characters, issued strange death threats to Horton.

The 23-year-old’s Instagram and Twitter pages were lightning rods for Sun supporters to direct their anger towards after the three-time Olympic champion’s doping ban was enforced.

One comment on Instagram translated from Chinese told Horton to “rest in piece” and asked the Aussie swimmer when he would “die”.

Another comment in English said: “Your mom just dead”.

Another Instagram user wrote: “You see you are born to have only the life of garbage”.

Another blamed Horton for insulting Sun Yang first with his iconic silent podium protest at the World Championships.

“Mack Horton jumped out first to insult Sun Yang. It’s really impolite,” one Instagram user wrote.

“Does he think he is a god who knows all the truth?”

Tens of thousands of Chinese flooded social media in support of Sun Yang following the verdict, stating it was “cruel” and “unjust”.

“Foreigners are jealous. It is really unfair to treat Sun Yang in this way. Since when did competitive sports become villain sports,” said one user
Posted

Reminds me of the cheating by the Chinese teams when China hosted the Military World Games last year.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/24/chinese-orienteering-team-disqualified-cheating-military-world-games

To rephrase Clausewitz: "Sport is the continuation of war by other means."

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