The Philippines, To Because Or To Not Because

[JasonJ]

I found this to be an interesting talk and didn't know where it could fit well in an existing thread, so a new one.

 

Talks about the Philippines as a raising democracy country. Other examples being Turkey, India, and a lesser extant Iran, where all apparently have the Trump-like sort of winners, i.e. populists or local governors that were also anti-establishment, which may be finding a source from what the speaker calls as "grievance politics" which is probably what (the angry white men voters) enabled Trump to win as well. And so with this kind of people winning elections seems to show a tolerance for autocracy and political tolerance for the strongman at top. So in the case of the Philippines, it is said here that even though GDP growth has been very good in the last decade or so, very few people reap the gains, so that caused many voters to seek an outsider. Another interesting point is deep federal style of the provinces which are almost like ruling dynasties of their own province, with family members making up the bulk of positions. Another point was the existence of a feeling of "Imperial Manila" which stems from complaints about Luzon "colonizing" the southern area, which may be another reason for Duterte, a governor from the south, was able to get elected. Well anyway, there's a lot more, it's an interesting talk.

[DougRichards]

Well, that is the question....

 

Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles,
And by opposing end them. To die- to sleep-
No more; and by a sleep to say we end
The heartache, and the thousand natural shocks
That flesh is heir to. 'Tis a consummation
Devoutly to be wish'd. To die- to sleep.
To sleep- perchance to dream: ay, there's the rub!
For in that sleep of death what dreams may come
When we have shuffled off this mortal coil,
Must give us pause. There's the respect
That makes calamity of so long life.
For who would bear the whips and scorns of time,
Th' oppressor's wrong, the proud man's contumely,
The pangs of despis'd love, the law's delay, 1765
The insolence of office, and the spurns
That patient merit of th' unworthy takes,
When he himself might his quietus make
With a bare bodkin? Who would these fardels bear,
To grunt and sweat under a weary life,
But that the dread of something after death-
The undiscover'd country, from whose bourn
No traveller returns- puzzles the will,
And makes us rather bear those ills we have
Than fly to others that we know not of?
Thus conscience does make cowards of us all,
And thus the native hue of resolution
Is sicklied o'er with the pale cast of thought,
And enterprises of great pith and moment
With this regard their currents turn awry
And lose the name of action.- Soft you now!
The fair Ophelia!- Nymph, in thy orisons
Be all my sins rememb'red.

[Simon Tan]

I will quote Rod. Putang ina.

[TonyE]

If Manila is the answer, i dare not wish to know the question.

[JasonJ]

Typhoon Vinta caused major flash floods in Mindanao, well over 100 died, RIP.

http://m.philstar.com/782974/show/290db8ed54bc7f747d92f566a7c97993/?

[JasonJ]

 

https://www.sws.org.ph/swsmain/artcldisppage/?artcsyscode=ART-20180228140019

[DB]

Seriously? "Net Trust"?

 

Is this supposed to be a serious statistical measure?

[JasonJ]

Seriously? "Net Trust"?

 

Is this supposed to be a serious statistical measure?

 

How much do you trust the US?

A) a lot

B] undecided

C) a little

 

Tally up all the responses, take the difference between the total of A and C and call it "net trust".

 

Seems straight forward to me.

 

One could then question the possibility of foul play of manipulating for a desired result. It's a fair question even if usually just the people that don't like the results pullout the scrutiny

 

But, from my observations, the results aren't so surprising. Even though Duterte doesn't like the US, I haven't noticed anything beyond his mouth to suggest a large number of anti-Americanism. I also recall some old post by Thomas before his ascendancy saying something to the effect that Filipinos just plain like America, and probably a little too much. There might be a correlation in the number of Filipino people living abroad in different countries. The US, Canada, and recently, even Japan (recently) have a fairly high number, relatively speaking. The climb up for Japan is most likely correlated with the recent development of defense ties and Japanese infrastructure projects in the Philippines. Before that, the Philippines has been a little shy about taking in FDI.

Edited March 31, 2018 by JasonJ

[DB]

I understand how it's calculated.

 

I question that it has even the slightest bit of meaning - Do many people dislike the country, or few? Are most apathetic, or none? Post the actual numbers, let the chart show the data.

 

Oversimplifying removes content and renders the data useless.

[JasonJ]

It's very simple, but it is what it is. If there was a more detailed survey, I would put it up. But I don't see that as a reason to not put up this, consider the simple survey as "because Philippines". They may be able to further develop humanities related studies later, but for now, they still have a shortage of schools, infrastructure, multi-lingual and so on, so it is probably reasonable to not expect such detailed surveys that are nationwide

Edited March 31, 2018 by JasonJ

[JWB]

Ban on work in Kuwait permanent: Duterte

 

 

MANILA • Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte yesterday said the temporary ban on Filipinos going to work in Kuwait is now permanent, intensifying a diplomatic standoff over the treatment of migrant workers in the Gulf nation.

Mr Duterte in February imposed a prohibition on workers heading to Kuwait following the murder there of a Filipino maid whose body was found stuffed in a freezer.

The crisis deepened after Kuwaiti authorities last week ordered Manila's envoy to leave the country over videos of Philippine embassy staff helping workers in Kuwait flee allegedly abusive employers.

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/ban-on-work-in-kuwait-permanent-duterte

[TonyE]

Duterte Rising.....

[JasonJ]

Oops forgot to insert mandatory Japan bad post.

[Chris Werb]

Oops forgot to insert mandatory Japan bad post.

 

 

Sorry, I read that as "bad Japan post"

[Panzermann]

What has Japan t odo with the traditionally bad treatment of foreign workers by the oil sheikhs? Doesn't matter if filipino or bangladeshis oder pakistani or wherever else from. Funny how they treat fellow ummah members.

[Colin]

Malaysian love their Palestinian Brothers and Sisters, but not so much the Indonesian ones......Distance really does make the heart grow fonder.

[JasonJ]

 

https://globalnation.inquirer.net/178338/pulse-asia-most-filipinos-distrust-china-russia-us-canada

[JasonJ]

There were some articles in past few months of a spat between some US senators and the Philippines. Some threats about terminating the VFA but figured it was mostly hot air or for leverage making. But Duterte got a termination notice sent to the US. Still 180 days until it takes affect, so at any time, I'd imagine the termination notice can be back tracked any time up to the last minute, like with the GSOMIA last year. There are other defense agreements between the US and Philippines as well so impact wouldn't be an full on cut of it. But anyway, one more thing to put an eye on.

 

MANILA, Philippines (3rd UPDATE) – The Philippines has sent its notice of termination of the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) to the United States, Malacañang announced on Tuesday, February 11.

 

Presidential Spokesperson Salvador Panelo said in a news briefing on Tuesday that Foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jr signed the Philippines’ notice of termination that day and sent it to the US government.

 

"The Executive Secretary sent the message to Secretary Teddyboy Locsin and the latter signed the notice of termination as sent to the US government today," Panelo said.

 

"As the President said, it's about time we rely on our own resources," he added.

 

What happens next? With the Philippines' formal notice signed, termination will take place 180 days or 6 months after the US received written notification. In the meantime, Article IX of the agreement, states the VFA remains in force until the end of the time period.

 

Specifically, the provision on Duration and Termination reads: "This agreement shall remain in force until the expiration of 180 days from the date on which either party gives the other party notice in writing that it desires to terminate the agreement."

 

Locsin on Tuesday said the Deputy Chief of Mission of the US embassy had already received the Philippines' notice of termination of the VFA. The DFA chief however, suggested there could be room for a vigorous review to take place.

 

"You're the only one who got that," Locsin tweeted in response to a reporter commenting the termination would trigger "furious negotiations."

 

DFAPHL The Deputy Chief of Mission of the Embassy of the United States has received the notice of termination of the Visiting Forces Agreement. As a diplomatic courtesy there will be no further factual announcements following this self-explanatory development. https://t.co/qQhywEpcea — Teddy Locsin Jr. (@teddyboylocsin) February 11, 2020

 

Why this matters. Locsin made the move despite his and Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana’s earlier push for a review of the VFA rather than its outright termination. Both Locsin and Lorenzana earlier said they were not consulted when Duterte threatened to scrap the decades-old military pact. (READ: With threats to scrap VFA, Duterte gambles Philippines' security)

 

Locsin earlier warned of the far-reaching consequences if the Philippines were to abrogate the VFA. He earlier told a Senate panel that while it was President Rodrigo Duterte's prerogative, "the continuance of the agreement is deemed to be more beneficial to the Philippines compared to any benefits were it to be terminated."

 

(FULL TEXT: Locsin on impact assessment of VFA termination)

 

On Monday night, February 10, Duterte launched a fresh round of verbal tirades against the US saying while top officials, including President Donald Trump, were trying to salvage the VFA, he was bent on having it terminated. (EXPLAINER: Visiting Forces Agreement)

 

Duterte first broached his plan to terminate the VFA on January 23, after the US canceled the visa of Senator Ronald dela Rosa. Dela Rosa is Duterte's first Philippine National Police chief known as the architect behind the government's bloody anti-drug campaign.

 

The President later said he was serious about his decision, adding his choice to do so was anchored on US lawmakers' moves to impose travel and financial restrictions on Philippine officials linked to the detention of opposition Senator Leila de Lima and alleged extrajudicial killings (EJKs) under the Duterte administration. (READ: Why the Global Magnitsky Act matters to the Philippines)

 

Aside from the US, the Philippines has a similar VFA with Australia that allows their troops to visit the country for joint activities. The Senate ratified the Status of Visiting Forces Agreement with Australia in September 2012.

 

During the Aquino administration, the Philippines and Japan in June 2015 also began discussions on a similar treaty that was expected to allow Japanese military access to the country's military bases. – Rappler.com

https://amp.rappler.com/nation/251508-philippines-terminates-visiting-forces-agreement-united-states

[Tim the Tank Nut]

Duterte is on China's payroll

[JasonJ]

Trump doesn't mind.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -- U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday brushed aside the decision of Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte to end a decades-old military agreement with United States, saying he didn't really mind and it would save money.

 

Duterte announced the termination of the two-decade-old Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) on Tuesday, a move U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper called "unfortunate." The decision will take effect in 180 days.

 

Asked whether he would try to persuade Duterte to reconsider, Trump told reporters at the White House: "Well I never minded that very much to be honest. We helped the Philippines very much. We helped them defeat ISIS... I don't really mind if they would like to do that, it will save a lot of money. My views are different from others."

 

 

Trump said he had "a very good" relationship with Duterte and added: "we'll see what happens."

 

Duterte's decision, sparked by the revocation of a U.S. visa held by a former police chief who led his bloody war on drugs, could complicate U.S. military interests in the Asia-Pacific region as China's ambitions rise.

 

The VFA is important to the overall U.S.-Philippines alliance and sets out rules for U.S. soldiers operating in the Philippines. It underpins what Washington has called an "ironclad" relationship despite Duterte's complaints about U.S. hypocrisy, ill treatment and ageing weapons.

 

Ending the VFA could hurt Washington's future interests in maintaining an Asia-Pacific troop presence amid friction over the presence of U.S. personnel in Japan and South Korea and security concerns about China and North Korea.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Trump-says-he-doesn-t-mind-if-Philippines-ends-US-troop-pact Edited February 13, 2020 by JasonJ

[JasonJ]

This article has a little more.

...

 

Trump said “we came in and literally single-handedly were able to save them from vicious attacks on their islands.”

 

The U.S. provided Philippine forces with assistance and training in the areas of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance through a rotating group of special operations troops that did not number more than 100 at any given time, according to a Pentagon statement at the time. American troops were not involved in direct combat.

 

...

 

https://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/trump-fine-with-philippines-plan-to-end-pact-allowing-us-troops-to-train-there-1.618505

 

While pretty bad at MOUT, but as the stripes article implies, the Filipinos did the actual fighting part themselves.

http://www.tank-net.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=42511&page=1

[JasonJ]

Comments from a Philippine military general.

MANILA, Philippines — The Armed Forces of the Philippines will be pushing for military cooperation arrangements with other countries in the region, including China, in a bid to fill the possible security gaps with the termination of the 1999 Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) between the Philippines and the United States, the AFP chief said yesterday.

 

Gen. Felimon Santos Jr., in separate interviews with members of the Commission on Appointments (CA) and reporters at the Senate, maintained that the country’s security establishment will survive without the US military assistance tied with the VFA.

 

During the CA confirmation proceedings for Santos’ appointment, Sen. Francis Tolentino asked him about the possible effects of the termination of the VFA, particularly on the military’s disaster response capabilities, especially with warnings of the “Big One” earthquake hitting Metro Manila.

 

The senator cited recent natural disasters, such as Super Typhoon Yolanda in 2013, the Taal Volcano eruption last month and the Southern Leyte landslide in 2006, where US personnel participated in rescue and relief efforts.

 

US Marines were able to immediately respond to the Leyte landslide, for instance, because of ongoing joint Balikatan military exercises at the time, he noted.

 

“Will this (VFA abrogation) hamper our rescue and relief efforts if we don’t have an existing VFA agreement? The Armed Forces under your turf is expected to come up with a fill-gap plan on how to effectively respond, given that the US military will no longer be around,” Tolentino asked Santos.

 

“It has already been decided. What the AFP will do is to prepare for not having a VFA,” Santos said.

 

“Part of filling the gap is we will increase our bilateral exercises, agreement with other countries not only United Sates, the only SOVFA (Status of Visiting Forces Agreement) we have is Australia, so with the help of the Congress and the Senate we will push for the approval of (agreements with) the other countries like South Korea, Japan, Indonesia and other allied countries,” he said.

 

On disaster response, he said the military is drafting plans to create a purpose-built brigade for calamities, similar to the engineering brigades of various units.

 

Santos told reporters after the CA confirmed his appointment that the AFP will increase its engagements with counterparts in the region to improve interoperability in military operations.

 

He cited South Korea, from which the Philippines has purchased lead-in fighter aircraft.

 

He said Japan and Indonesia are the other countries with which the Philippines might consider forging pacts similar to VFA or SOVFA.

 

Interestingly, Santos also mentioned the possibility of forging a military agreement with China, with which the Philippines is currently in a territorial dispute over the West Philippine Sea. China has put up several military installations over artificial islands it had built in the last few years in the West Philippine Sea.

 

“We have understandings on intelligence information exchange, exchange of training (with other countries), so we will now push for SOVFA and maritime exercises, same with the Air Force,” Santos said.

 

The general also said the AFP is willing to continue its joint military exercises with the US in the remaining 180 days left of the VFA’s effectivity. Under the 20-year-old pact, the termination will take effect 180 days from the date which either party gives notice in writing that it wants to abrogate the agreement.

 

However, nothing prevents the US from cancelling joint military activities with the Philippines scheduled for this year even before the 180 days are over, he said.

 

He said 318 joint military exercises, meetings and other activities have been scheduled for this year, and about half of them are likely not going to push through.

 

“Since we have served a notice so we will observe 180 days before the expiration and seek guidance from the secretary of national defense. So for those (exercises) that are ongoing we’ll push through, unless the other side cancels it, just like the Balikatan, will be covered up to before the 180 days,” Santos said.

 

Santos maintained there are no grumblings in the military over President Duterte’s efforts to cut security ties with the US, a long-standing ally.

 

“We will support the President’s decision. That’s a political decision. We’ll support it and we will live without the VFA,” he said.

 

https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2020/02/13/1992776/afp-eyes-vfas-china-japan/amp/

[JasonJ]

When it comes to Trump, can not fully trust media portrayal, so a video of his answer which pretty much the articles above cover all that he said. Although the stripes article was a little reserved as he started the quote by stripes with "when ISIS was over running the Philippines, " which of course, ISIS wasn't making a push onto Manila or anything like that... Starts at 0:30.

Edited February 13, 2020 by JasonJ

[JasonJ]

Duterte liked Trump's response.

 

 

PRESIDENT Rodrigo Duterte said United States (US) President Donald Trump “deserves to be reelected” for understanding and respecting the Philippines’ decision to terminate the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) between Manila and Washington, Malacañang said on Saturday.

“PRRD (President Duterte) welcomes President Trump’s remarks and he is glad that the American President understands and respects his decision to end the Visiting Forces Agreement,” Palace spokesman Salvador Panelo said in a statement.

“It is President Trump’s circumspect and judicious reaction to the termination of the VFA that made PRRD give the following remarks: ‘President Trump is a good President and he deserves to be re-elected,'” he added.

The Philippine government recently notified the US about its desire to terminate the military pact that allowed American troops to train Filipino soldiers in the country.

The VFA termination came after the President blasted the alleged inequities in the treaty provisions, as well as a string of US actions that supposedly disrespected the country’s sovereignty and justice system.

Trump has downplayed Duterte’s notice of termination of the VFA, saying he did not mind such a move and it would actually save the US “a lot of money.”

Duterte had claimed that Trump was trying to save the military accord between the two countries but he rebuffed such attempt.

In scrapping the VFA, Panelo said Duterte “points to the the legislative and executive actions of the US government, which we have previously elaborated, as his raison d’etre.”

“The Chief Executive deemed such actions to be not only an offensive and blatant disrespect to our judicial system but an outright assault to the country’s sovereignty,” Panelo said.

“As a matter of principle and national pride, being the head of an aggrieved and insulted state, he had been compelled to take a bold, decisive and studied action,” he added.

Duterte, according to Panelo, said he would have reacted the same way if he was in Trump’s shoes while musing that Trump would have also ordered to end the agreement if he was the Philippines’ leader.

“The President said that if President Trump were a Filipino and the Philippine President, given his character and principled stand on a matter of national interest, he would have done exactly the same thing he had done, and if he (PRRD) were the US President, he would have given the same reaction,” Panelo said.

“By way of a gentle reminder, President Trump as an aside stated that the US helped the Philippines in crushing the Isis terrorists during the Marawi rebellion. We are of course not oblivious of such succour and we reiterate our appreciation for that deed. We wish to remind our erstwhile bosom ally that we too fought side by side with them in fighting the Japanese Imperial forces during the Second World,” he added.

Panelo then reiterated that the President believed the Philippines should become self-reliant, at least in defense matters.

“The time to strengthen our defense capabilities has come. Reliance on another country to defend our motherland from whoever desires to threaten our territorial integrity as well as to assault our sovereignty will only further weaken and stagnate our already limited resources,” Panelo said.

“As the President says in rationalizing why we have to stand alone and depending on our own resources in fighting the enemies of the state: ‘If not now, when ?’ ‘Kung hindi ngayon, kailan pa?'” he added.

https://www.manilatimes.net/2020/02/15/news/latest-stories/duterte-trump-deserves-to-be-reelected/686277/

[Stuart Galbraith]

Yes, I can entirely see the dumbing down and reduction in capablity of the phillipines army is entirely to the interest of the United States. Even more to the interests of the PRC I would have thought.