KV7 Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Time is on the side of the Chicoms, Taiwan is not going anywhere. It will still be there when they have a serious blue water fleet.Yes, time is on their side. The longer this goes, the more dependent Taiwan's security becomes on outside support. Time can only be reversed if PRC's economy stagnates putting a stop to the current trend of developing power or if Taiwan gets nuclear weapons that are deliveravle to PRC targets. But a nuclear Taiwan would cause all sorts of new geo political problems in the region. ROK would want them, then Japan would want them, then Vietnam would want them. I don't think it is preferrable that Taiwan gets nukes. Taiwan persuing nukes would probably prompt a Chinese attack. Agree it is a terrible prospect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonJ Posted September 4, 2019 Author Share Posted September 4, 2019 (edited) Time is on the side of the Chicoms, Taiwan is not going anywhere. It will still be there when they have a serious blue water fleet. Yes, time is on their side. The longer this goes, the more dependent Taiwan's security becomes on outside support.Time can only be reversed if PRC's economy stagnates putting a stop to the current trend of developing power or if Taiwan gets nuclear weapons that are deliveravle to PRC targets. But a nuclear Taiwan would cause all sorts of new geo political problems in the region. ROK would want them, then Japan would want them, then Vietnam would want them. I don't think it is preferrable that Taiwan gets nukes.Taiwan persuing nukes would probably prompt a Chinese attack. Agree it is a terrible prospect.Good point, if there's anything that would provoke a bad reaction from China out of Taiwan more than Taiwan declaring independence, it would be news about nuclear weapons development in Taiwan. Edited September 4, 2019 by JasonJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonJ Posted September 4, 2019 Author Share Posted September 4, 2019 A couple of J-10Bs and a J-10A flying with a couple of Thai Gripens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nobu Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 AirPower has never 100% effective. And airborne drops are the only thing even more risky that amphibious landings, plus there the rather large dearth of lift at the current time. The PRC could keep feeding men and equipment into the exercise and I dare say theyd win eventually, but probably not without sustaining a casualty level that would make even the PRC blanch. Theres a lot of men in the tanks who are the only child from their family. Plus gutting your new navy when you have another peer opponent seems like a poor move. It isnt a practical course of action unless Taiwan was somehow existential, and it isnt remotely. Even blockade or bombardment would bring severe economic dislocation assuming the US for whatever reason didnt get involved militarily.An airborne assault by a division or thereabouts on Taiwan and its population of 23 million does not sound like a feasible military operation in terms of sheer scale in various ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonJ Posted September 4, 2019 Author Share Posted September 4, 2019 AirPower has never 100% effective. And airborne drops are the only thing even more risky that amphibious landings, plus there the rather large dearth of lift at the current time. The PRC could keep feeding men and equipment into the exercise and I dare say theyd win eventually, but probably not without sustaining a casualty level that would make even the PRC blanch. Theres a lot of men in the tanks who are the only child from their family. Plus gutting your new navy when you have another peer opponent seems like a poor move. It isnt a practical course of action unless Taiwan was somehow existential, and it isnt remotely. Even blockade or bombardment would bring severe economic dislocation assuming the US for whatever reason didnt get involved militarily.An airborne assault by a division or thereabouts on Taiwan and its population of 23 million does not sound like a feasible military operation in terms of sheer scale in various ways. Airborne like any other arm forms part of a combined arms operation plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonJ Posted September 4, 2019 Author Share Posted September 4, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonJ Posted September 4, 2019 Author Share Posted September 4, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Josh Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 An airborne assault by a division or thereabouts on Taiwan and its population of 23 million does not sound like a feasible military operation in terms of sheer scale in various ways. China wishes it could deliver a brigade by air, let alone support it. Such a plan also assumes that every SAM remotely near the drop zone has been successfully identified and destroyed, including their indigenously made SHORADs systems, or else you have a couple hundred guys dying per airlifter and a lot less airlifters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JWB Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 An airborne assault by a division or thereabouts on Taiwan and its population of 23 million does not sound like a feasible military operation in terms of sheer scale in various ways. China wishes it could deliver a brigade by air, let alone support it. Such a plan also assumes that every SAM remotely near the drop zone has been successfully identified and destroyed, including their indigenously made SHORADs systems, or else you have a couple hundred guys dying per airlifter and a lot less airlifters. That means the PRC can only take RoC by naval blockade and starvation. That may or may not succeed depending if RoC can make itself food self sufficient in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonJ Posted September 7, 2019 Author Share Posted September 7, 2019 (edited) Shaheen VIII - 中巴空军“雄鹰-Ⅷ”An annual air force joint-exercise between China and Pakistan going on now in the western part of China. The first iteration was in 2011. Six more images in the spoiler https://xw.qq.com/cmsid/20190907A0LKRT00https://mil.news.sina.com.cn/china/2019-09-07/doc-iicezueu4089637.shtml Edited September 7, 2019 by JasonJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris Werb Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 Please note I have deleted quite a few political or otherwise irrelevant posts from this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 It's easier to defend against invasion when you know you're at war. What if the PRC does a series of exercises and feints to numb Taiwan and the world into lax readiness and then go for broke just as everyone is used to the gamesmanship? Similar to how a naval ship would handle the Iranians and their swarm boat tactics. If you know they're coming in earnest, you can start to whittle them down at range but if there have been no hostilities and the naval ship is used to the Iranians boats milling about at fairly close range and then all of a sudden they open fire in earnest, a naval crew might have trouble getting the ship into action before the hits start to really take their toll. I was just watching a video on the HMAS Sydney and how the Kormoran took her out. The Aussies were caught with their pants down and many of the crew were cut to pieces trying to get to the light weapons to fire back at the Kormoran's light weapons wreaking havoc on the bridge and deck spaces. Meanwhile, the heavier weapons were pounding the turrets and hull. The Kormoran shouldn't have stood a chance and yet the close range and surprise made the difference. It's that grey period between peace and war that can make a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonJ Posted September 10, 2019 Author Share Posted September 10, 2019 Yes, that's exactly part of the overall effort to expand. Its almost never so black and white. With a combination of grey zone activity or increased activity in technically legal areas, they can create new norms and eat away at will to resist. For example, the number of times that PLA warships or aircraft circumvent Taiwan has been going up and increasing in sophistication. Its entirely internationally legal but but the increase in frequency, deployed power, and sophistication, a new reality will be created that the PLA comes closer and closer to having de facto control of the waters around Taiwan if the balance of power changes to their said. For example, in Dec 2016 it was the first time that a PLAN carrier group sailed through the Okinawa island chain and circled around Taiwan. Two more times a carrier group in 2017 and 2018. Again in June 2019 but ik this time, the navigation path didn't just go around Taiwan but went through the Okinawa islands and went near Guam then circled back underneath the Philippines and into the SCS. Its always this pattern of inching up more and more activity. At some point, it'll be two carriers making the rounds. Then three doing. And their battle groups will feature more Type 52D destroyers, and Type 55 destroyers will be joining, etc etc. If so much display of naval firepower is making the rounds, then they may just win defacto control on Taiwan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Galbraith Posted September 10, 2019 Share Posted September 10, 2019 It's easier to defend against invasion when you know you're at war. What if the PRC does a series of exercises and feints to numb Taiwan and the world into lax readiness and then go for broke just as everyone is used to the gamesmanship? Similar to how a naval ship would handle the Iranians and their swarm boat tactics. If you know they're coming in earnest, you can start to whittle them down at range but if there have been no hostilities and the naval ship is used to the Iranians boats milling about at fairly close range and then all of a sudden they open fire in earnest, a naval crew might have trouble getting the ship into action before the hits start to really take their toll. I was just watching a video on the HMAS Sydney and how the Kormoran took her out. The Aussies were caught with their pants down and many of the crew were cut to pieces trying to get to the light weapons to fire back at the Kormoran's light weapons wreaking havoc on the bridge and deck spaces. Meanwhile, the heavier weapons were pounding the turrets and hull. The Kormoran shouldn't have stood a chance and yet the close range and surprise made the difference. It's that grey period between peace and war that can make a huge difference. Although in defence of the Aussies, they still won. Picture here of what appears to be at least 5 J-20's flying in Formation. I feel its a little premature to say this means its in mass production, but it certainly points towards some progress.https://www.businessinsider.com/china-air-force-j20-formation-sign-stealth-fighter-mass-production-2019-9?r=US&IR=T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nobu Posted September 10, 2019 Share Posted September 10, 2019 Had not heard of the Sydney v Kormorant episode, which made for an interesting read. Rumors of Japanese involvement seem to have been premature. J20 progress would be much easier to assess if one were to be obtained by defection. Curious if the Republic of Chinese are offering a reward for such an act in various ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonJ Posted September 12, 2019 Author Share Posted September 12, 2019 (edited) Z-19s and Blackhawks Z-20s Edited September 12, 2019 by JasonJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nobu Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 Have done some reading on the bounty once offered by the Republic of Chinese to any defecting Communist Chinese pilot, which was 6650 (!) ounces of gold. Treasure hunters may have been searching for Yamashita's gold on the wrong island all these years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RETAC21 Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 Yes, that's exactly part of the overall effort to expand. Its almost never so black and white. With a combination of grey zone activity or increased activity in technically legal areas, they can create new norms and eat away at will to resist. For example, the number of times that PLA warships or aircraft circumvent Taiwan has been going up and increasing in sophistication. Its entirely internationally legal but but the increase in frequency, deployed power, and sophistication, a new reality will be created that the PLA comes closer and closer to having de facto control of the waters around Taiwan if the balance of power changes to their said. For example, in Dec 2016 it was the first time that a PLAN carrier group sailed through the Okinawa island chain and circled around Taiwan. Two more times a carrier group in 2017 and 2018. Again in June 2019 but ik this time, the navigation path didn't just go around Taiwan but went through the Okinawa islands and went near Guam then circled back underneath the Philippines and into the SCS. Its always this pattern of inching up more and more activity. At some point, it'll be two carriers making the rounds. Then three doing. And their battle groups will feature more Type 52D destroyers, and Type 55 destroyers will be joining, etc etc. If so much display of naval firepower is making the rounds, then they may just win defacto control on Taiwan. Train like you plan to fight. This is something the USN did off the Soviet Union in the 80s but it wasn't a portent of a first strike. I agree that it means Taiwan now needs to worry about 2 axis instead of one and that Guam is now within "range" of the PLA Navy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonJ Posted September 15, 2019 Author Share Posted September 15, 2019 Yes, that's exactly part of the overall effort to expand. Its almost never so black and white. With a combination of grey zone activity or increased activity in technically legal areas, they can create new norms and eat away at will to resist. For example, the number of times that PLA warships or aircraft circumvent Taiwan has been going up and increasing in sophistication. Its entirely internationally legal but but the increase in frequency, deployed power, and sophistication, a new reality will be created that the PLA comes closer and closer to having de facto control of the waters around Taiwan if the balance of power changes to their said. For example, in Dec 2016 it was the first time that a PLAN carrier group sailed through the Okinawa island chain and circled around Taiwan. Two more times a carrier group in 2017 and 2018. Again in June 2019 but ik this time, the navigation path didn't just go around Taiwan but went through the Okinawa islands and went near Guam then circled back underneath the Philippines and into the SCS. Its always this pattern of inching up more and more activity. At some point, it'll be two carriers making the rounds. Then three doing. And their battle groups will feature more Type 52D destroyers, and Type 55 destroyers will be joining, etc etc. If so much display of naval firepower is making the rounds, then they may just win defacto control on Taiwan. Train like you plan to fight. This is something the USN did off the Soviet Union in the 80s but it wasn't a portent of a first strike. I agree that it means Taiwan now needs to worry about 2 axis instead of one and that Guam is now within "range" of the PLA Navy On that thought, not long ago, it was reported that Japan said that Chinese JH-7 fighter-bombers likely used actual JMSDF destroyers in the East China Sea as mock targets for training. China says that's not true. TOKYO -- Chinese military aircraft likely used nearby Japanese destroyers as targets during a missile drill in international waters in the East China Sea in May, according to Japanese government sources. The Japanese government viewed the drill as "an extremely dangerous military activity" that could have developed into a contingency, the sources said Sunday. But Japan has not lodged a protest with China or disclosed the incident publicly as it does not wish to reveal its intelligence gathering and analysis capabilities, according to the sources. While relations between Japan and China have been improving recently, the two countries remain at odds over the East China Sea, with Japan repeatedly protesting over unilateral gas field development by China and intrusions in Japanese territorial waters by Chinese vessels. Japan and China agreed in 2008 on joint gas field development in the East China Sea, but the project has stalled since a collision between a Chinese fishing vessel and a Japanese patrol ship in 2010 off the Japanese-administered Senkaku Islands that are claimed by China, which calls them Diaoyu. The Chinese aircraft drill indicates that tensions remain in the area, highlighting the necessity to develop a mechanism to avoid accidental clashes, defense experts said. According to the sources, in late May several JH-7 fighter bombers approached two Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyers that were within striking distance of anti-ship missiles. The crews of the Japanese vessels were not able to determine the intention of the Chinese pilots, who did not lock on guided missile radar. However, units of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces intercepted communications between the Chinese aircraft in which the pilots said they would conduct a drill using the MSDF vessels as mock targets, according to the sources. Based on analysis of the radio communications, the flight paths of the aircraft and other information, the Japanese government came to the conclusion that an anti-ship drill had been conducted. Some Japanese government officials believe the incident was a provocation, the sources said, while defense experts said the situation needed to be further analyzed. "Usually, it is not possible for any military organization to use another country's military as a target during a drill in international waters," said Bonji Ohara, a senior fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation, adding it is necessary to figure out whether the move was ordered by Chinse military commanders or just carried out by the pilots. In 2013, a Chinese warship directed a fire-control radar at an MSDF destroyer in the East China Sea, prompting the Japanese government to lodge a protest with China.https://japantoday.com/category/national/chinese-aircraft-use-japan-ships-as-targets-in-e.-china-sea-drill Japanese media accusations that Chinese aircraft used Japanese warships as imaginary targets during a missile drill is purely speculation and only reveals Japan's own guilty conscience, Chinese military experts said on Monday. Chinese military aircraft "likely used nearby Japanese destroyers as targets during a missile drill in international waters in the East China Sea in May," Japanese media outlet Kyodo News reported on Sunday, citing Japanese government sources. It claimed that several Chinese JH-7 fighter bombers approached two Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyers that were within striking distance of anti-ship missiles. While the Chinese pilots did not lock on guided missile radar, the Japanese intercepted communications between the Chinese aircraft in which the pilots said they would conduct a drill using the Japanese vessels as mock targets, Kyodo News said. In response to the report, Chinese air defense expert Fu Qianshao said the evidence from the Japanese side was not trustworthy. "During military exercises, the communications between warplanes are usually conducted through abbreviated sentences and not done through voice comms," Fu said, questioning how it was possible for the Japanese side to intercept the Chinese communications. The JH-7 is capable of hitting targets very far away, and it is very normal to acquire a target during training by turning on its radar, Fu said. "The radar was not turned on at all, and Japan still thought it is targeted. This only means Japan has a guilty conscience, and it is purely speculation," he said. An anonymous military expert told the Global Times that Japan is putting its own spin on China's normal flights and training, which is another aspect of the so-called China threat theory. The expert said that under this Japanese way of thinking, Chinese ships and aircraft could also have been used by Japan as mock targets every time they entered the range of Japanese missiles. "It has already become normal that Japanese ships and aircraft follow and conduct close surveillance of Chinese military actions in the East China Sea. We have reason to worry that the presence of Japan's Self-Defense Force is a seriously dangerous military threat," the expert noted, adding that China should "stay on high alert so that a Japanese sneak attack never occurs again."http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/view/2019-08/19/content_9594626.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonJ Posted September 15, 2019 Author Share Posted September 15, 2019 Since there is going to be a military parade on October 1st, there's been numerous rehearsals and sightings as of late. Some UAVs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nobu Posted September 15, 2019 Share Posted September 15, 2019 (edited) Yes, that's exactly part of the overall effort to expand. Its almost never so black and white. With a combination of grey zone activity or increased activity in technically legal areas, they can create new norms and eat away at will to resist. For example, the number of times that PLA warships or aircraft circumvent Taiwan has been going up and increasing in sophistication. Its entirely internationally legal but but the increase in frequency, deployed power, and sophistication, a new reality will be created that the PLA comes closer and closer to having de facto control of the waters around Taiwan if the balance of power changes to their said. For example, in Dec 2016 it was the first time that a PLAN carrier group sailed through the Okinawa island chain and circled around Taiwan. Two more times a carrier group in 2017 and 2018. Again in June 2019 but ik this time, the navigation path didn't just go around Taiwan but went through the Okinawa islands and went near Guam then circled back underneath the Philippines and into the SCS. Its always this pattern of inching up more and more activity. At some point, it'll be two carriers making the rounds. Then three doing. And their battle groups will feature more Type 52D destroyers, and Type 55 destroyers will be joining, etc etc. If so much display of naval firepower is making the rounds, then they may just win defacto control on Taiwan. Train like you plan to fight. This is something the USN did off the Soviet Union in the 80s but it wasn't a portent of a first strike. I agree that it means Taiwan now needs to worry about 2 axis instead of one and that Guam is now within "range" of the PLA NavyThat may explain why the Republic of Chinese have shown little interest in training for a fight against the soft merchant shipping underbelly of their most likely opponent, as the cargoes they would be sinking in doing so might actually be owned by their own corporations doing business with it in various ways. Edited September 15, 2019 by Nobu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonJ Posted September 22, 2019 Author Share Posted September 22, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris Werb Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 Yes, that's exactly part of the overall effort to expand. Its almost never so black and white. With a combination of grey zone activity or increased activity in technically legal areas, they can create new norms and eat away at will to resist. For example, the number of times that PLA warships or aircraft circumvent Taiwan has been going up and increasing in sophistication. Its entirely internationally legal but but the increase in frequency, deployed power, and sophistication, a new reality will be created that the PLA comes closer and closer to having de facto control of the waters around Taiwan if the balance of power changes to their said. For example, in Dec 2016 it was the first time that a PLAN carrier group sailed through the Okinawa island chain and circled around Taiwan. Two more times a carrier group in 2017 and 2018. Again in June 2019 but ik this time, the navigation path didn't just go around Taiwan but went through the Okinawa islands and went near Guam then circled back underneath the Philippines and into the SCS. Its always this pattern of inching up more and more activity. At some point, it'll be two carriers making the rounds. Then three doing. And their battle groups will feature more Type 52D destroyers, and Type 55 destroyers will be joining, etc etc. If so much display of naval firepower is making the rounds, then they may just win defacto control on Taiwan. Train like you plan to fight. This is something the USN did off the Soviet Union in the 80s but it wasn't a portent of a first strike. I agree that it means Taiwan now needs to worry about 2 axis instead of one and that Guam is now within "range" of the PLA NavyThat may explain why the Republic of Chinese have shown little interest in training for a fight against the soft merchant shipping underbelly of their most likely opponent, as the cargoes they would be sinking in doing so might actually be owned by their own corporations doing business with it in various ways. They have far more to lose from an unrestricted campaign against commercial shipping than the US does. Also, whatever capability you build to attack warships will almost certainly work against civilian shipping too (unless a missile only has an anti radar seeker tuned to specific frequency ranges etc.). The opposite obviously is not true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonJ Posted September 23, 2019 Author Share Posted September 23, 2019 H-6Ns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Galbraith Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 I really love these old birds. Although in truth they are probably a LOT newer than they look. I believe China was also the last operator of the B29/Tu4 Bull? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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