Because Trump 2.0

[Cinaruco]

 

 

 

Simply showing up with an MEU and a Carrier off the coast, warning Maduro that it's time to leave, allowing him safe passage to Cuba and then rolling in the Marines to handle food shipments/dispersal and keep order would probably work reasonably well, assuming MOST of the citizenry is done with Maduro. Chavistas best go to Cuba.

 

Getting some of our Latin American allies in on the work would be useful too.

 

 

 

Preventing a mass set of reprisals would be the key to fixing it without major bloodshed. If the Chavistas want to hang on to power then it gets sticky.

Why exactly would Venezuela react to a reinforced battalion? Way to bring a knife to a gun fight. That course of action would accomplish nothing.

 

It is the most powerful military force faced by the Venezuelan military since the battle of Ayacucho.

 

That is true of almost every nation in the world. It has a poor track record of actually making regimes de-legitimize themselves.

 

Iraq had a massive war with Iran, Desert Storm and a strong Jihadi component. I don't think you are well versed in Venezuelan military history if you honestly think that. Also you assume that it would only the ship just standing there, and that the Venezuelan military would fight to the last man... they wouldn't. The military is fractured, and power is only maintained by constant purges and money for the top dogs.

 

A good option would be for an air campaign to hit the repression and counter intelligence infrastructure, as well as a temporary embargo.

 

At any rate, Maduro looses what remains fo the oil production he is doomed.

 

People don't quite understand what is happening in Venezuela. Violence is worse that the Maidan.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1FCg2zdOC4U

 

 

National Guard gunned down, according to the reports, by a neighbor that had a rifle:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2SpvmrnPjOc

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hm-040vFPBY

[Cinaruco]

 

 

And if he doesn't leave...?

As I said:

 

"If the Chavistas want to hang on to power then it gets sticky. "

 

 

Why exactly would Venezuela react to a reinforced battalion? Way to bring a knife to a gun fight. That course of action would accomplish nothing.

MEU and a Carrier (which generally includes all of the teeth and tail of a Carrier Group).

 

Simply bringing such things to the table has worked in the past.

 

Perhaps you've heard of the term gunboat diplomacy? See also the early History of Panama.

 

Carriers have operated off the coast of the DRPK several times since that crisis started. Is Kim bending over to kiss our ass yet? It would accomplish nothing unless you actually bombed something, along with all of the diplomatic baggage that would accrue. Because the US isn't going to war with Venezuela and everyone knows it, including Maduro.

 

Comparing North Korea to Venezuela in military terms, hell even geopolitical terms is kind of misleading...

[Cinaruco]

 

I always thought that overflights (Like in the Philippines) would do wonders for the populace...

The Philippines didn't have Su-27s.

 

I wonder how long will it take for the US to develop some sort of technology that could in theory destroy 23 Su-30s...

 

Anyway the problem in this case would be the S-300s, Pechora, Thors and Iglas, but there is already technology to counter that I think.

Edited August 14, 2017 by Andres Vera

[rmgill]

What's the readiness state of the Venezuelan military if rebels can raid a fort and haul weapons and ammo out?


If they're down to gun battles with insurgent members of the police, are the S300s even manned or in a state of operational readiness?

[Roman Alymov]

 

 

I always thought that overflights (Like in the Philippines) would do wonders for the populace...

The Philippines didn't have Su-27s.

 

I wonder how long will it take for the US to develop some sort of technology that could in theory destroy 23 Su-30s...

 

Anyway the problem in this case would be the S-300s, Pechora, Thors and Iglas, but there is already technology to counter that I think.

 

Parking heavy truck on right time is enough, and I am sure CIA could arrange that easily in Venezuela. Sophisticated weapons are of no use in civil war – they are to prevent outside power from messing in, but sometimes Gov need every single dedicated officer with AK in the field, not somewhere in S-300 control room – so most likely all this toys will be just abandoned.

[Josh]

I've no doubt the US would win any conflict should it want to do something militarily to Venezuela. But the US will have to actually get its hands dirty and *do* something to Venezuela. Simply sailing by and saying 'hi', or even threatening military action, aren't going to mean anything to a regime that's perfectly willing to let its own people starve in the first place.

 

And popular opinion in the US won't support military action in Venezuela on pure cost reasons even before we get to diplomatic costs and the bad reputation US action has in South and Central America. It seems unlikely the US will even sanction the oil company for fear of blowback on oil and gas prices and damage to US refineries, some of which specifically are engineered to handle Vez's thick dirty oil. Unfortunately the Venezuelans are on their own.

[Cinaruco]

What's the readiness state of the Venezuelan military if rebels can raid a fort and haul weapons and ammo out?

 

 

If they're down to gun battles with insurgent members of the police, are the S300s even manned or in a state of operational readiness?

 

 

Yeah, for all his follies, Chavez really built up an impressive military. A pretty, bestial paper tiger. Venezuelan Military is as of now more powerful than Brazil's. Maybe even Canada. But on the human side, its bulk is made of illiterate cannon fodder. Their technical abilities are highly questioned.

[Cinaruco]

I've no doubt the US would win any conflict should it want to do something militarily to Venezuela. But the US will have to actually get its hands dirty and *do* something to Venezuela. Simply sailing by and saying 'hi', or even threatening military action, aren't going to mean anything to a regime that's perfectly willing to let its own people starve in the first place.

 

And popular opinion in the US won't support military action in Venezuela on pure cost reasons even before we get to diplomatic costs and the bad reputation US action has in South and Central America. It seems unlikely the US will even sanction the oil company for fear of blowback on oil and gas prices and damage to US refineries, some of which specifically are engineered to handle Vez's thick dirty oil. Unfortunately the Venezuelans are on their own.

You must no have read anything I posted.

 

Invasion would be last thing imaginable, there are other ways to engage in regime change without going full Neocon. Blast the repression, national guard and air drop weapons to the resistance. Buy their allegiance with food and medicine, no troops.

 

I don't think you understand that this is not becoming optional, but rather a necesity. Pence is touring SA right now, basically warning about what is to come rather than asking for permission. By the end of the year, Venezuela could be looking at a real famine and humanitarian crisis of the likes there has not been in LATAM in... 30 years?

 

At this point, its like Assad, support him, remove him or don't get involved. Are you seriously saying that in the case of a full fledge humanitarian crisis or civil war it would be in the US best interest to let it happen?

 

To the country with the largest oil reserves in the world and actively against US interest with Iran, Russia and China all involved wanting the ultimate prize?

 

Not to mention that the second most powerful guy in Venezuela is hiring sicarios to assassinate a US Congressman.

[Josh]

I read what you posted. Its still a war if you're dropping bombs on people. And to even drop food aid, the US would have to obliterate any SAMs or fighters in the country as a precaution. No one in the US has the stomach for that post Afghan/Iraq/Libya/Syria. Way before we get to those kind of measures we could do something more indirect like stop selling light sweet crude to Venezuela. But that would hurt US companies' bottom line and likely still would result in an increase in crude prices, so even that moderate level of resistance won't happen.

 

I've no doubt that Venezuela will become the worst humanitarian and refugee catastrophe in the Western hemisphere in a century. I still don't think you're going to see the US do anything about it. I think the OAS and UN would have to collectively beg for military action for it to be politically acceptable in the US. This isn't my personal opinion; I think at some point at least a good assassination attempt via bomb is worth the small investment and large political risk. But I don't think you'll see it happen.

[rmgill]

I read what you posted. Its still a war if you're dropping bombs on people.

Nonono. War is the wrong word. Since Obama and Libya, the term is 'Kinetic Military Action'.

[Cinaruco]

I read what you posted. Its still a war if you're dropping bombs on people. And to even drop food aid, the US would have to obliterate any SAMs or fighters in the country as a precaution. No one in the US has the stomach for that post Afghan/Iraq/Libya/Syria. Way before we get to those kind of measures we could do something more indirect like stop selling light sweet crude to Venezuela. But that would hurt US companies' bottom line and likely still would result in an increase in crude prices, so even that moderate level of resistance won't happen.

 

I've no doubt that Venezuela will become the worst humanitarian and refugee catastrophe in the Western hemisphere in a century. I still don't think you're going to see the US do anything about it. I think the OAS and UN would have to collectively beg for military action for it to be politically acceptable in the US. This isn't my personal opinion; I think at some point at least a good assassination attempt via bomb is worth the small investment and large political risk. But I don't think you'll see it happen.

It is a war already Josh, the US is simply weighing his options, as was done in the early stages of Syria.

 

The Vice President of Venezuela was accused of narcotrafficking by the DEA, there are over 50 sanctioned officials, most high ranking. Since Trump took office I have seen more action towards the removal of Maduro than in all 18 years of Socialists revolution. You obviously did not understand what I wrote, because what I said was that if a direct action military option was in the table, it is certainly doable.

 

You know what would put the Venezuelan goverment in check mate? Blockade and embargo any sales of riot control weapons, from tear gas to body armor, without tear gas they cannot control the cities with toxic clouds as they do today.

 

You seem to think Venezuela is an Iran/North Korea level military threat, a war that would involve hundreds of thousands of troops and tanks and artillery and thousands of cassualties. It is not. Even logistically its far more simplistic. Hell, you can have a permanent air bridge just using C-130s from CONUS to deliver anything, with little opposition. Its a pity that no one learned from Syria and learned all the wrong lessons from Iraq.

 

This is why Bush was so detrimental to the right wing in the US, his negligence was such that a nation that has a proud tradition of swatting undesirables if necessary has become so gun shy that a petty despot in South America is seen as complicated as Overlord or Vietnam... Truth is when it comes to this the US needs its mojo back, and not just about Venezuela. The amount of people hating on Trump for telling the Nork King that he is going to blow him away if he does not cut the tough talk is pathetic.

 

Iraq made it so that for the average American, there is no such thing as the correct application of military power.

Edited August 14, 2017 by Andres Vera

[Chris Werb]

 

I read what you posted. Its still a war if you're dropping bombs on people.

Nonono. War is the wrong word. Since Obama and Libya, the term is 'Kinetic Military Action'.

 

 

Truman referred to the Korean War as a "police action", so this trend goes back significantly further back.

[Cinaruco]

A War of Words, I love the irony.

[Josh]

If its a war, its currently a civil one without US involvement.

 

I did not equate Venezuela with those countries, you did. I merely said the US is weary of foreign military involvement as a result of those countries. Venezuela would be a free fire exercise for the US military if it was given the go ahead. I'm saying the political leadership and popular opinion don't consider it sufficiently important to spend the political and economic capital to do so.

 

I absolutely agree that Bush's actions were vastly detrimental to US political will domestically and goodwill/support internationally for military action. Along with the other fruitless military actions since, at this point the world would have to beg the US to get involved. The fact that the US isn't willing to consider any effective sanctions pretty much illustrates our interest level.

Edited August 14, 2017 by Josh

[Cinaruco]

If its a war, its currently a civil one without US involvement.

 

I did not equate Venezuela with those countries, you did. I merely said the US is weary of foreign military involvement as a result of those countries. Venezuela would be a free fire exercise for the US military if it was given the go ahead. I'm saying the political leadership and popular opinion don't consider it sufficiently important to spend the political and economic capital to do so.

 

I absolutely agree that Bush's actions were vastly detrimental to US political will domestically and goodwill/support internationally for military action. Along with the other fruitless military actions since, at this point the world would have to beg the US to get involved. The fact that the US isn't willing to consider any effective sanctions pretty much illustrates our interest level.

Seems you finally understand what I am saying... We are the stage of conflict where the US, as a superpower, is deciding its actions. All seem to indicate to take Maduro out, one way or the other. They might find their Pinochet-like guy in the military.

 

At this point it is astonishing that Diosdado and Padrino are not in the sanction lists, word is Rubio is saving this card for a next of sanctions that will target not only the Chavistas, but their families abroad. There is this compost heap called Hernan Escarra, he had a fortune of billions in the US, until last week.

 

And Josh, I was the one who told you many times that Venezuela is not Iran or North Korea... If you think I compare Venezuela to any North Korea, you need to reread some posts.

 

At any rate, it is almost impossible to visualize a civil war in the continent where the US does not get involved, this is the backyard after all, and we have gotten involved in everyone everywhere.

[Paul G.]

 

 

 

I read what you posted. Its still a war if you're dropping bombs on people.

Nonono. War is the wrong word. Since Obama and Libya, the term is 'Kinetic Military Action'.

Truman referred to the Korean War as a "police action", so this trend goes back significantly further back.

History only goes back as far as Ryan's ethical outrage allows.

[Cinaruco]

Both were Leftist Democrats though

[rmgill]

I was just pointing out how just dropping bombs isn't a war for the mealy mouthed Democrats any more just based on recent history.

 

 

I think it's war if we're dropping bombs.

[Josh]

I was just pointing out how just dropping bombs isn't a war for the mealy mouthed Democrats any more just based on recent history.

 

 

I think it's war if we're dropping bombs.

The law that allowed for fairly unlimited presidential military action was written after 9/11 for George Bush. As far as I know it could be rescinded by a republican majority congress, were it so inclined.

[Josh]

Seems you finally understand what I am saying... We are the stage of conflict where the US, as a superpower, is deciding its actions. All seem to indicate to take Maduro out, one way or the other. They might find their Pinochet-like guy in the military.

I guess what I am saying is, I wouldn't get your hopes up. Outside of one random tweet, no one in the US is openly discussing any action whatsoever, not even another round of sanctions.

[JasonJ]

 

 

Carriers have operated off the coast of the DRPK several times since that crisis started. Is Kim bending over to kiss our ass yet? It would accomplish nothing unless you actually bombed something, along with all of the diplomatic baggage that would accrue. Because the US isn't going to war with Venezuela and everyone knows it, including Maduro.

Venezuela has no large country on its border that acts to guarantee its security. North Korea does.

I'm pretty confident that the likelihood of the US bombing North Korea is still higher than the likelihood of the US bombing Venezuela and that the Chavistas are aware of that.

Well yeah, the idea of using a military option against Venezuela is very unlikely at the moment. The difference of chances of occurring is for different reasons. Should the US act on Venezuela, there is concern, but not so much, to the US to go as far as using the military to the extent of overthrowing the current Venezuela dictator. That concern is much greater with North Korea, it all depends on how China would respond. China may tolerate a limited strike. But they likely will not tolerate military action that aims or risks the overthrow of the Kim dynasty.

[JasonJ]

 

Venezuela has no large country on its border that acts to guarantee its security. North Korea does.

 

I think that this is the key here.

 

My belief is that Trump's message isn't to NK, it's to China.

 

It's one last step saying: "Bring them under control, or we will."

 

As to a proportionate response - Any attempt to bomb Guam, or any other place under the protection of the US can be met by conventional means. It would be trivially easy for the US to put a JDAM or equivalent weapon on any and every place they choose in NK. That could include every place that is or might be a location where the fat one with the bad haircut might be staying. (No, not that one, the one with black hair.)

While China has indicated that it would intervene to protect the North Korean regime, an assassination of fatty Kim by either JDAM or by other means might be a way for the US to avoid getting entangled in a large ground conflict. But may be not. The North Koreans might respond with all out attack and arty bombardment of Seoul. At that point, China ground forces, either openly or by ways of on vacation, might move into North Korea, and in the end of it all, nothing changes about North Korea's nuke and BM program. So China and US negotiations in backchannels that are probably happening right now will define a lot as to how this plays out.

Edited August 15, 2017 by JasonJ

[Colin]

Venezuela is not and never be a real threat to the US and it's allies. In fact it can barely wipe it's own ass at present. The best thing the US can do is lend support to it's neighbours and to support and propose UN sanctions against the leadership.

[rmgill]

I don't see it as a threat. I'm just noting the humanitarian issue that the crumbling state presents.

[Cinaruco]

 

Seems you finally understand what I am saying... We are the stage of conflict where the US, as a superpower, is deciding its actions. All seem to indicate to take Maduro out, one way or the other. They might find their Pinochet-like guy in the military.

I guess what I am saying is, I wouldn't get your hopes up. Outside of one random tweet, no one in the US is openly discussing any action whatsoever, not even another round of sanctions.

 

Seriously? Hope?

 

Man I am talking about possible war in my homeland where my family is... Yeah, I am full of hope, because that is how people act in these situations...