Because Trump 2.0

[seahawk]

Trump is going to win, if the election would be fair. 

[Josh]

11 minutes ago, seahawk said:

Trump is going to win, if the election would be fair. 

I think the EC is a coin toss more or less now. Kamala is easily competitive in all seven swing states and likely has a notable lead in a couple. Trump will lose the popular vote by >10 million votes however.

[Skywalkre]

4 minutes ago, Josh said:

I think the EC is a coin toss more or less now. Kamala is easily competitive in all seven swing states and likely has a notable lead in a couple. Trump will lose the popular vote by >10 million votes however.

Yep.  Now that NC and GA seem to be in play PA is less important so now there are several ways for Harris to win.  A month ago it was Trump's to lose... now it clearly seems to be a toss-up.

[Tim the Tank Nut]

so will Trump get another bump in the polls when your side tries to kill him again or is another assassination attempt off the table because it could fail and then give him a better chance of winning?

[rmgill]

12 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

Yep.  Now that NC and GA seem to be in play PA is less important so now there are several ways for Harris to win.  A month ago it was Trump's to lose... now it clearly seems to be a toss-up.

You sure about that? I am not seeing a lot of Harris signs around HankJohnsonLand. 

[17thfabn]

5 hours ago, Tim the Tank Nut said:

so will Trump get another bump in the polls when your side tries to kill him again or is another assassination attempt off the table because it could fail and then give him a better chance of winning?

Trivia question. If a nominee dies before the election does their V.P. pick take over? If states had already printed ballots saying Trump/Vance would a vote for Trump actually be a vote for Vance for president?

[Tim the Tank Nut]

I don't want to know the answer to that question.

Vance was the wrong tool for the job.  Trump's selection skills are not his strong point.

 

[Josh]

Long story short, the VP candidate is most likely but both parties reserve the right to choose whoever. Realistically since no one else even got close to Trump in the primaries, and especially since the majority of the MAGA majority dislikes Haley, Vance would be tapped. There does seem to be an exception for an incumbent presidential candidate dropping out post convention based on the 25th, but that would not apply to Trump and Biden backed out pre convention (and his VP filled the slot anyway).

 

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/12/politics/presidential-candidate-race-drop-what-matters

[Mr King]

Trump on why he doesnt want intelligence briefings.

 

 

[Mr King]

[Stuart Galbraith]

5 hours ago, Mr King said:

Trump on why he doesnt want intelligence briefings.

 

 

Except, he really was leaking it. It caused a furore with the British Government when the Manchester Arena Bombing happened, and he told the Journalists precisely what was going on, even though he was told not to release it. He even did it direct to cameras.

 

[glenn239]

11 hours ago, Mr King said:

Trump on why he doesnt want intelligence briefings.

 

 

The Conservative leader in Canada, Pierre Poilievre, also declines access to classified information for much the same reasons that Trump declines - it can be turned into a gag order. 

Edited August 25, 2024 by glenn239

[Stuart Galbraith]

This is unspeakable genius of the highest order.

 

[R011]

14 hours ago, Mr King said:

Someone who believes vaccination causes autism or someone who doesn't? Perhaps a different job for him.

[EchoFiveMike]

14 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Except, he really was leaking it. It caused a furore with the British Government when the Manchester Arena Bombing happened, and he told the Journalists precisely what was going on, even though he was told not to release it. He even did it direct to cameras.

 

I know you're an idiot and everything is who-whom to you, but for the rest of the audience, it bears repeating; the unelected pogues don't get to tell the President what to do.  S/F....Ken M

[Skywalkre]

On 8/23/2024 at 11:17 PM, Josh said:

Trump will lose the popular vote by >10 million votes however.

Getting back to this... the Harris campaign is reportedly trying to take a more positive approach to their campaign and move away from the doom-and-gloom of the style of Trump and the warnings of Ds before her.  I've seen several pundits mention how worn out and exhausted the electorate is though no one's sure if a more positive approach will actually work.

Still... I've been seeing that from pundits for a while.  Inflation beat up so many Americans and the reality is most are fully aware neither candidate will actually deliver any meaningful change.  I saw a piece a few days ago where Black males are still polling strong for Trump (20% when in POTUS elections they usually go for Rs at like 8-9%) and it has nothing to do with a belief that Trump will be better but, like the ME immigrants threatening to torpedo Biden's campaign, their support seems to be out of desperation that they keep voting for Ds and nothing happens so they'll give Trump another chance.

All of this to say, I'm sticking to my prediction - I think we dip back down into the 50s for % of voters turning out.  I think deep down inside so many Americans are fully aware neither side will fix anything and just don't see the point.  Historically, in my lifetime, no-voters was always the biggest bloc even in POTUS election years.  (The one exception being when Biden won in '20 when votes for him outpaced those who didn't vote.)

[rmgill]

53 minutes ago, Skywalkre said:

Getting back to this... the Harris campaign is reportedly trying to take a more positive approach to their campaign and move away from the doom-and-gloom of the style of Trump and the warnings of Ds before her.  I've seen several pundits mention how worn out and exhausted the electorate is though no one's sure if a more positive approach will actually work.

Of course. This is weird. They have to institute price controls to fix the great, high functioning economy that has nothing wrong with it. That Kamala has been near the helm of for the past, 3.5 ish years. And which she helped craft when she was in the Senate previously. 
 

[Josh]

2 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

Getting back to this... the Harris campaign is reportedly trying to take a more positive approach to their campaign and move away from the doom-and-gloom of the style of Trump and the warnings of Ds before her.  I've seen several pundits mention how worn out and exhausted the electorate is though no one's sure if a more positive approach will actually work.

Still... I've been seeing that from pundits for a while.  Inflation beat up so many Americans and the reality is most are fully aware neither candidate will actually deliver any meaningful change.  I saw a piece a few days ago where Black males are still polling strong for Trump (20% when in POTUS elections they usually go for Rs at like 8-9%) and it has nothing to do with a belief that Trump will be better but, like the ME immigrants threatening to torpedo Biden's campaign, their support seems to be out of desperation that they keep voting for Ds and nothing happens so they'll give Trump another chance.

All of this to say, I'm sticking to my prediction - I think we dip back down into the 50s for % of voters turning out.  I think deep down inside so many Americans are fully aware neither side will fix anything and just don't see the point.  Historically, in my lifetime, no-voters was always the biggest bloc even in POTUS election years.  (The one exception being when Biden won in '20 when votes for him outpaced those who didn't vote.)

While I do think turnout will be lower than 2020, I think the Dem base will have a very large turnout due to their extreme dislike of Trump, their excitement for Kamala, and Dobbs. A lot of that enthusiasm will be in blue states where it doesn’t matter or blue cities in red states where it similarly does not matter, but I think there will be a lot of enthusiasm for Dem party people. I think enthusiasm for Trump is likely still high as well, though perhaps down from 2020. I suspect turnout for independents is where the big hit to the numbers happens.

[Murph]

Just saying:

 

[Murph]

I think Harris will win since the Democrat cheating machine is well honed, and in place.  The Rs have nothing comparable to the Democrat cheating machine.  I think that we will then head to civil war to stave off a communist dictatorship, or the country will just break apart which is the goal.  

[sunday]

18 minutes ago, Murph said:

I think Harris will win since the Democrat cheating machine is well honed, and in place.  The Rs have nothing comparable to the Democrat cheating machine.  I think that we will then head to civil war to stave off a communist dictatorship, or the country will just break apart which is the goal.  

I know of a pundit that doubts about Samland arriving in any recognizable shape to the year 2033.

[Josh]

1 hour ago, Murph said:

I think Harris will win since the Democrat cheating machine is well honed, and in place.  The Rs have nothing comparable to the Democrat cheating machine.  I think that we will then head to civil war to stave off a communist dictatorship, or the country will just break apart which is the goal.  

No cheating necessary; the majority of the US voting population has voted against Trump by the millions in the last two elections. The EC makes the current environment a toss up, but I think Harris has a better map and more momentum.

As for civil war, I’ve no doubt there is political violence regardless of who wins, though organized movements across state borders seems like a stretch.

[Murph]

Dream on, dream on.  

[Josh]

1 hour ago, Murph said:

Dream on, dream on.  

It is a fact Trump lost the popular vote by 3.5 million in 2016 and > 7 million in 2020. But I assume you subscribe the conspiracy theory that there were millions of fraudulent votes.

[Murph]

Its all electoral college not popular vote which you Democrats always seem to overlook.  I do think there were statistical impossibilities in several states, all controlled by Democrats.  Yes.