Bestest Korea Icbm Test Launch

[Der Zeitgeist]

 

 

“The world will witness a new strategic weapon to be possessed by the DPRK in the near future,” Kim said

 

Interesting. The North Korean satellite program never made much sense for me. Unless they're building a FOBS...

[BansheeOne]

Wouldn't that be a little ambitious? After all even a bog-standard ICBM would be "a new strategic weapon" for them.

 

Personally I hope for a televised live re-entry and airburst over the Pacific. With Little Kim watching from a ship, of course.

[Stuart Galbraith]

What about an EMP weapon? That should be fairly easy, since it wouldn't even need a heat shield.

Edited January 1, 2020 by Stuart Galbraith

[Der Zeitgeist]

Wouldn't that be a little ambitious? After all even a bog-standard ICBM would be "a new strategic weapon" for them.

 

Conceptually, a FOBS isn't all that complex when you have already mastered putting stuff into orbit (which the DPRK has); it's essentially just a payload with rocket engine for deorbiting and some ablative shielding.

 

One advantage would be that such a system could actually be tested in a roughly operational manner by North Korea, unlike long-range ICBMs. It isn't easy to get telemetry on RV splashdowns into the south Pacific when your ships can hardly leave territorial waters without breaking down. An orbital payload, however, could simply be deorbited into the Japanese Sea, giving them actual data on performance of the heat shield, accuracy of the system and possibly barometric or radar fuzing. An operational launch wouldn't be all that different from the testing scenario, it would just be a matter of orbital inclination and timing of the deorbit burn.

 

If Kim is really going for the deterrence capability, such a system would also have the advantage of instantly negating the mid-course ABM system the US spent 30 years developing.

Edited January 1, 2020 by Der Zeitgeist

[Nobu]

Relative to how they have blustered in the past, this latest outburst seems tame for Kim.

 

Neutralizing the threat from his southern border by political means alone has been beneficial to him in various ways.

[BansheeOne]

Conceptually, a FOBS isn't all that complex when you have already mastered putting stuff into orbit (which the DPRK has); it's essentially just a payload with rocket engine for deorbiting and some ablative shielding.

 

One advantage would be that such a system could actually be tested in a roughly operational manner by North Korea, unlike long-range ICBMs. It isn't easy to get telemetry on RV splashdowns into the south Pacific when your ships can hardly leave territorial waters without breaking down. An orbital payload, however, could simply be deorbited into the Japanese Sea, giving them actual data on performance of the heat shield, accuracy of the system and possibly barometric or radar fuzing. An operational launch wouldn't be all that different from the testing scenario, it would just be a matter of orbital inclination and timing of the deorbit burn.

 

If Kim is really going for the deterrence capability, such a system would also have the advantage of instantly negating the mid-course ABM system the US spent 30 years developing.

 

I was thinking that a FOBS needs a stronger rocket for the same payload, or has a lower payload for the same rocket, and they're probably not so far progressed with nuke miniaturization. But yeah, it has its advantages for their specific situation, and the telemetry problem was something that was bugging me, too.

[Der Zeitgeist]

 

Conceptually, a FOBS isn't all that complex when you have already mastered putting stuff into orbit (which the DPRK has); it's essentially just a payload with rocket engine for deorbiting and some ablative shielding.

 

One advantage would be that such a system could actually be tested in a roughly operational manner by North Korea, unlike long-range ICBMs. It isn't easy to get telemetry on RV splashdowns into the south Pacific when your ships can hardly leave territorial waters without breaking down. An orbital payload, however, could simply be deorbited into the Japanese Sea, giving them actual data on performance of the heat shield, accuracy of the system and possibly barometric or radar fuzing. An operational launch wouldn't be all that different from the testing scenario, it would just be a matter of orbital inclination and timing of the deorbit burn.

 

If Kim is really going for the deterrence capability, such a system would also have the advantage of instantly negating the mid-course ABM system the US spent 30 years developing.

 

I was thinking that a FOBS needs a stronger rocket for the same payload, or has a lower payload for the same rocket, and they're probably not so far progressed with nuke miniaturization. But yeah, it has its advantages for their specific situation, and the telemetry problem was something that was bugging me, too.

 

 

Their smallest warhead currently seems to be the 20kt "Disco Ball" design, weighing a few hundred kg's.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/02/24/world/asia/north-korea-propaganda-photo.html

 

The larger ~250kt "Peanut" design should be at least double the weight (note the chart on the side showing how the warhead apparently sits inside the Hwasong14/15 RV):

​

Edited January 2, 2020 by Der Zeitgeist

[Stuart Galbraith]

Could we be making a ghastly mistake, and thats actually the prototype of a double drum washing machine?

[Nobu]

My first instinct was to laugh, but that is how this whole business of Samsung got started. Which itself may end up costing Japan and Japanese more over the long term.

[Der Zeitgeist]

Could we be making a ghastly mistake, and thats actually the prototype of a double drum washing machine?

 

 

There's actually some interesting technical analysis on the pictures I saw in an article two years ago or so. The protrusions on the primary suggest that the weapon is boosted, for example.

[JasonJ]

DPRK launched a couple of short range BMs. They flew about 240km at an altitude of about 35km and landed in the Sea of Japan. The last time they launched missiles was in November last year.

 

North Korea fired two short-range projectiles into the East Sea between South Korea and Japan on Monday afternoon, the Ministry of National Defense said. They flew approximately 240 kilometers at an altitude of 35 km from the North Korean city of Wonsan, Gangwon Province, along the eastern coast.

 

Pending further analysis, the projectiles could be ballistic missiles. The launches were an extension of the annual joint strike drills Pyongyang conducted Friday, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said.

 

“We are maintaining readiness and monitoring Pyongyang’s movements in preparation for further launches.”

 

On Friday, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un oversaw the annual joint strike drills off the eastern coast near Wonsan, a day after Seoul and Washington decided to put off their annual joint military drills over coronavirus concerns.

 

Government sources earlier told local media that the North’s exercises, dating to 2015, were cut back this year, given fewer artillery units mobilized, and were aimed to rally the people there against their neighbor rather than to incite tension.

 

If confirmed as a missile test, the latest launches would be the first by Pyongyang this year since Kim Jong-un publicly warned in January that the world would soon see a “new strategic weapon” in the face of what he called the US’ “hostile policy.”

 

 

Denuclearization talks between the US and North Korea have essentially been on ice since October, when working-level talks fell apart in Stockholm. North Korea went on to launch two unidentified projectiles into the East Sea following no agreement that month.

 

In November, Pyongyang fired two short-range projectiles presumably from a super-large caliber multiple rocket launcher, and a month later, performed rocket engine tests at Seohae Satellite Launching Station.

 

The latest launches came weeks after a high-ranking US commander publicly warned of a potential missile test by Pyongyang.

 

On Feb. 13, Gen. Terrence O’Shaughnessy, commander of the US Northern Command and of North American Aerospace Defense Command, told members of the US Senate Armed Forces Committee that Kim Jong-un could be readying another missile test.

 

“Recent engine testing suggests North Korea may be prepared to flight-test even more capable ICBM design that could enhance Kim’s ability to threaten our homeland during a crisis or conflict,” he said.

 

Local experts concur with the observation that the launches were long premeditated and not organized in response to South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s overture to Kim Jong-un a day earlier, when Moon asked Kim to boost their health care cooperation against the COVID-19 epidemic.

 

“To demonstrate to his people and the military that North Korea is capable of self-defense and solidify their commitment to that end, Kim Jong-un had been preparing for the launches,” Kim Dong-yub, an analyst from Seoul’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies, said.

http://m.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200302000796

[Stuart Galbraith]

I guess thats what they mean by the Balloon going up...

 

 

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/north-korea-blows-up-embassy-near-demilitarised-zone-with-south-leading-to-fears-of-war/ar-BB15xOLZ?OCID=ansmsnnews11

 

North Korea has blown up its de-facto embassy with the South and cut all communication lines in a dramatic escalation of tensions between the old rivals.

In the aftermath, Pyongyang said the inter-Korea liaison office was "tragically ruined with a terrific explosion" while calling North Korean defectors "human scum".

There are fears military clashes could erupt along the heavily fortified and guarded demilitarised zone (DMZ) that divides the neighbours after the North said its troops were prepared to enter the area.

A loud explosion was followed by a plume of smoke as the four-storey office in Kaesong was destroyed days after Pyongyang threatened to take action if defectors went ahead with a campaign to send propaganda leaflets into the North.

 

 

Kim Jong-un's regime warned its soldiers are ready to enter the DMZ to punish Seoul over anti-Pyongyang propaganda leaflets sent into the North via balloons.

North Korea confirmed it destroyed the inter-Korean liaison office, which had been closed since January over fears of coronavirus, with a "terrific explosion", and cut all communication lines with South Korea.

State media said the building was demolished "corresponding to the mindset of the enraged people to surely force human scum and those, who have sheltered the scum, to pay dearly for their crimes".

South Korea's unification ministry said the building was blown up at about 2.50pm local time on Tuesday.

[JasonJ]

Meanwhile, after some issues dragging on, Japan MoD decides to cancel the aegis ashore program.

[Nobu]

I guess thats what they mean by the Balloon going up...

 

 

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/north-korea-blows-up-embassy-near-demilitarised-zone-with-south-leading-to-fears-of-war/ar-BB15xOLZ?OCID=ansmsnnews11

 

North Korea has blown up its de-facto embassy with the South and cut all communication lines in a dramatic escalation of tensions between the old rivals.

In the aftermath, Pyongyang said the inter-Korea liaison office was "tragically ruined with a terrific explosion" while calling North Korean defectors "human scum".

There are fears military clashes could erupt along the heavily fortified and guarded demilitarised zone (DMZ) that divides the neighbours after the North said its troops were prepared to enter the area.

A loud explosion was followed by a plume of smoke as the four-storey office in Kaesong was destroyed days after Pyongyang threatened to take action if defectors went ahead with a campaign to send propaganda leaflets into the North.

 

 

Kim Jong-un's regime warned its soldiers are ready to enter the DMZ to punish Seoul over anti-Pyongyang propaganda leaflets sent into the North via balloons.

North Korea confirmed it destroyed the inter-Korean liaison office, which had been closed since January over fears of coronavirus, with a "terrific explosion", and cut all communication lines with South Korea.

State media said the building was demolished "corresponding to the mindset of the enraged people to surely force human scum and those, who have sheltered the scum, to pay dearly for their crimes".

South Korea's unification ministry said the building was blown up at about 2.50pm local time on Tuesday.

 

This feels like something Kim's sister would do, for some reason.

[Stuart Galbraith]

I imagine the following conversation between Kim and his little sister probably went something like this.

 

[Nobu]

I think sweet sister Kim may have been the one doing the talking

 

For better or worse, blowing up the Kaesong slave labor complex is better than what they have done previously to show displeasure.

[RETAC21]

If you think you need to worry about missiles, you are wrong, you need to worry about the flying Kim:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHrNnDDH6Nw

[Stuart Galbraith]

Im hearing rumours of a possible power struggle between the Kims. Reportedly a few days ago there was a comment that came out of the NK embassy to Russia threatening unspecified action to the US. We saw the blowing up of the building on the DMZ. The NK's have been reerrecting propaganda speakers on the border.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/north-korea-south-border-tension-loudspeaker-k-pop-propaganda-a9581716.html

And now, strangely, they seem to be dialling back asking for major concessions from Seoul

https://news.sky.com/story/north-korea-suspends-military-retaliation-against-south-korea-in-surprise-for-seoul-12013663

 

Is this evidence of a power struggle, or just confused bumbled moves from a jilted lover?

[JasonJ]

In the last number of weeks, the increase of attention that the sister has been getting has been interesting.

[Stuart Galbraith]

I fancy her. I feel guilty.

[Nobu]

Im hearing rumours of a possible power struggle between the Kims. Reportedly a few days ago there was a comment that came out of the NK embassy to Russia threatening unspecified action to the US. We saw the blowing up of the building on the DMZ. The NK's have been reerrecting propaganda speakers on the border.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/north-korea-south-border-tension-loudspeaker-k-pop-propaganda-a9581716.html

And now, strangely, they seem to be dialling back asking for major concessions from Seoul

https://news.sky.com/story/north-korea-suspends-military-retaliation-against-south-korea-in-surprise-for-seoul-12013663

 

Is this evidence of a power struggle, or just confused bumbled moves from a jilted lover?

 

I think one or the other is going to end up out of the picture, as in completely out of the picture.

 

Hey little sister, what have you done?

[Stuart Galbraith]

Oh noes! Rocket man lied!

 

https://news.sky.com/story/north-korea-has-probably-developed-mini-nuclear-devices-to-fit-missile-warheads-says-un-report-12042001

 

North Korea has "probably developed miniaturised nuclear devices to fit into the warheads of its ballistic missile", according to a confidential UN report.

It says several unidentified countries believe North Korea's past six nuclear tests have likely helped it to develop such a capability.

An interim version of the report - by an independent panel monitoring United Nations sanctions - was submitted to the UN Security Council on Monday and has been seen by the Reuters news agency.

It also accuses North Korea of continuing its nuclear ambitions, despite it not carrying out a nuclear test for nearly three years.

The report states: "The Democratic People's Republic of Korea is continuing its nuclear program, including the production of highly enriched uranium and construction of an experimental light water reactor.

"A Member State assessed that the Democratic People's Republic of Korea is continuing production of nuclear weapons."

One country - not identified - believes North Korea "may seek to further develop miniaturisation in order to allow incorporation of technological improvements... or, potentially, to develop multiple warhead systems".

 

 

 

Which of course doesnt mean more effective battlefield weapons. It means they are going to find it a lot easier to develop an ICBM capability.

[Roman Alymov]

"A Member State assessed that the Democratic People's Republic of Korea is continuing production of nuclear weapons."

[Josh]

Why wouldn't North Korea continue to manufacture more weapons? That is kinda of a 'duh' statement. There is no treaty or force that prevents them from doing so.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Its of course inevitable they would continue to manufacture nuclear weapons, as we all know they go stale if you leave them lying around and dont use them up. Whats more interesting is that it says what we already believed, that Little Kim tried to pull wool over Trumps eyes, and secondly they are seeking technology to increase their leverage over the United States by being able to hit the Eastern seaboard. Again as we believed they would.

 

Alright it doesnt tell us anything we dont know. I just like reading about how im right occasionally, sue me.