Bestest Korea Icbm Test Launch

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

[Der Zeitgeist]

This is your regular reminder that North Korea, notwithstanding what Trump or Pompeo might have told you over the past year, never "promised" to denuclearize anything.

[Stuart Galbraith]

But, but, but, I was told it was all 'Largely Solved'?

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/diplomacy/article/2151098/trump-says-north-korea-stand-largely-solved-after-he-gave-kim

 

Anyone think he is going to drop an ICBM in the sea off the US west coast? That would be a nice Christmas present.

Edited December 9, 2019 by Stuart Galbraith

[JasonJ]

DPRK talking smack in response to Trump

North Korea has nothing more to lose, a senior Pyongyang official said Monday, after U.S. President Donald Trump warned that the communist nation could lose everything if it engages in hostile acts.

 

Kim Yong-chol, a former North Korean nuclear negotiator, made the remarks in a statement carried by the North's Korean Central News Agency, stressing that the U.S. should think about how to keep the two countries from clashing, rather than spending time choosing warning expressions.

 

"Trump has too many things that he does not know about the DPRK," Kim said, referring to the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. "We have nothing more to lose."

 

Trump issued the warning in a tweet on Sunday after North Korea announced it conducted a "very important" test at its satellite launch site over the weekend, deepening concerns Pyongyang could restart testing of an intercontinental ballistic missile.

 

The tweet came a day after Trump warned the North not to interfere with next year's U.S. presidential election, saying he would be "surprised" if the North acted in a hostile way.

 

The North's official said that the country has no willingness to reconsider what they "should do in the future" because of what Trump said.

 

"As he is such a heedless and erratic old man, the time when we cannot but call him a 'dotard' again may come," he said.

 

"Dotard" is an expression North Korea used to ridicule Trump when the two sides exchanged threats and insults in 2017, with Trump belittling the North's leader Kim Jong-un as "little rocket man."

 

Still, the official said the North Korean leader has not yet used any harsh words against Trump, in an apparent effort to prevent the situation going to the worst.

 

"But if thing continues to go this way, our Chairman's understanding of Trump may change," the former nuclear negotiator said.

 

Kim Yong-chol also hinted at a possible military provocation by the North in the near future, saying that they would be "irritated" if Trump "does not get astonished" by the North's action intended "for his surprise."

 

"If the U.S. has no will and wisdom, it cannot but watch with anxiety the reality in which the threat to its security increases with the passage of time," Kim Yong-chol said.

 

Trump and Kim Jong-un held their first summit in Singapore in June 2018 and agreed to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula in exchange for U.S. security guarantees.

 

But little progress has been made since their second summit in Hanoi ended without a deal in February.

 

The two sides held their last working-level talks in Stockholm in October, but the meeting also broke down with Pyongyang accusing Washington of failing to come up with a new proposal.

 

Last week, Trump hinted that the U.S. will use military force against North Korea if necessary. The North responded angrily, saying it will take "prompt corresponding actions at any level" if the U.S. uses force against it.

 

http://m.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20191209000817

[Der Zeitgeist]

But, but, but, I was told it was all 'Largely Solved'?

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/diplomacy/article/2151098/trump-says-north-korea-stand-largely-solved-after-he-gave-kim

 

Anyone think he is going to drop an ICBM in the sea off the US west coast? That would be a nice Christmas present.

 

I don't think they'll go completely crazy like this (their ultimate goal is sanctions relief, not starting a war with the US), but we might see a more measured continuation of their previous testing programs. They only tested their ICBMs on lofted trajectories, so they might go for more realistic trajectories towards the central / south Pacific to demonstrate a 10-11.000 km range that would cover most of the continental US. It's very difficult to get telemetry down there, however, they don't really have any suitable ships with enough range.

 

Another option would be testing one of their shorter-range IRBMs on a realistic trajectory, overfly Japan, and go for something like a 3.500 km range. That way they would have demonstrated the capability to hit Guam.

[Nobu]

On the bright side, overflying Japan at this point would probably end the spectacle of Abe trying and failing to meet with this Kim once and for all.

[glenn239]

 

 

I don't think they'll go completely crazy like this (their ultimate goal is sanctions relief, not starting a war with the US), but we might see a more measured continuation of their previous testing programs. They only tested their ICBMs on lofted trajectories, so they might go for more realistic trajectories towards the central / south Pacific to demonstrate a 10-11.000 km range that would cover most of the continental US. It's very difficult to get telemetry down there, however, they don't really have any suitable ships with enough range.

 

Another option would be testing one of their shorter-range IRBMs on a realistic trajectory, overfly Japan, and go for something like a 3.500 km range. That way they would have demonstrated the capability to hit Guam.

 

 

We'll see what happens. One other possibility might be something completely different than missile testing at all.

[JasonJ]

Pompeo is hopeful.

WASHINGTON -- The United States is hopeful North Korea will continue to refrain from nuclear tests and long-range missile tests, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Tuesday, after Pyongyang said it had conducted a "very important" test over the weekend.

 

 

North Korea said the test occurred at its Dongchang-ri satellite launch site on Saturday, raising tensions ahead of a year-end deadline North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has imposed for the US to show flexibility in their negotiations on dismantling Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program.

 

"Chairman Kim personally made the commitment to denuclearize, said there wouldn't be long-range missile tests, nuclear tests," Pompeo said at a joint press conference with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov at the State Department.

 

"All of those are commitments that we are very hopeful that the North Koreans will continue to abide by," he added.

 

North Korea has strongly suggested it will return to testing long-range missiles and nuclear weapons if the US fails to offer concessions in their negotiations by the end of the year.

 

 

South Korean Defense Minister Jeong Kyeong-doo said Tuesday that Saturday's test involved a rocket engine.

 

"We continue to work to try and develop places where we can communicate, negotiation mechanisms where we can talk to them about paths forward to achieve the denuclearization that both Foreign Minister Lavrov and I are determined to help the North Koreans achieve," Pompeo continued.

 

"It's a place where we have overlap on our objective. We need to jointly figure out a way together to assist the North Koreans to get there so that North Korea can, and the North Korean people can have the brighter future that (US) President (Donald) Trump has spoken so often about," he said.

 

Trump and Kim have met three times since June 2018 to try to reach a deal, but negotiations between the two countries have stalled since the collapse of the second Trump-Kim summit in February, with the sides apart on how much Pyongyang will need to denuclearize in order to receive sanctions relief and other concessions from Washington.

 

Lavrov repeated Moscow's call for reciprocal steps by Washington and Pyongyang, saying, "You cannot demand North Korea do everything and right now, and only then go back to ensuring its security and lifting the sanctions."

 

The Russian foreign minister also blamed the current impasse on the reluctance of the international community to respond to North Korea's urgent humanitarian needs due to sanctions on the regime.

 

"Those goods that are not being covered by any sanctions, neither the UN sanctions nor the US sanctions, are very hard to deliver to North Korea because producing companies, as well as transportation companies, are afraid," he said. "They're simply afraid, for only mentioning that they have certain, even though legitimate business but business with North Korea, they can be punished again."

 

Pompeo noted Russia's "good work" in sanctions enforcement against North Korea. He also expressed hope Moscow will repatriate all North Korean workers by the UN mandated deadline of Dec. 22.

 

"These are all driven by the UN Security Council resolutions that the Russians voted for themselves," the top US diplomat said. "There are many North Korean workers that have been in Russia. The UN Security Council resolution requires them to depart. We're hopeful they'll be able to complete that and come into full compliance with that." (Yonhap)

http://m.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20191211000035

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

 

 

I don't think they'll go completely crazy like this (their ultimate goal is sanctions relief, not starting a war with the US), but we might see a more measured continuation of their previous testing programs. They only tested their ICBMs on lofted trajectories, so they might go for more realistic trajectories towards the central / south Pacific to demonstrate a 10-11.000 km range that would cover most of the continental US. It's very difficult to get telemetry down there, however, they don't really have any suitable ships with enough range.

 

Another option would be testing one of their shorter-range IRBMs on a realistic trajectory, overfly Japan, and go for something like a 3.500 km range. That way they would have demonstrated the capability to hit Guam.

 

 

We'll see what happens. One other possibility might be something completely different than missile testing at all.

 

 

Kim dresses up as Santa, and delivers little Kim dolls to all the poor children of the world!

[glenn239]

Could be a devastating ensemble cast rendition of Rocketman by Elton John, with Kim himself singing lead and doing the piano.

[Der Zeitgeist]

Pompeo is hopeful.

WASHINGTON -- The United States is hopeful North Korea will continue to refrain from nuclear tests and long-range missile tests, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Tuesday, after Pyongyang said it had conducted a "very important" test over the weekend.

 

"Chairman Kim personally made the commitment to denuclearize, (...)" Pompeo said at a joint press conference with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov at the State Department.

 

 

 

 

Nope, he didn't. Well, at least not in the sense that the US understands the term "denuclearize".

[BansheeOne]

Well, they tested ... something. Allegedly.

 

December 14, 2019 / 7:45 AM / Updated an hour ago

North Korea says it conducted another crucial test at satellite launch site: KCNA

 

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea said it had conducted another test at a satellite launch site on Friday to bolster its strategic nuclear deterrence, North Korean state media outlet KCNA reported on Saturday.

 

KCNA on Sunday said that North Korea had carried out a “very important” test on Dec. 7 at the Sohae satellite launch site, a rocket-testing ground that U.S. officials once said North Korea had promised to close.

 

That KCNA report called the event on Dec. 7 a “successful test of great significance” but did not specify what was tested.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles/north-korea-says-it-conducted-another-crucial-test-at-satellite-launch-site-kcna-idUSKBN1YI05E

[JasonJ]

POTUS signs bill that keeps US troop levels in ROK from going below 28,500 unless OK'ed by Secretary of Defense.

WASHINGTON, Dec. 20 (Yonhap) -- U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday signed a defense policy bill containing provisions restricting the drawdown of American troops in South Korea.

 

The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2020, which authorizes funding for the Department of Defense, passed the Senate on Tuesday and was sent to Trump to be enacted into law.

 

The U.S. president signed the bill during a ceremony held at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, before departing for Florida for the Christmas holidays.

 

The new legislation prohibits the use of funds to reduce the number of American troops stationed in South Korea below the current level of 28,500 unless the U.S. defense secretary certifies that it is in the U.S. national security interest.

 

The defense secretary must also declare that the reduction will not significantly undermine the security of U.S. allies in the region, and that allies including South Korea and Japan have been appropriately consulted.

 

The new bar represents an increase of 6,500 from the 22,000 level stipulated in this year's NDAA and limits the Trump administration's ability to use a troop drawdown as a bargaining chip in current negotiations with South Korea on a defense cost-sharing deal.

 

South Korean media have raised the possibility the U.S. will remove troops if Seoul rejects Washington's demands for a significant hike in its contributions to shared defense costs next year.

 

The new NDAA also calls for secondary sanctions on foreign banks and companies that facilitate illicit financial transactions for the North.

 

The measure would especially affect Chinese banks at a time when China and Russia have proposed the lifting of some United Nations sanctions on the North.

 

The provision is billed the Otto Warmbier North Korea Nuclear Sanctions Act of 2019, after the American college student who died in 2017 following more than a year of detention in the North.

 

https://m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20191221000400325? Edited December 22, 2019 by JasonJ

[Der Zeitgeist]

Did they tell him what he signed there?

[Stuart Galbraith]

They probably told him it was the application form to apply for a nobel prize.

[Nobu]

Abe may have filled one out already for him, literally.

[JasonJ]

That came out when Trump was defending himself from annoying interviewing reporters some time ago. "Abe recommended me for it" or something like that. I guess its appreciated in a silent way by his fanbase..

[Stuart Galbraith]

'And the 2020 nobel prize for self adulation and tanning, goes to...

[Nobu]

...an Ethiopian, who, minus the self-adulation cluster, actually appears to be deserving of it.

[JasonJ]

Here's a neat image.

[Nobu]

Well, they tested ... something. Allegedly.

 

December 14, 2019 / 7:45 AM / Updated an hour ago

North Korea says it conducted another crucial test at satellite launch site: KCNA

 

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea said it had conducted another test at a satellite launch site on Friday to bolster its strategic nuclear deterrence, North Korean state media outlet KCNA reported on Saturday.

 

KCNA on Sunday said that North Korea had carried out a “very important” test on Dec. 7 at the Sohae satellite launch site, a rocket-testing ground that U.S. officials once said North Korea had promised to close.

 

That KCNA report called the event on Dec. 7 a “successful test of great significance” but did not specify what was tested.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles/north-korea-says-it-conducted-another-crucial-test-at-satellite-launch-site-kcna-idUSKBN1YI05E

 

Donald now has a personal stake in solving the problem that is Jong-un bilaterally and outside of the 6-party framework, based on his desire to show the world what a good dealmaker he is.

 

Now we shall see.

[JasonJ]

Well, no "Christmas gift" yet.

 

Fat-Kim might be trying to look for other ways to get a hold onto some leverage without crossing the line by sending off something larger than a short range BM.

[JasonJ]

 

Several governments officials have made known that Japan intends to develop a new 3rd stage interception system to fit into the current SM-3 and PAC-3 missile defense sphere. Research is to start next year. It is in response to the new Iskandar-like BMs launched by North Korea that featured changing flight path along with rather fast increase of BM capability by DPRK. The new missile is to be developed by modifying the current "Medium SAM" used by the JGSDF. The current Medium SAM is capable of intercepting aircraft and cruise missiles but not BMs. It also has a range of less than 100km. The modification is to improve prediction calculation of enemy BMs that alter flight path. The range will also be greatly increased. It is thought that development will take about 3 years. Additionally, China and Russia are developing hypersonic which would be capable in breaking through the current missile defense sphere. So further development based on the planned modified improved Medium SAM which would feature things like high power radar is also being planned on for development, thought to take maybe about 7 years to develop. Among more contents from the article.

 

 

 

防衛省は、北朝鮮などの弾道ミサイルの脅威が高まっていることを受け、新たな迎撃ミサイルシステムを開発する検討に入った。陸上自衛隊の０３式中距離地対空誘導弾（中ＳＡＭ）を改修し、弾道ミサイル迎撃能力を付与する研究を来年から始める。北朝鮮が開発している変則軌道で飛来する新型ミサイルなどに対応する性能を目指す。

　複数の政府関係者が２８日、明らかにした。完成すれば、海上自衛隊のイージス艦が発射する迎撃ミサイルＳＭ３、航空自衛隊の地対空誘導弾パトリオット（ＰＡＣ３）に続く“第３”の迎撃システムとなり、防空体制が強化される。

　中ＳＡＭは国産のミサイルシステムで、１００キロメートル未満とされる射程を大幅に延伸した改良版が来年末から順次、陸自部隊に配備される。敵の戦闘機や巡航ミサイルを撃ち落とせるが、弾道ミサイルには対応しておらず、防衛省は弾道ミサイルを着弾間際に迎撃できるよう中ＳＡＭ改良版の改修を進める。

　具体的には、誘導弾（ミサイル本体）や射撃管制装置を改修し、敵の弾道ミサイルの軌道予測能力を高度化させることで、新型を含む弾道ミサイルへの対応を可能とする技術検証に着手する。迎撃範囲が数十キロメートルにとどまるＰＡＣ３に生じる隙間をカバーする役目も担わせる。開発期間は３年程度と見込まれる。

　迎撃対象に想定するのは、北朝鮮がロシア製「イスカンデル」を基に今年開発した変則軌道の短距離弾道ミサイルだ。低空で飛来し、着弾前に再上昇するなど従来型と異なる複雑な軌道を描く。既存のＳＭ３は高高度を標的とするため迎撃できず、ＰＡＣ３も変則軌道への対応が難しいため、国防上の大きな懸念になっていた。

中国やロシアは「極超音速滑空ミサイル」を開発している。極超音速（マッハ５以上）で飛来し、軌道も複雑で、現在のミサイル防衛網の突破も可能とされる。このため中ＳＡＭ改良版をベースに、敵ミサイルを捕捉するレーダーの高出力化など、さらなる高度な開発を７年程度かけて行う構想もある。

◇

　政府は北朝鮮による弾道ミサイル技術の急速高度化を「新たな脅威」と位置づけ、「総合ミサイル防空能力を高めていく」（河野太郎防衛相）と強調している。だが隙も多いだけに、０３式中距離地対空誘導弾（中ＳＡＭ）改良版を基にした新たな迎撃システムを開発し、多層的な防空体制の構築を目指す意義は大きい。

　北朝鮮は今年５月以降、１３回にわたり弾道ミサイルを日本海に向けて発射した。日本政府は、このうち４回がロシアの「イスカンデル」に類似した変則軌道型だと分析している。

　一般的な弾道ミサイルはボールを投げたときのような放物線を描き、短距離の場合の高度は１００キロメートル程度になる。変則軌道型はその半分程度の低空で飛来し、最終段階で再上昇するなど複雑な軌道を描く。自衛隊幹部は「今の体制では撃ち落とすのは難しい。早急な体制強化が必要だ」と危機感を強める。

現在の日本の弾道ミサイル防衛は「２段構え」だ。まず海上のイージス艦が迎撃ミサイルＳＭ３を発射し、敵の弾道ミサイルが高高度に達している大気圏外で撃ち落とす。打ち漏らした場合は、高度２０キロメートル程度の着弾間際に地対空誘導弾パトリオット（ＰＡＣ３）が迎撃する。

　防衛省は、その中間地点での迎撃を担う地上配備型の「イージス・アショア」を国内２カ所に配備し、迎撃ミサイルＳＭ３ブロック２Ａを搭載して「３段構え」にする方針もすでに決めている。ただ、配備候補地の選定作業でミスが発覚し、早ければ令和７年度としていた運用開始は不透明になってきている。

　北朝鮮が発射した弾道ミサイルの大半は短距離で、対韓国を想定したとみられる。だが、飛行途中で誤作動を起こし、日本領土に飛来する可能性があるうえ、国際情勢の変化によって日本に矛先が向かないともかぎらない。

　中国やロシアは最新の極超音速兵器滑空ミサイルと呼ばれる最新兵器の開発も進める。露国防省は２７日、音速の２０倍以上の速度で不規則に飛行するとされる「アバンガルド」を搭載したミサイルが初の実戦配備に就いたと発表した。計画中の「アショア」も含めた日本の防空体制ではこれらのミサイルの迎撃は難しく、能力強化は不可欠だ。


　ミサイルの攻撃と迎撃の技術は高度化を競う「いたちごっこ」になりやすい。このため「目」の機能の強化も重要で、米国などは小型無人機で敵の発射地点近くに到達し、発射の兆候を探知する技術を研究している。

　多くの人工衛星を協働させ、敵のミサイル発射を高い精度で探知・追尾するシステムの構築を米国などとも協力して急ぐ必要がある。（田中一世）

https://www.sankei.com/politics/news/191228/plt1912280007-n2.html

[BansheeOne]

We shall be shocked, shocked.

 

Kim Jong Un Warns He May Scrap Moratorium on Nuclear, Long-range Missile Tests

By William Gallo

Updated December 31, 2019 11:58 PM

SEOUL - North Korean leader Kim Jong Un warned he may no longer be bound by his self-imposed moratorium on long-range missile and nuclear tests, threatening an unspecified, shocking action if the United States does not soften its stance in nuclear talks.

 

Kim said there are no grounds to refrain from such tests as long as the U.S. continues military drills and selling advanced weapons with and to South Korea, according to comments published Wednesday in the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

 

North Korea has not conducted a nuclear or ICBM test in more than two years. In April 2018, Kim announced his country no longer needs such tests. That decision helped pave the way for nearly two years of negotiations with the United States, which are now stalled.

 

U.S. President Donald Trump, who has met with Kim three times, has said the North Korean leader personally promised to not resume ICBM or nuclear tests, though the two leaders never formalized that agreement.

 

Speaking late Tuesday, Trump appeared to downplay the importance of Kim’s threats, saying his relationship with Kim remains “very good.”

 

“He’s representing his country. I’m representing my country. We have to do what we have to do. But he did sign a contract. He did sign an agreement talking about denuclearization,” Trump said.

 

“I think he’s a man of his word. So I think we’re going to find out. But I think he’s a man of his word,” Trump added.

 

Earlier, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said it would be “deeply disappointing” if Kim reneged on his commitments to Trump.

 

“He made those commitments to President Trump in exchange for President Trump agreeing not to conduct large-scale military exercises,” Pompeo told CBS. “We’ve lived up to our commitments. We continue to hold out hope that he’ll live up to his as well.”

 

Still a chance for talks?

 

In his comments Wednesday, Kim did not appear to formally abandon talks with the U.S., but did unveil a new, firmer stance toward negotiations with Washington.

 

North Korea will continue developing its “powerful nuclear deterrent,” Kim said, warning of an unspecified “shocking actual action.”

 

“The DPRK will steadily develop necessary and prerequisite strategic weapons for the security of the state until the U.S. rolls back its hostile policy,” Kim said, using the acronym for North Korea’s official name.

 

“The world will witness a new strategic weapon to be possessed by the DPRK in the near future,” Kim said, adding, “We cannot give up the security of our future just for the visible economic results.”

 

[...]

 

https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/kim-jong-un-warns-he-may-scrap-moratorium-nuclear-long-range-missile-tests

[Stuart Galbraith]

As Tomas so eloquently said at the start of this thread....