Troubles In Turkey

[Marek Tucan]

Maybe he's not done with Turkey yet

 

Hey, an idea: Turn it into crowdfunding venture. Have people pledge money, have them vote which country they want interesting shit happening in next time...

[Simon Tan]

USA, USA, USA!

[Mr King]

One of the better Hitler memes I have seen in a while

 

http://i.imgur.com/R8U9cyO.gif

[John Nelson]

Yet another strongman who fervently supports democracy insofar as it provides him the leverage for further power.

Has Hussein Obama offered any pointed criticism of this authoritarian Islamist's rule?

[Cinaruco]

Erdogan, Castro... A good time to be a dictator.

[Panzermann]

Somehow this amateurish inept putsch reminds me of the one in Spain in 1981.

[Mr King]

Yet another strongman who fervently supports democracy insofar as it provides him the leverage for further power.

Has Hussein Obama offered any pointed criticism of this authoritarian Islamist's rule?

 

Last I heard only support. So far there have been two attempts at "springs" in Turkey. Apparently the folks behind them were not radically totally mainstream Islamic enough for dear leaders tastes.

[BansheeOne]

Various explanations for the apparent amateurism of the coup are being made. One is that the plan was much better thought out, but was uncovered by Turkish intelligence on the eve of execution and was implemented a few hours early to save it. This lead to planned forces being unprepared and unavailable, targets like government official not being where they were supposed to, and would explain why the putschists struck on a Ramadan evening with crowded city streets rather than in the early morning by declaring a curfew.

 

Of course a variant with a tendency towards the Reichstag fire theory is that the plans were actually known to the government a lot earlier, but allowed to proceed for subsequent political exploitation while preparations were made to ensure failure, including surrepititous movement of loyal security forces to key areas and possibly letting the conspirators know their plans had been found out shortly before execution, triggering the premature implementation as per the above.

Edited July 18, 2016 by BansheeOne

[Simon Tan]

It could simply be that the compartmentalization made it very difficult to have a wide and deep coup.

[RETAC21]

Various explanations for the apparent amateurism of the coup are being made. One is that the plan was much better thought out, but was uncovered by Turkish intelligence on the eve of execution and was implemented a few hours early to save it. This lead to planned forces being unprepared and unavailable, targets like government official not being where they were supposed to, and would explain why the putschists struck on a Ramadan evening with crowded city streets rather than in the early morning by declaring a curfew.

 

Of course a variant with a tendency towards the Reichstag fire theory is that the plans were actually known to the government a lot earlier, but allowed to proceed for subsequent political exploitation while preparations were made to ensure failure, including surrepititous movement of loyal security forces to key areas and possibly letting the conspirators know their plans had been found out shortly before execution, triggering the premature implementation as per the above.

 

Allowing a coup to run its course in the hope it will fail is quite dangerous. One of those experiments 80 years ago today led to a civil war here. The pustchist may get lucky and top Der Sultan. I think the plotters failed to understand the power of social networks and media and that gave Erdogan a mean to address his public.

[JasonJ]

 

Various explanations for the apparent amateurism of the coup are being made. One is that the plan was much better thought out, but was uncovered by Turkish intelligence on the eve of execution and was implemented a few hours early to save it. This lead to planned forces being unprepared and unavailable, targets like government official not being where they were supposed to, and would explain why the putschists struck on a Ramadan evening with crowded city streets rather than in the early morning by declaring a curfew.

 

Of course a variant with a tendency towards the Reichstag fire theory is that the plans were actually known to the government a lot earlier, but allowed to proceed for subsequent political exploitation while preparations were made to ensure failure, including surrepititous movement of loyal security forces to key areas and possibly letting the conspirators know their plans had been found out shortly before execution, triggering the premature implementation as per the above.

 

Allowing a coup to run its course in the hope it will fail is quite dangerous. One of those experiments 80 years ago today led to a civil war here. The pustchist may get lucky and top Der Sultan. I think the plotters failed to understand the power of social networks and media and that gave Erdogan a mean to address his public.

 

 

Could be that things were getting bad enough that it was worth taking the risk.

[Marek Tucan]

Basically any coup in Turkey is complicated by the two de facto capitals. You need to take both. Also in the time of social media...

I really think one of the major targets should have been power distribution. However... Trying to do it just by demonstration of force (apparently most of the tanks were unarmed and so probably omost of their crews) does not work once someone calls your bluff.

[Leo Niehorster]

Major mistake was not capturing / isolating Erdogan.

After that, it was all over except for the weeping.

[Al]

Where's Liman von Sanders when you need him?

[Soren Ras]

Major mistake was not capturing / isolating Erdogan.

After that, it was all over except for the weeping.

 

Pretty much. Requirement number one for a successful coup is ensuring the leader you are trying to topple is either dead or under your control.

 

Second one would be ensuring that any potentially hostile mobile forces available to support the leader in the first critical hours are neutralized/co-opted in advance.

 

Third, shut down or gain control of all relevant media. (admittedly a far more complex undertaking these days)

 

They failed at all three. So much so that this is going to be less of an unsuccessful coup and more a successful purge.

 

While I am not yet convinced that Erdogan knew about the coup in advance, it does seem as if the purge has been well prepared, with lists of the people to be purged lying ready somewhere.

 

--

Soren

[Corinthian]

We better make a TN's Guide to a Successful Coup book and sell it on Amazon. Will sell like hotcakes.

 

We can further the squeeze the milk cow by making country specific versions. "TN's Guide to a Successful Coup in the UK," "TN's Guide to a Successful Coup in Germany," etc etc.

[sunday]

Curiously, nobody cited that Auspicious Incident of the early 19th century.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auspicious_Incident

[Stuart Galbraith]

We better make a TN's Guide to a Successful Coup book and sell it on Amazon. Will sell like hotcakes.

 

We can further the squeeze the milk cow by making country specific versions. "TN's Guide to a Successful Coup in the UK," "TN's Guide to a Successful Coup in Germany," etc etc.

In the UK it would be easy. Just bring a tank (if you can find one) and a spin doctor to tell you its all wonderful and in everyones interest.

[urbanoid]

"TN's Guide to a Successful Coup in Germany," etc etc.

 

There will be a lot more Ordnung thanks to our coup!

Statistics will be even more accurate!

Our coup is in compliance with EU rules.

Merkele wanted to introduce prohibition and ban Wurst and Sauerkraut, we're here to save yuo!

[Panzermann]

Curiously, nobody cited that Auspicious Incident of the early 19th century.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auspicious_Incident

You expect the media to be versed in ottoman history?

 

I knew that the janissaries had been dissolved under some excuse at least. I should really read more on ottoman history. This incident has some parallels to what recently went down in turkey.

[Soren Ras]

 

Curiously, nobody cited that Auspicious Incident of the early 19th century.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auspicious_Incident

You expect the media to be versed in ottoman history?

 

I knew that the janissaries had been dissolved under some excuse at least. I should really read more on ottoman history. This incident has some parallels to what recently went down in turkey.

 

That was one of the first things I thought about when hearing about the coup attempt.

 

Incidentally, if the period is of interest I highly recommend the crime fiction novel "The Janissary Tree" by Ottoman historian Jason Goodwin. It is a tale of detective fiction set in Istanbul some 10 years after the Auspicious Event and very much revolving around the Event.

 

--

Soren

[sunday]

Oh no, another book to the "To read" list...

 

But thanks!

[Panzermann]

Oh no, another book to the "To read" list...

 

But thanks!

+1

 

so many books on the "to read" stack, many more on the list...

 

 

I am reading about the norse mercenaries in Constantinople at the moment. Same place, wrong era.

Edited July 19, 2016 by Panzermann

[sunday]

So true...

[Panzermann]

back to the erdoganist cleansings:

 

http://www.timesofisrael.com/eu-official-turkey-prepared-arrest-lists-before-failed-coup/

 

... The EU commissioner dealing with Turkeys long-stalled bid for membership of the bloc said it appeared that the Turkish government had already prepared before the coup a list of people to be rounded up.

 

I mean, (that) the lists are available already after the event indicates that this was prepared and at a certain moment should be used, EU enlargement commissioner Johannes Hahn told reporters. (...)

He should hire us as think tank!