Troubles In Turkey

[Josh]

 

 

The Chinese already have everything they want about the F35. That ship has long sailed.

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3893126/Chinese-J-20-stealth-jet-based-military-plans-stolen-hackers-makes-public-debut.html

 

I think personally Erdogan is playing West against East. You cant really view the S400 sale as anything else, and to be honest, the Russian's are in exactly the same boat there as far as security. And that being the case, I dont see him queering either pitch, not unless we force him to.

 

There's no substitute for the real thing. This isn't difficult, Stuart.

 

 

The big thing for the Russians is whether S-400 can see it to shoot it down or not. Given that the IAF has been operating F-35's in Syria for months, and the Russians are operating S-400's there too, I would imagine they already have plenty of data.

 

 

Depends how and where they were operating it. They might have just using radar reflectors on it. The Turks would have the advantage of operating both the SAM and the plane, and knowing exact angles, etc. But in any case the bigger threat to me is that the entire plane just gets taken apart and studied structurally. Russia will have a hard time producing Su-57 in numbers; I don't consider the threat huge that they could bake much tech into their fighters. But it would give them a much better idea of how to shoot down. China on the other hand I'm sure would love to get their hands one, regardless of what information might have already been stolen.

[Josh]

 

This is difficult for me to say, as Washington's hypocrisy of denying Japan the F22 based on security concerns still rankles, but denying Turkey the F35 undermines the structural integrity of the NATO alliance in various ways.

This happened?

 

And we're talking now about giving the 35 to Turkey...?

 

By the law the US was not allowed to sell the F-22 to anyone. I think the law had its roots in concerns of sales to Israel, but also I think there were some concerns that Japan had security lapses in the past. Australia I believe also was interested in the aircraft but selling it there was not considered. Personally I would have been fine with sales to either country.

 

For reasons that I cannot understand, the F-35 is being sold far and wide to a long list of countries that are not A list US allies.

[Josh]

The HMS Agincourt analogy is the correct one in this instance, as the historical consequences and benefits of aligning Turkey or not have shown.

 

This is difficult for me to say, as Washington's hypocrisy of denying Japan the F22 based on security concerns still rankles, but denying Turkey the F35 undermines the structural integrity of the NATO alliance in various ways.

I feel Turkey has already undermined the structural integrity of NATO to a greater degree before this particular incident.

[Stuart Galbraith]

I think its a sad reflection on the fact that, if they hadnt gone cap in hand around the world to get people to lay down money to develop F35, Its so damn expensive the US probably wouldnt have it at all. Then the next generation USAF and USN combat aircraft would have been the Rafale.

 

Compare and contrast with the F22 and the B2, they wanted to keep it to themselves, and the production line died. Then you can look at F15 and F16, both of which afaik the production line is still open. There perhaps is a lesson there, but I dont think congress have quite taken it on board.

 

Even if F35 is cancelled, there is another project waiting in the wings. And of course BAE is itself a substantial US defence contractor these days. And as we can see, Russia is waiting in the wings, so if BAE are waved off by congress, its just going to grease the rails for increased Russian involvement in the new jet, which already would seem to have substantial western technology being invested in it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TAI_TFX

 

Lets face it, we are looking at a car crash whatever we do.

[WRW]

Just finished a months holidays in Turkey - weather brilliant

for Euro/USD earners cost of living has nosed dived seriously

patriotism is strong - will defeat this outside attack etc...this from non AKP people

 

many questions on the back ground of the pastor being held - CIA connections etc

not much mention of Halk Bank investigation

[Josh]

How does the non-AKP crowd feel about Erdogan's economic policies? Or has the US sanctions successfully deflected most of the blame?

[WRW]

I really do not understand the latest major drop in value of the TL - would like to talk it through with someone who can explain it.

the gradual deterioration I understand

 

The dedicated followers obviously blame the US in this case, many others also see it as US initiated aggression.

 

I used be way more familiar with the details of the economy when I lived and worked there - the economy was fragile and depended on no hiccups - this is a hiccup - fuel and electricity gone up about 40%

 

Pay for many lower income also gone up so they will be happy, not so the middle class pensioners

[Josh]

The precipitous drop from a couple weeks ago definitely was US initiated, but the regime didn't help itself with it's reaction - which was to say more or less that they would continue to support major companies with high debt and not raise interest rates. But the central problem is that financial orgs in the US have been loaning out money will-nilly to Turkey since the Fed Reserve quashed interest rates post 2008. During this time period Turkey's private and government sector borrowed from US institutions heavily to support a minor economic boom, especially in construction. The figure I've seen is that Turkey now has 60% of it's GDP worth of debt in foreign currency, primarily dollars and euros. Now the US Fed is starting to push interest rates up again (like they said would a couple years ago). The problem is that all those loans from the last decade are in dollars, so when the dollar goes up relative to the lira, Turkey's ability to pay off the interest and principle gets reduced. A secondary problem is that Erdogan's dictator like tendencies have spooked investors, especially his control of the central bank (he appointed his son in law to run it). So basically a lot of years of heavy borrowing are coming home to roost and being mixed with a heavy does of perceived political instability along with economic mismanagement. The US sanctions were just the cherry on top of a shit sunday. Turkey has $100 billion in loans coming due inside the next year by one count; almost all of it in foreign currency, especially dollars. If the pastor came back tomorrow that wouldn't change the fundamentals of Turkey's currency which are extremely weak. It is no hiccup; it is systemic problem that got forced to a head a few months sooner rather than later.

[WRW]

ok - understand it better mow

 

what happens if Turkey defaults - who loses - US banks?

[Josh]

Apparently the institutions with the highest percentage of their value invested in Turkish debt are European banks in Italy, Spain, and Portugal.

 

I shouldn't have implied it was exclusively US financial institutions that adopted the practice; the EU also had a lot of banks that wanted to make their money 'work for them' and decided with ultra low interest rates at home that loaning to developing countries was a better long term payout. I emphasized the US because it is pushing up it's interest rates (unlike the EU) and this is having the effect of raising the value of the dollar. But the drop in the lira will also make paying off Euro loans much more expensive as well and apparently some European banks have much greater exposures in terms of percentage, if not total value.

[Tim the Tank Nut]

WSJ is reporting that the Germans are considering aid to Turkey

[Markus Becker]

WSJ is reporting that the Germans are considering aid to Turkey

What passes for a government around here ... I need more beer to numb the senses and the nonsense.

[Harold Jones]

You should just switch to tequila, enough shots and you will be able to accept about anything. Then you'll pass out.

[Markus Becker]

Sounds like an excellent plan ... I put in motion 20 or so years ago. Ever since that morning after I avoid shots. Not always successfully but then I'm getting reminders. The first and so far last one 2014.

Edited August 28, 2018 by Markus Becker

[Ssnake]

Well, as much as one can detest Uncle Erdo, a destabilized Turkey isn't in Germany's interest. Whether it's the threat to the banking system in the Eurozone, or the fact that Turks are the biggest ethnic minority in Germany, there's plenty of opportunity to fuck things up over here.

 

Will that make us look spineless and weak? Sure.

Are we more vulnerable than the US in this case? Definitely so.

[Markus Becker]

 

A stabilized Turkey under Erdogans control would destabilize not just the region but also us via the Turkish expats living in the EU. Better a messy end than an endless mess.

[Stuart Galbraith]

A stabilized Turkey under Erdogan is just another Byzantine Empire, for all the good and bad that implies. A destabilized Turkey is another Libya or Iraq.

 

Neither are great options Id be the first to admit. For Europe, one is worse than the other.

[WRW]

Maybe Turkish economy is too big to allow fail

[Markus Becker]

A stabilized Turkey under Erdogan is just another Byzantine Empire, for all the good and bad that implies. A destabilized Turkey is another Libya or Iraq.

 

I don't think so. The two are artificial creations of colonialism where different tribal and religious groups were forced into one political entity. They now revert to their natural state. Turkey OTOH is overwhelmingly Turkish. The country is not going to fall apart should the Erdogan regime fall.

 

 

And the current political and economic crisis is nothing that happened to Turkey as a result of events outside their control. Quite the contrary. It is the direct result of what they have been doing for years.

 

https://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Where-is-the-US-Turkey-crisis-headed-565665

 

 

Let them face the consequences of their actions and see if they chance. Then and only then assistance can be considered.

[Josh]

Let them eat an IMF loan and all the strings that go with it or let them pound sand.

[JasonJ]

Quite a sharp and big decline. Recovery might not be quick.

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=TRY&view=10Y

[Stuart Galbraith]

Venezuela here we come.

 

Looks like it wasnt doing so badly till 2014, then it all went to pot. Funny that.

Edited August 29, 2018 by Stuart Galbraith

[Josh]

I think this surprises no one, except for maybe the 4% figure that is predicted:

https://www.businessinsider.com/turkey-recession-capital-economics-2018-8

[WRW]

" The country is not going to fall apart should the Erdogan regime fall. "

I am not too sure of that - if it FALL hard there will be blood spilled and possibly a lot.

The die hards will want revenge on the traitors/infidels

The PKK group will fight for the centre - ethnic groups in the wrong areas will suffer

 

I will be in the basement

[BansheeOne]

Turkey’s elections show the limits of Erdogan’s nationalism

 

By Ishaan Tharoor

April 3 at 12:59 AM

Ahead of local elections throughout his country last weekend, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan resorted to his usual tactics. He cast some of his ruling party’s opponents as traitors in league with terrorists. He screened the horrific video of the massacres at two mosques in New Zealand and claimed the mantle of Muslim victimhood. And he stirred angry nationalism from city to city in a bid to distract voters frustrated by the country’s faltering economy.

 

But this time it didn’t work. In what’s being viewed as a rebuke to Erdogan, candidates representing his Justice and Development Party, or AKP, were defeated in the major cities throughout Turkey including the capital, Ankara, as well as Izmir, Adana and Antalya. In Istanbul, the country’s biggest city, a politician from the opposition Republican People’s Party looks to have secured a majority of votes, though the AKP is challenging the result, and there are fears of government foul play afoot. Even as AKP officials point out that they and their coalition partners won the most votes across the country, the next days will test Erdogan’s ability to stomach defeat.

 

The loss of Istanbul “would be an especially harsh blow to the president,” wrote The Washington Post’s Kareem Fahim. “Erdogan rose to national prominence as the city’s mayor from 1994 to 1998. The city has since served as a source of wealth and prestige for his party and a showcase — with its sprinting construction, megaprojects and multiplying mosques — for his broader ideological vision.”

 

But amid a grim economic downturn, which has seen the country’s currency, the lira, lose a third of its value against the dollar, Erdogan could no longer hang his hat on the prosperity ushered in during an earlier period of his rule. And his divisive populism failed to secure enough nationalist support among urban voters.

 

“Rather than Erdogan’s imaginary enemies,” noted Omer Taspinar of the Brookings Institution, “Turkish voters in almost all major cities preferred to focus on something much more concrete and visible: inflation, unemployment, recession and a major drop in standards of living.”

 

In many countries, municipal elections are low on the totem pole of political relevance. But in Turkey’s system, they select the heads of the country’s 81 provinces and the cities and towns within them. This round of elections was also a crucial litmus test for the years ahead. For the past half-decade, Erdogan has taken Turkish voters on a ceaseless electoral roller coaster, which included multiple parliamentary elections, a referendum on his ambitions to remake the country’s political system and then a presidential election. But Erdogan, who either as prime minister or president has been in power for close to two decades, does not face an election until 2023. That’s just as well, given the chastening verdict from Sunday.

 

“The loss of Turkey’s major cities has also shattered Erdogan’s image as an invincible politician,” wrote Gonul Tol, a Turkey scholar at the Middle East Institute in Washington. She added that the election delivered “a huge blow to the clientelistic network Erdogan has built over the last 25 years,” which had helped him secure “the loyalty of the business elite and put their resources to work to consolidate his power.”

 

At the same time, the election was the latest sign of a more-galvanized opposition overcoming years of division and dysfunction. “Erdogan was blessed with an opposition of disparate groups that hated each other,” Soner Cagaptay of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy told Fahim. But now they had demonstrated what could happen when “they came together in a meaningful union for the first time.”

 

The deflating outcome for Erdogan adds to his mounting woes. Abroad, he is engaged in a new squabble with the United States over Turkey’s purchase of a Russian missile defense system. At home, he faces mounting calls to enact deep economic reforms.

 

[...]

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/04/03/turkeys-elections-show-limits-erdogans-nationalism/?utm_term=.75d46b7a13f4