Troubles In Turkey

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

If we kill F-35 sales, they will just give a big FU to the US and probably NATO in general, and buy some Su57s or a Chinese equivalent. And we have just lost influence for absolutely no reason, and pushed them further away from a reasonable security policy, unlikely to favour us in Syria or indeed anywhere in the middle east.

 

I still come down to two lessons of dealing with the Turks. One of them is HMS Agincourt, which led directly to the Goeben disaster and the ultimate failure of the Ottoman Empire. And the other is the 8F locomotive, a completely forgotten lesson of how hard we worked to keep the Turks drifting towards the Axis.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Agincourt_(1913)

http://www.trainsofturkey.com/pmwiki.php/Steam/45151

 

 

Ill grant you an F35 is an order of magnitude more important than a Steam locomotive. But the lesson is similar. Rather than being driven by our disdain for Erdogan, we would probably do well to see what alternative strategic partners Turkey is going to turn to, and how little that is probably going to favour us.

 

The F35 is cheap at the price. For one thing its going to cost them an arm and a leg, and every time they whine, we can drop subtle hints about taking the maintenance deal elsewhere. In fact, its about the only reason I can see for doing maintenance in Turkey, to make it something they cant afford to lose.

 

Lets face it, till Erdogan has a heart attack or throughtfully walks into a bullet, our options are limited. Lets not pretend otherwise.

I feel that if Recep gets the F-35, it will just be held hostage like the five Americans already in custody. Give us what we want or we sell it to the Russians. I'm also not enthused with the S400 system getting an extensive look see at an F-35; that data alone would exceedingly valuable to the Russians.

 

There is no amount of accommodation will keep Recep in the fold and I don't see any reason to waste resources doing so. Turkey is a dictatorship and satisfying Turkey directly means satisfying Erdogan, which is a losing proposition. I dare them to leave NATO and accept the consequences that close to Russia's sphere of influence. I don't see a huge downside to that an while everyone has bemoaned the country's strategic importance, no one has articulated what exactly Turkey would do to further destabilize the region more than they have already.

 

 

 

Let him sell it. I cant see the Russians having the money to replicate it. Sure, they could hack it, but im pretty optimistic that we can just change the codes that it uses to transfer information. Ultimately its a big threat they can make, but its going to cost them a hell of a lot of money, because we just turn off the spare parts. They never get their money back, and they have to find the money, in the midst of a recession, to replace it with something comparable. If they can, they will. But I doubt that its their first choice. If it was, they would have already cancelled it.

 

So lets look at it like this. We give them the finger, they ban us from the Black sea. And there is Georgia, Romania and Ukraine that needs us there to keep Russia honest. And meanwhile, he gives free access to the Russian fleet, such as it is, to send as many ships through the Bospherous as they want. All its doing is enabling Russia to behave like colossal pricks in their own backyard, and locking us out.

 

There are a lot of good reasons for Erdogan to suck up to us, and a lot of reason for us to allow him to We need to face up to the fact, we are not as strong as we were, and we can bitchslap Turkey all we like, they have alternative options they can turn to if we make them. The trick is, not to make them, at the same time as not enabling Erdogan more than we have to.

 

A tough balancing act I would be the first to admit.

Edited August 21, 2018 by Stuart Galbraith

[bojan]

Ah, good old British enabling Turkey to do every petty shit they want "Cause Russia!".

And then people wonder why "English" is sort of insult in Balkans...

[Stuart Galbraith]

Personally, I really couldnt give a toss what they think of the British in the Balkans. I just know that every-time there is a problem in this corner of the world, we seem to get dragged into it, and for once it would be nice to learn at least some lessons from history.

 

Or dont. Lets kick the legs out from under Erdogan. It worked brilliantly in Egypt and Libya didnt it?

[Josh]

I don't particularly care about the Black Sea or any nation on it outside Romania, as a NATO member. I consider a Russian amphibious assault unlikely however. As far as I know Russia already can send as many ships as they want through the Bosporus. NATO ships not being allowed into the Sea is of some concern, but I don't consider it paramount or even likely. Hypothetically this is only legal in time of war; more practically it likely would lead to Iran level sanctions being leveled on Turkey by the US, if not the EU.

 

I don't see what Recep "just the Tayyip" brings to the table such that we should placate him. I'm all for the US immediately evacuating Incirlik.

[rmgill]

 

 

 

They indeed have raised hostage taking to an art over there.

 

I disagree. Taking hostages from nations goverened by spineless leaders isn't a challange. Which is what the regime has been doing mostly.

 

 

Isn't this the way the Ottoman empire operated for many centuries anyway?

 

Got us our 1st and 3rd wars in fact.

[Stuart Galbraith]

I don't particularly care about the Black Sea or any nation on it outside Romania, as a NATO member. I consider a Russian amphibious assault unlikely however. As far as I know Russia already can send as many ships as they want through the Bosporus. NATO ships not being allowed into the Sea is of some concern, but I don't consider it paramount or even likely. Hypothetically this is only legal in time of war; more practically it likely would lead to Iran level sanctions being leveled on Turkey by the US, if not the EU.

 

I don't see what Recep "just the Tayyip" brings to the table such that we should placate him. I'm all for the US immediately evacuating Incirlik.

 

Look Josh, I respect your views always, but that is just saying Russia can do whatever it likes in the Black Sea, and presuming that after we allow Georgia, or Ukraine or Turkey for that matter, to go under the bus, that Russia is suddenly going to give a frig about Romanian security. Particularly as they haven't demonstrated many concerns about it up to this point.

 

The Black sea security is interlinked. In the same way, if Ukraine goes under the bus, the security of Poland and the Baltic states is weakened. If we lose Turkey, Romanian security is consequently weaker.

 

Im reminded of what we said about someone in the Cold War 'he may be a son of a bitch, but he is 'our' son of a bitch'. Erdogan doesnt really belong to anyone, but im all for keeping him unaligned at least. We push him towards Russia or China, our security will be the weaker for it.

 

Ill leave it there. I tend to get terminally verbose when I get the bit between my teeth and ive work to do.

Edited August 21, 2018 by Stuart Galbraith

[Panzermann]

Nobody thinks of Bulgaria.

[Josh]

I don't see Russia being able to swallow the Ukraine without a distinct case of indigestion. Furthermore I'm not sure what a few US destroyers would do to help that situation other than be targets.

 

The Sultan is no one's son-of-a-bitch but his own, which is why I don't think any useful accommodation can be reached with him.

 

Let us agree to disagree on this one.

[Josh]

Nobody thinks of Bulgaria.

Fair point, I had forgotten about them. But I don't see the Turks invading, particularly were they to leave NATO.

[glenn239]

Did Turkey have to leave NATO to invade Cyprus? They'll stay in NATO no matter what, obviously.

 

On the Black Sea, I'd guess Bulgaria or Rumania and Ukraine don't want anything threatening USN access there.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Nobody thinks of Bulgaria.

 

My bad. Or indeed any other allies we have in the Balkans, subject to intimidation or destabilization. For example. Montenegro.

 

In the end, it comes to whether one views the Black sea rim (including the Balkan's) as a joined up security problem or not. I do think there is something fundamentally dishonest about saying 'well we are worried about this nation because we have a security agreement, but not that one because we dont'. We only have to look how well that kind of thinking worked in 1938.

 

I dont think Turkey is a security threat, largely because its vaguely aligned with us. But aligning with anyone else could make it one. The history kinda bears this view out.

Edited August 21, 2018 by Stuart Galbraith

[Josh]

Did Turkey have to leave NATO to invade Cyprus? They'll stay in NATO no matter what, obviously.

Which is why I think the threat of leaving NATO is an empty one. In fact it isn't one the Sultan has even specifically articulated; so far there are only vague mentions of looking elsewhere for friends. People have just suggested that could be his reaction, which I very much don't believe.

[Markus Becker]

Nobody thinks of Bulgaria.

Their one chief weapon is being inconspicuous and having the D-Mark!

[glenn239]

 

Did Turkey have to leave NATO to invade Cyprus? They'll stay in NATO no matter what, obviously.

Which is why I think the threat of leaving NATO is an empty one. In fact it isn't one the Sultan has even specifically articulated; so far there are only vague mentions of looking elsewhere for friends. People have just suggested that could be his reaction, which I very much don't believe.

 

 

I would be quite surprised if Turkey left NATO. I don't see the advantage.

[Jeff]

 

Thanks, tried that and it goes back to a blank posting page.

 

Ah, you should probably hit "preview post" at least once before actually posting, then it will take you back to the preview. Before I found that out I just used to right-click copy my whole posts before replying in case the captcha monster ate them.

 

I'm OCD enough to hit preview repeatedly. I do copy before hitting preview or post if I think it might be an issue but it seems to do it even for plain vanilla posts if they have a smilie or a web address it doesn't like.

[Jeff]

 

If we kill F-35 sales, they will just give a big FU to the US and probably NATO in general, and buy some Su57s or a Chinese equivalent. And we have just lost influence for absolutely no reason, and pushed them further away from a reasonable security policy, unlikely to favour us in Syria or indeed anywhere in the middle east.

 

I still come down to two lessons of dealing with the Turks. One of them is HMS Agincourt, which led directly to the Goeben disaster and the ultimate failure of the Ottoman Empire. And the other is the 8F locomotive, a completely forgotten lesson of how hard we worked to keep the Turks drifting towards the Axis.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Agincourt_(1913)

http://www.trainsofturkey.com/pmwiki.php/Steam/45151

 

 

Ill grant you an F35 is an order of magnitude more important than a Steam locomotive. But the lesson is similar. Rather than being driven by our disdain for Erdogan, we would probably do well to see what alternative strategic partners Turkey is going to turn to, and how little that is probably going to favour us.

 

The F35 is cheap at the price. For one thing its going to cost them an arm and a leg, and every time they whine, we can drop subtle hints about taking the maintenance deal elsewhere. In fact, its about the only reason I can see for doing maintenance in Turkey, to make it something they cant afford to lose.

 

Lets face it, till Erdogan has a heart attack or throughtfully walks into a bullet, our options are limited. Lets not pretend otherwise.

I feel that if Recep gets the F-35, it will just be held hostage like the five Americans already in custody. Give us what we want or we sell it to the Russians. I'm also not enthused with the S400 system getting an extensive look see at an F-35; that data alone would exceedingly valuable to the Russians.

 

There is no amount of accommodation that will make Recep a good partner in the region and I don't see any reason to waste resources doing so. Turkey is a dictatorship and satisfying Turkey directly means satisfying Erdogan, which is a losing proposition. I dare them to leave NATO and accept the consequences that close to Russia's sphere of influence. I don't see a huge downside to that - while everyone has bemoaned the country's strategic importance, no one has articulated what exactly Turkey would do to further destabilize the region more than they have already.

 

 

Agreed.

 

The Russians and the Chinese would love to tear an F35 apart, if only to better understand how to defeat it. We'll have spent decades and hundreds of billions of dollars only to give it to the Sultan to hand over to our enemies to neutralize. Madness.

[Stuart Galbraith]

The Chinese already have everything they want about the F35. That ship has long sailed.

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3893126/Chinese-J-20-stealth-jet-based-military-plans-stolen-hackers-makes-public-debut.html

 

I think personally Erdogan is playing West against East. You cant really view the S400 sale as anything else, and to be honest, the Russian's are in exactly the same boat there as far as security. And that being the case, I dont see him queering either pitch, not unless we force him to.

[Markus Becker]

The Chinese already have everything they want about the F35. That ship has long sailed.

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3893126/Chinese-J-20-stealth-jet-based-military-plans-stolen-hackers-makes-public-debut.html

 

Do they?

 

"The aircraft is believed to have been built in part from plans of US war planes...."

 

Maybe and if so only partially.

[Jeff]

The Chinese already have everything they want about the F35. That ship has long sailed.

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3893126/Chinese-J-20-stealth-jet-based-military-plans-stolen-hackers-makes-public-debut.html

 

I think personally Erdogan is playing West against East. You cant really view the S400 sale as anything else, and to be honest, the Russian's are in exactly the same boat there as far as security. And that being the case, I dont see him queering either pitch, not unless we force him to.

 

There's no substitute for the real thing. This isn't difficult, Stuart.

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

The Chinese already have everything they want about the F35. That ship has long sailed.

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3893126/Chinese-J-20-stealth-jet-based-military-plans-stolen-hackers-makes-public-debut.html

Do they?

 

"The aircraft is believed to have been built in part from plans of US war planes...."

 

Maybe and if so only partially.

 

 

I reading an interesting tome recently, that points to the near identical shape of the engine intlet to that on the F35. And considering how complicated it is, it seems likely they had some good tech data to get it right.

 

 

 

The Chinese already have everything they want about the F35. That ship has long sailed.

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3893126/Chinese-J-20-stealth-jet-based-military-plans-stolen-hackers-makes-public-debut.html

 

I think personally Erdogan is playing West against East. You cant really view the S400 sale as anything else, and to be honest, the Russian's are in exactly the same boat there as far as security. And that being the case, I dont see him queering either pitch, not unless we force him to.

 

There's no substitute for the real thing. This isn't difficult, Stuart.

 

 

No it isnt difficult, but ive difficulty understanding why they would do such a thing. They buy 195 million dollars worth of combat aircraft, then risk its viability by supplying it to people whom arent their friends? At best, they ensure Russia has the ability to combat their aircraft, and considering they are the only people whom have recently been in combat with a Russian combat aircraft, for them its no idle concern. At worst, the Americans and her allies find out about them supplying access to F35, we pull the plug on spare parts. And I am not optimistic they could duct tape and string an F35 for as long as Iran has with the F14.

 

There is also cost. Because without Turkey present in the F35 program, the project price goes up. Which means rather than supplanting F16, it ends up supplementing it instead in many European nations. Again, impacting on our security. Britain finds it hard enough to find the money for the 138 we have already committed to.

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/08/12/f35_turkey_rattles_sabre_nato/

 

Look, I dont like Erdogan. I dont trust him, and I loathe the effect he is having on Turkish Democracy. Im just saying, that from every perspective you look at it, this is just one combat aircraft that has already been compromised to some degree. We are overstating fears of Turkish compromise of secrets, as justification for actions that will end up rebounding on us. It always does.

 

 

Lastly, Turkey already HAS F35. In the United States, but im sure as we speak they have already trained up groundcrew to maintain and operate it. So in most of the essentials, if we are worried about Turkey compromising the F35, its too late. They already build major components of it, as you can see above.

Edited August 22, 2018 by Stuart Galbraith

[JasonJ]

 

The Chinese already have everything they want about the F35. That ship has long sailed.

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3893126/Chinese-J-20-stealth-jet-based-military-plans-stolen-hackers-makes-public-debut.html

 

I think personally Erdogan is playing West against East. You cant really view the S400 sale as anything else, and to be honest, the Russian's are in exactly the same boat there as far as security. And that being the case, I dont see him queering either pitch, not unless we force him to.

 

There's no substitute for the real thing. This isn't difficult, Stuart.

 

 

Even if it is not the whole thing. It is still various technologies that they would have had to develop on their own. The one big weak spot from them is the engine. Why should this be taken as lightly as being able to to respond so causally? It is difficult to understand. If the US is going to be so stern towards allies about their contributions to alliance network, but then so lax towards the developing strength of its future top geopolitical competitor, then what kind of signal does that send? If in a very pessimistic mood.. it's like as if the US is pulling a whole 1980s Iraq vs Iran thing. IOW have the outsiders busy competing against each other. Which ever side is winning, just help the other side. Ideals and morals out the window naturally. So the US lets China into the WTO, during those years, news about China hacking has been going on, and now we are here, and again a lax attitude about US military technology being at risked to adversaries. Add on top the cut off of F-22 production and the ban of F-22s for Japan. Wouldn't it be better if China was not only limited by the engine but also limited by not having the other technologies related to stealth fighter development? During the 1980s when the Japanese handed over sub miller tech, the US was really angry, and rightfully so. But F-35 tec to China? meh, no biggie *shrugs*. For real? Difficult to comprehend it is.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Chinese engines are clearly a weakness, but in truth they would probably find as much in value in an F16 engine as they would an F35 one.

[glenn239]

 

The Chinese already have everything they want about the F35. That ship has long sailed.

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3893126/Chinese-J-20-stealth-jet-based-military-plans-stolen-hackers-makes-public-debut.html

 

I think personally Erdogan is playing West against East. You cant really view the S400 sale as anything else, and to be honest, the Russian's are in exactly the same boat there as far as security. And that being the case, I dont see him queering either pitch, not unless we force him to.

 

There's no substitute for the real thing. This isn't difficult, Stuart.

 

 

The big thing for the Russians is whether S-400 can see it to shoot it down or not. Given that the IAF has been operating F-35's in Syria for months, and the Russians are operating S-400's there too, I would imagine they already have plenty of data.

[Nobu]

The HMS Agincourt analogy is the correct one in this instance, as the historical consequences and benefits of aligning Turkey or not have shown.

 

This is difficult for me to say, as Washington's hypocrisy of denying Japan the F22 based on security concerns still rankles, but denying Turkey the F35 undermines the structural integrity of the NATO alliance in various ways.

[Skywalkre]

This is difficult for me to say, as Washington's hypocrisy of denying Japan the F22 based on security concerns still rankles, but denying Turkey the F35 undermines the structural integrity of the NATO alliance in various ways.

This happened?

 

And we're talking now about giving the 35 to Turkey...?