Troubles In Turkey

[Stuart Galbraith]

The bit at the end where it says 'A real NATO ally woudnt have arrested Brunson'. The implication being that arresting an American would imply being labelled as an unreal NATO ally. Its hardly helpful language under the circumstances is it?

 

 

 

Im finding the assertion of what constitutes a real NATO ally dependent on personal relationships with the United States as increasingly disconcerting.

Because the US should just continue to shoulder the load and STFU. That's not what we think the definition of an "ally" is. I can see why Europe likes the idea but we don't.

 

 

That keeps being repeated, the problem is its not actually true. Lets go back 10 years.

 

https://reliefweb.int/report/afghanistan/turkey-contribution-afghanistan-important-us

NEW YORK (NNI): As the US-Turkey relationship has grown during past few years; a top Bush Administration official has said that the increasing contribution of Turkey in Afghanistan indicates the growing strategic relationship between the two countries. "Our success in sustaining and strengthening U.S.-Turkey cooperation in Afghanistan is particularly significant given the severe strains the war in Iraq initially placed on our two countries' relations," said Matt Bryza, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs in his address to the Turgot Ozal Memorial Lecture at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Praising Turkish contributions towards the war in Afghanistan, he said: "Turkey has now commanded the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan twice." Former Grand National Assembly Speaker and Foreign Minister Hikmet Cetin served as NATO's civilian representative in Kabul. Turkey now leads a provincial reconstruction team in Wardak Province north of Kabul, he said. "Security cooperation in Afghanistan thus emerged as a cornerstone of strategic partnership between the United States and Turkey," Bryza said. "At NATO's recent Bucharest Summit, Turkey and the United States joined our other Allies and Alliance partners to renew our long-term commitment to security and stability in Afghanistan. We have pledged to provide the forces, resources and flexibility necessary for success, so Afghanistan may never again become a haven for terrorists," he said. As such Turkey has an important contribution to ISAF and provincial reconstruction. "During the Paris Conference earlier this month, Turkey increased its original $100 million humanitarian assistance pledge for Afghanistan to $200 million," he said. Turkish firms have invested $1.5 billion in projects in Afghanistan since 2002, including schools and mosques, hospitals and health clinics, bridges and water wells. Turkey is also leading an effort to create a special investment zone along Afghanistan's border with Pakistan, which could play a key role in stabilizing that volatile region, he said.

 

 

Its also worth remembering how many Turks died in defence of South Korea, some of which may turn up among those bodies that have been returned.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_Brigade

 

Overall losses for the Turkish Brigade in Korea was 721 killed in action, 2,111 wounded and 168 missing.^[5] Among the losses is the lone Turkish pilot, Muzaffer Erdönmez, who piloted a US B-26 and was shot down over Wonch Ang-nı while bombing the railroad tracks.^[40] A total of 14,936 men served in the brigade between 1950–1953^[1] with about 5,455 soldiers in Korea at any one time.^[41] The United Nations Memorial Cemetery in Busan, South Korea is the burial place for 462 of those casualties.^[42] Two memorials to the Turkish soldiers are at the cemetery.^[43][44]

 

 

 

^{Ultimately a discussion about a dispute between two presidents has devolved yet again into a discussion about how useless NATO allies are. Which airbrushes the entire postwar relationship between Turkey and the US, and not exaclty doing NATO many favors either I would have thought.}

Edited August 20, 2018 by Stuart Galbraith

[Markus Becker]

Stuart,

 

the Brunson case(and the others like it) is IMO just the last drop that made the barrel overflow. Other issues like the S-400 purchase, violations of Iran sanctions, aid for terrorists(i.e. Hamas) got back into the Obama era.

[BansheeOne]

The bit at the end where it says 'A real NATO ally woudnt have arrested Brunson'. The implication being that arresting an American would imply being labelled as an unreal NATO ally. Its hardly helpful language under the circumstances is it?

 

I think it would be widely agreed that real allies don't arrest each others' citizens for extortion purposes, regardless of the involved nationalities. I stumbled a little over the sentence, too, but while this is about a specific person, that doesn't make it a matter of personal relations. Now we all know that Trump and Erdogan are the type who tends to make disputes personal, but the report only talked of governments.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Stuart,

 

the Brunson case(and the others like it) is IMO just the last drop that made the barrel overflow. Other issues like the S-400 purchase, violations of Iran sanctions, aid for terrorists(i.e. Hamas) got back into the Obama era.

 

 

Im not defending Erdogan. The man is a 24 carrot cock, and ive never doubted the assessment Simon and many other's have made of him.

 

Im just making the point, Turkey existed before him, and it will (hopefully) exist after him. Making statements like that is just generating more rubble that is going to have to be tidied up when he is gone. It helps nobody, other than helping to reinforce self perpetuating narratives about the US being unfairly disenfranchised. Turkey has been a useful ally for the US. It will be once again. Probably.

 

In this case, yes, the US has a right to be pissed. Using this as an opportunity to widen splits that other administrations are going to have to heal is not the way forward. Look how long it took to repair Franco/German/US relations after the Iraq war and you will see the point im making.

[Markus Becker]

Im just making the point, Turkey existed before him, and it will (hopefully) exist after him. Making statements like that is just generating more rubble that is going to have to be tidied up when if he is gone. It helps nobody, other than helping to reinforce self perpetuating narratives about the US being unfairly disenfranchised. Turkey has been a useful ally for the US. It will might be once again. Probably.

 

 

FIFY.

 

Erdogan is the typical Islamist. Illiberal, anti-american, anti-semitic,so far he has enjoyed solid support of the Turkish people. If the latter change their mind we can start thinking about rebuilding normal relations with Turkey. But right now they are heading straight towards becoming a hostile middle eastern dictatorship. If that's what they want so be it but we need to make it clear that such a Turkey has completely outlived its usefullness to us.

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

The bit at the end where it says 'A real NATO ally woudnt have arrested Brunson'. The implication being that arresting an American would imply being labelled as an unreal NATO ally. Its hardly helpful language under the circumstances is it?

 

I think it would be widely agreed that real allies don't arrest each others' citizens for extortion purposes, regardless of the involved nationalities. I stumbled a little over the sentence, too, but while this is about a specific person, that doesn't make it a matter of personal relations. Now we all know that Trump and Erdogan are the type who tends to make disputes personal, but the report only talked of governments.

 

 

As said, im not defending Erdogan. But using what he has done as evidence of how useful Turkey has been (and may yet be) as a NATO ally is shallow, deeply shallow. They lost 15 soldiers in Afghanistan. Whom remembers that? Who cares, when soundbites convey all the gravity most people seem to need?

 

They fall out with Turkey after jailing a US pastor. Fair enough, right to be annoyed and all that. Compare and contrast with the language used on North Korea today, just over a year after they beat a US citizen to death. Its not exactly consistent is it? If thats not dependent on a Presidents personal relationship with foreign leaders, then what is guiding it?

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

Im just making the point, Turkey existed before him, and it will (hopefully) exist after him. Making statements like that is just generating more rubble that is going to have to be tidied up when if he is gone. It helps nobody, other than helping to reinforce self perpetuating narratives about the US being unfairly disenfranchised. Turkey has been a useful ally for the US. It will might be once again. Probably.

 

 

FIFY.

 

Erdogan is the typical Islamist. Illiberal, anti-american, anti-semitic,so far he has enjoyed solid support of the Turkish people. If the latter change their mind we can start thinking about rebuilding normal relations with Turkey. But right now they are heading straight towards becoming a hostile middle eastern dictatorship. If that's what they want so be it but we need to make it clear that such a Turkey has completely outlived its usefullness to us.

 

 

Solid support of the rural population. I understand the urban areas are considerably more distrustful of him, and they are the ones considerably better placed to do something about it when they fall out with him.

 

And they will, in time He is a populist leader. Its the fate of all populist leaders to get hoisted form the lamppost when the locals decide they dont love them anymore. Look at Mubarak or Gaddaffi, or any one of a dozen arab leaders that relied on populism to keep them in power. That Turkey is more secular than any of them, wont mean he wont meet the same fate when people start struggling for a living. He doesnt exactly have the military on board to keep the protesters in line anymore, does he?

 

 

 

Just my view. Im not saying we should have a sweepstake on it or anything.

Edited August 20, 2018 by Stuart Galbraith

[JasonJ]

 

 

The bit at the end where it says 'A real NATO ally woudnt have arrested Brunson'. The implication being that arresting an American would imply being labelled as an unreal NATO ally. Its hardly helpful language under the circumstances is it?

 

I think it would be widely agreed that real allies don't arrest each others' citizens for extortion purposes, regardless of the involved nationalities. I stumbled a little over the sentence, too, but while this is about a specific person, that doesn't make it a matter of personal relations. Now we all know that Trump and Erdogan are the type who tends to make disputes personal, but the report only talked of governments.

 

 

As said, im not defending Erdogan. But using what he has done as evidence of how useful Turkey has been (and may yet be) as a NATO ally is shallow, deeply shallow. They lost 15 soldiers in Afghanistan. Whom remembers that? Who cares, when soundbites convey all the gravity most people seem to need?

 

They fall out with Turkey after jailing a US pastor. Fair enough, right to be annoyed and all that. Compare and contrast with the language used on North Korea today, just over a year after they beat a US citizen to death. Its not exactly consistent is it? If thats not dependent on a Presidents personal relationship with foreign leaders, then what is guiding it?

 

 

On the surface, the language used towards North Korea is in direct contrast to everything America stands for. But the whole circumstance regarding North Korea needs to be carefully considered. If the economic and diplomatic fail to stop North Korea from becoming a nuclear ICBM tipped power, then military force may just have to be used. Just an air campaign won't be enough. It would have to go to the ground. And then I'd say a nightmare situation would be China sending in Chinese in DPRK uniform by the 100,000s into DPRK and make a ground occupation of North Korea a real nightmare. I think that potential is there. It would be heavy drain on ROK and US ground forces. If the US has its stamina being drained in North Korea, what does that mean for US commitments else where? If the flattery language can somehow squeeze in DPRK's nuclear programed being kept in limbo, then it's probably worth it, as irritating as it may be.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Jason, im not disagreeing with your assessment on the importance of North Korea being denuclearized. Im just reflecting on Turkey, however its led, is equally important and always was vitally important strategically to European and middle eastern security in multiple era's. in WW1. It was in WW2, in so far as we kept it out. It was important in the Cold War, and it was important (if not actually alway's useful) in the war on terror. And it still is for that matter, if only for keeping them out of Russia's orbit. You dont have to like Turkey's leadership. In fact all over all that time we rarely HAVE liked their leadership.

 

I just object to the way foreign policy seems to be handled these days. Its banal, sarky, and for that matter, increasingly inconsistent. You interact with allies by engaging with them, not allowing pithy little remarks about how they arent 'real' allies, whatever that means. Yes, this seems a low level functionary. That its tolerated at all tell's its own story.

Edited August 20, 2018 by Stuart Galbraith

[Mistral]

The Sultan wanted the fine to Halkbank which was found guilty of helping Iran circumvent the US sanctions erased in exchange for Branson. The Donald said no way.

This was at a time when US soldiers were getting killed in Iraq with cash provided from Turkey to Shia insurgents with gold from Iran.

 

Estimates on the pending fine are a couple of billions, so this would have been a world record ransom deal from a close ally if it went through.

 

And Stuart in case you did not know, Halkbank is a fully state owned bank. With allies like these the US is in very good hands.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-turkey-zarrab/turkish-gold-trader-details-money-laundering-scheme-for-iran-idUSKBN1DT2DL

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gas-gold-turkey-iran-scheme-explained-151517687.html

[Josh]

As far as I'm concerned, Turkey is no ally and will not be missed. It's not clear to me what course of action they could take to be more antagonistic outside actively hosting Russian and Iranian military units within their borders; something I don't think the Sultan would accept even were he actively kicked out of NATO (there is no mechanism for that however). Until Erdogan is gone, which I don't think happens until he's dead (I discount him allowing a fair election unless it is clear he will win), Turkey is a hostile power.

[Jeff]

The damned software ate my post with a security check (WTF is it with that crap?) so I'll just say I agree with what the others have said with regards to an Islamic Turkey under Erdogan and it's only going to get worse. Sorry Stuart, you're on the wrong side of this one.

[Mikel2]

Any new perspectives on that "coup" two summers ago?

[Skywalkre]

The damned software ate my post with a security check (WTF is it with that crap?) so I'll just say I agree with what the others have said with regards to an Islamic Turkey under Erdogan and it's only going to get worse. Sorry Stuart, you're on the wrong side of this one.

Aren't we still on track to deliver F-35s to them? Would seem the wrong move with how things are going. Apparently their first pilots are already over at Luke training on them. Historically hasn't their military been more closely aligned with NATO countries than the government and people? Is this basically the reason why Mattis (my understanding is the final decision lies with him) will apparently allow the transfer?

[Josh]

Any new perspectives on that "coup" two summers ago?

Same as I had then: that I'm sorry it didn't work.

[Josh]

 

The damned software ate my post with a security check (WTF is it with that crap?) so I'll just say I agree with what the others have said with regards to an Islamic Turkey under Erdogan and it's only going to get worse. Sorry Stuart, you're on the wrong side of this one.

Aren't we still on track to deliver F-35s to them? Would seem the wrong move with how things are going. Apparently their first pilots are already over at Luke training on them. Historically hasn't their military been more closely aligned with NATO countries than the government and people? Is this basically the reason why Mattis (my understanding is the final decision lies with him) will apparently allow the transfer?

 

 

Delivery of the first two has been suspended pending the delivery of reports to Congress. At this point the entire F-35 deal is somewhat in doubt. There is bipartisan support for denying them access to the F-35. Mattis is firmly on the side of deliery; me personally I don't think the tech should be allowed in Recep's hands less it just be yet another bargaining chip he uses to get what he wants, like the current hostages he has from nearly a dozen countries.

[Mistral]

 

The damned software ate my post with a security check (WTF is it with that crap?) so I'll just say I agree with what the others have said with regards to an Islamic Turkey under Erdogan and it's only going to get worse. Sorry Stuart, you're on the wrong side of this one.

 

Aren't we still on track to deliver F-35s to them? Would seem the wrong move with how things are going. Apparently their first pilots are already over at Luke training on them. Historically hasn't their military been more closely aligned with NATO countries than the government and people? Is this basically the reason why Mattis (my understanding is the final decision lies with him) will apparently allow the transfer?

The military has been purged by Erdogan, its his army now.

 

A couple of days ago, one of the F16 pilots that escorted his jet on the night of the coup was arrested because of supposed links to Gullen. This was done 2 years after the coup!

 

He has arrested several thousand officers and NCOs so far, and has condemed around 1,700 hundred to life in prison. The airforce was badly hit, at some point the ratio of pilots to aircraft was below 1 to 1.

 

Something like 10% of civil servants has either been detained or dismissed. Judiciary is in his pocket and can charge anyone with anything, see cases of all those foreign hostages.

[BansheeOne]

The damned software ate my post with a security check (WTF is it with that crap?) so I'll just say I agree with what the others have said with regards to an Islamic Turkey under Erdogan and it's only going to get worse. Sorry Stuart, you're on the wrong side of this one.

 

Just hit the return button to before the security check and do it again till it works. Usually takes only one more try, though sometimes it will be a few.

 

I'm conflicted on Turkey's NATO membership.They and other members like Greece and Portugal have been effective dictatorships and difficult partners at times before, and the geopolitics that made the rest overlook it haven't changed. Turkey is still a strategic cornerstone, providing a buffer with and bases for operations in Russia's southern sphere and the Middle East. Even if you were okay with losing that, you don't want it to go over to Russia or some Islamic axis to be turned around on you.

 

OTOH, Erdogan's current behavior is unprecedented for a NATO partner, and a turn towards Islamism is something else than a plain old military dictatorship - which is usually great to do military business with, democratic values and human rights be damned. If Erdo is going president for life, we are faced with an indeterminate period of at best unpredictable Turkish politics, and no guarantee his successors will be any better. If the country's active assets for NATO are replaced by hostility, at some point you gotta ask if the negative outweighs the positive, though as noted its strategic position is a huge asset in itself.

 

Of course people are rightly pointing out Turkey cannot simply be kicked out anyway, so the question following from the above is: If Erdogan wanted to pull out, should we attempt to persuade him otherwise - which is doubtlessly going to be an unenjoyable experience possibly even exceeding the current extortion tactics - or wish him well and not to let the door hit him as he leaves?

[JasonJ]

Well if Turkey must go, it's probably safe to assume that Greece will be committed in being a wall between Turkey and the rest of Europe even though Greece is small for such a role and would need a lot of deterrance assistance.

[Jeff]

Just hit the return button to before the security check and do it again till it works. Usually takes only one more try, though sometimes it will be a few.

 

Thanks, tried that and it goes back to a blank posting page.

[Jeff]

I'd be curious what Mattis' reasoning is because I think he's dead wrong.

[Stuart Galbraith]

If we kill F-35 sales, they will just give a big FU to the US and probably NATO in general, and buy some Su57s or a Chinese equivalent. And we have just lost influence for absolutely no reason, and pushed them further away from a reasonable security policy, unlikely to favour us in Syria or indeed anywhere in the middle east.

 

I still come down to two lessons of dealing with the Turks. One of them is HMS Agincourt, which led directly to the Goeben disaster and the ultimate failure of the Ottoman Empire. And the other is the 8F locomotive, a completely forgotten lesson of how hard we worked to keep the Turks drifting towards the Axis.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Agincourt_(1913)

http://www.trainsofturkey.com/pmwiki.php/Steam/45151

 

 

Ill grant you an F35 is an order of magnitude more important than a Steam locomotive. But the lesson is similar. Rather than being driven by our disdain for Erdogan, we would probably do well to see what alternative strategic partners Turkey is going to turn to, and how little that is probably going to favour us.

 

The F35 is cheap at the price. For one thing its going to cost them an arm and a leg, and every time they whine, we can drop subtle hints about taking the maintenance deal elsewhere. In fact, its about the only reason I can see for doing maintenance in Turkey, to make it something they cant afford to lose.

 

Lets face it, till Erdogan has a heart attack or throughtfully walks into a bullet, our options are limited. Lets not pretend otherwise.

Edited August 21, 2018 by Stuart Galbraith

[BansheeOne]

Thanks, tried that and it goes back to a blank posting page.

 

Ah, you should probably hit "preview post" at least once before actually posting, then it will take you back to the preview. Before I found that out I just used to right-click copy my whole posts before replying in case the captcha monster ate them.

[urbanoid]

Troubles? When gay bombs fall, there will be more trouble. Turkey will get the big gay.

 

 

U.S. plans to drop ‘gay bombs’ on enemies, Turkish columnist says

A columnist for a Turkish pro-government newspaper said the United States planned to drop bombs on its enemies that change their targets’ sexual preferences.

“When the United States is an enemy of a country and plans to go to war, it plans either to drop a bomb that will change the sexual preferences of that country’s population or one that will kill them all,” wrote Mehmet Barlas in his Monday column for the high-circulation Sabah newspaper.

The original “gay bomb” had been planned as an alternative to the atomic bombs dropped on the Japanese cities of Nagasaki and Hiroshima during World War Two, Barlas explained, quoting documents he said had been recently declassified.

The Sabah columnist went on to speculate that the United States aims to use similar chemical weapons to sterilise large numbers of people in order to prevent overpopulation. Some of these chemicals could be transmitted through vaccines, said Barlas.

The 2003 Iraq War and the instability caused by the Arab Spring uprisings are more instances of “Deep America” and its attempts to control the world population, he added.

Turkish-U.S. relations have been under sustained tension over a series of disputes, including the detention in Turkey of U.S. citizens and employees including Andrew Brunson, a pastor held since Oct. 2016 on terror charges.

The United States imposed sanctions and metal tariff hikes on Turkey in response to the detentions, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has blamed the lira’s subsequent nosedive on what he calls an economic war.

https://ahvalnewstr.com/oddities/us-plans-drop-gay-bombs-enemies-turkish-columnist-says

[Josh]

If we kill F-35 sales, they will just give a big FU to the US and probably NATO in general, and buy some Su57s or a Chinese equivalent. And we have just lost influence for absolutely no reason, and pushed them further away from a reasonable security policy, unlikely to favour us in Syria or indeed anywhere in the middle east.

 

I still come down to two lessons of dealing with the Turks. One of them is HMS Agincourt, which led directly to the Goeben disaster and the ultimate failure of the Ottoman Empire. And the other is the 8F locomotive, a completely forgotten lesson of how hard we worked to keep the Turks drifting towards the Axis.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Agincourt_(1913)

http://www.trainsofturkey.com/pmwiki.php/Steam/45151

 

 

Ill grant you an F35 is an order of magnitude more important than a Steam locomotive. But the lesson is similar. Rather than being driven by our disdain for Erdogan, we would probably do well to see what alternative strategic partners Turkey is going to turn to, and how little that is probably going to favour us.

 

The F35 is cheap at the price. For one thing its going to cost them an arm and a leg, and every time they whine, we can drop subtle hints about taking the maintenance deal elsewhere. In fact, its about the only reason I can see for doing maintenance in Turkey, to make it something they cant afford to lose.

 

Lets face it, till Erdogan has a heart attack or throughtfully walks into a bullet, our options are limited. Lets not pretend otherwise.

I feel that if Recep gets the F-35, it will just be held hostage like the five Americans already in custody. Give us what we want or we sell it to the Russians. I'm also not enthused with the S400 system getting an extensive look see at an F-35; that data alone would exceedingly valuable to the Russians.

 

There is no amount of accommodation that will make Recep a good partner in the region and I don't see any reason to waste resources doing so. Turkey is a dictatorship and satisfying Turkey directly means satisfying Erdogan, which is a losing proposition. I dare them to leave NATO and accept the consequences that close to Russia's sphere of influence. I don't see a huge downside to that - while everyone has bemoaned the country's strategic importance, no one has articulated what exactly Turkey would do to further destabilize the region more than they have already.

Edited August 21, 2018 by Josh