Meanwhile In The Baltic Republics And Poland...

[Chris Werb]

I don't think maintaining a modern warplane in the field would be as easy as at a base, but those that do it have practiced it and the F-35B was designed to operate from FOBs as a design criterion or subset thereof. The Finns intend to do so with F/A-18s and the Swedes with the Gripen (although they have a rather different concept of a base than we do anyway). The thing is, they wouldn't have to do it for long for obvious reasons. I think the F-35 is meant to have a much more robust/maintainable coating than the B-2A anyway.

 

There is a really nice site with clickable google maps co-ords for active Russian airbases, here. It looks comprehensive, although I found a recently abandoned base that was not on there just by going over the satellite imagery on google maps. I can't remember the name, but it was in Leningrad region to the East of Leningrad and had been home to an IL-76 regiment that disbanded as recently as 2009. It was intended to become an airport, but nothing happened and it looks like it would make a great Fallout 4 themed airsoft/paintball site. It had no hardened shelters as you would expect from a transport base.

[Damian]

And it seems that Raytheon gonna get the contract for "Wisła" AAD/ABM system with their Patriot.

 

http://wpolityce.pl/polityka/299366-mon-doszlo-do-porozumienia-ws-systemu-patriot-macierewicz-polski-system-obrony-bedzie-realizowalo-przedsiebiorstwo-raytheon-i-rzad-amerykanski?strona=1

 

It's said that we can get even above 50% of technology transfer.

 

PS. As for aircrafts, F-16's can operate from road airfields, contrary to popular myth that they can't.

Edited July 4, 2016 by Damian

[bd1]

Well there is a very simple solution to Baltic states problems with Russian minority... if Russia is so close, just behind a border, and cares so much about Russians abroad, why they just won't return to Russia? Simple solution, nobody is harmed, problem solved.

 

And I am certain that Russian goverment who cares so much about wellbeing of Russians abroad will help them!

 

Oh wait, we all know it won't happen because it's not about wellbeing of tools in Putins grand game.

but they don´t want to go . that would mean living in ...russia. and afaik , russian in russia know this and seriously detest our local russians for this . at least according to my former colleage, who´s husband got stranded in russia when his car broke down. although he even had st. george ribbons on rearview mirror

[Damian]

So, they are just only tools. The sooner they realize that, and rethink their position, the better for them.

 

Good we do not have any major minorities that are troublesome.

[bd1]

 

Its perfectly true they dont have a hostile Russian population in Estonia and Latvia aspiring to join Russia. The cynic would point out, they didnt have one in Ukraine either till the Green men turned up.

 

So in those kind of circumstances they will need a force there to 'peacekeep', whilst they negotiate a solution. The interesting thing is, that im told in the Russian language the word for peacekeeping is the same for peacemaking. Which kind of explains the vigorous nature of operations in Syria I suppose.

From what I read from Facebook page of Estonian friend of mine (ethnic Russian, born in Estonia, educated in UK, fluent English and Estonian speaker, Estonia citizen, construction business owner) - it is not exactly the case now. Estonian state propaganda (very awkward) supposed to “deal with Russian propaganda” is actually making local Russians angry (especially when Estonians are bringing in pro-Western liberals, loaded with their social Darvinism, from Moscow to teach local Russians what they have to think about this or that); More over, it is radicalizing local Russians. Russians are not afraid of raising his voice now (especially post-Soviet generation born and raised in Estonia) – they do not consider ethnic Estonians to have more rights than local Russians just because of their ethnicity, and decades of being told to be second class people are bringing its fruits. No they are not particularly pro-Russian (meaning not “Russian unionists”) but if something happens it will be the only choice. Protests in Ukraine also started with demands for more rights and regional autonomy – but when bullets start flying things are becoming different.

 

Re “peacekeeping –peacemaking” – “миротворец» (peacemaker) is single word in Rus, so it is usually used to describe peacekeepers, but official word for peacekeeping is “операции по поддержанию мира» (operations for supporting\maintaining peace) http://www.un.org/ru/peacekeeping/about/dpko/

 

and greatest help for estonia is russian goverment and the seccesionist enclaves in east ukr. - if you get frisky, your city is going to be in ruins, russia will bomb you without blink of an eye, your corpse will be on altar of motherland

 

 

btw, could you ask your friend about ´´they do not consider ethnic Estonians to have more rights than local Russians just because of their ethnicity, ´´ - what rights are they missing /talking about?

[Chris Werb]

Damian, I did a few searches using translate on Polish F-16s operating from roads and couldn't find anything apart from a news article that I think may have been about one making an emergency landing on one. However, I did not think that proved a negative.

 

I'm not knocking Patriot, but I think they were thinking of upgrading it to give it a 360 engagement capability using tec. from the MEADS system. It also gives you good BMD capability and US/NATO interoperability. My main worry about it is that it doesn't have the aforementioned 360 capability and it's essentially static or relocatable at best, even when mounted on 8x8 trucks as the Germans do. If I were you I would also be looking at a sensor agnostic, dispersed system - something like the new US AIM9-X/Multi Mission Launcher/Sentinel or British CAMM-L/Swedish Ericson Giraffe combos, purely from a survivability standpoint.

 

Stuart, have a butcher's at this. (Centre of screen). Two rarities here too at same base. You have to admit Russian air bases are A LOT more fun to look at than NATO ones

[Damian]

Chris.

 

1. Patriot, we gonna get modernized variant with IBCS command centers and 360 degrees radars + of course PAC-2 and PAC-3 missiles.

 

2. Lower tier AAD will be realized by "Narew" system, one of competing designs is NASAMS.

[Chris Werb]

Chris.

 

1. Patriot, we gonna get modernized variant with IBCS command centers and 360 degrees radars + of course PAC-2 and PAC-3 missiles.

 

2. Lower tier AAD will be realized by "Narew" system, one of competing designs is NASAMS.

 

Awesome!

[Chris Werb]

Well this is interesting Damian. CAMM-ER was news to me. I wonder if it will fit the CAMM launchers we are putting on our Type 23 frigates and MAN trucks? I somehow doubt it though. My main concern about CAMM was it's short range (albeit c. 3X longer than the missile it is replacing).

[Damian]

Yeah AFAIK CAMM-ER is also considered. Well dunno, we gonna need to wait, "Wisła" have priority right now.

 

You need to remember that Patriot become favorite of the army after they get data of competing systems and made simulations based on them. Also our soldiers had few opportunities to test Patriot. MEADS was also a favorite but after US bailed out, it's future got uncertain and we are not interested in funding such high risk program.

 

SAMP/T was... well considered as not meeting requirements in ABM area.

 

PS. http://www.defence24.com/388043,new-vshorad-system-to-be-purchased-this-year-grom-missile-successor

Edited July 4, 2016 by Damian

[Stuart Galbraith]

Incidentally, I posted this on the New Cold war thread, and thought it was pretty interesting. In short, the US Army has too many air defence missions, and not nearly enough to go round.

[Chris Werb]

That all sounds very logical Damian.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Damian, I did a few searches using translate on Polish F-16s operating from roads and couldn't find anything apart from a news article that I think may have been about one making an emergency landing on one. However, I did not think that proved a negative.

 

I'm not knocking Patriot, but I think they were thinking of upgrading it to give it a 360 engagement capability using tec. from the MEADS system. It also gives you good BMD capability and US/NATO interoperability. My main worry about it is that it doesn't have the aforementioned 360 capability and it's essentially static or relocatable at best, even when mounted on 8x8 trucks as the Germans do. If I were you I would also be looking at a sensor agnostic, dispersed system - something like the new US AIM9-X/Multi Mission Launcher/Sentinel or British CAMM-L/Swedish Ericson Giraffe combos, purely from a survivability standpoint.

 

Stuart, have a butcher's at this. (Centre of screen). Two rarities here too at same base. You have to admit Russian air bases are A LOT more fun to look at than NATO ones

I generally agree, but have a look sometime at the HAS area at Boscombe Down. You will see an aviation museum with a LOT of very interesting aircraft.

 

Ok, the X29 clone has me beat, was that Mig that build that? I cant remember. But the other is Myasishchev VM-T Atlant. I had to admit i thought it was a Bison, till I saw it had twin rudders. Aircraft next to it, isnt that the Soviet U2?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myasishchev_M-55

 

Interesting to note how many apparently derelict TU160s on the first link there at Zukovskiy. Surely they cant all be prototypes?

[Stuart Galbraith]

Incidentally there is an interesting article here on F35 forward basing.

http://aviationweek.com/blog/marines-shift-f-35-deployment-plans

[Chris Werb]

Stuart, I have that US Army missile defence conference up on another browser now. It's very good.

[wendist]

The "X29 clone" is probably a SU-47 is it not?

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-47

[Tantalwz88]

Chris.

 

1. Patriot, we gonna get modernized variant with IBCS command centers and 360 degrees radars + of course PAC-2 and PAC-3 missiles.

 

2. Lower tier AAD will be realized by "Narew" system, one of competing designs is NASAMS.

Don't forget the Low cost interceptor proposed for Wisła by Raytheon today.

[Chris Werb]

The "X29 clone" is probably a SU-47 is it not?

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-47

 

That's what I thought it was.

[Chris Werb]

Incidentally there is an interesting article here on F35 forward basing.

http://aviationweek.com/blog/marines-shift-f-35-deployment-plans

 

That WAS interesting. One point though.

 

"They will relocate every 24-48 hours, which is estimated to be inside an enemy's targeting cycle."

 

A very dubious assumption IMHO, especially moving forward.

[Stuart Galbraith]

The "X29 clone" is probably a SU-47 is it not?

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-47

Of course, silly me. I was getting it mixed up with mig 1.42.

 

Interesting thing, apparently the latter might surface after all. Its being used as a basis (scaled up) for the Mig31 replacement, or so the rumour mill says.

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

Incidentally there is an interesting article here on F35 forward basing.

http://aviationweek.com/blog/marines-shift-f-35-deployment-plans

 

That WAS interesting. One point though.

 

"They will relocate every 24-48 hours, which is estimated to be inside an enemy's targeting cycle."

 

A very dubious assumption IMHO, especially moving forward.

 

 

Well the Russians can see the problems in coms, and they seem to be putting a lot of money into it. With their emphasis on cyber warfare, they can probably see the benefits of secure systems at least as clearly as ourselves.They are already fielding a new system with VDV, and possibly it will make it to the wider army in time too. Also, despite the current limit in drone range, they are working towards something comparable to Predator. In fact, im sure I read on Russia defence.net, they were talking of developing short range drones they could mount in a 300mm rocket, that deploys after travelling 100 klicks down range. Thats not a perfect solution, but would doubtless prove highly useful.

 

The unfortunately problem is, we seem to have got stuck in a mindset where are enemies are either the Soviet Union, that thought in a straight line, or Saddams Iraq, which demanded asking the dictator anything at all. I can certainly see armies of the future doing better than that, not least Russia.

Edited July 5, 2016 by Stuart Galbraith

[Chris Werb]

If the Russians can have artillery impacting 10 minutes after target acquisition by a drone, why would it take them >24 hours to allocate a missile to an FOB?

[Stuart Galbraith]

If the Russians can have artillery impacting 10 minutes after target acquisition by a drone, why would it take them >24 hours to allocate a missile to an FOB?

Absolutely. Admittedly that was on the tactical level, and I do have to question how more flexible they are on a theatre or strategic level. But if nothing else, turning the Russian Army into brigades has clearly helped flexability, particulary when you note the number of support arms they have attached.

 

The open question in my mind is if they have sorted the Russian armys logistic problems out. That is one area where the 2008 reforms demonstrably failed.

[Chris Werb]

As I understand it those brigades in turn devolve into quasi-independent reinforced battalion sized battlegroups, similar to what we have. Logistics are indeed the key weakness they have. The MSRs into the Baltic republics would be long and there are a host of ways we could interdict and generally disrupt them. If you look at the road network all the way back to St. Petersburg, it's severely limited. There are very few rail routes and we are not going to let them resupply be air or sea unhindered. If you look at the 16 Pz2000s the Lithuanians have, each one of those can operate independently. In one minute it can put 12 L15 shells into a Russian FARP called in by a stay-behind or a trusted member of the public, and it's gone again. Rinse and repeat...If all of the Baltic Republics haven't put some serious thought into prepared demolitions and countermobility generally, some of their leadership need to be sent P45s.

[Stuart Galbraith]

As I understand it those brigades in turn devolve into quasi-independent reinforced battalion sized battlegroups, similar to what we have. Logistics are indeed the key weakness they have. The MSRs into the Baltic republics would be long and there are a host of ways we could interdict and generally disrupt them. If you look at the road network all the way back to St. Petersburg, it's severely limited. There are very few rail routes and we are not going to let them resupply be air or sea unhindered. If you look at the 16 Pz2000s the Lithuanians have, each one of those can operate independently. In one minute it can put 12 L15 shells into a Russian FARP called in by a stay-behind or a trusted member of the public, and it's gone again. Rinse and repeat...If all of the Baltic Republics haven't put some serious thought into prepared demolitions and countermobility generally, some of their leadership need to be sent P45s.

Indeed, and there is going to be a fantastically overworked battalion commander to make it all work. They could have 3 Motor Rifle companies, possibly as many as 2 tank companies, a battery of SPG's, and im not clear but might even have part of the brigades air defence regiment attached. Possibly just the Tunguskas, but from what I read some weeks ago Im idly wondering if they might be thinking of attaching buks down to battalion level. Thats before we get into NBC companies, and elements of the Brigades antitank battalion, engineers, etc etc etc...

 

Still, battalion battlegroups seemed to work well in Georgia, particularly for VDV so I cant very well knock it if it works for them. And it certainly means the battalion commander has all the tools on hand, and means problems communicating with brigade level are going to be minimised.

 

Yes, I dont disagree over the road network. Its still going to be largely rail based to make the system work. I note that when East Ukraine fell, the first think the Russians did was relay an important rail junction, to get supplies and equipment in easier. As the Balts are slowly relaying from Russian to European gauge, its a problem that is only ever going to get worse for them as time goes on.

 

It would be good to read more on modern Russian logistic systems. There is of course the FOI.se report seahawk pointed out, but ive not seen anything since 2013 on how they are improving the system.