Meanwhile In The Baltic Republics And Poland...

[BansheeOne]

On 12/28/2023 at 3:22 PM, BansheeOne said:

The main organizational challenge probably remains that only two formed battalions will be deployed, the third maneuver element - and probably part of the support units - to be created by restructuring eFP BG Lithuania with allied participation. If we look at the likely structure of a German heavy brigade post-2025, we have

- HQ and HQ company. Probably the easiest thing, since surplus senior ranks can always be found, either in Germany or the current main eFP LIT partners Netherlands and Norway ...

- Signals company. Likely no big deal either.

- Three maneuver battalions of either 44 Leopard or Puma each. NATO actually calls for four maneuver elements, but while previous plans had the three future heavy brigades meet that target, with the assignment of Panzergrenadierbataillon 122 and Panzerbataillon 203 to the new Panzerbrigade 42, that's no longer valid; the three emerging medium brigades only had three Boxer battalions to begin with, and I suspect that either Panzergrenadierbrigade 41, the Franco-German Brigade or even NL 13th Light Brigade will suck in another Panzergrenadier battalion from the heavy brigades just to achieve that. I further suspect that the fourth maneuver element will be claimed to be the

- Reconnaissance battalion, which has been stated to assume "area responsibility" like the old Panzeraufklärer units again; i. e., a return to economy-of-force missions as a contingency to armed reconnaissance. Hence the planned replacement of Fennek by a 6x6 vehicle with 25 mm gun, and the introduction of Boxer in a "heavy reconnaissance" variant, possibly mimicking the Fuchs-mounted "infantry" companies in the old divisional Panzeraufklärer battalions. The current formations include one recon company of 24 Fenneks; one light company with a scout platoon on Fuchs with light drones, and several military intelligence platoons; and one technical company with heavier UAVs, radar, and a maintenance platoon.

- Artillery battalion. Current artillery establishment of the Bundeswehr is a total of ten active and two reserve batteries with PzH 2000 and four with MLRS organized into four battalions of one each observation and rocket, and two to four tube artillery batteries; another battalion, notably designated "Panzerartillerie" instead of the generic "Artillerie" again, was established recently and assigned to Panzergrenadierbrigade 37. Plans are for six brigade and three divisional battalions, with the buildup likely by wheeled RCH 155 and PULS (though 14 out of a total stock of 108 PzH 2000 supplied to Ukraine and eight more cannibalized for spares will be replaced in kind; no such plans known for five out of 40 MLRS). The tracked legacy systems will probably be collected within the three heavy brigades, though the exact composition of battalions is unclear so far. They are however known to include anti-air capabilities, probably a firing unit of six Skyranger 30 on Boxer and/or the recently presented IRIS-T variant.

- Engineer battalion. Near as I can tell, current organization is two armored engineer companies with engineer and EOD squads mounted on Fuchs, Dachs AEV, Biber or Leguan ABLV and Keiler armored mine-clearing vehicles; and one heavy engineer company with unarmored construction, drilling and bridging equipment. This may be subject to revision.

- CSS battalion with three logistics companies of different types, including Büffel ARVs.

There's a FAQ on the Bundeswehr website mentioning only a reconnaissance and armored engineer company rather than bataillon each for the brigade. Unsure whether that means "German" or "overall", which would be traditionally sufficient. There is only talk of "5,000 Bundeswehr members" (including 200 civilian staff) without mention of allied contributions, so those could theoretically come on top, or actually be not considered at all. It's still rather vague, and we probably need to wait for more detailed information.

[urbanoid]

Spanish Leos crossing the Vistula.

 

[sunday]

Cool!

River looks a bit too high. Some flooding?

Of course, they would not be allowed to sport one of those in the arm...

[urbanoid]

Yes, in some parts of the Vistula there's a 'warning level', a few even have 'emergency level'

[Markus Becker]

1 hour ago, sunday said:

Cool!

River looks a bit too high. Some flooding?

Of course, they would not be allowed to sport one of those in the arm...

🤔 If that is what I think it is someone will put it on eventually. For 🧌 ing. 

[Markus Becker]

58 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Yes, in some parts of the Vistula there's a 'warning level', a few even have 'emergency level'

Did you have nothing but rain too the entire winter? 

 

[RETAC21]

1 hour ago, sunday said:

Cool!

River looks a bit too high. Some flooding?

Of course, they would not be allowed to sport one of those in the arm...

I dunno, mebbe the third time aorund we get to Moscow:

[urbanoid]

2 minutes ago, Markus Becker said:

Did you have nothing but rain too the entire winter? 

 

There was some snow too, but not much. It became quite a rarity in the last decade or so. But yeah, mostly rain.

[JWB]

Polish general Rajmund Andrzejczak: "If Russia attacks even an inch of Lithuanian territory, the response will come immediately. Not on the first day, but in the first minute. We will hit all strategic targets within a radius of 300 km. We will attack St. Petersburg directly".

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1844774323795697748

 

[Josh]

2 hours ago, JWB said:

Polish general Rajmund Andrzejczak: "If Russia attacks even an inch of Lithuanian territory, the response will come immediately. Not on the first day, but in the first minute. We will hit all strategic targets within a radius of 300 km. We will attack St. Petersburg directly".

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1844774323795697748

 

Woooooah…I do not doubt it, but way to say the quiet part out loud…

[R011]

29 minutes ago, Josh said:

Woooooah…I do not doubt it, but way to say the quiet part out loud…

"A vague disclaimer is nobody's friend".

[Stuart Galbraith]

We tried doing everything we could not to offend Russia, and they did everything they could to offend us. At long last somone is getting in their face and telling them exactly how it is.

If only someone had done that in 2022.

[Markus Becker]

On 10/11/2024 at 8:43 PM, Josh said:

Woooooah…I do not doubt it, but way to say the quiet part out loud…

Unless Poland has forces in Estonia or some MRBM the threat is going to be hard to follow up on because Poland is about 600km away from Russia. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

10 minutes ago, Markus Becker said:

Unless Poland has forces in Estonia or some MRBM the threat is going to be hard to follow up on because Poland is about 600km away from Russia. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AGM-158_JASSM

[old_goat]

6 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

We tried doing everything we could not to offend Russia, and they did everything they could to offend us. At long last somone is getting in their face and telling them exactly how it is.

If only someone had done that in 2022.

Sure. If you prefer turning Warsaw, London and most western capitals into radioactive wasteland, then do it... That polish general and anybody like him should be arrested and put in a madhouse...

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

Oh please, will you stop with the goddamn handwringing. If we are THAT worried about being attacked with nuclear weapons, presumably we would not have armed Ukraine. And as Poland has clearly pointed out, this is as a response TO aggression, no starting one.

 

[seahawk]

1 hour ago, old_goat said:

Sure. If you prefer turning Warsaw, London and most western capitals into radioactive wasteland, then do it... That polish general and anybody like him should be arrested and put in a madhouse...

 

Well said!

[urbanoid]

3 hours ago, old_goat said:

Sure. If you prefer turning Warsaw, London and most western capitals into radioactive wasteland, then do it... That polish general and anybody like him should be arrested and put in a madhouse...

 

And what exactly should be Polish (or Western in general) response to an invasion of a NATO member? Complaint to the UN? Strong condemnation? Surrender and a grand welcome for our new Russian overlords?

[Markus Becker]

3 hours ago, old_goat said:

Sure. If you prefer turning Warsaw, London and most western capitals into radioactive wasteland, then do it... That polish general and anybody like him should be arrested and put in a madhouse...

🥱 I presume you do know what Nato is, who's a member and what all of them are supposed to do when one - say Lithuania - is attacked.  

[old_goat]

1 hour ago, urbanoid said:

And what exactly should be Polish (or Western in general) response to an invasion of a NATO member? Complaint to the UN? Strong condemnation? Surrender and a grand welcome for our new Russian overlords?

1: Russia has zero intentions to attack any NATO member. ZERO. 

2: Even if they attack (in a parallel universe...), the response should be trying to destroy the attacker forces first. Not starting a nuclear holocaust. 

[urbanoid]

1 minute ago, old_goat said:

1: Russia has zero intentions to attack any NATO member. ZERO. 

2: Even if they attack (in a parallel universe...), the response should be trying to destroy the attacker forces first. Not starting a nuclear holocaust. 

Yeah, just like they had no intention to attack Ukraine ever, we've been hearing it until 21 Feb 2022. 

Why would Russian military targets IN RUSSIA be exempt from strikes? I'm pretty sure that the invading Russians would be striking NATO military targets, so turnabout is fair play. 

If you're right and they indeed don't attack any NATO country ever, the whole point becomes moot and NATO generals can continue to declare how they'll theoretically tear Russia a new asshole over a theoretical invasion of a NATO country. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

24 minutes ago, old_goat said:

1: Russia has zero intentions to attack any NATO member. ZERO. 

2: Even if they attack (in a parallel universe...), the response should be trying to destroy the attacker forces first. Not starting a nuclear holocaust. 

1 Putin said it had zero intentions to attack Ukraine. I can find the exact quote for you if you wish. He later promised to rearrange the border of NATO. I submit, 2 good reasons to believe conflict could occur.

2 Poland doesn't have any nuclear weapons, so why would it start one, when Poland would be doing what Ukraine has been doing, which also has yet to disappear under a mushroom cloud.

The same old arguments for doing nothing.its starting to make me nostalgic for the cold war. But in truth, it was no different.

George Smiley : In my time, Peter Guillam, I've seen Whitehall skirts go up and come down again. I've listened to all the excellent argument for doing nothing, and reaped the consequent frightful harvest. I've watched people hop up and down and call it progress. I've seen good men go to the wall and the idiots get promoted with a dazzling regularity. All I'm left with is me and thirty-odd years of cold war without the option.

[old_goat]

1 hour ago, urbanoid said:

Yeah, just like they had no intention to attack Ukraine ever, we've been hearing it until 21 Feb 2022. 

Lets be honest, ukrainians (at least their puppet governments) believed that too, and provoked Russia as much as they could. The rest is history. 

1 hour ago, urbanoid said:

Why would Russian military targets IN RUSSIA be exempt from strikes? I'm pretty sure that the invading Russians would be striking NATO military targets, so turnabout is fair play. 

That general said they would attack St.Petersburg... dosent look like a military target to me...

1 hour ago, urbanoid said:

If you're right and they indeed don't attack any NATO country ever, the whole point becomes moot and NATO generals can continue to declare how they'll theoretically tear Russia a new asshole over a theoretical invasion of a NATO country. 

Yes, until we'll have an overzealous NATO general, who thinks he can get away with anything, and then he does something stupid... You can play with fire, but sooner or later you will burn yourself...

[urbanoid]

Behold, a 'dissident right', scared of its own shadow and unwilling to honor alliances.

[glenn239]

16 minutes ago, old_goat said:

That general said they would attack St.Petersburg... dosent look like a military target to me...

We used to have long discussions here about NATO's inalienable right to expand eastwards.  Now the narrative has switched to the impression that things are marching westwards.  NATO stronger than ever, and all that.