Meanwhile In The Baltic Republics And Poland...

[BansheeOne]

Exercise Iron Spear 2019 held by Canadian-led eFP BG Latvia for the third time saw 28 MBT crews from Spain, Italy, Poland, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Norway and the United States from all four Baltic battlegroups compete against each other. A French Leclerc crew narrowly beat a Norwegian Leopard 2A4 one to first place overall, despite the latter making excellent time on the range. Similarly, the US beat a German crew to third place by eight points as the latter had a machinegun malfunction nixing their high accuracy lead.

 

 

 

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

[BansheeOne]

Olé.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Yeah, felt they could have used a few more tanks. Someone was letting the side down there.

[carrierlost]

Tractable continue with airborne landings
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpEQihxBUWs

[Chris Werb]

Looks like a company's worth of tanks, which is interesting. Last I heard the British battle-group only had 4. I guess Gav Williamson was feeling particularly butch that day.

 

Squadron

[Stuart Galbraith]

Not if its the Royal Tank Regiment Chris.

 

Although it isnt, so Im splitting hairs again....

[Chris Werb]

Not if its the Royal Tank Regiment Chris.

 

Although it isnt, so Im splitting hairs again....

 

LOL

[carrierlost]

Here is how armour is transfered in Lithuania of between standard gauge and wide gauge.

 

https://twitter.com/29_RLC/status/1190191227490250752?s=09

[Stuart Galbraith]

Im disappointed. I thought there would be a wildly impractical Brunellian system to lift the carriages and put them on wide gauge bogies.

Edited November 3, 2019 by Stuart Galbraith

[Chris Werb]

Here is how armour is transfered in Lithuania of between standard gauge and wide gauge.

 

https://twitter.com/29_RLC/status/1190191227490250752?s=09

 

I'm really glad that we aren't relying on easily interdicted forms of transport to move reinforcements to the Baltic Republics :)

[Stuart Galbraith]

Chris, you ought to be aware, if these are easily interdicted, someone really ought to tell the Russians. They rely on railways for military transportation far more than NATO do.

[glenn239]

Most rail communications are civilian cargoes. Dunno about Europe, but for Canada rail lines are absolutely vital to the functioning of the economy.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Russians believe they are an artery that, based on WW2 experience, they will have to fight to keep open.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rk0B5viWDFM

 

[Chris Werb]

Chris, you ought to be aware, if these are easily interdicted, someone really ought to tell the Russians. They rely on railways for military transportation far more than NATO do.

 

The Russians don't have remotely as far to travel, and they get to choose when and where to kick off.

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

Chris, you ought to be aware, if these are easily interdicted, someone really ought to tell the Russians. They rely on railways for military transportation far more than NATO do.

 

The Russians don't have remotely as far to travel, and they get to choose when and where to kick off.

 

 

Any offensive into Europe would require reinforcement from forces from the Central and probably the Southern Military district. Ive wargamed it, thats a LONG way to travel. You are probably looking about weeks before they arrive from Central Military district.

 

Of course they could front load under the cover of an exercise, but if they are bringing them in from that far afield, that in itself is something of a lightbulb moment.

[Rick]

 

 

Chris, you ought to be aware, if these are easily interdicted, someone really ought to tell the Russians. They rely on railways for military transportation far more than NATO do.

 

The Russians don't have remotely as far to travel, and they get to choose when and where to kick off.

 

 

Any offensive into Europe would require reinforcement from forces from the Central and probably the Southern Military district. Ive wargamed it, thats a LONG way to travel. You are probably looking about weeks before they arrive from Central Military district.

 

Of course they could front load under the cover of an exercise, but if they are bringing them in from that far afield, that in itself is something of a lightbulb moment.

 

Stuart, mildly off topic, but didn't you also wargame the U.S.S. Nimitz vs the Japanese Pearl Harbor strike force?

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

 

 

Chris, you ought to be aware, if these are easily interdicted, someone really ought to tell the Russians. They rely on railways for military transportation far more than NATO do.

 

The Russians don't have remotely as far to travel, and they get to choose when and where to kick off.

 

 

Any offensive into Europe would require reinforcement from forces from the Central and probably the Southern Military district. Ive wargamed it, thats a LONG way to travel. You are probably looking about weeks before they arrive from Central Military district.

 

Of course they could front load under the cover of an exercise, but if they are bringing them in from that far afield, that in itself is something of a lightbulb moment.

 

Stuart, mildly off topic, but didn't you also wargame the U.S.S. Nimitz vs the Japanese Pearl Harbor strike force?

 

 

No, that wasnt me, but they did do it on CMANO.

 

http://www.warfaresims.com/?p=2306

 

I did build a scenario where the 6th Fleet faces off against the 5th Eskadra in 1973, resulting in a slow escalation to nuclear war, including the launching of SS11's from the Urals. But it got a bit big, and ive never actually got around to releasing it because you need something like a supercomputer to run it.

Edited November 8, 2019 by Stuart Galbraith

[Chris Werb]

 

 

Chris, you ought to be aware, if these are easily interdicted, someone really ought to tell the Russians. They rely on railways for military transportation far more than NATO do.

 

The Russians don't have remotely as far to travel, and they get to choose when and where to kick off.

 

 

Any offensive into Europe would require reinforcement from forces from the Central and probably the Southern Military district. Ive wargamed it, thats a LONG way to travel. You are probably looking about weeks before they arrive from Central Military district.

 

Of course they could front load under the cover of an exercise, but if they are bringing them in from that far afield, that in itself is something of a lightbulb moment.

 

 

I was talking about the Baltic Republics, which is where those tanks were going. If you are talking about an offensive into Europe, obviously all bets are off and whether 15 of 16 Challengers can get to Estonia or not is utterly irrelevant. You'll be sitting at home in the dark without leccy, internet, landline or mobile coverage (and quite possibly gas and water too) wondering when the next consignment of Sushi will arrive at your local Waitrose.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Well any offensive into the Baltic states would require significant reinforcement. Even 1st Guards Tank Army is in the Moscow area, which is some distance away. I have to question whether they have the roads or the tank transporters to move that many armoured vehicles without using railway lift.

 

The only formations they have in the Baltic area are 76 guards air assault division, mainly light BMD's and only 2 Regiments at the moment, and 2 other mech infantry brigades. There is a Naval infantry brigade from Kaliningrad, and maybe an arctic warfare Brigade up near the Norwegian Border. This is not nearly enough to make an impact on any of the baltic states without substantial reinforcement. Ok, so they have a further division building in Kaliningrad, but its only a division, and if it deploys who precisely defends Kaliningrad?

 

We cant fight there without substantial reinforcement, neither can they best i can tell.

 

Those 16 Challengers are already there. And whilst I admit getting any more there would be far from easy, lets not pretend the Russians reinforcing the area is going to be much easier with Nato special forces busting all the railway bridges and railway lines. They have railway troops for a reason, its their greatest vulnerability.

Edited November 10, 2019 by Stuart Galbraith

[Chris Werb]

Well any offensive into the Baltic states would require significant reinforcement. Even 1st Guards Tank Army is in the Moscow area, which is some distance away. I have to question whether they have the roads or the tank transporters to move that many armoured vehicles without using railway lift.

 

The only formations they have in the Baltic area are 76 guards air assault division, mainly light BMD's and only 2 Regiments at the moment, and 2 other mech infantry brigades. There is a Naval infantry brigade from Kaliningrad, and maybe an arctic warfare Brigade up near the Norwegian Border. This is not nearly enough to make an impact on any of the baltic states without substantial reinforcement. Ok, so they have a further division building in Kaliningrad, but its only a division, and if it deploys who precisely defends Kaliningrad?

 

We cant fight there without substantial reinforcement, neither can they best i can tell.

 

Those 16 Challengers are already there. And whilst I admit getting any more there would be far from easy, lets not pretend the Russians reinforcing the area is going to be much easier with Nato special forces busting all the railway bridges and railway lines. They have railway troops for a reason, its their greatest vulnerability.

 

Are we actually upping our commitment to Estonia to include a Company/Squadron size of Challengers or are they just there for an exercise.

 

The thing you're not factoring in is that the Russians are free to move stuff about unimpeded in their own country in peacetime. They can therefore move other units to jumping off positions with zero chance of interdiction. The most NATO would do is faff about arguing about whether to send reinforcements. The Russians are focusing on an exercising rapid mobilisation - when you look at NATO timescales for mobilisation (and I think you posted some yourself a while back) you'll see the situation for NATO over the Baltics is pretty hopeless and that's ignoring the fact that the enemy would have complete initiative, a highly effective, dense and survivable A2AD umbrella to operate under and long range precision munitions targeting every important fixed installation or system deep into NATO's heartland. Besides that, it looks pretty rosy for NATO

[Chris Werb]

 

I did build a scenario where the 6th Fleet faces off against the 5th Eskadra in 1973, resulting in a slow escalation to nuclear war, including the launching of SS11's from the Urals. But it got a bit big, and ive never actually got around to releasing it because you need something like a supercomputer to run it.

 

 

That's a hell of range for a wire guided MCLOS ATGW

[Roman Alymov]

lets not pretend the Russians reinforcing the area is going to be much easier with Nato special forces busting all the railway bridges and railway lines. They have railway troops for a reason, its their greatest vulnerability.

I think you are grossly overestimating potential of special forces here - especially taking into account amount of explosives needed to significantly damage big railroad bridge is counted in hundreds of kilograms, way above backpack cargo of small group on foot. But what is the need to carry all this heavy loads on foot in XXI century, when they could be delivered with tens of centimeters accuracy by cruise missile or drone?

Still, i do not see anybody providing plausible scenario for Russia to attack and capture Baltics, the land even local population is not exactly happy with. More pine forests and cold swamps? Thank you, we allready have our own stretching for 11 timezones

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

 

I did build a scenario where the 6th Fleet faces off against the 5th Eskadra in 1973, resulting in a slow escalation to nuclear war, including the launching of SS11's from the Urals. But it got a bit big, and ive never actually got around to releasing it because you need something like a supercomputer to run it.

 

 

That's a hell of range for a wire guided MCLOS ATGW

 

 

The MRV version was very interesting. I guess they got a longer wire.

http://www.themilitarystandard.com/missile/russia/ss-11.php

 

 

 

lets not pretend the Russians reinforcing the area is going to be much easier with Nato special forces busting all the railway bridges and railway lines. They have railway troops for a reason, its their greatest vulnerability.

I think you are grossly overestimating potential of special forces here - especially taking into account amount of explosives needed to significantly damage big railroad bridge is counted in hundreds of kilograms, way above backpack cargo of small group on foot. But what is the need to carry all this heavy loads on foot in XXI century, when they could be delivered with tens of centimeters accuracy by cruise missile or drone?

Still, i do not see anybody providing plausible scenario for Russia to attack and capture Baltics, the land even local population is not exactly happy with. More pine forests and cold swamps? Thank you, we allready have our own stretching for 11 timezones

 

 

You don't need to blow up bridges, you just put a contact detonator on the rail, and blow track up as a train rolls over it. (nothing to stop you doing it on a bridge, for added mayhem). You may not destroy the contents of the train, but there is certainly going to be a logjam whilst they straighten it all out. This is precisely how SOE and the French Resistance operated in WW2, which delayed the arrival of some divisions from the south of France until long past the decision point had been made.

 

There was an interesting example of some French resistance that infiltrated a marshalling yard, and messed up the oil in the axle boxes of some flatbed rolling stock that was due to carry 2SS Panzer Division to Normandy. They were no longer available so they had to drive all the way up from the south of france. They were attritted by SOE and special forces on the way which increased the delay. There was few casualties, it just slowed everything up.

 

Yes, cruise missiles would work. But why expend a cruise missile on a target where you know where it is day after day, and can be interdicted by a single guy with a backpack? A lot cheaper, simpler, and just as much potential to work in the 21st Century. Till someone figures out to protect railway lines 24/7 with drones anyway.

 

The politics doesn't interest me. The potential does. After Ukraine and Georgia there is potential, and to be honest that is all the worries me.

[Roman Alymov]

 

You don't need to blow up bridges, you just put a contact detonator on the rail, and blow track up as a train rolls over it. (nothing to stop you doing it on a bridge, for added mayhem). You may not destroy the contents of the train, but there is certainly going to be a logjam whilst they straighten it all out. This is precisely how SOE and the French Resistance operated in WW2, which delayed the arrival of some divisions from the south of France until long past the decision point had been made.

 

There was an interesting example of some French resistance that infiltrated a marshalling yard, and messed up the oil in the axle boxes of some flatbed rolling stock that was due to carry 2SS Panzer Division to Normandy. They were no longer available so they had to drive all the way up from the south of france. They were attritted by SOE and special forces on the way which increased the delay. There was few casualties, it just slowed everything up.

 

Belorussian partisans learned it is not working: Germans quickly invented how to fix blown rail literally within minutes with standard pre-prepared repair set. Yes it was slowing overall traffic rate, but required massive partisan movement with tens and hundreds of thousands of people (number of partisans who got Soviet awards was approximately 184K, with total number estimated about 1 million). Modern Western SOF are too limited in number for that.

 

"can be interdicted by a single guy with a backpack" - Again, "single guy with backpack" will end up in local police office cell. There are strong reasons for SOF to operate in strong groups and take time to carefully prepare their operations - otherwise they end up like B20 (real one, not book\movie version).

 

"The politics doesn't interest me. The potential does" - If you are so worried about potential - any person in so called "civilized world" is living in crosshair of ICBMs, usually more than one. What is making Baltics so special for you? Why not Gibraltar, for example? Or Ireland. or Scotland? Your own country is balancing at the edge of falling apart, but you are worried about frozen swamps on foggy shores of cold sea far waay from you....