Jump to content
tanknet.org

Turn Of Year 2015/16 At Cologne Train Station


Recommended Posts

 

 

For good measure, I might as well add where Germans emigrated: Switzerland 18,300, US 13,400, Austria 10,200, UK 8,900, Turkey 6,800, Spain 6,200, France 5,900, Poland 5,500, Australia 3,500, Netherlands 3,400, Greece 2,900, China 2,700, Italy and Russia 2,300 each, Canada 2,200, Belgium 2,100, Sweden 1,800, Thailand 1,700, UAE 1,500, Denmark, Brazil and New Zealand 1,300 each, Norway 1,200, Ireland and Iraq 1,000 each. There were also 6,600 "unkown destinations".

Turkey?

Turkish "guest workers" and/or their children or grandchildren even have migrated back to booming Turkey in recent years.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 458
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Posted Images

Also, it is (with some dents like currently) a major holiday destination for Germans, leading to tourism-related jobs in hotels, clubs, shops, restaurants etc. frequented by them, some run by Germans, private relationships spring up, people who liked to visit retire there because it's Warm and Cheap, and so on.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I've encountered Germans retiring to Turkey, Turkish emigrants & their descendants returned (one family from Australia to open a hotel which I stayed in), Germans moving to the Med to set up businesses servicing German & perhaps other tourists (e.g. a German dentist who fixed a broken filling for me), etc.

Edited by swerve
Link to post
Share on other sites

Likely ethnic Turks with German passports.

Who also would show up in the crime statistics as 'German'. Like I was asking.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, as noted one in eight German citizens has an immigration background. In the 80s, there were about 40,000 naturalizations per year; with the influx of ethnic Germans in the 90s, this rose to a peak of 314,000 in 1996, declining to 117,000 in 2005 after the citizenship law was changed from blood- to birth-based in 2000. Since then, this has been between 90,000 and 120,000 per year.

 

In 2001, there were 6.364 million criminal cases, or 774 per million inhabitants. There was a slight increase to 6.633 million cases (800 per million) in 2004, then a decline to 5.933 million (725 per million) in 2010, then an increase to 6.331 million (780 per million) last year again.

 

That's including immigration offenses; as mentioned German citizens almost never commit those, and numbers excluding them available from 2005 show 6.288 million cases (762 per million) that year, a decline to 5.859 million (716 per million) in 2010, then a slight up and down to 5.928 million (730 per million) last year. If anything, crime is lower today while the number of naturalized citizens has risen, but frankly the changes within that time are nearly insignificant.

 

Regarding criminal travellers, I found a statement that 20 percent of non-German suspects were also not German residents in 2012. The current crime report notes that in burglary cases, 7.9 percent of all suspects have non-German residency; given that 40.2 percent in those cases are non-German, that jives. 17.9 percent are also stated to have unknown or no residency, though I think it's mostly the latter, i.e. homeless folks out for a quick buck.

 

Something else to keep in mind is that foreign-looking suspects apparently are 50 percent more likely to be reported to police, which I guess is basic human nature but skews the numbers somewhat.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 1 month later...

This would almost be something for the information warfare thread, but the topic of this publication from the Gatestone Institute I came across two days ago is Germany's "Migrant Rape Crisis", which is apparently "spiraling out of control". According to this, "Germany is effectively under siege; public spaces are becoming increasingly perilous. Police have warned about a potential breakdown of public order this summer, when young male migrants are likely to see women lightly dressed." I had a ton of fun with it from a professional point of view, deconstructing the smoke and mirrors. Of course it got so long I included a tl;dr at the end. :D

 

It starts off with some generic bullet points about how well sex crimes are reported and prosecuted in Germany overall:

 

- Germany's migrant rape crisis has now spread to cities and towns in all 16 of Germany's federal states. Germany now finds itself in a vicious circle: most of the perpetrators are never found, and the few who are frequently receive lenient sentences. Only one in 10 rapes in Germany is reported and just 8% of rape trials result in convictions, according to Minister of Justice Heiko Maas.

 

- Up to 90% of the sex crimes committed in Germany in 2014 do not appear in the official statistics, according to André Schulz, the head of the Association of Criminal Police.

 

Disregarding the claim that there is a "crisis" which is "spreading", none of these problems with sex crimes are of course new; ask any feminist. These crimes have long been known to have a huge dark field because victims don't come forward out of shame and/or because they don't want to go through the ordeal of living through it and possibly being humiliated again in court, where "he said, she said" situations abound and conviction rates are, as noted, rather low. Part of the problem is that most sex crimes don't involve the stereotypical stranger jumping out from behind a bush, but friends, family, neighbors and colleagues; the bush-jumping stranger is stereotypical because these incidents tend to get reported, as victims are less hesitant (one of the linked sources, a 2013 article from the conservative daily "Die Welt" actually makes that point).

 

The implication of the piece is of course that rape-by-migrant is also, or even specifically underreported, backed up by some of the quotes by named or unnamed police sources which get cited once in a while; though again the abovementioned source from "Die Welt" charges that official statistics low-ball crime in general (but targets the Red-Green state government of North Rhine-Westphalia specifically) because the same suspect aggrieving several victims only gets reported as a single case. This, too, is not a new discussion however, as the article states itself.

 

Now as far as rape of Germans by migrants goes, those cases obviously come largely under the "stranger" category and would thus be rather well-reported by the victims themselves; in fact as I stated in the unrelated previous post, foreign-looking crime suspects are 50 percent more likely to get reported due to being both physically and psychologically conspicuous, reinforcing the effect. Then again, there is naturally rape among migrants, too, which we can assume to both happen much more frequently and be reported much less if involving friends, family, neighbors, etc. In fact the problem of sexual crimes within shelters etc. has been pointed out once in a while, but somehow the Gatestone piece isn't interested in this part.

 

With that as background, more of the obvious:

 

Attacks occurred at beaches, bike trails, cemeteries, discotheques, grocery stores, music festivals, parking garages, playgrounds, schools, shopping malls, taxis, public transportation (buses, trams, intercity express trains and subways), public parks, public squares, public swimming pools and public restrooms. Predators are lurking everywhere; safety nowhere.

 

Dozens of women and children have been assaulted by migrants at summer festivals and public swimming pools — staples of ordinary German life.

 

Yes, sexual assaults can occur anywhere. Even more spectacular, "anywhere" includes "staples of ordinary life". Most spectacularly, events like summer festivals have always been somewhat notorious for this, for obvious reasons: throngs of people, dancing, flirting, alcohol, etc. But onward:

 

Information about sexual assaults can usually be found only in local police reports. Rapes are sometimes treated as local interest stories and covered by local or regional newspapers. Only the most spectacular incidents of rape and sexual assault make it into the national press.

 

Well, yes; that's how most crime reports are being treated. Now if the piece complained that xenophobic incidents of migrants getting attacked by Germans do tend to get reported by national press even when they don't exceed in magnitude what is usually reported only at the local level, it would have a point; but it lets that very real unequal treatment slip by in its focus on rape-by-migrant. Rather, with the groundwork of the scarily normal laid, it now proceeds to build on it in bad faith.

 

Three rape cases did make it into Germany's national media in July:

  • On July 24, a 40-year-old migrant from Eritrea raped a 79-year-old woman in a cemetery in Ibbenbüren. The woman, who lives in a local nursing home, was visiting the grave of her late sister at 6AM when the attack occurred. The migrant, who has been living as a refugee in Germany since 2013, was arrested at the scene. He is unlikely to be deported, however, because Eritrea is considered a conflict zone.
  • On July 14, it emerged that one of the women raped by Muslim sex mobs in Cologne on New Year's Eve became pregnant. She failed to report the attack to police because she felt ashamed.
  • On July 3, a 24-year-old woman raped by three migrants in Mannheim in January admitted that she lied about the identity of the rapists. Selin Gören, a Turkish-German woman, initially said that her attackers were German nationals, when in fact they were Muslim migrants.

 

Here we have three cases which legitimately made national press for their public importance; and two of them are even legit. Now with the piece dated 9 August, you'd think the author would have been aware that by 28 July it had turned out that the alleged Cologne rape victim (which would have been the fourth in addition to three established cases, and the first to actually have suffered a completed rather than attempted rape or having put fingers inside her) hadn't even been in Cologne on New Year's Eve, and had a prior history of fake rape reports, not necessarily involving migrants. The same is true for a case listed in the appendix of the piece, in which a 21-year-old claimed to have been raped by two Black Africans on the way home from a village festival on 17 July; by the next day it had turned out that she was covering herself for unspecified reasons. Which aren't the first migrant rape hoaxes either; a German website that has dedicated itself to debunking fake reports about migrant crime lists 62 (and five in Austria) since last year.

 

It is among the ironies of the topic that the folks who are most outraged about sexual assaults by migrants tend to be the same who otherwise like to blast women complaining about such attacks as man-hating feminist bitches who can't take a bit of good fun and are out to criminalize men (of course the reverse applies, too). Locally, those types like to cherry-pick studies about false rape accusations for statements of individual police officers that "in my experience, half of these accusations are made up". Now the problem definitely exists, and there have been several high-profile/celebrity cases of false rape charges not involving migrants (or at least that not being the point) in Germany in recent years, one just last month; but the same studies (one from Bavaria, one from Schleswig-Holstein) seem to indicate that about eight percent of rape accusations end in charges of wrongful accusation for the alleged victim (incidentally, that's the same number as successful rape convictions). Motives are the usual: revenge, extortion, thinking better of consensual sex, covering for other flings, or want for attention crossing into mental.

 

I would guess that the fake rate among accusations of migrant rape is higher than eight percent, both for political purposes and because it grants more attention for the mental cases; as related sometime earlier, back when the popular threat du jour was neo-Nazis, claims of attacks from such (not necessarily sexual) abounded among the attention-seeking types and were happily swallowed by those with an appropriate interest (it has not totally gone out of fashion either; only recently a claim to that effect by a youth functionary of the Left Party in Wismar, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern turned out to be fake). There are the Tawana Brawley types, too, like in the case of the 13-year-old girl from Berlin who claimed to have been raped by migrants earlier this year to cover for avoiding school. It’s not a good basis, but from comparing this piece with the anti-hoax website I would guess that at least one in five cases of rape-by-immigrant is a hoax.

 

There are other bits in the piece which show a thorough disconnect from current German reality, like holding up Tübingen mayor Boris Palmer as an example of a "progressive" naïve do-gooder; which is damn funny considering that Palmer regularly gets blasted by his Green co-partisans for "overtaking the CSU on the right" over his hard-ass statements on immigration. The real meat though is in the appendix supposed to back up the claim that "during the month of July 2016, hundreds of German women and children were sexually assaulted by migrants" by listing "a few" cases. The latter qualification is obviously to imply that there are really many, many more which go unreported – because the rather extensive list would otherwise put the lie to the suggestion that German authorities and media suppress such incidents.

 

In fact authorities have been so jittery about that charge after the Cologne events that they sometimes have put out exaggerated reports of sexual assaults by migrants before thorough investigation themselves, like in a case that allegedly happened in a Kiel mall in February. The piece also helpfully points out that migrants will often not be called migrants in reports, but "of southern type", "dark-skinned", or "speaking broken German". It then happily turns that around to use any report mentioning any of those terms a proof for a migrant attack, notwithstanding that there may be Germans who are "of southern type" or "dark-skinned". The description might also refer to anyone with origins as diverse as from Spain to Romania, or Morocco to India; and of course any non-German, even if lily-white, would tend to speak "broken German".

 

In the end, most such descriptions probably do refer to migrants, even if not necessarily to asylum seekers, or even those who came here in the refugee crisis; it’s kinda hard to establish their status if police are only just looking for an unknown suspect based upon a physical description. There are some established cases of asylum seekers in the list, but also some as diverse as "a dark-skinned man speaking unaccented German" or a Turkish taxi driver; quite likely not recent arrivals. In several cases, no description is given in the sources at all to indicate a non-German; follow-up reports to the same incidents are listed as separate events. The piece also happily omits mention of a victim of an assault getting saved by a guy speaking "broken German", or a Dutch tourist being sexually harassed at a public pool by a "Middle-European type"; just like instances of other sexual assaults by non-migrants in the same police reports.

 

Overall though it shows commendable effort in compiling reports, almost all even from reputable sources, thereby drowning the recipient in cases – even if most are actually not rapes and thus not exactly supporting the claim of a "rape crisis". To honor this hard work, I actually read every single source given and compiled my own table of which cases are completed or attempted rape, groping, verbal harassment, or exhibitionism, and how many established migrants of various nationalities, "southerners" or others committed them.

 

Completed Rape: Total of twelve suspects in nine cases, ten with established identities.

- 1 x Afghan

- 1 x Eritrean living as a recognized refugee in Germany since 2013.

- 1 x Iraqi

- 1 x Nigerian

- 4 x Pakistanis having sex with incapacitated 17-year-old after joint boozing.

- 1 x Tunisian also suspected of one count of exhibitionism in July, as well as two earlier sexual assaults.

- 1 x North African with multiple registered identities nation-wide, also charged with attempted homicide and robbery; follow-up report listed as separate event.

- 1 x Black African

- 1 x dark-skinned talking in unknown language and some English.

 

Attempted Rape: Total of 14 individual suspects and two groups in 16 cases, most identities not established since attackers ran off when prevented from completing.

- 1 x Afghan

- 1 x Pakistani

- 1 x Syrian/Lebanese

- 1 x group of “up to six apparent Syrians” suspected of spiking drinks of two women at a discotheque.

- 1 x Black African

- 3 x dark-skinned

- 5 x southern type; source for one no longer available, cannot be confirmed. One speaking unaccented German, one driving a Mercedes van with foreign plates, probably not refugees.

- 1 x refugee/asylum seeker

- 1 x migration background speaking broken German; victim rescued by man speaking accented German.

- 1 x group of foreigners

 

Groping: Total of 121 individual suspects and three groups.

- 18 x Afghan; many described as intoxicated, many cases at swimming pools. In one case, a follow-up report of the same incident is listed as a separate case.

- 1 x Albanian

- 1 x Albanian-speaking group

- 2 x Algerian; deportation of one was due after previous incidents anyway, initiated immediately afterwards.

- 1 x Eritrean

- 3 x Iranian; one victim was Chinese.

- 6 x Iraqi

- 1 x Libyan

- 1 x Moroccan; also exhibitionism in five separate incidents with the same woman on the same night, intoxicated and cheered on by company. Came here in 2014 as unaccompanied minor, asylum request rejected but not yet deported due to the usual trouble with papers etc.; victim also filed no charges.

- 4 x Pakistani; source for one no longer available, cannot be confirmed.

- 1 x Sudanese

- 3 x Syrian

- Four boys aged 11-13 from Syrian and Iraqi families groping 12-year-old girl, one also exhibiting himself and demanding sexual acts.

- 1 x Turkish taxi driver

- 6 x Black African

- 1 x group of Black Africans

- 8 x North African

- 3 x Arab-looking

- 1 x group of Arab-looking men

- 20 x dark-skinned; two also speaking broken, one no German, one German without further qualification.

- 7 x southern type; one described as possibly Turkish, two also speaking broken German, one talking unintelligibly, possibly English.

- 1 x group of southern types

- 2 x Indian type

- 1 x southern-to-African

- 1 x Southeast-European type

- 2 x broken German

- 5 x foreign-speaking

- 4 x foreigner; one "possibly", one approaching a woman with “mangiare”.

- 2 x migration background; one a German citizen.

- 2 x migrant

- 8 x refugee/asylum seeker; one "possibly".

- 2 x no description

 

Harassment: Total of 31 individual suspects and one group.

- 2 x Afghan

- 2 x Eritrean

- 1 x Iranian

- 1 x Kazakh

- 4 x Moroccan

- 1 x Tunisian

- 1 x Black African

- 8 x North African

- 5 x southern type

- 5 x refugee/asylum seeker

- 1 x possible foreigner; same report listed twice.

- 1 x group of refugees hanging out in public square for free townhall wifi in several incidents

 

Exhibitionism: Total of 21 suspects.

- 1 x Afghan

- 1 x Iraqi

- 1 x Syrian

- 6 x dark-skinned

- 9 x southern type; one speaking unaccented German, one in several incidents, sources for two incidents involving one and five respectively no longer available, cannot be confirmed.

- 1 x Southeast-European type

- 1 x migration background

- 1 x no fixed abode in Germany

 

Attempted robbery with no apparent sexual motive: 2 x dark-skinned foreigner

 

For comparison purposes, in 2014 there were 7,345 registered cases of rape (including 1,153 attempts) involving 6,162 suspects in Germany, out of 46,982 cases of sex crime involving 33,101 suspects total. Of the rape suspects, 31 percent or 1,911 were non-German, including 476 Turks, 94 Italians, 88 Romanians, 75 Poles and Afghans each, 73 Serbs, 67 Iraqis and 54 Kosovars. Non-Germans show up less as suspects for sex crime overall (2,852 or 8.6 percent), but proportions of nationalities are essentially the same.

 

Comparison is of course difficult because those cases include attacks on their own, which the Gatestone piece is not interested in; then again as noted, victims tend to not report attacks by those close to them in particular. At any rate, the monthly average before anybody was talking of a refugee, much less a rape crisis, was thus about 610, including an estimated 190 (31 percent) by non-Germans. 25 cases by migrants is then a pretty labored definition of a "crisis", particularly as we can assume numbers in summer to be higher than average (as stated earlier, warm weather, people getting out, festivals, alcohol, opportunity to get raped by strangers which tends to get reported more).

 

For all its faults, the piece backs up the long-stated fact that some nationalities are overrepresented in crime statistics, while others are inconspicuous. North Africans and Balkan types as well as some Black Africans are typically mentioned among the former, and this is reflected in the list (reports about North Africans often indicate sex attacks are used to enable theft, a typical modus operandi of such gangs even before it was popularized in the Cologne events). What jumps out of course is the prevalence of Afghans (and immediate neighbors like Pakistanis and Iranians), particularly in swimming pool incidents, which likely indicates a bona fide cultural problem; also, frequent mention of intoxicated attackers, probably because people from many Muslim countries can’t handle alcohol. OTOH, Syrians among others remain underrepresented.

 

Tl;dr: Piece claims "Germany’s migrant rape crisis spirals out of control, country effectively under siege, public spaces are becoming increasingly perilous, breakdown of public order imminent". For evidence, cites three rape cases from this year reported by national press, of which one is made-up; and painstakingly lists eleven further cases of completed and sixteen of attempted rape by alleged migrants out of 200 incidents overall from local reports in July, at least one of which is also false and one is a follow-on report of an earlier incident. This against a "pre-crisis" monthly average of 600-plus rape cases nationwide, about 30 percent by non-Germans.

Edited by BansheeOne
Link to post
Share on other sites

Possibly a stupid question but in this part, shouldn't there be 9 cases or is one case not listed for some reason? I added numbers for ease of counting.

Completed Rape: Total of 14 suspects in ten cases, twelve with established identities.

1- 3 x Afghan

2- 1 x Eritrean living as a recognized refugee in Germany since 2013.

3- 1 x Iraqi

4- 1 x Nigerian

5- 4 x Pakistanis having sex with incapacitated 17-year-old after joint boozing.

6- 1 x Tunisian also suspected of one count of exhibitionism in July, as well as two earlier sexual assaults.

7- 1 x North African with multiple registered identities nation-wide, also charged with attempted homicide and robbery; follow-up report listed as separate event.

8- 1 x Black African

9- 1 x dark-skinned talking in unknown language and some English.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Two of the Afghans, aged 20 and 25, were in the same incident, molesting a 14-year-old boy in the changerooms of a public pool. The report actually didn't say "rape", just sexual acts against the victim's will; but also that one of the men was incriminated by DNA, so I counted this one as quasi-rape within my categories.

 

Of course reading it again I find the report of 6 July is about the men being formally charged with sexual molestation for the attack which already happened in April, so in effect you're right - the case doesn't belong in the list, reducing number of rapes to nine. Thanks, will correct.

Edited by BansheeOne
Link to post
Share on other sites

Ah just correct by accident, but no problem anyway. I ready it incorrectly, thinking each dash represented a case when in fact it was listing different ethnic groups making up the category, if I understand all aspects of the write up correctly now.

Link to post
Share on other sites

BTW this is an interesting case off the beaten track that shows the intricacies of the system: A court ruled today that the fourth kid of a Chinese couple that met and married in Germany must be given refugee status due to China's two-child policy. The parents had argued that if the family returned to China, they would be heavily fined and the kid would not be officially registered, excluding him from going to school or receiving any welfare among other societal discrimination.

 

The parents and their first two kids are on "tolerated" status (i.e., you really have to leave the country, but we chose not to deport you) while the third and fourth (the latter born last year) so far have had subsidiary protection (i.e., you're not being persecuted individually, but would still be endangered in your home country). The changed status will have no effect on the other family members though, since to get family protection the family would have had to exist at the time they came to Germany already.

Link to post
Share on other sites

File with the demographic information on this thread: 20 percent of kids born in Germany last year had a non-German mother (148,000 of 738,000), a rise from the rather stable 17-18 percent since 1996. Overall, number of births increased by 22,650 compared to 2014, of which 17,280 by mothers with no German citizenship. The total increase is still lower than the previous year where it was 33,000 over 2013, but then 22,000 of the additional kids were born to German mothers and only 11,000 to non-German ones.

 

However, the 2014 baby boom was probably a bit of an anomaly when lots of women decided they would now have the baby they had previously put off for career reasons etc.; in 2012 the rise was about 8,300, in 2013 about 3,500 for Germans, and about 2,400/5,000 respectively for non-Germans. In fact relative changes in live births vary very much from year to year, depending upon various factors like perceived economic development and stability etc.

 

The largest group among non-citizens last year were again Turkish mothers with 21,555 (2014: 21,908) births, followed by 10,831 (9,958) Poles, 8,154 (5,551) Romanians, 7,146 (6,080) Kosovarians, 5,982 (5,568) Italians, 5,616 (4,957) Serbs, 5,458 (5,553) Russians, 4,829 (2,281) Syrians, 4,202 (3,135) Bulgarians and 3,245 (2,957) Greeks.

 

Unsurprisingly, the biggest relative rise was among Syrian mothers with 112 percent, but Romanians (+ 47), Bulgarians (+ 34), Kosovarians (+ 12), Serbs (+ 11), Greeks (+ 10), Poles (+ 9) and Italians (+ 7) also saw sometimes considerable increases (though it has to be kept in mind that high relative increases are easier in smaller communities). Turks (- 1.6) and Russians (- 1.7) both decreased somewhat.

 

https://www.destatis.de/DE/PresseService/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2016/09/PD16_332_126.html;jsessionid=34974518EC1FB434B872C0866A118F23.cae3

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 2 weeks later...

While I'm throwing about demographic data, the Federal Bureau of Statistics published its preliminary migration report for 2015 today. Unsurprisingly, total immigration reached a record high of 2,137,000 last year, but emigration was also very high at 998,000. Population in Germany thus grew by about 1,139,000 in balance.

 

Not directly related, but the long-announced revised numbers of refugees registered in the EASY system last year have now been announced. As some will recall, the unrevised number from January was just below 1.1 million, but included various multiple registries and people who had moved on to other countries; it was suggested then that after sorting those out, the result would be about a million. In fact it is 890,000. For the current year, 210,000 have been registered as of 21 September; the expected total until year's end is 300,000.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 2 weeks later...

The Federal Bureau of Criminal Investigations presented their report on organized crime in Germany for 2015 today. There was a total of 566 investigations, very similar to 2014 with 571. By far the most (208) were linked to drugs, mostly cocaine and cannabis, followed by property offenses (84), economic offenses (67), tax and customs offenses (51) and human trafficking (46). Total damage was 424 million Euros, less than the 539 million in 2014, and far less than the high of 1,122 million in 2012; the decrease is due to individual cases with exorbitant sums in earlier years, mostly economic and tax/customs offenses. In 35 percent of cases perpetrators made criminal gains for a total of 230 million Euro, compared to 40 percent and 335 million in 2014. 65 million Euro's worth were impounded, also less than the 90 million in 2014, by far most of it linked to economic crime.

 

As before, ca. 80 percent of crimes are committed by international gangs. Of 8,675 suspects, 3,007 were German, followed by 990 Lithuanians :blink:, 841 Turks, 445 Poles, 413 Romanians, 255 Italians, 164 Russians, 150 Dutch, 140 Serbs, 132 Syrians and 110 Georgians. German-dominated groups are mostly found in economic crime where they make up 57 percent of the total, as well as drugs (42 percent). Turkish-dominated groups are also common, though slightly descending, in drugs (13 percent), and prevalent in human trafficking along with Syrians. Italians are traditional as ever, mostly doing drugs, counterfeit money, money laundering and tax fraud. Poles are mostly into property offenses like serial burglarizing and, of course, car theft. :D

 

Russian-Eurasian groups are also doing mostly property and drugs; of those groups, most are dominated by Georgians, followed by Germans, Lithuanians, Russians proper, Latvians, Ukrainians and Armenians. The high number of Lithuanians in recent years can apparently be chalked up mostly to a single investigation into telephone "shock calls" wherein perpetrators attempt to extort money by claiming that a relative of the victim is in dire need of help abroad, going on since 2012 and involving 816 Lithuanian suspects alone.

 

Cybercrime is up and coming with 22 investigations over twelve in 2014, five against German- and four each against Latvian- and Ukrainian-dominated groups. Violent crime like physical extortion is the domain of rocker groups which account for two thirds of a total of 28 investigations, compared to 23 in 2014, as well as prostitution. The German rocker scene is also experiencing increased infighting as Turks and others who were originally used as mercenaries for the dirtiest work are entering the organizations and trying to form their own chapters in conflict with the older German-dominated generation. Recently Aygün Mucuk, the leader of the Hell's Angels' Gießen chapter he had formed over objections from the established Frankfurt chapter, was found well-ventilated by 16 rounds from close range, following earlier shootings.

Edited by BansheeOne
Link to post
Share on other sites

Also in recent years gangs have formed like the Mongols MC. Calling themselves a motorcycle club. But not owning any bikes. Mostly turks and gypsies. And then there is the peculiar case of the "Osmanen Germania". Wearing the usual leather vests, having the usual prospect, member etc. structure, but calling themselves a BC (Boxclub) and not having bikes of course. The founders are from door bouncers and security services.

 

 

Oh and an indonesian MC makes inroads from the netherlands. They at least have actual motorbikes. Mostly found close to the netherlands in the rhine-ruhr area.

 

 

Going to be interesting times with these leather wearing thugs fighting over turf.

Link to post
Share on other sites

File with the demographic information on this thread: 20 percent of kids born in Germany last year had a non-German mother (148,000 of 738,000), a rise from the rather stable 17-18 percent since 1996. Overall, number of births increased by 22,650 compared to 2014, of which 17,280 by mothers with no German citizenship.

 

Addendum: Last year overall fertility rose to 1.5 live births per woman, up from 1.475 in 2014 and an absolute low of 1.243 in 1994. Among German women, numbers rose from 1.42 to 1.43, among non-German women from 1.86 to 1.95. Average age of mothers was 31.

 

https://www.destatis.de/DE/PresseService/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2016/10/PD16_373_126.html;jsessionid=C8ED22B47F15096E4C1EF6F33DA62B74.cae1

Edited by BansheeOne
Link to post
Share on other sites

This fits in here, so I'm doing the devolution of a government statement on numbers and status of foreigners in Germany per 30 June this year in reply to a parliamentary inquiry of the Left Party which I need for work here for future reference. The general problem here is that the below categories are not necessarily mutually exclusive, so can't be simply added up for a total; I'm trying to differentiate between legal status and classes of permits to stay in Germany.

 

 

Foreigners with no permit of residence: 3.439 million, of which 2.807 million EU/EEA citizens who don't need one; 2.597 million have been living here for six or more years, 632,000 are under age 18. Top twelve nationalities: 670,000 Poles, 477,000 Romanians, 280,000 Italians, 233,000 Bulgarians, 170,000 Greeks, 169,000 Hungarians, 152,000 Syrians, 102,000 Croats, 98,000 Spaniards, 86,000 Dutch, 76,000 Austrians, 75,000 French. The non-Europeans would be mostly cases who have not yet managed to file an application for asylum/refugee status due to the system still being clogged from last year, often unaccompanied minors, and merely are

 

persons with preliminary permits to stay: 461,000, of which only 1,000 have been living here for six or more years, and 131,000 are under age 18. Top twelve nationalities: 116,000 Syrians, 80,000 Afghans, 51,000 Iraqis, 18,000 Pakistanis, 17,000 Iranians, 14,000 Russians and undetermined each, 13,000 Eritreans and Albanians each, 12,000 Somalis, 11,000 Nigerians and 7,000 Kosovarians; there are also

persons dispensed from the requirement of having a permit to stay: 71,000, of which 61,000 have been living here for six or more years, and 16,000 are under age 18. Top twelve nationalities: 22,000 Italians, 13,000 Greeks, 5,000 French, 4,000 Portuguese, 3,000 Turks, Austrians, Dutch, Spaniards and Poles each, 2,000 Brits and Americans each, and about 1,000 Romanians. Don't ask me why EU citizens show up separately in this category, and what it's all about; it's not explained in the document. My first thought were diplomats and military personnel, but the numbers look weird.

 

 

 

Rejected asylum seekers: 549,000, of which 406,000 have been living here for six or more years, and 62,000 are under age 18. 47 percent still had an unlimited permit of residence by virtue of having stuck around long enough, 35 percent a limited permit, and 19 percent were tolerated or had another status. Top twelve nationalities: 78,000 Turks (a lot of those might be actually Kurds), 69,000 Kosovarians, 51,000 Serbs, 28,000 Afghans, 27,000 Vietnamese, 16,000 Macedonians, 15,000 Lebanese and Syrians each, 13,000 Bosnians, Albanians and Poles (huh?) each, 12,000 Iraqis.

 

Recognized refugees: 365,000, of which 45,000 have been living here for six or more years, and 87,000 are under age 18; 16 percent have an unlimited permit of residence, 68 a limited permit, and another 16 percent are tolerated or have another status. Top twelve nationalities: 222,000 Syrians, 56,000 Iraqis, 20,000 Eritreans, 13,000 Iranians, 11,000 Afghans, 9,000 undetermined, 5,000 Turks (see above), 4,000 Pakistanis and stateless each, 3,000 Russians, 2,000 Sri Lankans and "various Asians" each.

 

Jewish immigrants from the fUSSR: 215,000. No further differentiation.

 

Recognized asylum seekers: 40,000, of which 30,000 have been living here for six or more years, and 4,000 are under age 18; 78 percent have an unlimited permit of residence, 19 percent a limited permit, and two percent are tolerated or have another status. Top twelve nationalities: 11,000 Turks (see above), 6,000 Iranians and Syrians each, 2,000 Afghans and Iraqis each, 1,500 Sri Lankans, 1,000 Kosovarians, and less than a thousand Pakistanis, Poles (huh?), Ethiopians, Eritreans, and Vietnamese; there are also about 500 Czechs. I can only imagine that those Eastern Europeans are old cases from Communist times who have gotten unlimited permits even before their home countries joined the EU and never had their asylum status revoked.

 

Persons who had their asylum/refugee status revoked: 21,000, of which almost all have been living here for six or more years; 77 percent had unlimited residence permits, 18 limited permits, and five percent were tolerated or had another status. Top twelve nationalities: 7,000 Kosovarians, 4,000 Iraqis, 3,000 Turks, 1,000 Serbs and less than a thousand ex Serbian-Montenegrinans, Albanians, ex Yugoslavians, Sri Lankans, ex Serbs, Poles, Syrians and Iranians each.

 

 

 

​Persons who had applied for a permit to stay: 177,000, of which 60,000 had been living here for six years or more, and 23,000 were under age 18. Top twelve nationalities: 24,000 Syrians, 19,000 Turks, 9,000 Serbs, 8,000 Iraqis, 7,000 Kosovarians and Chinese each, 5,000 Russians, 4,000 Indians, Bosnians, Americans and Afghans each, and 3,000 Moroccans.

 

Tolerated persons (you really ougtha leave but have family, a helpful doctor certifying that you're too sick, conveniently lost your papers, etc.): 168,000, of which 29,000 have been living here for six or more years, and 56,000 were under age 18. Top twelve nationalities: 18,000 Serbs, 15,000 Afghans, 13,000 Kosovarians, 11,000 Syrians, 9,000 Albanians and Macedonians each, 8,000 Iraqis, 7,000 Russians, 6,000 undetermined, 4,000 Bosnians, Turks and Pakistanis each. Note that most of these would be included in the categories above, so don't count on top.

 

Persons with no basis to stay whatsoever who should leave: 53,000, of which 13,000 have been living here for six or more years, and 12,000 are under age 18. Top twelve nationalities: 7,000 Albanians, 5,000 Serbs, 4,000 Kosovarians, 3,000 Romanians, 2,000 Turks, Macedonians and Boisnians each, and about 1,500 Russians, Poles, Croats, Moroccans and Bulgarians each. Here the Eastern Europeans are probably criminal or welfare cases.

 

Persons with a permit to stay because they should have left but couldn't for typically at least 18 months through no fault of their own: 49,000, of which 34,000 have been here for six or more years and 16,000 are under age 18. Top twelve nationalities: 7,000 Serbs, 6,000 Kosovarians, 5,000 Turks, 3,000 undetermined, 2,000 Afghans and Bosnians each, about 1,500 Iraqis, Russians, Vietnamese, Lebanese, Macedonians and Armenians each. These might account for a lot of "another status" in the categories above.

 

Persons prohibited to deport for humanitarian reasons (you're not recognized as an individual asylum seeker or refugee, but your home country is still too dangerous to live there): 34,000, of which 16,000 have been living here for six or more years, and 7,000 are under age 18. Top twelve nationalities: 13,000 Afghans, 2,000 Syrians and Kosovarians each, about 1,000 Iraqis, Turks, Russians and Serbs each, and less than a thousand Somalis, Armenians, Iranians, Bosnians and Congolese each.

 

Persons with a permit to stay issued by state governments for humanitarian or reasons of international law or national interest: 33,000, of which 24,000 have been living here for six or more years and 9,000 are under age 18. Top twelve nationalities: 7,000 Syrians, 4,000 Kosovarians and Serbs each, 2,000 Turks, Bosnians and Lebanese each, about 1,000 Iraqis, Afghans and undetermined each, and less than a thousand Iranians, Russians and Pakistanis each.

 

Persons with a permit to stay for personal or humanitarian reasons (including crime victims and witnesses): 24,000, of which 5,000 under age 18. Top twelve nationalities: 3,000 Libyans, 2,000 Turks and Russians each, ca. 1,000 Saudis, Kosovarians, Serbs and Kuwaitis each, and less than a thousand Lebanese, UAE citizens, Iraqis, Ukrainians and Bosnians each.

 

Persons with a permit to stay issued by the federal government for reasons of national interest: 20,000, of which only 1,000 have been living here for six or more years, and 7,000 were under age 18. Top twelve nationalities: 15,000 Syrians, 2,000 Iraqis, and less than a thousand Ukrainians, Russians, undetermined, stateless, Somalis, Eritreans, Iranians, Belorussians, Sudanese and Usbeks each. I suspect these include the various state and federal programs to take in Syrians directly from refugee camps before last year's crisis.

 

Persons with subsidiary protection (variation of "not recognized, but too dangerous at home to deport"): 18,000, of which 4,000 have been living here for six or more years, and 5,000 are under age 18. Top twelve nationalities: 10,000 Syrians, 2,000 Afghans, 1,000 Somalis and less than a thousand Iraqis, undetermined, Eritreans, Iranians, stateless, Russians, Turks, Sudanese and Albanians each.

 

Non-EU citizens with a permit to stay due to legal residence in other EU countries: 17,000, of which almost none have been living here for six or more years. Top twelve nationalities: 4,000 Kosovarians, about 1,500 Macedonians, Albanians and Pakistanis each, 1,000 Bosnians, Indians and Vietnamese each, and less than a thousand Moroccans, Ghanans, Chinese, Nigerians and Turks each.

 

 

I've left out some categories which account only for a couple of hundred or thousands, because it's confusing enough as it is.

Edited by BansheeOne
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 4 weeks later...

a private organiser wanted to put stages, food

stands and such for the new year party on the square beteewn cathedral and train station in Cologne. The city stopped this for safety reasons, because of the expected high number of travellers for christmas and new year and the stands standing in the way.

 

http://www.n-tv.de/politik/Koeln-beerdigt-Silvesterparty-am-Dom-article18027116.html

 

 

meanwhile the city of cologne is recruiting volunteers among its employees to have enough personnel to organise this year's party. Police is planned to have at least 1500 officers deployed.

 

http://www.ksta.de/koeln/silvester-in-koeln-staedtische-mitarbeiter-sollen-sich-als-freiwillige-helfer-melden-25109642

Link to post
Share on other sites

 

File with the demographic information on this thread: 20 percent of kids born in Germany last year had a non-German mother (148,000 of 738,000), a rise from the rather stable 17-18 percent since 1996. Overall, number of births increased by 22,650 compared to 2014, of which 17,280 by mothers with no German citizenship.

 

Addendum: Last year overall fertility rose to 1.5 live births per woman, up from 1.475 in 2014 and an absolute low of 1.243 in 1994. Among German women, numbers rose from 1.42 to 1.43, among non-German women from 1.86 to 1.95. Average age of mothers was 31.

 

https://www.destatis.de/DE/PresseService/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2016/10/PD16_373_126.html;jsessionid=C8ED22B47F15096E4C1EF6F33DA62B74.cae1

 

Was there a birth spike around the first of October?

Link to post
Share on other sites

There was a total of 881 criminal complaints of sexual assaults involving more than 1,200 victims connected to New Year's Eve nation-wide, of which 497 with 648 victims in Cologne, 218 with 351 victims in Hamburg, and smaller numbers in Frankfurt, Stuttgart, Nuremberg and Bielefeld. Most of these would have been cases of "sexual insult" according to § 185 German Criminal Code:

 

Insult is punished by custodial sentence of up to one year or financial penalty and, if the insult is perpetrated by assault, by custodial sentence of up to two years or financial penalty.

 

To my surprise, and probably many others, there was no specific code for unwarranted fondling etc. at that time; as of 10 November this year, § 184i (sexual harrassment) has been enacted:

 

(1) Anybody physically touching and thereby harrassing another person in a sexually determined way is punished by custodial sentence of up to two years or by financial penalty, unless the act carries a heavier sentence according to other regulation.

 

(2) In especially severe cases, custodial sentence is from three months to five years. An especially severe case usually occurs if the act is perpetrated jointly by several persons.

 

(3) The act is only prosecuted upon complaint, unless the prosecuting authority deems official intervention necessary due to a particular public interest in prosecution.

 

The last line is standard language for (relative) Antragsdelikte in German code which are only prosecuted if the victim lodges a complaint. The reference to "heavier sentence according to other regulation" would be particularly regarding § 177 (sexual assault, sexual coercion, rape):

 

(1) Anybody performing sexual acts on another person against the obvious will of this person, or has them performed by this person, or designates this person for the performance or sufferance of sexual acts on or by a third person, is punished by custodial sentence from six months to five years.

 

(2) Likewise anybody is punished if performing sexual acts on another person or having them performed by this person, or designates this person for the performance or sufferance of sexual acts on or by a third person, if

 

1. the perpetrator takes advantage of the person being unable to form or express an opposing will,

2. the perpetrator takes advantage of the person being limited in forming or expressing the will due to a physical or mental condition, unless he has made sure of the acquiescence of the person,

3. the perpetrator takes advantage of the moment of surprise,

4. the perpetrator takes advantage of a situation in which the person is threatened by considerable malady if resisting, or

5. the perpetrator has coerced the person into performing or suffering the sexual act by the threat of a considerably malady.

(3) The attempt is punishable.

 

(4) A custodial sentence of not less than one year shall be handed if the inability to form or express a will is due to a sickness or impairment of the victim.

 

(5) A custodial sentence of not less than one year shall be handed if the perpetrator

 

1. uses force against the victim,

2. threatens the victim with a present danger for life and limb, or

3. takes advantage of a situation in which the victim is rendered defenseless to the action of the perpetrator.

(6) In especially severe cases a custodial sentence of not less than two years shall be handed. An especially severe case usually occurs if

 

1. the perpetrator executes intercourse with or has intercourse executed by the victim or performs similar sexual acts on or has them performed by the victim which are particularly degrading, especially if this is connected to penetration of the body (rape), or

2. the act is perpetrated jointly by several persons.

(7) A custodial sentence of not less than three years shall be handed if the perpetrator

 

1. carries a weapon or other dangerous tool with him,

2. carries another tool or means with him to prevent or overcome the resistance of another person by force or threat of force, or

3. brings the victim into danger of a severe damage to health.

(8) A custodial sentence of not less than five years shall be handed if the perpetrator

 

1. uses a weapon or other dangerous tool in the act, or

2. a) severely abuses or

B) brings into danger of death

the victim in the act.

(9) In less severe cases of paragraphs 1 and 2 a custodial sentence of three months to three years, in less severe cases of paragraphs 4 and 5 a custodial sentence of six months to ten years, in less severe cases of paragraphs 7 and 8 a custodial sentence of one year to ten years is to be handed.

 

I'm somehow missing the establishment of ten years maximum for paragraphs 4, 5, 7 and 8 before the final paragraph, but I'm not a lawyer, and it's probably stated in a more general part of the code; there is also § 178 (sexual assault, sexual coercion and rape resulting in death):

 

If the perpetrator causes the death of the victim at least recklessly by the sexual assault, the sexual coercion or rape (§ 177), the punishment shall be life or a custodial sentence of not less than ten years.

 

§ 177 was considerably broadened in definition at the same time as the establishment of the new § 184i (sexual harrassment) by introducing the language in paragraphs 2, 4 and 5, stating more clearly that the victim must not necessarily resist verbally or physically for the act to be punishable. This was done as part of the post-Cologne activism, but the problem did not really occur in the events of New Year's Eve; rather it had been a demand by feminists and other proponents to conform to the 2011 Istanbul Convention to prevent and fight violence against women by the European Council for some time (popularly, "no means no"). The events lend some push to it along with a highly-publicized "date rape" case involving a former "Germany's Next Top-Model" contestant - which ended a lot of people including two SPD ministers up with lots of egg on their face after criticizing a court decision that the alleged victim had wrongly accused the alleged rapists, but the subsequent trial involving lots of sex video established that the (female) judge may not have been so wrong.

 

As for actual rapes in Cologne, I had three completed and two dozen attempted cases in my mind, but upon checking find it were five of the former and 16 of the latter; I probably mixed that up because in the parliamentary investigation of the North Rhine-Westphalia state assembly, a representative of a sexual assault victims support organization testified that they had been in contact with two actual, in Whoopie, "rape-rape" victims who hadn't filed criminal complaints, one of which had only called them once though. The other eventually turned out to not even have been in Cologne on New Year's Eve, and having a prior history of fake rape accusations, which delivered a bit of a blow to that support organization. There was also a statement by Cologne prosecutors in January already that one case of a sexual offense had not occurred as claimed, so there's room for some confusion.

 

It has been estimated that about 2,000 perpetrators were involved in events nation-wide. As feared from the start, identifying, much less convicting them proved very hard due to acts being committed from crowds, lack of surveillance images and sparse descriptions by victims; only 120 suspects could be investigated (not including other offenses, mostly theft), and in Cologne only two have been convicted, one for sexual insult, the other for sexual coercion (plus another 20 for theft etc.).

Edited by BansheeOne
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...