Asia-Pacific Allies

[JWB]

Podcast on how Duterte is painting himself into a corner and why he must pull back:

 

https://player.fm/series/the-john-batchelor-show-96788/dtente-softens-anti-americanism-maybe-gordongchang-thedailybeast

[Nobu]

He does not appear to be holding anything back, however.

 

In his first speech in Japan:

 

"Even if we are poor, do not fuck with our dignity," he said to thunderous applause from his audience of Filipinos based in Japan.

He said he is much more comfortable with Japan and China than with Western nations. "Mas komportable ako dito sa Japan, sa China... In the other side of the world, hindi maganda ang treatment nila sa bayan ko," said the Philippine President. (I am more comfortable with Japan, China... In the other side of the world, their treatment of my country is not good.)

He also thanked Japan for being the Philippines' number one source of Official Development Assistance, saying there is some $6 billion in programmed assistance for airports and roads. "Japan is very attached to us. They are really so very kind. Wala akong maano sa (I cannot say anything bad about the) Japanese people," he said.

The man may yet have some redeeming qualities.

[Corinthian]

IIRC, Philippines is also #1 sex tourism destination for Japanese. I wonder wot he'd say about that after his "do not fuck with our dignity" thing.

 

I don't recall him saying all these things against Saudi Arabia. Now that is a country that is infamous for maltreating Filipino workers there, with many Saudis regarding Filipinos (among other nationalities) as untermensch.

[Nobu]

Makiko Segawa of TV Tokyo to Duterte: Which do you love more? Japan? Or China?

Duterte: I love the Philippines more.

Segawa: Which do you love more? Jollibee or McDonalds?

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Geyqak1lWo

 

Will Duterte call Japan friend?

 

"I would like to extend my gratitude to the Japanese people for hosting so many Filipinos and providing them gainful employment in the country of Japan."

 

Then, starting at the 31:55 mark, Duterte's response to EU human rights violation criticism: "If you have the evidence, file the case. Do not fuck with our dignity."

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lnpKP6oAtT8

Edited October 26, 2016 by Nobu

[JasonJ]

 

The Duterte roller coaster.

 

Duterte told Japanese media he had been expressing a personal opinion, not speaking for the government when he mentioned separating from Washington, the Nikkei newspaper said.

 

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN12O2P1

 

He does understand what being the head executive entails, doesn't he?!?

 

 

He's all over the place. Saying things that China wants to hear and saying things that Japan wants to hear. Just a minus on the US and the EU because they pointed at the judicial killings.

 

What this all shows is that the Philippines has ended up in a very important strategic position and everyone's hopes for influence in there is being swirled around by Duterte's rhetoric.

 

Ultimately though, it is the US and Japan that have more ground to lose and it is China that has more ground to gain and that is what seems to be happen. He probably won't go over to China to the extent that China has bigger influence than Japan and the US but kind of hover at a mid point. Or in short, be purple rather than ether blue or red. A hard limit on China growing influence by having the Philippines be blue would have been nice but I guess purple is satisfactory all things considered. With that said, the extent of my hopes is for the Philippines to buy a few Japanese military items for the Japanese defense industry later down the road. Anything like infantry gear to something grander like used P-3Cs. And not start buying Chinese or Russian equipment.

[JasonJ]

He does have a lot of kind words for Japan.

 

 

 

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and visiting Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte on Wednesday agreed to ensure maritime security amid rising concerns over the Philippines’ policy shift toward China.

Duterte and Abe held a summit meeting at the Prime Minister’s Office in Tokyo to tout the two nations’ “strategic partnership” and to further cement bilateral relations.

With regard to the recent decision by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, which upheld the Philippines’ argument over the South China Sea dispute, Abe told reporters the two leaders “have confirmed the importance of peaceful resolution of maritime disputes” based on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

“The South China Sea issue is a matter of interest for the entire local community that is directly linked to regional peace and stability,” Abe said.

Abe also said Japan welcomes Duterte’s recent visit to China to “improve” the bilateral relationship between Beijing and Manila.

Duterte repeated the words “the rule of law” several times, and said that Japan would be an important dialogue partner in ensuring maritime security in the region, including the South China Sea.

“The Philippines will continue to work closely with Japan on issues of common concern in the region, and uphold the shared values of democracy…. the rule of law and peaceful settlement of the disputes, including the South China Sea,” said Duterte.

At the meeting, Abe was to explain to Duterte the importance of the U.S. presence in the Asia-Pacific region for Japan, Japanese officials said before the talks.

According to bilateral diplomatic sources, Abe was expected to offer ¥5 billion in yen loans for agricultural development in the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, where Duterte long served as mayor of the city of Davao.

Earlier Wednesday, Duterte continued his war of words against the United States, saying he wants U.S. troops out of his country, possibly within two years.

“I want to be friends to China,” he reportedly told an audience of businesspeople in Tokyo.

“I do not need the arms, I do not want missiles established in my country, I do not need to have the airports to host the bombers,” he was quoted as saying by the Associated Press.

“I may have ruffled the feelings of some but that is how it is,” he said. “We will survive without the assistance of America, maybe a lesser quality of life, but as I said, we will survive.”

Meanwhile, in a separate speech later in the day, the Philippine president pledged not to “abandon Japan in our partnership and security matters.”

He also repeated his thanks to Japan “for its role it has played in our country’s industrialization.”

He said the Philippines-Japan strategic partnership has worked well in part because both countries are so committed to it, and stand to benefit from it.

“We will contribute to the growth of your industries and your economy as you have done,” he said.

Duterte, who arrived in Japan on Tuesday on a three-day visit, repeatedly expressed his thanks for Japan’s development assistance, which is in sharp contrast to his aggressive, often insulting rhetoric against the U.S.

Japanese media paid unusual attention to the visit of the outspoken president, with reporters and camera crews following the every step of the leader.

On Tuesday he called Americans “stupid” when he met resident Filipinos in Tokyo. During his visit to Beijing last week, Duterte announced his country’s “separation” from the U.S., both economically and militarily.

Duterte later toned down his remarks, explaining that he did not mean to say he would cut off ties with the U.S. But his provocations of the U.S. have Japanese officials perplexed, because the U.S. is Japan’s main diplomatic partner and its sole military ally.

“I think he is trying to diversify his diplomatic approach to hedge risks” by leaning toward China, a senior Foreign Ministry official said.

“But it would be never be desirable (for Japan) to see a rift between the U.S.” and the Philippines, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Still, in public, Japanese officials showed no signs of concern over the U.S.-Philippines relationship. On Tuesday, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, Abe’s right-hand man, told reporters that the Japanese government “is worried about nothing” as far as Duterte’s announcement of his country’s “separation” from the U.S. is concerned.

“For our country, the Philippines is a partner that shares strategic interests based on friendly, cooperative relations that have been built up for years,” Suga told a separate news conference on Wednesday.

“We will frankly continue exchanges of opinion with the Philippines for the two countries to contribute to peace and prosperity in the region,” he said.

Japan is now expected to extend further economic assistance to the Philippines, in particular by helping create master plans for the to develop the cities of Cebu and Davao.

 

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/10/26/national/politics-diplomacy/duterte-vows-not-abandon-japan-security-matters-philippine-china-ties-grow-cozy/#.WBCxyskXVgO

[JasonJ]

F-35B to deploy to Japan, Iwakuni early next year. Mayor of Iwakuni visits the US for firsthand look at the F-35B (video)

 

 

 

As a preamble to Marine Fighter Attack Squadron (VMFA) 121’s relocation to Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, Japan, the squadron welcomed Yoshihiko Fukuda, mayor of Iwakuni, Japan, aboard Marine Corps Air Station Yuma, Arizona, Oct. 24.

Col. Marcus Annibale, commanding officer of Marine Air Group (MAG) 13, and Lt. Col. J.T. Bardo, commanding officer of VMFA-121, greeted Fukuda upon his arrival to the air station.

“We’re hosting the mayor of Iwakuni and introducing him to the F-35B here in Yuma and prepping him for what he can expect when the squadron moves to Japan,” said Annibale.

During his visit, Fukuda established relationships with VMFA-121’s leadership, observed the F-35B Lightning II’s operational capabilities and expanded his knowledge of the aircraft.

“The government of Japan already briefed me about the deployment plan,” said Fukuda. “However, I would rather have real information based on firsthand experience rather than the information given over the tabletop … I wanted to confirm by being on site.”

While MCAS Iwakuni already houses aircraft, VMFA-121 will be the first F-35 squadron to be permanently based in Japan.

According to Bardo, Marines with VMFA-121 are both excited and honored to be part of this move.

Fukuda began his visit at MCAS Yuma’s flight line to observe the F-35 as it took off, performed maneuvers and conducted various landings – specifically the vertical landing, a capability of the inherent with the F-35s.

“The type of training we will be conducting will be very similar to that of the F-18 you already see in Iwakuni,” said Bardo. “The opportunity to be in Japan and as one of the first units to be able to train jointly with our partner services, there is a great honor, and we are looking forward to it.”

Fukuda also spoke with Maj. Gen. Mark Wise, 3rd Marine Aircraft Wing commanding general, and Lt. Gen. Jon Davis, deputy commandant for aviation, Headquarters Marine Corps.

“I would like to thank all the commanders, leaders and pilots that provided me the information about the F-35B’s safety, how the Marine Corps would respond to the community’s concerns, and also the benefits from having the most state-of-art, advanced technology and what is has to offer,” said Fukuda.

“The relationship with the mayor is very crucial,” said Bardo. “The town of Iwakuni is our host, we’re in their country. It’s very important for us to represent the Marine Corps, the squadron and our country.”

The squadron is scheduled to move to MCAS Iwakuni early 2017.

 

http://www.marines.mil/News/News-Display/Article/986883/japanese-official-visits-mcas-yuma-learns-firsthand-of-f-35bs-capabilities/

[JasonJ]

At Misawa airbase.

 

 

[JasonJ]

Just to get an article from a Philippine news page.

 

MANILA, Philippines -- The Philippines and Japan have agreed to work together for peace and stability in the region and emphasized the importance of "self-restraint and non-militarization" in the South China Sea.

 

According to a joint statement released by the Department of Foreign Affairs, President Rodrigo Duterte and Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe "acknowledged the importance of a rules-based approach to the peaceful settlement of maritime disputes without resorting to the threat or use of force, in accordance with the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the UN Charter and other relevant international conventions."

 

The Philippines is a claimant to part of the South China Sea within its Exclusive Economic Zone that it calls the West Philipine Sea.

 

An international arbitral tribunal ruled in the Philippines' favor in July, saying China's nine-dash-line claim does not have legal basis. China has rejected the ruling and the arbitration case that the Philippines filed in 2012.

 

The Philippines and China have agreed to hold bilateral talks on the dispute.

 

Duterte and Abe stressed "the need to ensure maritime safety and security which are vital elements for the peace, stability and continued prosperity of both countries and of the region."

 

Part of working together in what the two countries called a strategic partnership is the continued cooperation between the Philippine and Japanese coast guards as well as Japanese Official Development Assistance for two "large-scale patrol vessels".

 

Japan has already provided a patrol vessel, the Coast Guard's BRP Tubbataha, as the first of 10 ships that it is sending through ODA.

 

"President Duterte expressed his appreciation for Japans continuous support in this field," the joint statement said.

 

The two countries have also signed an agreement for the Philippines to lease TC-90 training aircraft from the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force.

 

Japan has also said that it plans "to provide high-speed boats and other equipment to enhance the Philippines anti-terrorism capabilities." Abe said that Japan intends to continue helping the Philippines, including training Philippine Navy pilots and helping upgrade the Navy.

 

"Maintaining open and stable seas is essential in the region. The two leaders shared the view that the South China Sea holds sea lanes vital for global economic activity and viability. In this regard, the two leaders stressed the importance of freedom of navigation and overflight, as well as anti-piracy efforts and cooperation," the joint statement also said.

http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2016/10/26/1637684/philippines-japan-call-self-restraint-south-china-sea

Edited October 26, 2016 by JasonJ

[Nobu]

IIRC, Philippines is also #1 sex tourism destination for Japanese. I wonder wot he'd say about that after his "do not fuck with our dignity" thing.

 

I have just learned of the existence of a Japanese such as Yuhei Takashima and feel shame.

Edited October 27, 2016 by Nobu

[JasonJ]

Duterte's Japan trip is looking quite positive, better than I could have hoped giving the past months. Of course time will tell how things really are.

 

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said Thursday he is open to the idea of holding exercises between the defense forces of his country and Japan.

“Joint exercises? Yes, of course . . . No problem,” Duterte told reporters while visiting the Japan Coast Guard’s 3rd regional headquarters in Yokohama on the third and last day of his state visit here.

The Philippine leader, who has ordered the cessation of joint patrols between Philippine and U.S. forces in the South China Sea and their regular exercises over concern voiced by Washington over his bloody anti-illegal drugs campaign, said the matter was discussed “sort of in general terms” during his visit.

Duterte, however, was noncommittal when asked about Manila forging a visiting forces agreement with Japan, a proposal raised during the time of his predecessor, Benigno Aquino. He said Japan had not brought up the matter during his visit.

Consistent with his earlier pronouncements about pulling American forces out of the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, Duterte told Japanese businessmen on Wednesday he wanted no foreign military presence in the Philippines “maybe in two years.”

A day later, he reiterated his intention to review the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement concluded with the United States in 2014, which allows the latter to rotate troops into the Philippines for extended stays and operate facilities on Philippine bases.

“Maybe, I will review the EDCA and ask them (American forces) one of these days to leave the country,” Duterte said.

Meanwhile, asked if Japanese patrol vessels that will be acquired by the Philippines could take part in patrols in the South China Sea, the Philippine leader said, “Yes, within our territorial waters.”

“If you want, we have no problem with that. I do not think China would stop us. Japan would just be going there and making a cruise. As a matter of fact, I also told them, they can go near my territorial waters, and park there if you want,” he said.

Duterte thanked Japan for providing vessels to the Philippines to help it patrol its waters. So far, Tokyo has committed to provide Manila’s coast guard with 10 vessels through a loan, which will be delivered through 2018, and another pair of large-scale patrol vessels.

Japan also expressed its intention to provide high-speed boats and other equipment that will help the Philippines boost its anti-terrorism capabilities.

“That’s what I need. I don’t (need) aircraft carriers that much,” he said of the rubber boats that he saw being used by the Japan Coast Guard during his Yokohama visit. “And also, (I need) frigates for the coast guard.”

During the visit, the two countries also formalized the terms for the lease of five Japanese TC-90 training aircraft to the Philippines.

Duterte said Prime Minister Shinzo Abe sought clarification from him about his strong pronouncements against the United States, and only listened.

“I told him of my sentiment, because it’s like we are being treated (by the United States) like dogs, where you throw the bread far away every time you have an issue with me.”

Abe, he said, did not give any response to his explanation. “To his eternal credit, (Prime) Minister Abe is a very courteous man.”

Aside from taking offense with U.S. criticism of his war on drugs, Duterte said the military exercises between Manila and Washington have not been as beneficial for the former as it should be.

Indicating his pivot toward China, he said such joint patrols risk provoking Beijing, which has been aggressive in asserting its claims over the South China Sea.

 

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/10/27/national/politics-diplomacy/duterte-says-open-idea-military-exercises-japan/#.WBI-GckXVgP

Edited October 27, 2016 by JasonJ

[BansheeOne]

God has told Duterte to shut the fuck up. Glad that's settled then.

 

Philippines’ Duterte: God told me to quit cussing

By Emily Rauhala October 28 at 5:41 AM

 

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has made a solemn promise: no more swearing.

 

Duterte, who famously cursed the pope and used a slang term that translates as “son of a whore" while denouncing President Obama, said he was flying back from Japan late Thursday, looking at a vast expanse of sky, listening to his colleagues snore, when he heard a voice say, “If you don’t stop epithets, I will bring this plane down now.”

 

“And I said, ‘Who is this?’ So, of course, ‘it’s God,’” he told Filipino journalists late Thursday.

 

“So, I promise God,” he continued, “Not [to] express slang, cuss words and everything. So you guys hear me right always because [a] promise to God is a promise to the Filipino people.”

 

The story surprised many. Though he was elected president of a predominantly Catholic country, Duterte is better known for his savage tongue and exhortations to violence than his Christian ways.

 

[...]

 

Critics of the campaign said the president's swearing pledge missed the point. “Philippine prez Duterte says god told him to stop swearing,” wrote Human Rights Watch's Andrew Stroehlein on Twitter. “Did god mention the death squads?”

 

Even Duterte seems to have doubts about his pact. Asked if he would really stop cursing out his allies and opponents alike, the president demurred.

 

'There's always a time for everything, a time to be foul-mouthed,” he said.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/10/28/philippines-duterte-god-told-me-to-quit-the-cussing/

[JasonJ]

No one messes with God. If Duterte breaks his promise and the Philippines gets hit with a major disaster, its on Duterte.

[Fritz]

Sooo... God has an issue with his cussing but no problem with aligning with godless commie China? Right.

[glenn239]

JasonJ Duterte's Japan trip is looking quite positive, better than I could have hoped giving the past months. Of course time will tell how things really are.

 

 

It’s not actually a bad thing for the US that Manilla tests the waters with the Chinese. The SCS is a ginormous pain in the ass for the US because they have to police the dispute with literally nothing to gain from it. If the Chinese and Filipinos were to get a deal done using the US as an excuse on each side, that’s one less hurdle for the US to getting the SCS done without a shooting war.

[JasonJ]

 

JasonJ Duterte's Japan trip is looking quite positive, better than I could have hoped giving the past months. Of course time will tell how things really are.

 

 

It’s not actually a bad thing for the US that Manilla tests the waters with the Chinese. The SCS is a ginormous pain in the ass for the US because they have to police the dispute with literally nothing to gain from it. If the Chinese and Filipinos were to get a deal done using the US as an excuse on each side, that’s one less hurdle for the US to getting the SCS done without a shooting war.

Well, it doesn't really eliminate the US interest in keeping the waters of the SCS as international waters. The deal between Manila and Beijing looks like it will put on hold China's advances into some waters and features within the Philippines EEZ such as Scarborough Shoal. Reportedly, Chinese vessels just left the shoal. But the three 3,000 meter long runway airbases on massive manmade islands still remain in the Spratly Islands (Fiery Cross Reef, Subi Reef, and Mischief Reef), in which case one of these (Mischief Reef) being within Philippine EEZ. So while China seems to have been put on hold regarding Scarborough Shoal, nothing has been said about Mischief Reef. So the US still has work to do to prevent China from increasing its influence in the Spratly Islands and keeping the water ways thoroughly free as international waters.

[JasonJ]

Sooo... God has an issue with his cussing but no problem with aligning with godless commie China? Right.

 

Still a little early to say if he is fully red. His Japan visit actually looks quite blue in the security sector, although light blue because of the pushing out of the US. But by standing on the same position as Japan in security, its pretty much still the same as the US as well. If things with China are kept cozy in just economics, the Philippines wouldn't be the first, Australia is very economically dependent on China but is still very much aligned with the US in regards to security.

[Nobu]

Duterte in the conversation for the Nobel Peace Prize may also have had an impact on his sudden humility before the Lord.

 

Agree that the impressions he made in Japan were favorable, as his rhetoric WRT the United States, while colorful, was also understandable from an economic side. If while under the protection and stewardship of Washington through the Cold War and into the Tech Age the percap GDP of Japan and Japanese was $2600 a year and the delivery of a refurbished 25-year-old C130 to the Japanese Air Force had just been celebrated on the ambassadorial level, this would be concerning in various ways.

 

Washington's pivot to China via the SCS has been and continues to be a win/win for Japan, as it has kept distracted China from Ishihara's game-changing purchase of the Senkakus in the ECS, provided cover for the continuing rise of the Japanese Navy, increased America's dependence on Japan, and helped to bring the Nippon Kaigi faction in Japan closer to the center, as illustrated by the appointment of a controversial person such as Inada to defense minister.

[Nobu]

Last month's 10-year, $38 billion U.S. military assistance deal to Israel includes funding that is expected to help Tel Aviv/Jerusalem defray the costs of purchasing and operating the F35.

 

Forget SuperHornets, The Philippines would be ecstatic for help in defraying the cost of operating refurbished F18C/D and electronic warfare F18 hand-me-downs.

 

Not sure what else the Philippines and the Filipinos need to do to receive that kind of assistance. They already have the entrenched Islamic insurgency. Perhaps they should convert to Judaism.

Edited October 29, 2016 by Nobu

[Josh]

My understanding was that the Chinese discussions had with Duterte basically ended with exactly what I said would happen: the Chinese proposed claiming it but allowing the PI to use it. Duterte balked. But that's the best deal he's going to get from the Chinese; they tied their own hands with the 9 dashed line in passports. Every Chinese national 'knows' that's the 'real' border and the CCP can never back down form the claim by formally acknowledging another.

[JasonJ]

With the Philippines giving security priority to Japan over the US, it presents a sort of opportunity for Japanese influence to expand. But Japan has the same problem it had always had while it was Imperial Japan; oil. Then combined with other things such as the aging and shrinking population, relative small size compared to the US, China, Russia, and the EU, there's just no way for Japan to reach that level. So while the US will be dependent on Japan to be the gateway for US forces into the western Pacific, Japan will need to stay close to the US because it'll never be powerful enough to conduct a large and global scale Japanese policy. If Japan tries to become a more independent power, it might find itself sandwiched between an unfriendly China and an unfriendly US. That won't be good for it.

[JasonJ]

A Globaltimes article on Duterte's trips to China and Japan.

 

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte visited Japan last week and met with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The two sides held extensive consultations over topics that range from economic cooperation to the South China Sea disputes.

 

The Abe administration, which pays particular attention to the anti-US president, had expressed hopes that Duterte could make Japan his first destination outside ASEAN region. Earlier this month, Duterte announced a separation from the US during his visit to Beijing, and Japan intended to mediate the broken US-Philippines ties. Tokyo wants to learn about Duterte's underlying intentions for the US and in the meantime persuade him to get back on the track of allying with the US.

 

Japan has some chances. Duterte's plan to boost the Philippine economy would be helped by Japan's financial aid, hence he kept being amicable to the country and was even called a pro-Japanese president by Japanese media.

 

Tokyo hopes it can take this opportunity to cement its ties with Manila and eventually improve Washington-Manila relations so as to strengthen their security cooperation. Since Abe resumed office, he put forward the conception of a Democratic Security Diamond in an attempt to form an alliance dominated by Japan, the US, India and Australia. The Philippines happens to lie in the center of the diamond, and it has strategic significance given its connection with the Japan-US alliance and ASEAN countries.

 

In this sense, the alliance would be weaker if the Philippines is absent and actually it has already been dealt a heavy blow by Duterte's defiance of the US. So Abe intended to convince him to coordinate with the Japan-US joint activities in the South China Sea.

 

But Duterte appears to be steadfast in his anti-US stance and even called for the US troops to exit the Philippines in two years. Philippine presidential spokesperson Ernesto Abella also said the agenda of Duterte's visit was not "political but economic," indicating the failed attempts by the Abe administration.

 

Duterte's U-turn in foreign policy results from his concentration on domestic issues. He has gained strong public support with his notable achievements in improving social security, but to maintain this rating he needs to boost the national economy. The Philippine economy was lackluster under the presidency of Benigno Aquino III, and nearly 30 percent of Filipinos still live in poverty. The pragmatic new president has to put more attention on economic development.

 

The Aquino administration dovetailed with US strategy in the South China Sea. But the coordination brought heavy losses to itself after China's backlash. This didn't serve the interests of the Philippines, of which Duterte is deeply aware.

 

Against this backdrop, it may facilitate Duterte diplomatically if the Philippines keeps an equal distance from China, Japan and the US. He can improve ties with China to obtain its economic assistance, and meanwhile play the China card with Japan and the US so that the two will be compelled to adjust their policies in a manner favorable to the Philippines. The plan seems to have worked, as proven by the massive aid Duterte got from China and Japan during his latest visits.

 

As the US presidential election is around the corner, Washington is too busy with internal affairs to spare any effort for the Sino-Philippine relations or the South China Sea issue. If Beijing and Manila can seize this opportunity to talk about and reach some consensus over the South China Sea issue, and set up a regional dialogue and cooperation mechanism, they will set a good example for dealing with disputes in the waters between claimants. This can show China's sincerity in its peaceful rise and strike the strongest blow to the China threat theory. It can also make it harder for Duterte to go back on his word as that would not be supported by people in the Philippines.

 

More importantly, Sino-Philippine cooperation will prove to be a significant attempt to deal with South China Sea disputes by bilateral means, which can curb interference in the South China Sea issue by countries outside the region such as the US and Japan. In fact, if China and the Philippines can address their conflicts through bilateral consultations, the US and Japan will become useless in the South China Sea.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1014783.shtml

[JasonJ]

Indian military band to participate in SDF march and is said to likely be watched over by Modi when he comes to visit.

 

 

 

An Indian military band will, for the first time, take part in the Japanese Self Defence Forces (SDF) marching festival 2016 in Tokyo later this week. This also coincides with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Japan during which expanding security cooperation is big on the agenda.

The marching festival of the SDF is an annual event being held since 1963 and draws an audience of over 50,000 people.

The Indian contingent of 32 Army bandsmen is accompanied by three officers and a drum Major. “Our team will be there from November 8 to 14. The invite was extended by Japan,” defence sources said.

The main festival is from November 11 to 13. “There are some dummy runs before that and the team has to get adjusted there,” the source said.

Mr. Modi is scheduled to visit Japan on a two-day visit from November 11-12 and sources said he was likely to witness the parade.

In January this year, a 123-member French Army contingent became the first foreign Army ever to have marched on Rajpath during the Republic Day parade saluting President Pranab Mukherjee and witnessed alongside by French President Francois Hollande who was the Chief Guest.

In May last year, a 75-member Indian Army contingent from the grenadier regiment, in another first, marched at the Victory Day parade in Russia which was attended by Mr. Mukherjee.

Beyond the symbolism of the marching Army band, India and Japan have resumed discussions for purchase of at least 12 ShinMaywa built US-2 amphibious planes worth over $1.4 bn.

While concluding the agreement on civil nuclear cooperation is on top of the agenda during the bilateral discussion between Mr. Modi and his Japanese counterpart Shinzo Abe, some announcement could be expected during the visit, sources said.

Differences over cost
The decision to commence “discussions” for the sale of US-2 planes was announced by the two leaders in 2014. But despite several rounds of negotiations at various levels there was no headway due to differences over the high cost, local manufacturing of components and transfer of technology.

Another reason, defence sources said was that with several other critical big ticket defence acquisitions in the pipeline, this “deal fell aside in the order of priority.”

The sources said the project was now back on track after some understanding on the contentious issues and Japan also agreeing to lower the price.

Japanese Embassy sources said they had clarified issues from their side. “We are waiting for the Indian Defence Ministry and the Defence Acquisition Council to take a decision,” the sources said.

The US-2 is capable of landing on water in rough weather conditions and can transport troops and supplies to the hundreds of islands around India during conflicts and disasters.

 

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/drummers-delight-indian-military-band-to-shower-love-in-tokyo/article9312276.ece

[JasonJ]

Trump wins. The strength of the US-Japan alliance may be tested like never before.

[JasonJ]

China's Globaltimes warning India to not make a joint statement with Japan that mentions the South China Sea when Modi visits Japan.

 

 

 

India may suffer “great losses” in bilateral trade if it joins Japan during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to ask China to abide by an international tribunal’s ruling quashing Beijing’s claims over disputed South China Sea (SCS), Chinese media warned on Tuesday.

“India should beware of the possibility that by becoming embroiled in the disputes, it might end up being a pawn of the U.S. and suffer great losses, especially in terms of business and trade, from China,” an oped article in state-run Global Times said.

Citing media reports that India is seeking support from Tokyo during Mr. Modi’s visit to Japan this week to issue a joint statement asking China to abide by July ruling of the tribunal on the SCS, it said, “India and China should put more efforts into resolving problems like the imbalance of their trade ties.”

Not to India’s benefit

“India won’t benefit much by balancing China through Japan. It will only lead to more mistrust between New Delhi and Beijing,” it said.

“India’s proposal to make new waves in the SCS first came to Singapore last month, but Singapore, a master of the rebalancing strategy, snubbed it. The rejection shows India lacks legitimacy and leadership in making new waves in the SCS,” the article said. It also pointed out that with the recent visit to China of Rodrigo Duterte, the new President of Philippines, the country that filed arbitration case against Beijing, the SCS dispute “passed pinnacle of tensions.”

‘Even Manila has mended fences’

“India should realise that the SCS disputes have passed the pinnacle of tensions after the announcement of the arbitration result, and some involved parties have begun to reflect on their old way of addressing the disputes creating conflicts without seeking productive bilateral negotiations. The Philippines, once a major aggressive claimant against China, has restored its relationship with China,” it said.

The article which comes in the backdrop of recent meeting at Hyderabad between National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and his Chinese counterpart Yang Jiechi said India wants to scale up its stand on the SCS in retaliation to Beijing blocking India’s bid to the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).

India not yet qualified for NSG

“India knows that it is not yet qualified for membership in the NSG, according to the organisation’s rules. China’s decision was simply a fulfillment of its international duties. It is preposterous for Indian media and government to scapegoat China as a troublemaker, and seek revenge by making more troubles,” it said.

“As a non-claimant to the SCS and an outsider that has no traditional influence on the region, India has been paying keen attention to any activity, because the country has adopted a ‘Look East’ foreign policy since Modi took office,” the article said.

“India, however, seems to have overestimated its leverage in the region. Although China’s major rivals in the dispute, such as the U.S. and Japan, have been trying to draw India into their camp, the country will be likely regarded as having a token role,” it said.

 

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-to-suffer-great-losses-if-it-joins-japan-on-scs/article9323188.ece