Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict

[JWB]

Putin is master strategist!

 

[JWB]

What is Baku saying?

 

[urbanoid]

On 8/11/2025 at 5:47 PM, Roman Alymov said:

So now in addition to having dead "Ukrainians" you would love to see dead Azeris? Nice.......

We'd rather see you lot stay in your shithole.

[glenn239]

7 hours ago, JWB said:

What is Baku saying?

 

Times of India says that Baku is threatening they might arm Ukraine if the Russians don't stop.  

[Roman Alymov]

On 8/19/2025 at 2:45 AM, glenn239 said:

Times of India says that Baku is threatening they might arm Ukraine if the Russians don't stop.  

So they mean mighty heavy industry and hightech of Azerbaijan would make the difference entire "collective West" have failed to deliver untill now?

    By the way yesterday Kremenchug Oil refinery (believed to be THE ONLY active oil refinery in Ukraine) was attacked, seemingly causing way more damage then few previous attacks https://t.me/ruslegionrne/7125

There are rumors that, after pro-Ukrainians have self-cut themselves off Russian oil that was pumped from RF for free (in vain hopes to ":maintain good relations and contract obligations with Western partners"), this plant was working on Azeri oil. For pro-Ukrainians it was comfortable deal anyway (since West is paying, the oil is effectively free for them), and AZ was getting nice profits out of that.

   In another news

"The Russian authorities have stripped the head of the Azerbaijani diaspora in Chelyabinsk of his citizenship and deported him. Businessman Arshad Khankishiev was accused of "promoting ethnic separatism and supporting supporters of Alexei Navalny." Khankishiev is a major businessman and restaurateur in the Urals. Earlier, the head of the Azerbaijani Diaspora in the Moscow region, Elshan Ibragimov, was also stripped of his citizenship.

Many wondered how Moscow would respond to the blatant rudeness pouring out of Baku since July. And here's the answer: blows to the wallet. There is a lot of money circulating in the Azerbaijani diaspora, the lion's share of which goes back to their homeland. The deprivation of citizenship and deportation of diaspora leaders in many ways breaks the usual business patterns.

Today, the Russian side did not allow Azerbaijani producer and TV presenter Emin Efendi to cross the border. He insulted Russia in his public post and openly expressed support for Ukraine. Do we need such guests? The answer is obvious." https://t.me/sashakots/55673

   Earlier news

"One of the key figures of Azerbaijani influence in Russia has collapsed. The head of the diaspora, Shahin Shikhlinsky, preferred to hand over his cards to save his son. Now he is giving evidence that is probably capable of hitting not only the ethnic mafia, but also structures associated with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.

In Russia, the name of the head of the Azerbaijani diaspora, Shahin Shikhlinsky, stood apart. His influence in the Urals could hardly be overestimated: control over the markets, strong ties with officials and security forces, and the ability to "solve problems." It is no coincidence that he was called "the main Azerbaijani of the Urals." Money, people, and decisions passed through this man.

But everything changed at the moment when the fate of the family outweighed loyalty to political patrons. After the arrest of Shikhlinsky's son, accused of hitting SWAT officer by car, Shikhlinsky seemed to decide that family links was more important than service in the interests of Baku.

A source from the investigation department of "First Russian" claims that the head of the diaspora went out to the operatives himself, leaving the building of the Azerbaijani embassy in Moscow, where he was hiding after fleeing Yekaterinburg.

I thought about it, weighed all the pros and cons, and agreed to testify.,
- this is how the interlocutor of Tsargrad describes the situation.

Azerbaijan's reaction
Baku tried to prevent this step, the insider confidently declares. There were even versions about Shikhlinsky being taken abroad with the help of diplomats or a private plane. But he chose to turn himself in quietly and began to testify in Yekaterinburg.

The Azerbaijani media immediately adopted a new tactic. Now they claim that Shikhlinsky has given up because he is crystal clear. But it is not clear why, in this case, it was necessary to flee from Yekaterinburg to Moscow.

What does he know and who can he drown?
The list of topics that can pop up thanks to the words of the "main Azerbaijani of the Urals" is impressive. According to the investigation, he is still being held as a witness in the case of a number of high-profile murders, starting in 2001. But this may be just the beginning. He may also be involved in two criminal cases: murder and the use of violence against a government official, the portal reported. 66.ru .

It is expected that Shikhlinsky can tell a lot of interesting things about the crimes of his countrymen. And it's not just about crime, but about connections with officials, patrons in law enforcement agencies, and the involvement of the diaspora in the abduction of Russian citizen Zahiraddin Ibragimov, who was brought to trial in Baku. These stories may lead the investigation to the people who provided the work of the Azerbaijani special services in Russia.

The most interesting thing is that he has information about officials who covered the work of the Diaspora.,
- Dmitry Chukreev, a member of the Public chamber of the Sverdlovsk region, noted in an interview with Tsargrad.

Baku lost
Shikhlinsky's decision to surrender is a blow to the image of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and the entire system of external pillars of the Azerbaijani government in Russia. For Baku, he was not just a leader of the diaspora, but a convenient channel of influence and control. Now this channel can become a source of information for the Russian security forces.

It is likely that Shikhlinsky was prompted to take this step by an attempt to obtain a commutation of punishment for his son, who was accused of using violence against a government official. But the price of this maneuver is a complete break with the previous patrons.

For Russia, this is a chance to uncover a whole layer of ethnic and political criminality, as well as to understand exactly how Baku's network of influence worked inside the country. If Shikhlinsky really starts talking, not only criminal authorities, but also politicians are likely to tremble. The detention of the head of the diaspora may turn into a powerful blow to Baku."  https://t.me/sashakots/55673

So what we see is effectively the breakdown of ethnic mafia system that founded by Aliev-senior back in the days when he was Soviet Azerbaijan KGB head (then Soviet Azerbaijan head). And it is no doubt Aliev-junior, wise politician himself, was in full knowlege of this consequences. So the real question is what he was promised/threaten by to go into this escalation. 

   

 

 

[glenn239]

6 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

So they mean mighty heavy industry and hightech of Azerbaijan would make the difference entire "collective West" have failed to deliver untill now?

I posted without comment, but I found it halfway between laughable and tragic that Baku is doing this, and responding to its isolation and weakness with stupid threats that even Zelensky might say, "hey guys, you might want to dial it down before you get hurt".   

Atilla has been mostly silent on this whole issue.  I've come to rely on him for all things in this region.  I don't quite understand what Baku is doing or thinking it is going to accomplish.

[Roman Alymov]

31 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

I posted without comment, but I found it halfway between laughable and tragic that Baku is doing this, and responding to its isolation and weakness with stupid threats that even Zelensky might say, "hey guys, you might want to dial it down before you get hurt".   

Atilla has been mostly silent on this whole issue.  I've come to rely on him for all things in this region.  I don't quite understand what Baku is doing or thinking it is going to accomplish.

Well, as you see above i have the same question - what could possibly made such a smart and careful politician Aliev-juniour is to move into such a potentially dangerous (and allready harmful) waters? I do not think for a minute the fate of few criminals (even ethnic Azeri) in far away land could caused this. The reasons have to be far more important.

[glenn239]

When a country starts acting in a way that is dangerously at odds with its own security and traditions, the first thing that comes to mind is corruption and bribes.

[Roman Alymov]

12 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

When a country starts acting in a way that is dangerously at odds with its own security and traditions, the first thing that comes to mind is corruption and bribes.

I can't imagine who inside AZ could bribe (or frighten) the man who is effectively local monarch (with more power then Arab kings, as there is no competing family members around) in second generation, son of local KGB top boss who have created this network of corruption spreading across entire former USSR way back in Soviet time. That is why this developments are puzzling for me.

[Mitleser]

Aliyev's previous gambits paid off and now he is more confident and tries another one.

Is it at odds with the security of his own country?

The RusFed is too busy to do much against them and the Islamic Republic is run by friendly half-Turks.

[Roman Alymov]

5 minutes ago, Mitleser said:

Aliyev's previous gambits paid off and now he is more confident and tries another one.

Is it at odds with the security of his own country?

The RusFed is too busy to do much against them and the Islamic Republic is run by friendly half-Turks.

Security? No, i do not think there are any prospects of RF bombing AZ, at least at this point. But Azeri "business" in RF is allready under pressure, and taking into account AZ is relatively small country (~10 mln, less then Moscow), loosing incomes generated by corrupt/criminal groups in RF is significant blow. For example, Ekaterinburg, once "controlled" by Shahin Shikhlinsky is the city of 1.5 mln (for comparison sake, Baku is 2.3mln). Still, criminal business associated with ethnic AZ "business people" is still in control of StPete ( sometimes called "Baku on Neva" for that), city of 5.6mln. 

[AttilaA]

On 8/20/2025 at 2:49 PM, glenn239 said:

I posted without comment, but I found it halfway between laughable and tragic that Baku is doing this, and responding to its isolation and weakness with stupid threats that even Zelensky might say, "hey guys, you might want to dial it down before you get hurt".   

Atilla has been mostly silent on this whole issue.  I've come to rely on him for all things in this region.  I don't quite understand what Baku is doing or thinking it is going to accomplish.

You guys refer to a article from some website, there has been no such statements from Azerbaijani government. 

As for what led to the deterioration of the relations, it was the shooting down of Azal plane. Shooting down a civilian plane and then trying to cover up + not admitting guilt is not a very friendly move.

But all in all, thinking that Azerbaijan and Russia is on the brink of war is a exaggeration:

https://en.apa.az/finance/meeting-of-intergovernmental-commission-on-azerbaijan-russia-economic-cooperation-to-be-held-today-475695

I don’t know what you mean with "isolation and weakness", Russia still needs Azerbaijan for north-south corridor. 

Azerbaijani president held a trilateral meeting with leaders of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan today, we are also looking at a "middle corridor" via Azerbaijan, from Central Asia to Turkey. 

 

Edited August 22, 2025 by AttilaA

[glenn239]

1 hour ago, AttilaA said:

You guys refer to a article from some website, there has been no such statements from Azerbaijani government. 

I was responding to reports that the Russians are cracking down and Azeri networks in Russia, that Baku assisted Israel in the 12 Day War, and that an Azeri linked refinery that had been left intact for years in Ukraine was recently attacked.  All seem like new developments to me.

Quote

As for what led to the deterioration of the relations, it was the shooting down of Azal plane. Shooting down a civilian plane and then trying to cover up + not admitting guilt is not a very friendly move

 

When countries are on a friendly footing when such incidents occur, they get dealt with and then everyone moves on.  The American EA-6 Cavalese cable car accident would be an example.  In this case, the jet was hit in heavy fog after aborting a number of landings during a Ukrainian drone attack.  Sufficient input from Murphy to be dealt with and left in the past, or used as a pretext.

Quote

But all in all, thinking that Azerbaijan and Russia is on the brink of war is a exaggeration:

I didn't say they were on the verge of war.  I said that I couldn't understand why Azerbaijan was even moving in the direction it appears to be going.

Quote

I don’t know what you mean with "isolation and weakness", Russia still needs Azerbaijan for north-south corridor. 

I think what you actually meant to say here is that Russia needs the corridor to Iran, and that Azerbaijan best not place itself between Russia and that requirement.

Quote

Azerbaijani president held a trilateral meeting with leaders of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan today, we are also looking at a "middle corridor" via Azerbaijan, from Central Asia to Turkey. 

So your explanation for why Baku is going anti-Russian is the airliner being shot down?  That doesn't seem convincing.  There has to be more going on.

Edited August 22, 2025 by glenn239

[Mighty_Zuk]

@glenn239 Reports are generated at an order of magnitude higher quantity than actual events occurring, and therefore they're mostly false. Not middle ground. 

You are consistently falling for false narratives because you refuse to verify them before posting.

[glenn239]

1 hour ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

@glenn239 Reports are generated at an order of magnitude higher quantity than actual events occurring, and therefore they're mostly false. Not middle ground. 

You are consistently falling for false narratives because you refuse to verify them before posting.

The oil attack is in reference to a report that the Russians had hit the SOCAR facility in Ukraine.  The Ukrainians said that Russia was targeting Azeri interests.   The cracking down on Azeris in Russia, this has been provided by Roman.

Edited August 22, 2025 by glenn239

[Roman Alymov]

4 hours ago, glenn239 said:

The cracking down on Azeris in Russia, this has been provided by Roman.

Not on Azeris, but on criminal gangs deliberately created and supported by Azeri political leadershipas long ago as Soviet time. Still. most of Azeris living in Russia are hard-working law-obedient people, including by the way some SVO heroes.

4 hours ago, glenn239 said:

The oil attack is in reference to a report that the Russians had hit the SOCAR facility in Ukraine.  The Ukrainians said that Russia was targeting Azeri interests.  

That is strange take. More correct way to describe it is "For at least three years of big war, Russia was avoiding strikes on AZ-related fuel infrastructure that was providing fuel for enemy army, despite of obvious huge cost in blood and treasure this extra care was resulting in for Russians". For some reason, Aliev-Jr. came to help and de-facto forced Rus leadership to stop turning the blind eye on this oil assets.....

[Roman Alymov]

More of the same, Azerbaijan is going Estonia way*:

"Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev suddenly saw the light and informed the world about the Soviet occupation: the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic, which arose in 1918, was taken away from the people by the Bolsheviks two years later. 

But here's the thing. 

The president's dad, then a 44-year-old major general who had just headed the KGB of the AZSSR, in an article for the internal magazine of the KGB of the USSR No. 4 (36) in 1967, tells how he ruled the occupation regime with his own hands. 

The bloody massacre, through the efforts of both Heydar Aliyev and his predecessors (whose activities he assesses very positively), caught and killed independence fighters. The best people: deserters from the Red Army, recruited by Turkish intelligence, representatives of various terrorist organizations, agents of the Iranian and American special services. 

He did everything possible to ensure that the occupation regime was strong and continued to stifle the freedom of the Azerbaijani people. As the last paragraph says, "to fulfill with honor the tasks assigned to the Chekists by the party and the government," to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the Great October with concrete deeds. 

Who actually took away the democratic republic from the Azerbaijanis. 

The occupying father, this KGB abomination, ruled Azerbaijan for 10 years as president and handed over power to his son from hand to hand. By all accounts, he should now go to the Alley of Honor in Baku and vent all his emotions on the grave of Heydar Aliyev. 

And all his victims should be posthumously rewarded."

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/177644 source with original article scans

*Kaja Kallas is also the daughter of top Soviet official, "born with a silver spoon in her mouth”

[glenn239]

Military Summary Channel states that the Russians hit Azeri buildings in Kyiv in the big strike yesterday, along with those of the EU, etc.  

[Josh]

On 8/22/2025 at 12:28 PM, glenn239 said:

The oil attack is in reference to a report that the Russians had hit the SOCAR facility in Ukraine.  The Ukrainians said that Russia was targeting Azeri interests.   The cracking down on Azeris in Russia, this has been provided by Roman.

The attack on the oil facility could just as easily be a response to the stepped up attacks on Russian refineries which have caused gasoline shortages.

[glenn239]

1 hour ago, Josh said:

The attack on the oil facility could just as easily be a response to the stepped up attacks on Russian refineries which have caused gasoline shortages.

Possibly, but yesterday the Russians hit Azeri buildings in Kyiv.  The message seems pretty clear. 

[JWB]

4 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Military Summary Channel states that the Russians hit Azeri buildings in Kyiv in the big strike yesterday, along with those of the EU, etc.  

 

[Josh]

28 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Possibly, but yesterday the Russians hit Azeri buildings in Kyiv.  The message seems pretty clear. 

Fair enough; that seems targeted.

[Josh]

The EU strike is a little puzzling. I mean sure, they are funding the war effort, but the timing seems weird. Were there some new sanctions applied or something? I know the Iranian SnapBack sanctions occurred but I cannot imagine Russia is overly concerned by that.

[glenn239]

American buildings were also hit, apparently.

[Roman Alymov]

5 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Military Summary Channel states that the Russians hit Azeri buildings in Kyiv in the big strike yesterday, along with those of the EU, etc.  

Taking into account how many buildings, shopping malls etc. across former USSR are owned by AZ businesses/crime sindicates, there is no need for some special intent. Probably you remember the terror attack in Crokus City mall in Moscow (by Tajik Islamists hired via pro-Ukr intelligence) - that was also "Azeri building" (owned by AZ owner, superrich "oligarch"). One of the reasons of so many people died there was that escape doors were locked (as owners were saving money on guards). No need to say owner was not prosecuted.