Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict

[AttilaA]

23 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Yes it is the territory of Azerbaijan state (as result of Lenin and Stalin era borders drawn across the lands of former Persiam, Ottoman and then Russian Empires, but Armenians weree there long before anybody except may be Persians appeared on the map). Still, Armenia giving up this land is effectively capitulation.

Karabakh was controlled by Azerbaijan between 1918-1920. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khosrov_bey_Sultanov

Here is an Armenian source and an Armenian author on this matter. 

https://dornsife.usc.edu/armenian/2018/12/10/qa-with-arsene-saparov-no-evidence-that-stalin-gave-karabakh-to-azerbaijan/

"I was looking for some evidence to understand the logic behind the decision of the Bolsheviks. And my conclusion is that the decision [on putting NKAO inside Azerbaijan] simply reflected the situation on the ground and that the Armenian Communists had no control over Karabakh."

Moreover, The Stalin decision that Armenians often refer to says it should be “left within Azerbaijan”, not “given to”. 

Your knowledge on history of Karabakh is understandably lacking. It wasn’t a simple case of Karabakh “changing hands between empires”. There was the Karabakh Khanate, which was not Persian in any shape or form. Not its rulers, not its army, nor the nomadic and semi-nomadic Turkic tribes that innhabited lowland Karabakh and also moved between lowland and highland Karabakh. The Khanate sometimes was vassal to Iranian Shah, but other times effectively independent (Zand dynasty of Iran had no control over Khanates in Caucasus. This only changed with Qajar invasion in 1795).

The founder of Karabakh Khanate conquered Armenian Melikdoms with his army, founding the city of Shusha (original name Panahabad), which was the capital and most populous settlement of Karabakh until Soviet times. Shusha had an Azerbaijani majority since its founding. You are completely disregarding these aspects in your version of history, the same that Armenians do, as if Azerbaijanis appeared out of thin air in Karabakh.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panah_Ali_Khan

The legal status of the territory is not a small detail, it’s the main point.

 

Edited August 8, 2025 by AttilaA

[Roman Alymov]

42 minutes ago, AttilaA said:

Karabakh was controlled by Azerbaijan between 1918-1920. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khosrov_bey_Sultanov

Here is an Armenian source and an Armenian author on this matter. 

https://dornsife.usc.edu/armenian/2018/12/10/qa-with-arsene-saparov-no-evidence-that-stalin-gave-karabakh-to-azerbaijan/

Arsene Saparov correctly states:

"I was looking for some evidence to understand the logic behind the decision of the Bolsheviks. And my conclusion is that the decision [on putting NKAO inside Azerbaijan] simply reflected the situation on the ground and that the Armenian Communists had no control over Karabakh."

Moreover, The Stalin decision that Armenians often refer to says it should be “left within Azerbaijan”, not “given to”. 

Your knowledge on history of Karabakh is understandably lacking. It wasn’t a simple case of Karabakh “changing hands between empires”. There was the Karabakh Khanate, which was not Persian in any shape or form. Not its rulers, not its army, nor the nomadic and semi-nomadic Turkic tribes that innhabited lowland Karabakh and also grazed flocks on highlands. The Khanate sometimes was vassal to Iranian Shah, but other times effectively independent (Zand dynasty of Iran had no control over Khanates in Caucasus. This only changed with Qajar invasion in last decade of 1700s).

See the treaty signed between Karabakh Khanate and Russian Empire in 1805:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Kurakchay

The founder of Karabakh Khanate conquered Armenian Melikdoms with his army, founding the city of Shusha (original name Panahabad), which was the capital and most populous settlement of Karabakh until Soviet times. Shusha had an Azerbaijani majority since its founding. You are completely disregarding these aspects in your version of history, the same that Armenians do, as if Azerbaijanis appeared out of thin air in Karabakh.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panah_Ali_Khan

The legal status of the territory is not a small detail, it’s the main point of it. Armenia never had realistically the means to keep occupying Azerbaijan’s internationally recognized territories, as the balance of power never favored Armenia in addition to legal status of the territory.

 

I'm sorry but i do not see in what way this events (relatively modern compared to Armenian history that is dating thousands of years back) is changing what io have said. Armenians (or protoarmenians) were there long before Turkish tribes have formed (and long before Slavic tribes have formed, if it makes you feel better). 

    By the way, ironically, Soviet school textbooks on History of USSR in my childhood were starting on Urarty (not exactly Armenia, but close to it in simplistic view).

   Like it or not, Armenians were once domitating entire region. Not just Karabakh, but significant part of what is now Turkey etc. But, for some reason, they have experienced historic collapse of massive magnitude that left only part of this land to be what we now know as "independent Armenia". And it is not clear if this collapse is over, or this territory will continue shrinking, to the extent Armenians would be one day "homeless" ethnic group like Jews were before reestablishment of Israel (european colony on ME) by migrants from (mostly) Eastern Europe.

"

[AttilaA]

4 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

I'm sorry but i do not see in what way this events (relatively modern compared to Armenian history that is dating thousands of years back) is changing what io have said. Armenians (or protoarmenians) were there long before Turkish tribes have formed (and long before Slavic tribes have formed, if it makes you feel better). 

    By the way, ironically, Soviet school textbooks on History of USSR in my childhood were starting on Urarty (not exactly Armenia, but close to it in simplistic view).

   Like it or not, Armenians were once domitating entire region. Not just Karabakh, but significant part of what is now Turkey etc. But, for some reason, they have experienced historic collapse of massive magnitude that left only part of this land to be what we now know as "independent Armenia". And it is not clear if this collapse is over, or this territory will continue shrinking, to the extent Armenians would be one day "homeless" ethnic group like Jews were before reestablishment of Israel (european colony on ME) by migrants from (mostly) Eastern Europe.

"

You wrote:

"it is the territory of Azerbaijan state (as result of Lenin and Stalin era borders drawn across the lands of former Persiam, Ottoman and then Russian Empires"

Meanwhile Russian expansion into Caucasus resulted in significant increase of Armenian population and presence in the region.

A significant part of Armenian population were displaced and relocated to Central Iran under Safavids. Russian Empire relocated them back to Caucasus, while also faciliating migration of Armenians from Ottoman Empire.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Surgun

Russian rule was extremely beneficial for Armenians.

As for who were where first, such things have no bearing on international law. You say it’s relatively recent history, so is Russia and what it became from a Golden Horde vassal to what it is today.

 

 

 

Edited August 7, 2025 by AttilaA

[AttilaA]

Azerbaijan and the U.S. to establish strategic working group

The Azerbaijan-U.S. strategic partnership will cover the following three areas:

Regional connectivity, including energy, trade, and transit;

Economic investment, including artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure;

Security cooperation, including defense sales and counterterrorism collaboration.

https://en.apa.az/foreign-policy/azerbaijan-and-the-us-to-establish-strategic-working-group-474539

Edited August 7, 2025 by AttilaA

[AttilaA]

 

[Roman Alymov]

9 hours ago, AttilaA said:

You wrote:

"it is the territory of Azerbaijan state (as result of Lenin and Stalin era borders drawn across the lands of former Persiam, Ottoman and then Russian Empires"

Meanwhile Russian expansion into Caucasus resulted in significant increase of Armenian population and presence in the region.

  Again, i see no contradiction to what i have said. Yes coming of Rus Empire (more or less "Orthodox Christian state" and huge united market) was blessing for ethnic Armenian population of Caucasus (who were Christians of old Orhodox style) compared to previous conditions of relatively isolated Muslim-dominated states they were living in. Especially visible it became in industrial era

"The first documentary information about the presence of Armenian buildings in the territory of the modern Azerbaijani capital dates back to the early Middle Ages. In 500 A.D., the Artsakh king Vachagan the Pious ordered the construction of an Armenian church there. This indicates, at least, the permanent presence of the Armenian population in the city. They will live in Baku after that, but until the city came under the control of the Russian Empire and its rapid economic development, it was a feudal center of local importance, a fortress with a population of no more than several thousand people. On the eve of the annexation to Russia, this center of the small Baku Khanate was inferior in size to the relatively nearby Shamakhi, Nukha and Shushi.

..................................

The rapid growth of Baku in the Russian (imperial) period of its history is eloquently reflected in the increase in the area of the city. In 1822 it was only 6 hectares, and in 1918 it was already 1300 hectares. The population of the city at the beginning of the 19th century was 3 thousand people, in 1903 — 156 thousand, and in 1910 — 215 thousand inhabitants. The number of houses in Baku increased 16-fold only from 1856 to the end of the 19th century. All this would have been impossible without the fundamental development of urban planning, in which Armenian architects, philanthropists, investors, building owners, engineers and ordinary construction workers played a key role at all levels. As the city grew and developed, so did its Armenian population, both quantitatively and as a percentage. If in 1851, according to the Caucasian Calendar, there were only 405 Armenians out of 7,431 in Baku, then already in the 1880s, 25,897 people out of 92600 Baku residents were Armenians, i.e. more than a quarter.  Muslims of different ethnic groups numbered not much more at that time — 35.5 thousand people (According to "Baku and its environs" (Appendix to the reference book "Old–Timers of the Caucasus") - No. 4, Tiflis, 1891. pp. 63-65, 68.). Armenians moved en masse to the rapidly developing city as an oil production center from Artsakh, Nukhi, Shamakhi, Gandzaka, Syunik, as well as from several regions of Georgia. It is not surprising that one of the main streets of Baku was named Armenian at that time. 

The majority of Armenians in Baku were oilfield workers, worked at manufacturing enterprises and construction sites, but many of them held positions in the city and provincial administrations, were employees of private offices, intellectuals, small wholesalers and retailers, as well as large entrepreneurs — owners of factories and oil fields. The Armenian printing house "Aror" operated in the city. In 1864, the Armenian Charitable Society, the Trusteeship of the Armenian Apostolic Church, the Armenian Cultural Union and other public organizations were founded, whose activities were by no means limited to Baku, covering the entire region. 

It is worth noting one curious fact — despite the fact that most of the real estate in Baku at the turn of the XIX-XX centuries belonged to the Caucasian Tatars (future Azerbaijanis), who made up the majority (not always overwhelming) of the city's population, the Armenians seriously outperformed them in terms of the value of the buildings owned. For example, in 1905, the Armenian community, which made up 18.8% of Baku residents, owned 43.3% of the city's real estate value, while the "Azerbaijani" community owned only 34%.  The Armenians were also in the lead in terms of the number of expensive buildings they owned in Baku. Thus, 22 Armenians, 14 representatives of other nationalities and 4 Tatars owned real estate worth more than 50,000 rubles in the same year." ( Бессмертный армянский дух в архитектуре Баку — Армянский музей Москвы и культуры наций )

    But this growth of ethnic Armenian population during Rus Empire (and USSR) had very little to do with fate of independent Armenia after USSR collapsed. Unfortunatelly, it turned out independent Armenia state is not viable.  So despite of strong ethnic Armenian presence around the globe (and especially in Russia) it seems like independent Armenia will sooner or later disapear from the map (or shrikn to miserable condition of Estonia but located on relatively cold landlocked mountains) and its former glory will only stay in history books.

9 hours ago, AttilaA said:

As for who were where first, such things have no bearing on anything. 

It depends of what you call "bearing". As for me, we observe final stages of what was once dominant nation of the region disapearing from political map (while as ethnic group, Armenians are doing quite well around the globe). The same way, native Americans were on US territory long before white men came, and Greeks were once population of most of what is now Turkey  -so what? Still, it is strange to deny they were present.

9 hours ago, AttilaA said:

You say it’s relatively recent history, so is Russia and what it became from a Golden Horde vassal to what it is today (what happened to Circassians in 19th century? Even more recent history).

"Russia" newer was "Golden Horde vassal" - but numerous Russian principalities were vassals to Mongol Horde, as by the time Mongols came there allready was no unified Rus state, as result of internal feudal feuds. Actually the very process of complex relations with Horde (both wars and cooperation) resulted in recreation/reestablishment of united Russian state that later spread across the continent from initial small forest "bastion".

     And why you focus on Circassians, not even more recent history of Chechens for example?

 

[JWB]

19 hours ago, AttilaA said:

As for who were where first, such things have no bearing on international law.

That is the entire point. NK was never recognized as part of Armenia by any nation on the planet.

[JWB]

Progress

 

[AttilaA]

.

Edited August 9, 2025 by AttilaA

[AttilaA]

23 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Still, Armenia giving up this land is effectively capitulation.

Somehow missed this part. What are you suggesting, a perpetual conflict? And what alternative for Armenia, other than “giving up" internationally recognized territory of Azerbaijan, which Azerbaijan was never going to concede? You realize that, in that case, Azerbaijan would be justified to attack any part of Armenia itself? While the previous wars were limited to Karabakh, we have completely different dynamics now, one of which is that there is no longer a “NKR” from which Armenia would derive plausible deniability ("its not Armenia, it’s Karabakh Armenians fighting Azerbaijan").

 

 

 

Edited August 8, 2025 by AttilaA

[Mighty_Zuk]

This sounds like a good resolution to the conflict.

Azerbaijan sets borders where it wants and lays no further claims. It and Armenia increase economical cooperation that brings co-dependence, and Armenia can relax and become someone's satellite state.

[Roman Alymov]

3 hours ago, AttilaA said:

Somehow missed this part. What are you suggesting, a perpetual conflict?

   I'm affraid you have not checked by message carefully - othervice you would have notice i am not "suggesting" anything, but just describing the situatioin of centuries-long collapse of Armenia-the-state from its former glory into oblivion or, at best case, misery.

3 hours ago, AttilaA said:

And what alternative for Armenia, other than “giving up" internationally recognized territory of Azerbaijan, which Azerbaijan was never going to concede? 

  Their alternative was not to convert their state (former Soviet Republic they got in relatively good shape) into failed state, and not to ruin their relations with RF (while of course this relations were not too usefull as it is isolated theater of war). Now they have no alternatives.

3 hours ago, AttilaA said:

 You realize that, in that case, Azerbaijan would be justified to attack any part of Armenia itself?

I strongly believe there are high chances of AZ (in cooperation with Turkey) finishing off AM one day, for example when Erdogan or other Turkkish leader would need small victorious war to boost internal political support. 

[Yama]

15 hours ago, AttilaA said:

Somehow missed this part. What are you suggesting, a perpetual conflict? And what alternative for Armenia, other than “giving up" internationally recognized territory of Azerbaijan, which Azerbaijan was never going to concede? 

Armenia didn't claim Nagorno-Karabakh as her own territory in the first place. The defeat is political, failure to support ally/proxy state and their own ethnic group.

Rare article where EU ignoring Azerbaijan developments is laid bare:

Europe accused of going soft on Azerbaijan to avoid buying Russian gas

I have never seen Azerbaijan critical article or statement on EU media other than French: no concern expressed of ethnic cleansing, no reaction to Aliyev's domestic policies, no condemnation of highly public atrocities incidents at the same time everything done Russian or Israeli forces was highly scrutinized.

 

 

[AttilaA]

6 hours ago, Yama said:

Armenia didn't claim Nagorno-Karabakh as her own territory in the first place. The defeat is political, failure to support ally/proxy state and their own ethnic group.

Rare article where EU ignoring Azerbaijan developments is laid bare:

Europe accused of going soft on Azerbaijan to avoid buying Russian gas

I have never seen Azerbaijan critical article or statement on EU media other than French: no concern expressed of ethnic cleansing, no reaction to Aliyev's domestic policies, no condemnation of highly public atrocities incidents at the same time everything done Russian or Israeli forces was highly scrutinized.

 

 

That’s why I asked what Armenia gave up. Armenia used the plausible deniability, but it was a war between Azerbaijan and Armenia. I mentioned, that there is no longer a “NKR" from which Armenia can derive plausible deniability from. Anything hypotethically after this point would be an obvious land grab attempt, and like said justify Azerbaijan taking the war into Armenian territory itself unlike before.

In 2020 war and 2023 1-day operation combined, Azerbaijan lost 100 civilians vs 95 from Armenian side. How do you compare this to Ukraine or Gaza, I don’t know. Or you mean isolated incidents of war crimes by few soldiers in 2020 war? There were cases of war crimes commited by Armenian soldiers too. So, what highly public atrocities? 

As for the exodus of Armenian population:

"Our people do not want to live as part of Azerbaijan. 99.9% prefer to leave our historic lands," David Babayan, an adviser to Samvel Shahramanyan, the president of the self-styled "Republic of Artsakh".

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/ethnic-armenians-will-leave-nagorno-karabakh-adviser-their-leader-2023-09-24/

 

Edited August 9, 2025 by AttilaA

[AttilaA]

Aliyev says that Azerbaijan is on the verge of discovering a huge new oil field, and that Socar and Exxon signed a MoU in relation to this.

“I don't want to say something in advance, but there is a high probability of a big oil discovery in Azerbaijan. As you know, Exxon is a leading energy company in the world and has great experience in modern technologies and also has extensive experience working in Azerbaijan. Exxon joined our Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli project in 1994, and the signing ceremony yesterday here, with the participation of Special Envoy Mr. Witkoff, the Deputy Secretary of Finance of the United States, and myself, actually demonstrates that we believe in the future of this project. Believe me, if we didn't believe, we wouldn’t have participated in the signing of the Memorandum of Cooperation. I participate in MoU signings very rarely. I sometimes participate in the signing of contracts, but this is an MoU. But we have a lot of factors, technical factors, in our possession to say that this will be a major discovery of hydrocarbons.”

https://en.apa.az/official-news/president-ilham-aliyev-gave-interview-to-azerbaijani-media-representatives-in-washington-video-updated-474644

[seahawk]

14 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

   I'm affraid you have not checked by message carefully - othervice you would have notice i am not "suggesting" anything, but just describing the situatioin of centuries-long collapse of Armenia-the-state from its former glory into oblivion or, at best case, misery.

  Their alternative was not to convert their state (former Soviet Republic they got in relatively good shape) into failed state, and not to ruin their relations with RF (while of course this relations were not too usefull as it is isolated theater of war). Now they have no alternatives.

I strongly believe there are high chances of AZ (in cooperation with Turkey) finishing off AM one day, for example when Erdogan or other Turkkish leader would need small victorious war to boost internal political support. 

Armenia should ask to become a part of Russia and with that they can reclaim all territory stolen. 

[glenn239]

Not unpredictably, an article appears citing a senior Iranian advisor stating that Iran will  "block" the US-Azeri corridor deal,

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202508093340

Iran will stop the establishment of a US-backed transit corridor in the South Caucasus even without Moscow’s help, as it would endanger regional security and alter the geopolitical map, Ali Akbar Velayati, a senior adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, said on Saturday.

[AttilaA]

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

Not unpredictably, an article appears citing a senior Iranian advisor stating that Iran will  "block" the US-Azeri corridor deal,

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202508093340

Iran will stop the establishment of a US-backed transit corridor in the South Caucasus even without Moscow’s help, as it would endanger regional security and alter the geopolitical map, Ali Akbar Velayati, a senior adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, said on Saturday.

That’s not up to Iran to decide.

 

Edited August 9, 2025 by AttilaA

[Mike1158]

Sabre rattling which is odd for a nation with only a scabbard.

[glenn239]

21 hours ago, Mike1158 said:

Sabre rattling which is odd for a nation with only a scabbard.

Provided that a mobilized strength of about a million troops is a scabbard, sure.

[AttilaA]

 

[JWB]

Poor Vlad is feeling left out again:

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

I for one would love to see an Azerbaijan v Russia fight. It wouldnt go the way Russia thinks it would. But maybe they realize that.

[Roman Alymov]

12 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

I for one would love to see an Azerbaijan v Russia fight. It wouldnt go the way Russia thinks it would. But maybe they realize that.

So now in addition to having dead "Ukrainians" you would love to see dead Azeris? Nice.......

[Roman Alymov]

19 minutes ago, JWB said:

Poor Vlad is feeling left out again:

No need to "ban", all we need is to prevent ethnic gangs (not only of ethnic Azeris) from avoiding the hand of law, while law-obeying hard working Russian citizens of ethnic AZ origin (and other origins) are valuable members of Rus society.