Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict

[AttilaA]

Aliyev:

"Our military budget for 2025 will be record high. It is about five billion dollars. Armenia will not be able to keep up with us in an arms race (despite French support).”

About defence contracts with Russia:

"As far as I know, Russia has temporarily withdrawn from the international arms market for obvious reasons. The deadline for the implementation of some contracts that were signed even four years ago was pushed back at Russia's request. We did this too, understanding the situation, as a result of which these contracts cannot be realized. But we are also closely following the innovations of the Russian defense industry. We have already developed new requests. We sent them relatively recently, and as the Russian defense industry is ready, we will, of course, enter into new contracts. So, I consider this process as temporarily suspended for objective reasons,"

https://en.apa.az/official-news/president-ilham-aliyev-was-interviewed-by-dmitry-kiselev-director-general-of-rossiya-segodnya-international-news-agency-updated-455849

 

 

 

 

Edited December 18, 2024 by AttilaA

[glenn239]

I remain astounded that Armenia is so stubborn or desperate that it veers towards the West when surely it must be known that Armenia is courting complete disaster by doing anything except trying to reach a long term understanding with the Azeris.  Am I missing something?  Does Armenia have a better hand to play than seems the case?

[Roman Alymov]

21 hours ago, glenn239 said:

I remain astounded that Armenia is so stubborn or desperate that it veers towards the West when surely it must be known that Armenia is courting complete disaster by doing anything except trying to reach a long term understanding with the Azeris.  Am I missing something?  Does Armenia have a better hand to play than seems the case?

The problem is policy of Armenia is now defined by relatively small group of liberal urban pro-Western upper/"creative" class, often on payroll of Western NGOs.  They do not care about Armenia as they see themselves "citizens of the world" who would be even better off as migrants to West.

[Roman Alymov]

23 hours ago, AttilaA said:

Aliyev:

"Our military budget for 2025 will be record high. It is about five billion dollars. Armenia will not be able to keep up with us in an arms race (despite French support).”

About defence contracts with Russia:

"As far as I know, Russia has temporarily withdrawn from the international arms market for obvious reasons. The deadline for the implementation of some contracts that were signed even four years ago was pushed back at Russia's request. We did this too, understanding the situation, as a result of which these contracts cannot be realized. But we are also closely following the innovations of the Russian defense industry. We have already developed new requests. We sent them relatively recently, and as the Russian defense industry is ready, we will, of course, enter into new contracts. So, I consider this process as temporarily suspended for objective reasons,"

https://en.apa.az/official-news/president-ilham-aliyev-was-interviewed-by-dmitry-kiselev-director-general-of-rossiya-segodnya-international-news-agency-updated-455849

 

 

 

 

Recent interview by Aliyev to Russian media

His Russian is extraordinary good (next to impossible to hear any accent). No idea how he manage to maintain this degree of language skills without using it as everyday language.

[AttilaA]

 

 

Edited January 4 by AttilaA

[Roman Alymov]

7 hours ago, AttilaA said:

 

 

Interestingly, he was born not in USSR, but in Aleppo (Syria), his family only moved to USSR in 1946/

    Also, despite of this victory speech in 1993, later he became more reasonable (and de-facto lost hisseat as result)

"In September 1997, Ter-Petrosyan gave one of his rare press conferences. He carefully outlined five possible options for Armenia. The first was the maintenance of the status quo: the de facto independence of Artsakh, hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijani refugees living in tent cities, the blockade of Armenia by Azerbaijan and the ongoing pressure from the international community. He rejected this option, as it would lead to "the loss of everything we have achieved over the years." He continued:

"It happened in Bosnia. The Serbs have lost everything. I don't think maintaining the status quo is a realistic option. We can persist for a year or two, but the international community will be annoyed and run out of patience."[8]

He also rejected the option of recognizing Karabakh as a fully independent state or its annexation to Armenia. Such steps would essentially be an ultimatum for both Azerbaijan and the whole world. He also rejected the option of resuming the war in order for Karabakh to somehow force Azerbaijan to abandon it.:

"I don't think Karabakh is capable of bringing Azerbaijan to its knees, because for that it will have to take Baku. But if he makes an attempt to seize at least one more district now, not to mention Baku, the world will not tolerate this."[8]

Thus, there were only two practical options left. The first was a "package" approach to peace: a one-time settlement that would include the simultaneous return of the occupied territories with the exception of the Lachin corridor, the deployment of peacekeeping forces along the Karabakh-Azerbaijan border, the lifting of the blockade, the return of refugees to their homes and the establishment of a buffer zone along the borders. The most difficult issue would remain unresolved — the status of Karabakh. Ter-Petrosyan stated that Armenia was ready to sign up to the package approach, but when both Karabakh and Azerbaijan rejected it in writing, the Armenian government was forced to reject it. Ter-Petrosyan concluded that the only remaining option was a step-by-step movement towards peace. The status issue should have been postponed until the first steps were taken. Ter-Petrosyan stated that Azerbaijan agreed to this approach and promised that Armenia would also give its response soon[8].

Ter-Petrosyan's frankness and his hint that Armenia might be inclined to a step-by-step solution, while Karabakh rejects it, marked a steady slide into a political crisis that ended with his resignation in early February 1998. His sober, realistic view of the political and economic trends in the South Caucasus outlined a future in which resource-poor Armenia would face oil- and gas-rich Azerbaijan. He reasoned that the victory in the war gave Yerevan the opportunity not to stand up, but to conclude a deal now that would guarantee both the security of Karabakh and the political and economic prosperity of Armenia. A step-by-step approach, which should have started with the withdrawal of Armenian troops from the occupied territories outside Karabakh, would have led to the emergence of mutual trust, which could have led to a long-term solution[8].

The president's conviction, which was so difficult for Armenians to accept, that neither Karabakh's independence nor its annexation to Armenia were possible outcomes of the negotiation process, was indeed extraordinary for a politician who needed a support base among both Yerevan and Stepanakert elites. In fact, he told the Armenians that they should accept that Karabakh would be formally (de jure) part of Azerbaijan, while the Azerbaijanis would have to accept that the Karabakh Armenians would have de facto full self-government. The details of this strange hybrid agreement still had to be worked out[9].

Ter-Petrosyan's move towards compromise, which was also acceptable to Azerbaijan in many ways, precipitated an open break with the Karabakh government, which rejected the basic principles of the OSCE Minsk Group agreement, which they interpreted as presupposing the "vertical subordination" of Karabakh to the government in Baku. There was an intense internal government struggle in Armenia at the end of 1997 and the beginning of the new year. After the Karabakh authorities rejected Ter-Petrosyan's proposals, many of his main colleagues in the government and parliament left him. Ter-Petrosyan decided to resign rather than risk a confrontation with the powerful ministers of defense and internal security. A new government was formed, headed by the former head of Karabakh (at that time, the Prime Minister of Armenia) Kocharyan, who was himself elected president of Armenia a few weeks later. Almost immediately, the Armenian government took a tougher stance on the Karabakh issue[9]"  Тер-Петросян, Левон Акопович — Википедия

[AttilaA]

Azerbaijani T-90s at Winter-2025 exercise in Turkey.

 

[glenn239]

Is there a budding alliance between Turkey and Azerbaijan?

 

[alejandro_]

On 1/4/2025 at 6:20 PM, Roman Alymov said:

Interestingly, he was born not in USSR, but in Aleppo (Syria), his family only moved to USSR in 1946/

 Also, despite of this victory speech in 1993, later he became more reasonable (and de-facto lost hisseat as result)

Thank you, that was very interesting. I have seen a few interviews of him, talking about the collapse of the USSR and conflicts that followed, and he gave a very good impression. 

[JWB]

https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1889344463538970847

Russian MP and former boxer Nikolai Valuev called Azerbaijani people “shobla-obla” – best translated as “gang of lowlifes” – and claimed the Azeri diaspora in Russia were after power and criminal influence.
Unsurprisingly, he was immediately declared persona non-grata by Azerbaijan – joining two other MPs, Konstantin Zatulin and Vitaly Milonov, on the growing list of Russian politicians banned by Baku. 

[Roman Alymov]

22 hours ago, JWB said:

https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1889344463538970847

Russian MP and former boxer Nikolai Valuev called Azerbaijani people “shobla-obla” – best translated as “gang of lowlifes” – and claimed the Azeri diaspora in Russia were after power and criminal influence.
Unsurprisingly, he was immediately declared persona non-grata by Azerbaijan – joining two other MPs, Konstantin Zatulin and Vitaly Milonov, on the growing list of Russian politicians banned by Baku. 

Not "Azeri people" but "Azeri diaspora" according to articles i see.

Actually, like it or not, "organised" diasporas (including, but not limiting to, Azeri one) is the major source of organised crime here in Russia, and their activity is the major factor of complicating the relations. If it makes you feel better, Armenian "diaspora" is in no way better. Note most of "regular" ethnic Azeri citizens of Russia  are staying clear off this "diaspora" activities. No idea why President Aliev, who is wise politician, is not taking any steps to limit activity of this people.

   The word "shobla" (from Hebrew word for "group, procession") is quite common in modern Russian and got no ethnic meaning.

P.S. Original text by Valuev is here - he is quite modest compared to what Trump is saying about cartels   https://t.me/nickvaluev/24478

 

Edited February 12 by Roman Alymov

[AttilaA]

On 7/1/2024 at 4:07 PM, AttilaA said:

Second C-27J for Azerbaijani Airforce.

[AttilaA]

 

[urbanoid]

Armenian PM:

'The draft of #Armenia-#Azerbaijan peace agreement has been agreed upon and awaits signing. I propose Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to begin joint consultations on the signing of the agreed draft peace agreement.'

https://x.com/NikolPashinyan/status/1902586119377572314

 

[Roman Alymov]

De-facto once proud nation of Armenia is capitulating to "Turks"

31.10.2024
The Armenian Foreign Ministry called the recognition of the genocide not the main priority of Yerevan
Armenian Foreign Minister Mirzoyan called the recognition of the genocide not a top priority

YEREVAN, October 31 — RIA Novosti. The Armenian authorities do not consider the international recognition of the Armenian Genocide in the Ottoman Empire to be their top priority, follows from a statement by Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan against the background of improving relations with Turkey.
"International recognition of the genocide <...> is not our number one priority. The study of the tragic events, the Armenian Genocide or their transformation into the number one priority is certainly not on the agenda of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs," he said. https://ria.ru/20241031/armeniya-1981063471.html?ysclid=m8h95px2jo495270124

  Well, good for them, they chose their fate....

[AttilaA]

3 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

De-facto once proud nation of Armenia

“Proud nation of Armenia”, that’s quite cringe, don’t you think?

Perpetual conflict propagated by so many Armenians (and seemingly their allies in Russia) can only lead to disappearance of Armenia as a state, nothing else. These delusions were crushed in 2020, and then again in 2023. Next time it would be even worse. After all, Armenia has not lost anything. All that has happened is that Azerbaijan and Armenia are finally within their internationally recognized borders (this is the opinion of Russia too).

Delusion is bad for your health.

 

Edited March 20 by AttilaA

[Roman Alymov]

Just now, AttilaA said:

“Proud nation of Armenia”, that’s quite cringe, don’t you think?

Perpetual conflict propagated by so many nationalist Armenians (and seemingly their allies in Russia) can only lead to disappearance of Armenia as a state, nothing else.

Let me remind you that first in history terror bombing campaign (3 explosions) in Moscow subway and other public places was not by some Islamic terrorists, but by Armenian nationalists back in 1977. 

[AttilaA]

5 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Let me remind you that first in history terror bombing campaign (3 explosions) in Moscow subway and other public places was not by some Islamic terrorists, but by Armenian nationalists back in 1977. 

I know their nature, I’m just saying that it’s bad for their health. It is them most of all who need peace instead of perpetual conflict.

Edited March 20 by AttilaA

[mandeb48]

And what did you mark in red on the map?

[AttilaA]

37 minutes ago, mandeb48 said:

And what did you mark in red on the map?

I didn’t mark anything, it shows the Syunik province of Armenia, situated between Azerbaijan proper and Nakhchivan exclave of Azerbaijan (where a separate army corps is located). 

As you can see, Armenia has quite bad strategic depth (rather, none at all). Yet there are many idiots dreaming of invading Karabakh. 

Edited March 20 by AttilaA

[Roman Alymov]

52 minutes ago, AttilaA said:

I know their nature, I’m just saying that it’s bad for their health. It is them most of all who need peace instead of perpetual conflict.

I'm not sure it is correct to believe there is some special "Armenian nature" - even leaving aside obvious fact all humans are different from each other, Armenians are strongly devided (as once they were populating huge territory of what is now Turkey and Azerbaijan, and present-day Armenia is just small part of this historic land that survived in AM hands because of Russian Empire saved them from all sort of "Turks" (for example, as far as i remember, Kurds were notable among participants of events known as Armenian Genocide). In the town i was born (Rostov-on-Don) there are traditionally TWO separated and visually different ethnic Armenian comunities originating from different regions (and bith of them have arrived from Armenia directly). So painting all Armenians into one color is, IMHO, wrong (as well as painmting all Azeries into one color - for example, i personally know ethnic Azeri man, former commander of the best regiment of RusArmy, veteran and strong patriot of Russia).

     But you are right there is a strong nationalism among Armenians (and by the way Georgians  - their historic competition was noted even in Soviet humor).

[urbanoid]

I only know one Radio Yerevan 'Armenian-Georgian' joke:

Listener: Is it possible to build communism in Armenia, where Radio Yerevan is located?
Yes, but it would be better to do it in Georgia.

A few others:

Listener: Dear radio, why don't you quote political jokes?
Dear listener, because we are very happy that we eat white bread by the Black Sea and not the other way around.

Listener: What is the definition of chaos?
We never reveal information about Soviet agriculture.

Listener: Is it true that the poet Mayakovsky committed suicide?
Yes, it is true. We even managed to record his last words: "Comrades, don't shoot!"

Listener: What is the most beautiful city in the USSR?
Radio Yerevan Editorial Office: Yerevan.
L: How many atomic bombs would it take to destroy Yerevan?
RY: But Moscow is also a beautiful city!

What is the socialist friendship of nations?
That Armenians, Russians, Ukrainians and other nations of the USSR unite in friendship to kick the Azeris.

Why was the Ministry of the Navy established in Armenia, which has no access to the sea?
To piss off the Azeris, who were given a Ministry of Culture.

 

 

Edited March 20 by urbanoid

[Roman Alymov]

26 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

I only know one Radio Yerevan 'Armeniam-Georgian' joke:

I would recommend more politically correct version of Armenian-Georgian competition from "Mimino" movie (1977), sort of dance competition between Armenian truck driver(short one, acted by great Armenian drama actor Mher "Frunzik" Mkrtchyan Frunzik Mkrtchyan - Wikipedia) and Georgian helicopter pilot (tall one, acted by great Georgian actor and thinger Vakhtang Kikabidze https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vakhtang_Kikabidze )

[AttilaA]

Azerbaijani pilots and technicians undergoing training on JF-17 Block 3.

https://x.com/Maron1918/status/1903897622810689795

[mandeb48]

Any data about the engine version