Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict

[Daan]

So why did Azerbaijan stop its successful advance after capturing Shusha?

The NYT reports that its president Aliyev was given an ultimatum by Putin to halt his army's advance and come to the negotiating table or Russia would have had to intervene militarily.

Edited December 1, 2020 by Daan

[Daan]

Apparently the conflict has peaked the interest of Russian tourists in the TB2!

 

Edited December 4, 2020 by Daan

[glenn239]

15 hours ago, Daan said:

Apparently the conflict has peaked the interest of Russian tourists in the TB2!

The Russians should be buying them from Turkey, not snooping out the factory.  

[BansheeOne]

Quote

Date 05.12.2020

Armenia: Tens of thousands rally to demand PM's resignation over Azerbaijan pact

Protesters have once again called for Nikol Pashinyan to quit over a peace agreement with Azerbaijan. The Russia-brokered pact was agreed after weeks of fighting over the Nagorno-Karabakh region that left thousands dead.

Tens of thousands of people took to the streets of Armenia on Saturday to call for the resignation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, in the biggest protest yet sparked by last month's agreement to end a recent territorial conflict with Azerbaijan.

After six weeks of fighting which resulted in 4,600 deaths, Pashinyan signed a pact with Azerbaijan, ceding control of large parts of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. The ceasefire deal, brokered by Russian President Vladimir Putin, came into force on November 10 and is kept in check by 2,000 peacekeepers deployed by the Kremlin.

Chants of 'traitor'

Pashinyan was denounced as a "traitor" in Saturday's protests after the Azerbaijani army reclaimed lands that Armenian forces had ruled for more than a quarter-century.

More than 20,000 protesters rallied in the capital city of Yerevan on Saturday, many of whom marched to the prime minister's official residence.

"The seat of the prime minister of Armenia is currently being occupied by a political corpse," Artur Vanetsyan, the leader of the opposition party Homeland and the former head of the National Security Service, said at the rally in Yerevan.

Loss of holy sites

Several priests of the Armenian Apostolic Church joined the demonstrations, criticizing Pashinyan for allowing Azerbaijan to take over several holy sites.

Armenia's opposition parties warned Pashinyan there would be civil disobedience across the country if he does not step down before noon on Tuesday.

Pashinyan has steadfastly refused to quit, defending the peace agreement as a painful but necessary act that prevented Azerbaijan from overrunning the entire Nagorno-Karabakh region, thus saving thousands of lives in the process.

https://www.dw.com/en/armenia-tens-of-thousands-rally-to-demand-pms-resignation-over-azerbaijan-pact/a-55835615

[Daan]

Russian troops using a remote controlled Uran-6 UGV to clear a field of mines. Perhaps only a demonstration of a safe field, as the operator stands awfully close to the UGV should a mine go off.

 

[Gavin-Phillips]

I guess the days of the flail mine clearing vehicle aren't quite dead yet then.  There doesn't seem to be much space between the crawler and the flail attachment.  I realise that its an unmanned vehicle and there are no crew inside to protect however would a single moderate-sized mine be enough to at least immobilise the vehicle?  That's going to get expensive pretty quickly.

[SALADIN]

https://ecfr.eu/article/military-lessons-from-nagorno-karabakh-reason-for-europe-to-worry/?fbclid=IwAR0XkWMtsGBCwfGxgDDVriSGfvChWKVdDTqICQQZfgqVnzwPQyH2UkoTKxA

[sunday]

53 minutes ago, SALADIN said:

https://ecfr.eu/article/military-lessons-from-nagorno-karabakh-reason-for-europe-to-worry/?fbclid=IwAR0XkWMtsGBCwfGxgDDVriSGfvChWKVdDTqICQQZfgqVnzwPQyH2UkoTKxA

Very nice to see you posting again!

[Simon Tan]

Outspend the other guy by a factor of 8. 

[SALADIN]

1 hour ago, SALADIN said:

https://ecfr.eu/article/military-lessons-from-nagorno-karabakh-reason-for-europe-to-worry/?fbclid=IwAR0XkWMtsGBCwfGxgDDVriSGfvChWKVdDTqICQQZfgqVnzwPQyH2UkoTKxA

Sunday , thanks for the welcome   . Read a few analysis by "  experts" on this side of the pond  at the beginning of the conflict and  almost all had written off the Azeris or at best were expecting a stalemate . This particular analysis above is interesting in that he says the Armenians were probably tactically better man for man but that the Azeris worked around that  strength of the Armenians .

The failings of the Armenian military intelligence to notice an all out offensive(rather than a limited operation)  is also a major factor in my mind .  

[Simon Tan]

The Armenian leadership was a mess due to the Pashinyan government realignment. The 'old hares' from the 'old days' were removed and replaced by politically loyal appointments. I expect this was an important calculation on the part of the Azeris.

[Simon Tan]

The Uran mineflail is a vestigial use of the unsuccessful UGV program.

[Stuart Galbraith]

4 hours ago, SALADIN said:

Sunday , thanks for the welcome   . Read a few analysis by "  experts" on this side of the pond  at the beginning of the conflict and  almost all had written off the Azeris or at best were expecting a stalemate . This particular analysis above is interesting in that he says the Armenians were probably tactically better man for man but that the Azeris worked around that  strength of the Armenians .

The failings of the Armenian military intelligence to notice an all out offensive(rather than a limited operation)  is also a major factor in my mind .  

Nice to see you back man.

[sunday]

5 hours ago, SALADIN said:

Sunday , thanks for the welcome   . Read a few analysis by "  experts" on this side of the pond  at the beginning of the conflict and  almost all had written off the Azeris or at best were expecting a stalemate . This particular analysis above is interesting in that he says the Armenians were probably tactically better man for man but that the Azeris worked around that  strength of the Armenians .

The failings of the Armenian military intelligence to notice an all out offensive(rather than a limited operation)  is also a major factor in my mind .  

Yes,  this analysis quite agrees with Tom Coopers'.

1 hour ago, Simon Tan said:

The Armenian leadership was a mess due to the Pashinyan government realignment. The 'old hares' from the 'old days' were removed and replaced by politically loyal appointments. I expect this was an important calculation on the part of the Azeris.

Armenia, another country victim of a color revolution.

[seahawk]

In the end they held on to their static defence line for way too long. In the end it was a Maignot line defeat. A line that can´t be broken is broken and the reaction to this is too slow.

[Simon Tan]

It is functional equivalence of defeating Saddam in GW1.

[SALADIN]

Saw a Armenian analyst who was describing the mindset that prevailed in the military circles : In most places with static deeply entrenched positions the Armenians had held their own , only in the south near the Iranian border had the Azeris made a deep penetration (Zangillan Province IIRC) . So not everything is lost right ?., And Lachin containing the critical supply road is heavily defended with the best units  and Shusha up high in the mountains was impenetrable .  So stalemate at best right ? .

Wrong on many  counts . The sector in the south where the breakthrough had happened was all important ( a micro version of Ardennes and the Maginot Line) . The Azeri units tried to take Lachin at first  but were rebuffed  by artillery firing from across the international border in Armenia . Crossing that border would mean opening up a can of worms .So they switched targets and attacked the "unassailable " Shusha with multiple groups of infantry approaching from many directions . Bitter hand to hand fighting ensued and Shusha fell  after an epic fight reminiscent of Mount Tumbledown in the Falklands or Mount Hermon in the 1973 Yom Kippur War .Checkmate. 

The Armenians had held all the cards for nearly 30 years and they had never used it to negotiate some sort of deal . Pity . In 2020 they lost almost all the cards . 

Stuart , thanks  . 

[RETAC21]

2 hours ago, SALADIN said:

Saw a Armenian analyst who was describing the mindset that prevailed in the military circles : In most places with static deeply entrenched positions the Armenians had held their own , only in the south near the Iranian border had the Azeris made a deep penetration (Zangillan Province IIRC) . So not everything is lost right ?., And Lachin containing the critical supply road is heavily defended with the best units  and Shusha up high in the mountains was impenetrable .  So stalemate at best right ? .

Wrong on many  counts . The sector in the south where the breakthrough had happened was all important ( a micro version of Ardennes and the Maginot Line) . The Azeri units tried to take Lachin at first  but were rebuffed  by artillery firing from across the international border in Armenia . Crossing that border would mean opening up a can of worms .So they switched targets and attacked the "unassailable " Shusha with multiple groups of infantry approaching from many directions . Bitter hand to hand fighting ensued and Shusha fell  after an epic fight reminiscent of Mount Tumbledown in the Falklands or Mount Hermon in the 1973 Yom Kippur War .Checkmate. 

The Armenians had held all the cards for nearly 30 years and they had never used it to negotiate some sort of deal . Pity . In 2020 they lost almost all the cards . 

Stuart , thanks  . 

It's interesting how the same lesson needs to be learned again and again by different actors. The Armenians fell into the same trap as the Israelis in 1973: we have been better in the past, we will always be better becuase they are unable to learn.

[Simon Tan]

The enormous disparity in spending would already be the first tell. Ultimately though, the Pashinyan government meant that the Russians would allow things to take their course for a lot longer. Their new backer would prove to be hollow, much like in Ukraine.

[AttilaA]

A victory parade will be held on December 10. Some of the captured Armenian equipment will be also displayed. 

Video of the rehearsal.

 

 

 

[SALADIN]

On 12/8/2020 at 12:43 AM, AttilaA said:

A victory parade will be held on December 10. Some of the captured Armenian equipment will be also displayed. 

Video of the rehearsal.

 

 

 

Rumours that the Armenian POWs will also be marched along during the parade  like what Stalin did with German POWs after “ “ Bagration “Fake news ? 

[Ssnake]

In that case, I demand a float for the Emperor accompanied by a slave whispering into his ear to remember that he, too, was mortal.

[Mistral]

Maybe they will also have ritualistic executions of said prisoners like the Romans after the end of the triumph.

[AttilaA]

@SALADIN

“Fake news?”

Obviously.

[Simon Tan]

I am curious about the actual dynamics of Baku-Ankara relationship.