Jump to content

Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict


Recommended Posts

23 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Or perhaps a base for Mossad operations. The ease with which the Israelis seem to be able to get some substantial equipment and people into Iran needs some explanation.

Agreed, but what would Azeris get out of it?  Seems like alot of risk for no gain.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Posted Images

Understood, but something has pissed the Iranians off, and since Iran is not exactly in a position to be shopping for unnecessary enemies at the moment, what exactly is going on?  This whole story for me has come out of left field and I'm trying to understand the broader picture.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

The better question would not be why do it at all, rather why now.

From 2014:

https://eurasianet.org/iran-shoots-down-israeli-drone-says-it-was-launched-from-azerbaijan

A Hermes 180 was downed in Iran, a battalion-level drone, over a strategic site. 

Becuase Israel has nothing to do with it:

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/turkeys-return-central-asia

"Turkey’s outreach to Central Asia is also dictated by its energy needs. Although major gas finds in the Black Sea were announced in 2020 by Ankara, the country still largely depends on external energy supplies. Hence, finding new sources of energy and ensuring that neither Russia nor Iran has a monopoly on energy transportation corridors is a major geopolitical concern for Turkey.

The Middle Corridor is also intended to complement Beijing’s massive Belt and Road Initiative. In November 2015, Ankara and Beijing signed a memorandum of understanding on aligning the Belt and Road Initiative and the Middle Corridor at the G20 summit in Antalya. Some further progress has been made: in 2019, China extended its currency swap agreement with Turkey, providing an additional $1 billion cash transfer to Ankara. Furthermore, the number of Chinese containers transported across the Caspian Sea via the Trans-Caspian Corridor increased by 111% in 2019 compared to the previous year. On 19 December 2020, the first freight train carrying cargo from Turkey to China via the Trans-Caspian Corridor completed its historic trip. Additionally, in late 2020, trains were sent from Turkey to China and back using the BTK route for the first time."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, sunday said:

Yes, you are right, they did not have any issue selling hardware to the PRC, either.

The entire western world at the time was both selling arms to China, and was perfectly okay with everyone doing it. Heck, the west even sold arms to Iran in huge numbers.

But, you know, Israel also did something. So now's the time to mention it. 

Almost as if someone has an agenda that includes a lot of obsession with something.

Or I could be wrong, sunday, in which case I'm sorry. You might be just the typical type of idiot.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Heck, the west even sold arms to Iran in huge numbers.

Yeah, sure, and the Russia of 1905 had the same political alignment than the Russia of 1925...

Edited by sunday
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

You might be just the typical type of idiot.

Thanks, and may Jesus bless your heart!

However, Why the typical type, and not an untypical type?

Edited by sunday
Link to comment
Share on other sites

https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/why-is-iran-deploying-troops-on-its-border-with-azerbaijan-50377/amp?__twitter_impression=true

Why is Iran deploying troops on its border with Azerbaijan

Tehran is not happy about Azerbaijan’s victory in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh against Armenia. And Baku’s restrictions on Iranian trucks entering the region escalated tensions between the neighbours.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, sunday said:

Yeah, sure, and the Russia of 1905 had the same political alignment than the Russia of 1925...

Yes. You said Israel sold arms to China in the 90's. Everyone, including the US, did it at the time. China had, at the time, realigned to meet some American interests, particularly China's new-found hostility, or at least end of its good relations, with Russia.

But you know this. Hence your very typical, and very unoriginal singling of Israel, shows you are not speaking out of a logical thought. Rather from either a personal trauma involving a Jewish person, or excessive presence on 4chan.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

You said Israel sold arms to China in the 90's.

Nope. I did not write that. I wrote:

Quote

Yes, you are right, they did not have any issue selling hardware to the PRC, either.

No mention of the date. Please do not put in my mouth things that I have not said.

The bit about Russia in 1905 and Russia in 1925 having the same political stance is notheworthy. Never thought Nicholas II was a Communist!

Finally, a nice picture of the best Queen of Spain. Just because.

Isabel-la-cat%C3%B3lica.jpg

Edited to remove questions that could need further, undesired, interactions.

Edited by sunday
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

But you know this. Hence your very typical, and very unoriginal singling of Israel, shows you are not speaking out of a logical thought. Rather from either a personal trauma involving a Jewish person, or excessive presence on 4chan.

I find this example of mind reading deserves some preservation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, sunday said:

No mention of the date. Please do not put in my mouth things that I have not said.

Then do provide the date. And I'll show you other western arms sales to China on that date.

24 minutes ago, sunday said:

Also, this question remains unanswered, and I find it quite intriguing:

You are the typical kind of idiot because you just take someone else's 5 minute craft tier opinion and make it yours. 

"Oh yeah everyone knows the Jooz did (insert any trigger word a level 3 r/conspiracy poster may barf given a yap-rate of 227 word-things per tendie)".

Hating on people isn't an asset. Especially if those people are influential, walk among you, and monitor you with brain chips.

If you're showing xenophobia / bigotry, at least be creative about it. Make your own trigger word or conspiracy theory, spread it far and wide. I hear r/GenZeDong are looking for fresh ideas. Consult with them perhaps.

Edited by Mighty_Zuk
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Last post. This one is a Jew, and He is also perfect God and perfect Man.

300px-Cristo_crucificado.jpg

Also, the Most Perfect Woman ever created, His Most Holy Mother Mary, also a daughter of King David:


927b55b9dfabad6cc72856a47d142926.jpg

No good Catholic could be Antisemite.

There is the Chief Rabbi of Rome during WWII, as a example.

Quote

After his conversion, Zolli was asked in an interview why he had "given up the Synagogue for the Church." Zolli responded saying, "But I have not given it up. Christianity is the completion or crown of the Synagogue. For, the Synagogue was a promise, and Christianity is the fulfillment of that promise. The Synagogue pointed to Christianity: Christianity presupposes the Synagogue. So you see, one cannot exist without the other. What I converted to was the living Christianity."[12]

 

Edited by sunday
Link to comment
Share on other sites

And now back on topic. 

Beyond the ideas presented here about why Iran is doing what it's doing, and some arguments it may not go far with its threats, it's worth mentioning Iran is fairly over-extended by now.

Because of its financial troubles, it maintains an armed force that is very polar in its capabilities. On one hand, its fighting units are light in nature - relying largely on infantry with light, mobile, cheap, and attritable weaponry and systems. They make no notable use of MBTs, heavy artillery, or employ combined arms tactics involving aviation. Their tactical assets are typically light artillery and recently the use of drones of various types.

On the other hand, they invest greatly in surface-level strategic capabilities for the theater and regional level, including SRBMs to attempts at ICBMs (space programs), long range cruise missiles and suicide drones. Rather than invest in deepening their existing strategic capabilities, they invest in creating more surface level capabilities to match emerging global trends.

It currently needs to supply allies like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Syria, the Houthis in Yemen, and allies in Africa. The most self reliant, Hezbollah, still does not produce a large enough share of its strategic weapons at home and requires deliveries of essential components from its sponsor. Despite the switch to delivery of components rather than complete system, there is overall a struggle to both arm allies and remain properly stocked.

Iran must maintain readiness to fight a sufficiently protracted war against Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE at the very least. Yet its existing stock of strategic munitions is only sufficient to make potshots at strategic sites like the Aramco oil facilities.

In any shooting war with either of its enemies, Iran will be unable to commit to more than a daily dripping of munitions at its enemies, or very few critically draining mass attacks. Even if we assume 0 attrition to enemy missile-hunting efforts.

Should there be any conflict with Azerbaijan, which would be highly unlikely for reasons stated above, Iran will be largely unable to commit any of its strategic assets to the fight, and would have to pit its lightly armed ground forces against the much more advanced, diversified, and better controlled Azerbaijani armed forces.

This does not bode well for Iranian deterrence, further hollowed by empty threats which show a sign of weakness.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Which would imply the main reason why they are are overreacting to its issues with Azerbaijan, they are weak, and about the only think they have left in abundance is threats.

 

Sounds like the Israelis are ramping up to attack Iran, and Iran is telling Azerbaijan to be neutral.  
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Sounds like the Israelis are ramping up to attack Iran, and Iran is telling Azerbaijan to be neutral.  
 

That is the most likely reason.

Iran knows Israel's preparations for an attack are candid, and its previous operations in Iran, including yesterday's, are both successful and significant.

This alone allows Israel to go a long way with its threats to attack - they are not empty. Relevant forces are actually making preparations and exercising based on already crafted and ever changing plans. It keeps Iran on edge.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

This alone allows Israel to go a long way with its threats to attack - they are not empty. Relevant forces are actually making preparations and exercising based on already crafted and ever changing plans. It keeps Iran on edge.

It seems more likely now than at any time in the past.  If so, then the IAF will need a forward air base, and if Azerbaijan is willing (and able) to play that role, then the IAF will be able to achieve more against Iran in a war than I had suggested in the past because the long range problem will be alleviated.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Iran is certainly trying to make it look like it's about Israel. Or ISIS, or something. 

Quote

Iran warns in Hebrew of 'foreign influence' amid Azerbaijan tensions

By TZVI JOFFRE   

OCTOBER 3, 2021 16:42

Iran warned a recent drill along the Azeri border was meant to serve as a warning to alleged Israeli influence in Azerbaijan.

Ali Shamkhani, secretary of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council, warned Iran's neighbors against "foreign influence" in a tweet published in Persian, Arabic, English and Hebrew on Saturday, amid heightened tensions with Azerbaijan.

"Powerful #Iran has always been benevolent to its neighbors & never posed a threat to them," wrote Shamkhani on Twitter. "Problems will be resolved with the cooperation of all countries in region. Any foreign influence is fruitless so we call on neighbors to be vigilant in this regard & to stay away from them."

The statement comes amid heightened tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan, after Azerbaijan began targeting Iranian trucks with fines and arrests, and Iran moved military forces to its border with Azerbaijan and warned against Israeli influence near its borders.

Iranian trucks were fined and at least two were arrested as they traveled on a road between the Armenian towns of Kapan and Goris which partially crosses through territory handed over to Azerbaijan after the Nagorno-Karabakh war last year, according to RFE/RL. The highway, patrolled by Russian peacekeepers, is Armenia's only link to Iran.

Tensions also rose recently due to joint military exercises carried out by Azerbaijan and Turkey in the Caspian Sea, with the Iranian Foreign Ministry warning that such drills violated international conventions banning the military presence of countries other than the five states which border the sea.

On Friday, Iran launched the "Conquerors of Khaybar" in northwestern Iran near the border with Azerbaijan. Kioumars Heydari, commander of the Iranian Army's Ground Forces, stated that the exercise was being conducted in order to test weapons and equipment and assess the readiness of the armed forces in any arena and along the borders of Iran, according to the Fars News Agency.

The name of the exercise, "Conquerors of Khaybar," may be a reference to the Battle of Khaybar, in which the Muslims, led by Muhammad, fought against the Jews in Khaybar, eventually defeating and imposing a tax on them.

Iranian officials have stressed that the exercise is meant to "send a message" to Israel and ISIS, warning that Iran will take any action necessary to defend its borders.

[...] 

https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/iranian-secretary-general-tweets-a-statement-in-hebrew-680874

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you think about it Iran is in a dangerous position as it's surrounded by real and potential enemies. It's got Azerbaijan to the north, Saudi Arabia and the UAE to the south west and Afghanistan to the east. It's border with Pakistan and Iraq are also hot zones for different reasons.

All in all it's strategic situation isn't good.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...