Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict

[Simon Tan]

What is an Armenian?

 

[Daan]

The Armenians have started to camouflage their vehicles with branches, but it does not seem to help that much (starting from 0:47):

 

[Dawes]

All these mostly drone-delivered munitions?

[Daan]

All are engagements by the Turkish TB2 drone, deploying Roketsan MAM-C and MAM-L munitions.

[bojan]

Re camouflage attempts - Too little, too late - during 1999. for every "active" position (AD or ground troops...) there were 4-5 reserve ones, and also about 10-15 fake ones.

Edited October 17, 2020 by bojan

[Roman Alymov]

Now they demand Russia to step in and save Armeinans...

 

not long ago they were demanding Russian occupants out 

[Roman Alymov]

2 hours ago, bojan said:

Re camouflage attempts - Too little, too late - during 1999. for every "active" position (AD or ground troops...) there were 4-5 reserve ones, and also about 10-15 fake ones.

In situation when AZ side could afford firing PGM on individual AM soldier in his foxhole, it is of no use. We have to remember that AZ military budget is about the same as total budjet of Armenia - so actually it is outstanding achievement for AM side to be able reduce AZ blitzcreig to crawl

 

[Roman Alymov]

On 10/15/2020 at 8:00 PM, Roman Alymov said:

Note in English subtitles "3 operations" actually mean "3 surgeries in process"

 

AZ video of the same hospital bombed

 

[Roman Alymov]

Euronews video from AM trenches

 

[Dawes]

Well, it's a good sales presentation for Turkish drones and air-to-surface munitions. I wouldn't be surprised if some countries are taking note.

[Daan]

9 hours ago, Dawes said:

Well, it's a good sales presentation for Turkish drones and air-to-surface munitions. I wouldn't be surprised if some countries are taking note.

Ukraine is apparently considering to buy another 48 TB2 drones.

BTW Note the strings of empty food cans along the trenches in the Euronews video.

[bojan]

12 hours ago, Dawes said:

Well, it's a good sales presentation for Turkish drones and air-to-surface munitions. I wouldn't be surprised if some countries are taking note.

Excelent marketing, but don't forget we will not be seeing misses and don't know extent of damage done to an armored vehicle in the lot of cases.

Edited October 18, 2020 by bojan

[bojan]

15 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

In situation when AZ side could afford firing PGM on individual AM soldier in his foxhole, it is of no use. ....

 

Whole point of the concealment and masking is to make them think in which of the 5-6 foxholes that soldier is. Then they either have to expand more ammo (and no, they can not afford that indefinitely), or select targets more carefully, which again reduces their effectiveness.

There were surveyance drones used practically 24/7 in some areas in 1999. (Pastrik and Kosare for example), but a smart use of concealment, masking and fake positions (something Armenians tried only a few times with SA-8 mockups - and look, it actually worked...) make that far more one sided game. Yes, terrain was better to use concealment, but it is far from a concluded things even in the desert like this.

Thing is... Armenians had 25 years to prepare for this, at least 3-4 wars to observe in order to learn new things and they have pretty much failed to do so, instead relying on "it will be the same war as a last time" (never mind that in that one they have also suffered from air a lot).

[JasonJ]

https://caucasus.liveuamap.com/

[Roman Alymov]

7 hours ago, Daan said:

Ukraine is apparently considering to buy another 48 TB2 drones.

BTW Note the strings of empty food cans along the trenches in the Euronews video.

Not sure there will be new Turkish drones at all (as they are mostly based on Western components), and while Azeri is definitely the stronger and far more wealthier side in this conflict (even if Turkey excluded) Ukraine is in reverse position (they only got superiority over Donbass republics alone, but we here in Russia hope Russian leadership would not dare to trade national interests for London bank accounts and leave Republics alone). Will see.  Anyway, my take here is that even very basic AD Artsakh have is enough to keep AZ manned aviation on the ground.

Re strings of empty cans on trench – it is standard practice since at least WWII on Eastern Front (sometimes used artillery shell cases were used  instead, as sort of small bell attached to the end of long wire)

[Daan]

As noted earlier, the role of the manned air forces in this conflict has received little attention. Azerbaijan claimed to have downed an Armenian Su-25 a few days ago and another Armenian Su-25 was lost earlier in the conflict. Of course, both countries have only a very small number of actual combat aircraft. So far, I have not seen any videos of jets in the skies over the battlefield.

[Roman Alymov]

6 hours ago, bojan said:

Whole point of the concealment and masking is to make them think in which of the 5-6 foxholes that soldier is. Then they either have to expand more ammo (and no, they can not afford that indefinitely), or select targets more carefully, which again reduces their effectiveness.

 

 

[Daan]

Video of Armenian infantry firing ATGMs, then quickly leaving their foxholes and running away from approaching Azeri tanks:

 

[bojan]

2 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

 

And?

[glenn239]

On 10/17/2020 at 2:47 PM, bojan said:

Re camouflage attempts - Too little, too late - during 1999. for every "active" position (AD or ground troops...) there were 4-5 reserve ones, and also about 10-15 fake ones.

Serbia's expertise should really have translated into Serbia military contractors teaching this stuff to other countries by now....

[glenn239]

On 10/18/2020 at 8:37 AM, bojan said:

Whole point of the concealment and masking is to make them think in which of the 5-6 foxholes that soldier is. Then they either have to expand more ammo (and no, they can not afford that indefinitely), or select targets more carefully, which again reduces their effectiveness.

S-300 systems are useless if they can be picked off by drones so easily.  The Russians have clearly been asleep at the switch on CIWS doctrine wrt the drone threat.  No doubt a crash program is underway now, but this will not help the Armenians at the moment.

Roman's assertion that countermeasures are useless does not make sense unless one assumes infinite resources on the AZ side.  Which will not be the case.  The defenders clearly need some sort of SA-24 style hand held AA missile capable of engaging the drones, and a cheap means to detect these targets close by.  If the attackers are exchanging one drone for one soldier in one of 15 foxholes, they'll run out of drone long before there's no soldiers in foxholes. 

[Josh]

The Russians definitely have their own anti drone tech deployed in Syria; they just haven't sold it to Armenia.

[glenn239]

Greek military is reported to be sending S-300's to Crete, aimed at Turkey.  If so, the fate of the Armenian systems will be of interest to them, given that it was Turkish drones that took out the batteries,

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2020/10/19/greek-s-300-missile-systems-are-preparing-to-fire-and-this-has-worried-turkey/

[Daan]

One aspect to take into account is that the Armenian systems are older S-300PS systems from the 1980s. Though the TB2 is not exactly tiny. Furthermore, some speculate that Turkish EW assets are active on the front.

[carrierlost]

15 hours ago, Josh said:

The Russians definitely have their own anti drone tech deployed in Syria; they just haven't sold it to Armenia.

Actually there have been Azeri video of Russian made Repellent-1 system destroyed. Apparently doesn't do much.

Strike at about 27sec in the video.