Brexit

[Marek Tucan]

TBH the Polish often look contradictory - esp. the PiS bunch, raging against EU and at the same time wanting EU support vs. Russia

 

As for Brexit exposing British internal bollocks, nope. After all, Britain would not be likely to get "as if nothing happened" deals re. tariffs etc., so will still have to conform to EU regs in a lot of spheres if they'd want it... So still plenty of ways how to cover up own issues with that. Guess whoo would be blamed by the Scottish, if the Scotxit passed and suddenly things were not that peachy as painted by the "Exit" camp. Hint: Few people are willing to admit voting for the wrong horse and most would just pile on whatever their horse would tell them if it means there is somene else to blame

[JasonJ]

 

Polish logic might be what defends Western Europe.

 

Do you really think Russian-Mongol hordes are going to occupy Germany/France/UK?

Poles are defending themselves, which is a good thing, their fault is like the last time, counting on French and UK being willing to help them. Well, they might fight same enemy, like the last time, but whole lot of good will that do for Poland.

Salami slicing over the long term.

 

If Poland wants to resume something like a normal life without militarizing itself to the extent like North Korea, they will need to form alliances. Poland is too small to completely rely on its own strength. And AFAIK, they are trying to get as many new tanks, SPGs, etc as they can.

[Corinthian]

 

"Look, bewbs!"

Pics, or I call BS

 

--

Soren

 

 

You can find it at Page 3.

[EchoFiveMike]

 

 

Polish logic might be what defends Western Europe.

Do you really think Russian-Mongol hordes are going to occupy Germany/France/UK?

Poles are defending themselves, which is a good thing, their fault is like the last time, counting on French and UK being willing to help them. Well, they might fight same enemy, like the last time, but whole lot of good will that do for Poland.

Salami slicing over the long term.

 

If Poland wants to resume something like a normal life without militarizing itself to the extent like North Korea, they will need to form alliances. Poland is too small to completely rely on its own strength. And AFAIK, they are trying to get as many new tanks, SPGs, etc as they can.

 

 

Poland should establish a robust reserve mobilization system, like Switzerland or Israel; focused on robust heavy forces, then stop ramping up this stupid shit with the Russians. Use the dysfunctional Ukis as a buffer state. Equip your forces so you can basically FASCAM the entire country and MLRS the Red hordes 150km from the Polish border. S/F....Ken M

[JasonJ]

 

 

 

Polish logic might be what defends Western Europe.

 

Do you really think Russian-Mongol hordes are going to occupy Germany/France/UK?

Poles are defending themselves, which is a good thing, their fault is like the last time, counting on French and UK being willing to help them. Well, they might fight same enemy, like the last time, but whole lot of good will that do for Poland.

Salami slicing over the long term.

If Poland wants to resume something like a normal life without militarizing itself to the extent like North Korea, they will need to form alliances. Poland is too small to completely rely on its own strength. And AFAIK, they are trying to get as many new tanks, SPGs, etc as they can.

Poland should establish a robust reserve mobilization system, like Switzerland or Israel; focused on robust heavy forces, then stop ramping up this stupid shit with the Russians. Use the dysfunctional Ukis as a buffer state. Equip your forces so you can basically FASCAM the entire country and MLRS the Red hordes 150km from the Polish border. S/F....Ken M

If there is to be an openly massive invasion, it would also come in the direction of Belarus, Lithuania, and Kaliningrad as well. But that is the unlikely doomsday kind of situation. Requires preparation to deter but unlikely. And it doesn't account for "partisan warfare" tactics which is turning populations of a state against the state, and the on going propaganda of spreading falsehood throughout the EU about Ukraine, Russia, etc and to usher in groups into greater positions that are more aligned to Russia in other EU countries such the UK, France, etc. Poland can only do so much in preventing these elements festering in the countries west of Poland. Changing minds is also a battlefield, for lack of a better word.

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

Polish logic might be what defends Western Europe.

Do you really think Russian-Mongol hordes are going to occupy Germany/France/UK?

Poles are defending themselves, which is a good thing, their fault is like the last time, counting on French and UK being willing to help them. Well, they might fight same enemy, like the last time, but whole lot of good will that do for Poland.

 

No. OTOH the Kremlin are clearly happy to model themselves the descendants of the Mongol horde according to the teachings of one Alexander Dugin, at which point one can understand everyone in Eastern Europe getting twitchy. Its perfectly understandable that Russia wants to be feared and respected. What they dont get, they dont get to choose the particular level of fear others feel of them. Its a slippery slope they really should have remembered last time they made themselves international pariahs.

 

As for Britain and France defending Poland, I seem to recall my Grandfather cooling his heels in the German Prison camp in Torun for well over a year before the Soviets found out the Nazi's were not to be trusted. So take digs at Western Europe and Britain by all means, but if we are going to have the equality you yourself demand of others, why dont you critique the Soviets for carving up deals at the Balts and Poles discomfort? Because im pretty damn sure the Poles and the Balts remember that, far more than Britain's inability to prosecute the war. Or perhaps Operation Unthinkable was a better resolution to the problem?

 

The Poles fault, if it was one, was being too trusting of their neighbours both east and west. I doubt they are going to make THAT particular mistake again and indeed, good for them.

Edited April 6, 2016 by Stuart Galbraith

[Stuart Galbraith]

TBH the Polish often look contradictory - esp. the PiS bunch, raging against EU and at the same time wanting EU support vs. Russia

 

As for Brexit exposing British internal bollocks, nope. After all, Britain would not be likely to get "as if nothing happened" deals re. tariffs etc., so will still have to conform to EU regs in a lot of spheres if they'd want it... So still plenty of ways how to cover up own issues with that. Guess whoo would be blamed by the Scottish, if the Scotxit passed and suddenly things were not that peachy as painted by the "Exit" camp. Hint: Few people are willing to admit voting for the wrong horse and most would just pile on whatever their horse would tell them if it means there is somene else to blame

 

Exactly. And this is just the thing the exit campaign refuse to acknowledge, that if we trade with Europe, we do it with European rules. Only this time we will have no means of altering European rules. Im not sure why they dont get this, Norway has been repeating it again and again.

[urbanoid]

 

 

Polish logic might be what defends Western Europe.

Do you really think Russian-Mongol hordes are going to occupy Germany/France/UK?

Poles are defending themselves, which is a good thing, their fault is like the last time, counting on French and UK being willing to help them. Well, they might fight same enemy, like the last time, but whole lot of good will that do for Poland.

 

No. OTOH the Kremlin are clearly happy to model themselves the descendants of the Mongol horde according to the teachings of one Alexander Dugin, at which point one can understand everyone in Eastern Europe getting twitchy. Its perfectly understandable that Russia wants to be feared and respected. What they dont get, they dont get to choose the particular level of fear others feel of them. Its a slippery slope they really should have remembered last time they made themselves international pariahs.

 

As for Britain and France defending Poland, I seem to recall my Grandfather cooling his heels in the German Prison camp in Torun for well over a year before the Soviets found out the Nazi's were not to be trusted. So take digs at Western Europe and Britain by all means, but if we are going to have the equality you yourself demand of others, why dont you critique the Soviets for carving up deals at the Balts and Poles discomfort? Because im pretty damn sure the Poles and the Balts remember that, far more than Britain's inability to prosecute the war. Or perhaps Operation Unthinkable was a better resolution to the problem?

 

The Poles fault, if it was one, was being too trusting of their neighbours both east and west. I doubt they are going to make THAT particular mistake again and indeed, good for them.

 

Yes.

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

 

 

 

Polish logic might be what defends Western Europe.

Do you really think Russian-Mongol hordes are going to occupy Germany/France/UK?

Poles are defending themselves, which is a good thing, their fault is like the last time, counting on French and UK being willing to help them. Well, they might fight same enemy, like the last time, but whole lot of good will that do for Poland.

Salami slicing over the long term.

If Poland wants to resume something like a normal life without militarizing itself to the extent like North Korea, they will need to form alliances. Poland is too small to completely rely on its own strength. And AFAIK, they are trying to get as many new tanks, SPGs, etc as they can.

Poland should establish a robust reserve mobilization system, like Switzerland or Israel; focused on robust heavy forces, then stop ramping up this stupid shit with the Russians. Use the dysfunctional Ukis as a buffer state. Equip your forces so you can basically FASCAM the entire country and MLRS the Red hordes 150km from the Polish border. S/F....Ken M

If there is to be an openly massive invasion, it would also come in the direction of Belarus, Lithuania, and Kaliningrad as well. But that is the unlikely doomsday kind of situation. Requires preparation to deter but unlikely. And it doesn't account for "partisan warfare" tactics which is turning populations of a state against the state, and the on going propaganda of spreading falsehood throughout the EU about Ukraine, Russia, etc and to usher in groups into greater positions that are more aligned to Russia in other EU countries such the UK, France, etc. Poland can only do so much in preventing these elements festering in the countries west of Poland. Changing minds is also a battlefield, for lack of a better word.

 

If there is going to be a war, I think it far more likely its going to move from light infantry to higher degrees of escalation inside hours. Im not even sure the armoured forces in which we put such great store are going to be of much relevance in such a conflict, other than for deterrence.

 

And yes, there is risk of such a conflict, for the first time in 25 years. Its very easy for the Kremlin to assert there is no danger of war from the Kremlin. Then we recall quite how often they have lied in the past 4 years and have to pay short shrift to it. Or at least do if we have an acre of common sense, which indeed seems hard to come by in Western Europe these days.

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

 

 

Polish logic might be what defends Western Europe.

Do you really think Russian-Mongol hordes are going to occupy Germany/France/UK?

Poles are defending themselves, which is a good thing, their fault is like the last time, counting on French and UK being willing to help them. Well, they might fight same enemy, like the last time, but whole lot of good will that do for Poland.

 

No. OTOH the Kremlin are clearly happy to model themselves the descendants of the Mongol horde according to the teachings of one Alexander Dugin, at which point one can understand everyone in Eastern Europe getting twitchy. Its perfectly understandable that Russia wants to be feared and respected. What they dont get, they dont get to choose the particular level of fear others feel of them. Its a slippery slope they really should have remembered last time they made themselves international pariahs.

 

As for Britain and France defending Poland, I seem to recall my Grandfather cooling his heels in the German Prison camp in Torun for well over a year before the Soviets found out the Nazi's were not to be trusted. So take digs at Western Europe and Britain by all means, but if we are going to have the equality you yourself demand of others, why dont you critique the Soviets for carving up deals at the Balts and Poles discomfort? Because im pretty damn sure the Poles and the Balts remember that, far more than Britain's inability to prosecute the war. Or perhaps Operation Unthinkable was a better resolution to the problem?

 

The Poles fault, if it was one, was being too trusting of their neighbours both east and west. I doubt they are going to make THAT particular mistake again and indeed, good for them.

 

Yes.

 

Which might have been another 4 years of war. I get the postwar narrative that Polish subjugation under communism could have been avoided. The problem I have is the belief that there would have been any poles left after Unthinkable to rebuild Poland.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Unthinkable

 

That said, I think Churchill might have been up for it. So who was going to convince Truman it was a good idea, because that was the problem here. Churchill was the warmonger, Truman was the one who wanted a postwar alliance with the USSR. It was a non starter, even if politically it could have been justified.

[Simon Tan]

Damn you Polish Logic is my schtick.

[urbanoid]

As for the first paragraph - doubt it. During 6 years of war we lost 6 million people, vast majority (~90%) of them were victims of genocidal policies of two totalitarian powers, not the warfare itself. And here we're talking about war that many prayed for, not only in Poland.

 

As for 'trusting the UK too much' I am against speaking about 'betrayal' during and after WW2. UK (& France) did what they were supposed to do - declared war on Germany. The former fought where it was strong - in the seas & oceans from day 1 of the war. The latter did what it was designed to do, i.e. sit in the fortifications and we were fully aware of it. The guarantees were given to deter Germany, defending/aiding Poland was impossible, especially after 17.09. Did we take into consideration that much/most/all of the country can be occupied by Germany in the end? Yes, we did, what we lacked was 20/20 hindsight about genocidal nature of the Nazis. Not a surprise when you think that they have not committed it by then - yet. After the war Churchill couldn't do jack shit w/out US approval.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Look, opinions vary. I do get after reading Applebaums Iron Curtain book (herself descended from Poles) the Eastern European view on Communism, that even war would have been preferable. I can understand that view, particularly for post cold war generations who didnt experience the cold war directly. Well I can only add that one only has to look at the 45 years after WW2 and suggest that both sides gave it a damn good try to have one, and it was hardly our fault it didnt come off.

Edited April 6, 2016 by Stuart Galbraith

[DB]

All of this is very interesting, but it seems that one of the "EU is bad" tropes is actually a long standing myth originating in the US.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-35962999

 

Chinese whispers, or is this cultural appropriation? There cannot be a cabbage regulation gap!

[Stuart Galbraith]

As for the first paragraph - doubt it. During 6 years of war we lost 6 million people, vast majority (~90%) of them were victims of genocidal policies of two totalitarian powers, not the warfare itself. And here we're talking about war that many prayed for, not only in Poland.

 

As for 'trusting the UK too much' I am against speaking about 'betrayal' during and after WW2. UK (& France) did what they were supposed to do - declared war on Germany. The former fought where it was strong - in the seas & oceans from day 1 of the war. The latter did what it was designed to do, i.e. sit in the fortifications and we were fully aware of it. The guarantees were given to deter Germany, defending/aiding Poland was impossible, especially after 17.09. Did we take into consideration that much/most/all of the country can be occupied by Germany in the end? Yes, we did, what we lacked was 20/20 hindsight about genocidal nature of the Nazis. Not a surprise when you think that they have not committed it by then - yet. After the war Churchill couldn't do jack shit w/out US approval.

There certainly COULD have been a window when Britain and American talked over such a war, post Roosevelt and when Churchill was still in office. But I think even then, Truman didnt get Stalin, and thought accommodation could be made And when the British left took over they had the same attitude, that times had changed and we could work with Stalin. Well, in fairness the British FCO only took 3 years to determine this was impossible. Which implies our forebears were rather quicker on the uptake than present generations.

 

Ultimately the Commonwealth had enough by 1945. I think without Japan Unthinkable might just have been viable. But that would have took a groundswell against Russia, and to be honest I dont think after 4 years of propaganda painting Uncle Joe as an Ally, it could have been overturned so very quickly.

 

Ill leave others to judge whether it was a good idea or not. In one sense its irrelevant, because Unthinkable was just that. Britain didnt have the manpower or money for it, the French wanted to rebuild their nation and their Empire, and the Americans wanted to leave Europe to get its shit together. It was only post 1947 attitudes had changed, and by then we had all but demilitarized.

[Stuart Galbraith]

All of this is very interesting, but it seems that one of the "EU is bad" tropes is actually a long standing myth originating in the US.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-35962999

 

Chinese whispers, or is this cultural appropriation? There cannot be a cabbage regulation gap!

I recall what I said the other day to Bill about saying there should be trading standards for parliamentary utterences. After reading that it seems and even better idea.

[DB]

If we had such a standard, it would have 26,911 words.

[Stuart Galbraith]

[bojan]

...

 

You missed a point again. If France and UK really cared about Poland (which is a dubious idea in a politics, but hey...) they would have declared war to USSR as well when they marched into Poland. They did not.

Edited April 6, 2016 by bojan

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

...

 

You missed a point again. If France and UK really cared about Poland (which is a dubious idea in a politics, but hey...) they would have declared war to USSR as well when they marched into Poland. They did not.

 

You evidently missed the point that the reason Britain declared war on Germany is that firstly we couldn't trust Hitler's word, and secondly the Fuhrer evidently liked gobbling up territories around his borders based on dubious precedent from history. So if you are Polish or a Balt, what historical lesson is going to mean most to you?

 

As for Britain caring for Poland, one might point to the large Polish expat community that lived and still live in the UK based on Britain giving them shelter postwar. I know, I live right next door to what was one of the resettlement facilities.Ive never detected from the individuals who came from it (some of whom lived in the village till 20 years ago) they held the Uk in anything but respect for giving them shelter. I dont remember them holding the Soviets in the same regard.

http://www.polishresettlementcampsintheuk.co.uk/babdowncamp.htm

[BillB]

All of this is very interesting, but it seems that one of the "EU is bad" tropes is actually a long standing myth originating in the US.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-35962999

 

Chinese whispers, or is this cultural appropriation? There cannot be a cabbage regulation gap!

Well to be fair mate, and I may have missed it, but I haven't seen anything about cabbages at all in the current "EU is bad" tropes or anywhere else.

 

I have however seen "EU is good" tropes claiming that leaving the EU will destroy the NHS, the football premier league, will undermine UK security, cause mortgage rates to rise and make petrol more expensive. And let's not forget Call Me Dave's stunning success in forcing reform on the EU which, despite initially promising all manner of wonderful stuff, amounted to an unratified "agreement" to reduce VAT on women's sanitary products.

 

BillB

[Stuart Galbraith]

If leaving the EU did indeed destroy the Football Premier league, even I might tempted towards Brexit. It appeals to the anarchist in me.

[DB]

 

All of this is very interesting, but it seems that one of the "EU is bad" tropes is actually a long standing myth originating in the US.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-35962999

 

Chinese whispers, or is this cultural appropriation? There cannot be a cabbage regulation gap!

Well to be fair mate, and I may have missed it, but I haven't seen anything about cabbages at all in the current "EU is bad" tropes or anywhere else.

 

I have however seen "EU is good" tropes claiming that leaving the EU will destroy the NHS, the football premier league, will undermine UK security, cause mortgage rates to rise and make petrol more expensive. And let's not forget Call Me Dave's stunning success in forcing reform on the EU which, despite initially promising all manner of wonderful stuff, amounted to an unratified "agreement" to reduce VAT on women's sanitary products.

 

BillB

 

 

The article does provide a couple of examples where the cabbages thing has been trotted out a few times (in several variants) by UKIP, someone from the Adam Smith Institute and by some airhead at the Daily Heil.

 

Note, however, that I refer the honorable curmudgeon to the answer I gave some moments ago - that both sides have no real interest in "the truth", whatever it may be.

I suspect that the majority of those who bother to vote will do so based on falsehoods, vaguely expressed opinions and "gut feelings" rather than via a measured evaluation of objective criteria.

Just like most voting, then.

[Stuart Galbraith]

In short, may the best lie win.

[bojan]

You evidently missed the point that the reason Britain declared war on Germany is that firstly we couldn't trust Hitler's word, and secondly the Fuhrer evidently liked gobbling up territories around his borders based on dubious precedent from history.

 

Bolded bit.

 

So if you are Polish or a Balt, what historical lesson is going to mean most to you?

That "west" will declare victory and they will be left fucked up.

Edited April 6, 2016 by bojan