Brexit

[Panzermann]

Yeah, well, our PM can jive, and your Chancellor cant, so yah boo sucks.

 

www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbCDFNRA-Wo

Merkel is her very own brand of awkward with the lozenge of power secret hadn sign.

 

 

 

Somehow you just know Jacob Rees Mogg cant dance.

 

It will tear a new one into spacetime if he rocked his hips.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Well the Mogg probably cant dance, but he clearly is a cunning linguist...

 

 

Im sorry btw if im not taking this all terribly seriously. We just have had about 2 years of Brexit, and frankly I think we are all about ready to scream from it.

[Panzermann]

Im sorry btw if im not taking this all terribly seriously. We just have had about 2 years of Brexit, and frankly I think we are all about ready to scream from it.

 

When you cannot cry, laugh.

[Roman Alymov]

Yeah, well, our PM can jive, and your Chancellor cant, so yah boo sucks.

 

 

Somehow you just know Jacob Rees Mogg cant dance.

Nothing new is new. But Yeltsin is partly excused by being drunk

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

Im sorry btw if im not taking this all terribly seriously. We just have had about 2 years of Brexit, and frankly I think we are all about ready to scream from it.

 

When you cannot cry, laugh.

 

 

I detect a distinct Brexit weariness in Britain. I honestly think people would wish the damn thing was over. But even when it is over, I predict the Carpet Biting Right and Left wing will say its not Brexit enough, and the Remoaners will say its not a close enough relationship. One thing a settlement of Brexit will not do will be settlement. We will still pick over it like an unhealed ulcer whatever happens.

 

To put it in perspective, ive had it on CNN for the past 3 weeks. Not because of any superiority in their coverage, its about the only damn way we can get out of them talking about Brexit 24/7. (Which CNN do but at least its enlivened by being presented by Bianca Nobilo). I swear, the British media pay more attention to Europe now we are leaving, than we ever did when we were in it.

Edited October 4, 2018 by Stuart Galbraith

[DB]

Outcome after two years is going to be a Hard Exit.

 

If the EU had actually just said "don't bother, you're getting nothing", or we'd said "fuck it, we don't need no steenkin' deal" we'd already be 2 years on our way to recovery by now.

 

It's pathetic.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Yes, ive always thought it was going to be a hard Brexit, right from the start. Neither side keep capable of slaughtering the sacred cows that make a deal viable.

 

Its a shame. I do not know why, but ive some respect for May. She deserves a better hand.

[BansheeOne]

Frankly, I think the Brexiteer Tory wing's plan for a free trade agreement, despite the handwaving about the Irish border and the considerable time it will take to negotiate, is a lot more realistic than May's complicated Chequers contraption with "we will still be part of the Common Market but just for goods, and each side will collect duties for the other on transit".

[Stuart Galbraith]

Banshee, its not handwaving. Accepting the EU position on the Irish sea trade barrier is basically saying that Northern Ireland is more part of Eire than it is the UK. Now if you are a Unionist (even a non Orangeman Unionist) you are going to be alarmed by that. And more to the point, May only has a majority because of those very same Unionists. So the EU continually pushing on the Irish border question (or more accurately, the Irish sea option) is basically saying May has a choice between a deal she cant pass through Parliament, or no deal at all. I know what she would rather choose, but that she is being herded into a pen here.

 

If someone told the Italians they could leave the EU, but they would have to figure out some way to leave Sicily behind, how do you think they would react? Yes, this all should have been discussed in the leave campaign, but we are where we are.

 

In the end, the EU has a choice between dealing with May, a hard Brexit, or dealing with Jeremy Corbyn. The idea that better options will materialize if they present a united front is really the same kind of burying the head in the sand that led to the leave vote in the first place.

 

 

But hey, im laid back. Ive already got my bunker picked out. The strongest will survive. Probably.

Edited October 5, 2018 by Stuart Galbraith

[BansheeOne]

I'm aware of the problems the Irish question presents for Brexit. The handwaving is in not presenting a solution in the plans, other than supposedly some reference to "technical means". Which I know is hard to do, given that practical requirements are damn-near mutually exclusive.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Yes, well I think we can both agree Brexit was never about practicality.

[toysoldier]

Yes, well I think we can both agree Brexit was never about practicality.

There's no practical way of untying the Gordian Knot of Eurogulation. Oh wait there's one...

[Panzermann]

 

Yes, well I think we can both agree Brexit was never about practicality.

There's no practical way of untying the Gordian Knot of Eurogulation. Oh wait there's one...

 

 

Not really. When you want to export into the EU, you have to follow their regulations.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Hotel Europa. You can checkout any time you like, but you can never leave.

 

I thought this was interesting.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/gavin-williamson-threatens-to-block-eu-access-to-british-facilities-for-rival-satellite-projects-a8564656.html

[rmgill]

Not really. When you want to export into the EU, you have to follow their regulations.

The us exports into the EU. That doesn't require dividing up part of the US to be considered still part of the EU.

 

You just have to negotiate with a position of strength instead of with your hat in your hands begging for some consideration. The UK HAD a position of strength, PM May gave it away.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Yes, but the US is a powerful industrial economy and can, if it so feels, bully to get its way. it also doesnt have the baggage of being an EU member that had the temerity to leave and left a considerable degree of bad blood behind.

 

Basically, we're fucked. The only thing that has not been decided is the paperwork to decide how fucked we are. But you can kiss goodbye to the British car industry at least. I can see Jaguar upping sticks and moving elsewhere for starters.

 

Yes, we get our country back. But at what cost?

[rmgill]

The UK's economy isn't chump change either. Neither is that big 'exit the euro-fee'. Those were your barganing chips.

 

You had the ability to get your country back without being bent over the table. Your PM fucked that up.

 

What are the odds she retires and ends up an EU Technocrat somewhere in continental Europe?

 

And obviously you didn't get your country back, because you got sold out as a colony to the EU.

Edited October 6, 2018 by rmgill

[Stuart Galbraith]

The UK's economy isn't chump change either. Neither is that big 'exit the euro-fee'. Those were your barganing chips.

 

You had the ability to get your country back without being bent over the table. Your PM fucked that up.

 

What are the odds she retires and ends up an EU Technocrat somewhere in continental Europe?

 

And obviously you didn't get your country back, because you got sold out as a colony to the EU.

 

Yes, but what IS our economy these days? If you look at what we sell, the predominant export as far as value is Gold. Now if we had gold mines comparable to that in the Clondyke I would be overjoyed. All this measures is the throughput of gold through Heathrow airport to somewhere else. The rest is financial services, which employs a relatively small chunk of the economy, mainly in the Southeast. The car industry does, but its dependent on importation from the continent on parts (because many of these companies are multinational's) and even long established brands like Landrover as now setting up manufacturing plants in Eastern Europe. I looked at figures of what we were exporting in 2013 some months ago. Our economy was just about level pegging with Mexico. Think about that.

 

The problem is Ryan, you have this misty eyed view of the Industrial powerhouse we were in the 1950's. Thats about as dead as Detroit. There ARE areas, such as measurement equipment, aircraft components, where we are still among the best. But nobody has any answers how well that is going to survive if they are cut off from their prominent export market and component source. In fact, in the Brexit debate it never came up, because we were told that the EU would swoon like virgins at our feet.

 

The Brexiteers say 'Well the remoaners were on mission fear, the economy hasnt collapsed'. The answer to that of course is, we havent left yet. Give it 6 Months.

Edited October 6, 2018 by Stuart Galbraith

[Der Zeitgeist]

The tragic thing is, you guys got yourselves into this mess without even having an honest debate about the ramifications BEFORE the referendum.

 

It's just mind-boggling to me that, for example, the whole Northern Ireland issue only popped up in the debate AFTER the UK already voted to leave. Sure, there were some policy experts talking about that earlier, but it was all drowned down with this insane "project fear" talking point of the Brexiteers, who sold this whole project with the attitude of a used car salesman instead of debating the issues properly. I still remember Michael Gove sneering in his "the people have had enough of experts" comment.

 

 

For me, personally, this was also the point where I basically stopped paying attention to the Brexit debate in the UK. If a country willingly chooses to get scammed by a bunch of political con men with totally irrational arguments, there is simply no point to debate any longer, and they deserve what's coming to them.

 

It was a con job, from beginning to the end, using bullshit talking points and fairy tales to get the public, who never really understood the mechanisms of the EU, to vote leave. The Brexit-cheering politicians, who promptly resigned after getting you into this mess, will probably spend their retirement on the Cayman Islands or wherever, while the country went from "Take back control!" to "There will be adequate food supplies."

 

If you want to get a good overview over the whole insanity of this disaster, I suggest this video by Thunderf00t:

 

Oh, and one more thing I never really understood: The whole idea that the UK would have a negotiating position the Brexit talks that would somehow lead to a compromise that could be acceptable to BOTH the EU and the UK.

I mean, I just don't get it. For the EU, the situation after the Brexit referendum always was one of pure survival of the institution. Every populist party on the continent was already talking about having their own "Nexit", "Frexit" and so on. If the EU wanted to survive, there could never be a compromise that would somehow be deemed a successful Brexit for the UK, pour encourager les autres, so to speak. It was always either a hard Brexit (meaning without frictionless trade) or no Brexit, everything else wouldn't be in the interest of the EU.

And I don't get how the UK didn't understand this point from the beginning. How would anyone believe that the EU would not bargain in its best interest?

Edited October 6, 2018 by Der Zeitgeist

[toysoldier]

This guy. This guy alone is one very powerful reason to Brexit.

[Der Zeitgeist]

This guy. This guy alone is one very powerful reason to Brexit.

 

Oh, look, it's toysoldier. He also has had enough of experts.

 

The funny thing is, I used to be an Eurosceptic myself, but after spending months debating insane populist and Brexiteer talking points on different forums, one gets a whole new appreciation of the EU.

Edited October 6, 2018 by Der Zeitgeist

[DB]

Fuck off back to the other topics this one doesn't need you two handbaghing each other like a pair queens who showed up wearing the same pair if leopard print heels.

Edited October 6, 2018 by DB

[toysoldier]

Too big boned for heels, charmer, flats are me. Spot on the leopard print though.

[BansheeOne]

The thing about increased appreciation of the EU over the Brexit process is very true though, and shows across all member states.

 

 

I've said it before, the Brexiteers' delusion was in thinking that the UK had anything to offer that would make the EU negotiate at eye level, if not even throw itself at their feet and give in to all demands, granting continued access to the Common Market without insisting on all of the associated freedoms, at no cost. Yes, Europe will be weakened politically and economically when Britain leaves. Yes, it is going to take a hit from losing unhindered access to the British market, too. Yes, there will be a gap in budget contributions (though not as big as it would be if the UK hadn't thoughtfully secured its rebate). But it is much, much bigger than Britain, for which the impact will be much, much greater.

 

The whole idea behind the EU after all was attaining a joint weight so that you would not be pushed around in negotiations by current or emerging big powers like the US, China and India like as a smaller individual member. And in the end, the UK is asking concessions of the EU, which is an awkward spot if your aim is leaving anyway - because what are you gonna threaten if you don't get your wishes? I'm always coming back to the basic principle that any association always champions the interests of its members who will stay, not the one who's going to leave and have no say on its affairs in the future.

[seahawk]

 

Not really. When you want to export into the EU, you have to follow their regulations.

The us exports into the EU. That doesn't require dividing up part of the US to be considered still part of the EU.

 

You just have to negotiate with a position of strength instead of with your hat in your hands begging for some consideration. The UK HAD a position of strength, PM May gave it away.

 

 

Yes, but not totally free. There are tariffs and some goods are blocked due to different set of rules in both sides. But in the end the topic of goods moving between the 2 sides is a minor problem that is easy to solve, the problem is people and services.