Brexit

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

 

Its the irish, what they gonna smugle? If its booze they'll drink it, if its not they aren't interested.

 

Well Tommy Guns maybe. But as the American point out, we are oppressed and degunned, so no problem there.

 

I can remember that during the troubles we had Operation Motorman, where we bulldozed roads to ensure that most cards could go down routes, so we could search them. It would be a relatively easy to job to do the same thing again and put in electronic checkpoints. I mean yes, it wouldnt be popular, but if its that or a hard border, I think even the Irish would have to see the advantages.

 

Op Motorman was the clearing of streets in Derry not closing crossings on the border.

 

The border is an interesting point. Small roads were blocked with concrete bollards and girders and in some places old water tanks (EWTs) filled with concrete. Other roads across the border were open but funneled into check points. We also had the Monaghan concession road but as there was no link to the UK from that road there was no checkpoint. HGVs had to cross the border at designated point (and for the most part getting an HGV down some of those roads would be taxing with multiple 90 degree bends) which had the facilities to search them. Customs points did exist but were hardly ever manned. The army was not interested in you moving an extra ten boxes of fags and at christmas I stopped many a car full to the top with tins of quality street going north or south depending on who was selling them cheapest that year. Petrol stations would open or close dependant on the price at the time in each country. People would drive 30 miles to fill up. My brother in law had a dental practise in Enniskillen till the crash and his southern paying customers dried up.

 

The real smuggling was done in the open so to speak, you just couldn't catch them. Farmer Fionn would have a barn built on both sides of the border. Depending on price and subsidies cattle would go in the south door and out the north door so that they could collect the money. Next week the same cattle would walk back and he would claim again. The same would be true for diesel which would be filtered of the dye.

 

If they needed to reinstate the check points it is already mapped but they are not going to build a fence as a lot of farmers have fields on both sides of the border. The real border will be at the ferry ports.

 

Brain fart on my part, my apologies.. What was the one for destroying the crossings, it clearly had a Operation name assigned to as I recall.

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

I still believe in free trade. I still believe a common European trade area is a good idea. The rest of it is a lot of ideological crap that wants throwing on a bonfire.

Why do you need to cede your national sovereignty to Brussels (and Strasbourg) in order to have free trade?

 

 

I dont believe you do Ryan. We arguably didnt under the EEC.

[Briganza]

Stuart I don't think it was an Op in the normal understanding of an operation. It just grew and was modified.

 

http://www.historyandpolicy.org/policy-papers/papers/brexit-and-the-history-of-policing-the-irish-border

 

Reading that has brought back memories of things we used. A database of vehicle registrations linked to wider intelligence was setup called Vengeful. A Vengeful terminal was only available at significant crossings but if you wanted data on a vehicle at a crossing not connected you would radio to a location with a terminal. Results from Vengeful were almost instantaneous and would give info on the vehicle, its owner, registered address and any int on its use. With the advances in and the widespread use of vehicle registration recognition it would be a lot easier to track vehicles crossing the border.

 

If people think that you can close a border with complete success they are delusional. Just look at the IGB with its use of mines, fences and guard towers and still some people got through.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Stuart I don't think it was an Op in the normal understanding of an operation. It just grew and was modified.

 

http://www.historyandpolicy.org/policy-papers/papers/brexit-and-the-history-of-policing-the-irish-border

 

Reading that has brought back memories of things we used. A database of vehicle registrations linked to wider intelligence was setup called Vengeful. A Vengeful terminal was only available at significant crossings but if you wanted data on a vehicle at a crossing not connected you would radio to a location with a terminal. Results from Vengeful were almost instantaneous and would give info on the vehicle, its owner, registered address and any int on its use. With the advances in and the widespread use of vehicle registration recognition it would be a lot easier to track vehicles crossing the border.

 

If people think that you can close a border with complete success they are delusional. Just look at the IGB with its use of mines, fences and guard towers and still some people got through.

 

Cheers for that.

[BansheeOne]

Watch this space.

 

Conservative Party Conference 2018 LIVE: Boris Johnson to give eagerly anticipated Brexit speech

 

James Morris | 6 minutes ago |

 

Boris Johnson is set to make his much anticipated speech at the Conservative Party conference on Tuesday.

 

Mr Johnson has repeatedly criticised Theresa May over her Chequers blueprint for Brexit, fuelling speculation about his supposed ambition to become Prime Minister.

Mr Johnson’s supporters are hoping Tuesday’s speech, which starts at 1pm, will pave the way for a leadership bid.

 

The speech comes after it was reported that if he does topple Ms May, he would delay Brexit by at least six months.

 

Follow updates from the conference, and Mr Johnson’s speech, here.

 

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/conservative-conference-live-boris-johnson-to-give-eagerly-anticipated-brexit-speech-a3950856.html

[Stuart Galbraith]

Im inclined to think a reporter speaking at the Conference the other day has a point. Conservatives will look at May, a person that absolutely will not quit and shows a commendable public duty, however misguided, to keep going and get Britain out the hole. And they are going to look at Boris Johnson, and see him as a sure fire ticket to get Jeremy Corbyn as PM.

 

I think Boris Johnson has shot his bolt, and even if he made a bid, he would at best be a stalking horse for someone else to get the job. Leadership challengers are never PM's in the UK. Its always the one hovering in the wings behind them, ready to step in after they deliver the killing blow. More Game of Thrones than House of Cards really.

 

Still, the punch and judy act will doubtless be very watchable.

Edited October 2, 2018 by Stuart Galbraith

[Panzermann]

More Game of Thrones than House of Cards really.

 

 

 

I had thought House of Cards was based on what is going on in and around parliament?

Edited October 2, 2018 by Panzermann

[Stuart Galbraith]

The original one was, the new one has been extensively rewritten for the American market.

 

If you remember the original one had Francis Urquhart convincing a stalking horse to stand up and unseat the PM. Then he convinces all the likely candidates to drop out, and jumps in as the candidate himself.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Cards_(UK_TV_series)

If you want a prime example of this happening in recent times, you can look at Michael Heseltine dethroning Margaret Thatcher, then being beaten in the leadership contest (because nobody likes someone disloyal) by John Major. Whom was just as Machiavellian himself, but successfully stood in the background when he did it.

 

Besides, despite the desperation in the hardliners to see Theresa May go hard Brexit, I dont believe they are quite so desperate to unseat her, because they know damn well a new leader is going to face an uphill challenge to appeal to the electorate in the next 4 years. Boris might be charismatic, but he has all the leadership potential of a sack of spuds, and they know it. Devious Davis maybe, but again, he is a man of no idea's. Its a simple case of in the Kingdom of the blind and all that.

 

As always of course, beware of Black Swan events.

Edited October 2, 2018 by Stuart Galbraith

[TonyE]

Stu, stu, stu.....you know very well that a certain well spoken and well mannered gentleman of exquisite upbringing representing North East Somerset is positioning himself in the shaddows....

[Stuart Galbraith]

Now I admire Lord Snooty, I mean Jacob Rees Mogg, because he is without doubt the very best 19th Century reenactment group I know of. As Prime Minister? Well lets just say he would probably have been out of date in 1908.

 

He is also Catholic. And whilst Britain is today a largely multicultural society, we have a distinct dearth of Catholic PM's for historical reasons. Even Tony Blair converted only after he left office.

 

I just got this pearl from his Wiki entry.

 

Same-sex marriage and abortion

Regarding same-sex marriage, Rees-Mogg has stated that he is opposed to it and "not proud" of it being legal,^[142] and that it has alienated traditional supporters of the party.^[143][144] In 2013, Rees-Mogg said that on the issue of same-sex marriage, he took his "whip from the hierarchy of the Roman Catholic Church rather than the [Conservative] Whip's Office".^[145] He later elaborated that in his view "marriage is a sacrament and the decision of what is a sacrament lies with the Church, not with Parliament."^[146]

 

So essentially, he wants to be independent of the EU because it issues directives, in his view, contrary to British sovereignty, but see's no problem with doing pretty much the same thing from the Vatican. Hmmm.

[Soren Ras]

The bizarre thing being that House of Cards starting airing on 18 Nov 1990, while the Conservative Party leadership election that ousted Thatcher happened 20-22 Nov 1990, in other words, at the same time.

 

I imagine Andrew Davies and Michael Dobbs must be been utterly amazed to see reality mimicking their tale so closely.

 

--

Soren

[Stuart Galbraith]

The first episode even had Urquhart (played by Ian Richardson) turns a photo of Margaret Thatcher face down on his desk with the comment 'All good things must come to an end'. Perhaps not such a surprising prediction as it looks now, after the Poll Tax the blood was already in the water. It just required someone to be first to put in the knife.

 

In similar vein, I was interested to read the other day that 2000AD even went so far as to predict a President Trump in a 2011 strip called 'The Day the Zombo Died'.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-38095143

[Panzermann]

The original one was, the new one has been extensively rewritten for the American market.

The murrican version was especially fluffed up with all the family drama to get episodes filled and make it more generally attractive. On youtube I found a coparison, that pointed this oput and compared US HoC to other current modern TV series. Htey all do it, that is some evil schemin, a bit of heart drama for the ladies, a bit of bungabunga. Like Game of Thrones, Like any of the new recipe series realls.

 

 

 

 

But back to real life. I think the writing was on the wall for Thatcher after a decade of hard fights.

 

 

Now I admire Lord Snooty, I mean Jacob Rees Mogg, because he is without doubt the very best 19th Century reenactment group I know of. As Prime Minister? Well lets just say he would probably have been out of date in 1908.

 

He is also Catholic. And whilst Britain is today a largely multicultural society, we have a distinct dearth of Catholic PM's for historical reasons. Even Tony Blair converted only after he left office.

 

I just got this pearl from his Wiki entry.

 

Same-sex marriage and abortion

Regarding same-sex marriage, Rees-Mogg has stated that he is opposed to it and "not proud" of it being legal,^%5B142%5D and that it has alienated traditional supporters of the party.^{%5B143%5D%5B144%5D} In 2013, Rees-Mogg said that on the issue of same-sex marriage, he took his "whip from the hierarchy of the Roman Catholic Church rather than the %5BConservative%5D Whip's Office".^%5B145%5D He later elaborated that in his view "marriage is a sacrament and the decision of what is a sacrament lies with the Church, not with Parliament."^%5B146%5D

 

So essentially, he wants to be independent of the EU because it issues directives, in his view, contrary to British sovereignty, but see's no problem with doing pretty much the same thing from the Vatican. Hmmm.

He is a papist. They roll that way. They want it that way. Otherwise they won't be catholics.

Edited October 2, 2018 by Panzermann

[TonyE]

After John the lesser, the Celestial Navigator, Cyclops Brown, Dave the Snout and Maggie May, it is time for an aristocratic papist.....there might very well be a minor interegnum which involves Homo Goveiticus, Double Davis or the Fat Buddha, but the Time of Mogg will soon be upon us......

[rmgill]

I dont believe you do Ryan. We arguably didnt under the EEC.

So Parliament sets all laws and policies that affect British voters or does Strasborg and Brussels do so as well? Who votes for the folks there?

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

I dont believe you do Ryan. We arguably didnt under the EEC.

So Parliament sets all laws and policies that affect British voters or does Strasborg and Brussels do so as well? Who votes for the folks there?

 

 

We we all vote for MEP's, whom then go to the European parliament and vote on such things. The major parties in the UK usually had a tranche of candidates they put up to vote for their policies in Europe. So no, we are not devoid of influence on Europe.

 

Where it gets confusing is in the appointment of the European Commission President, which appears to be so arcane and confusing, I cant even fully understand it even after having made a special effort to look it up on Wikipedia.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_European_Commission

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Council

 

We appear, on a Prime Ministerial level, to have some input into what President we get, though Cameron came badly unstuck when he lobbied against him, displaying its usual lack of ability in making allies. But the ordinary Joe Pleb does not, directly, which is perhaps part of the reason for the disengagement on our part.

 

It seems to me, appointing an EU President is kinda like electing a pope. If you dont have friends, or support the wrong one, you're fucked.

[rmgill]

We we all vote for MEP's, whom then go to the European parliament and vote on such things.

Have you listened to any of them talk about how they can vote on things but not vote against things? Or how they those things can be voted on again and again until they pass in the way the technocrats (who aren't elected) want?

Edited October 3, 2018 by rmgill

[Stuart Galbraith]

From what ive seen of it (and Britain traditionally had very lower coverage of the EU) it seems to function pretty much like any Parliament. Whatever you say about Farage, that he can stand up and pretty much accuse them all of being a Neo Soviet Union, suggests that if nothing else they will give any case an airing, no matter how unpopular.

 

[BansheeOne]

Where it gets confusing is in the appointment of the European Commission President, which appears to be so arcane and confusing, I cant even fully understand it even after having made a special effort to look it up on Wikipedia.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_European_Commission

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Council

 

We appear, on a Prime Ministerial level, to have some input into what President we get, though Cameron came badly unstuck when he lobbied against him, displaying its usual lack of ability in making allies. But the ordinary Joe Pleb does not, directly, which is perhaps part of the reason for the disengagement on our part.

 

It seems to me, appointing an EU President is kinda like electing a pope. If you dont have friends, or support the wrong one, you're fucked.

 

It used to be the Commission President was decided upon after each European election by the heads of government assembled in the European Council (which in the EU scheme of things can be roughly compared to the original US Senate when senators were appointed by state governors, or the German Bundesrat which works on a similar principle), who haggled over distribution of commission posts with every member nation getting one; the commission was then confirmed by the European Parliament (which works as a lower house of parliament in this system).

 

The Lisbon Treaty mandated that results of the European elections should be taken into greater account in filling the position. Then-EP Speaker Martin Schulz campaigned for each caucus in Parliament to nominate a top candidate to run for the post in the 2014 elections, typical for parliamentary systems, and did so for the European Socialists. Most other groups except the British-dominated European Conservatives and Reformists (Tories) and Europe of Freedom and Democracy (UKIP) followed suit.

 

Jean-Claude Juncker internally prevailed against current Brexit chief negotiator Michel Barnier of France at the Dublin convention of the European People's Party, the caucus of the christian democratic parties in the EP. In the general election, the EPP then came out ahead of the Socialists. The European Council was actually like "nice show with those top candidates, but we'll still nominate our own choice for Commission President from the EPP"; Parliament then was like "fuck you, we're not going to confirm a choice disregarding our effort". Such pressure to honor the commitment to more democratic process in the EU established the precedent of the Council going with Juncker in the end.

 

Procedure is for Parliament to elect the Commission President and confirm the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (who has a seat in the Commission but is still a Council pick since the Common Foreign and Security Policy remains in the inter-gouvernemental realm of the EU) first. The Council then haggles over the rest of the Commission as before, with "input" from the Commission President. Nominees undergo hearings before Parliament, which will subsequently vote to confirm the Commission en bloc; if they don't want a certain Commisioner, they have to reject the whole team which then needs to be reshuffled.

 

Similarly, only the whole Commission can be dissolved by a vote of no confidence, though either Parliament or the Council can instigate removal of an individual Commissioner by the European Court of Justice over a breach of obligations. At any rate, people going on about "unelected Eurocrats" are a little behind the times; democratic legitimacy of the Commission after Lisbon is not too different from those of cabinets in most parliamentary systems. Sure there are non-elected bureaucrats in the EU, but then there are in any administration.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Thanks for the clarification Banshee.

 

I remember reading of this at the time, which may have had some impact on what followed.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/27/david-cameron-loses-jean-claude-juncker-vote-eu

[Stuart Galbraith]

Move over Germany. Your chancellor cant jive.

 

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/theresa-may-dancing_uk_5bb4a066e4b01470d04d17b8

 

It is actually a good speech. I noticed they painted the emblem on the wall rather than chance it falling off again though...

[Panzermann]

When

 

 

 

When May is rocking the stage there is certainly the risk of her burning down the house.

 

 

more appropiate song.

 

 

 

 

---

 

 

 

 

 

Brexit needs more cowbell buzzword:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-hammond-border/blockchain-may-resolve-irish-border-brexit-problem-hammond-idUSKCN1MB3FM

A solution to providing frictionless trade across the Irish border after Britain leaves the European Union might be found using technology such as Blockchain, finance minister Phillip Hammond said on Monday.

"There is technology becoming available (…) I don't claim to be an expert on it but the most obvious technology is blockchain," Hammond said when asked about how the government could achieve smooth trade after Brexit.

 

 

what? No machine-learning or cloud? big data mining? distributed real-time java? and where is the flying cars we have been promised?

Edited October 3, 2018 by Panzermann

[Stuart Galbraith]

Well we DID invent the World Wide Web and Information Technology. Oh ye of little faith.

[Panzermann]

Well we DID invent the World Wide Web and Information Technology. Oh ye of little faith.

 

But you have buzzword gap!

[Stuart Galbraith]

Yeah, well, our PM can jive, and your Chancellor cant, so yah boo sucks.

 

 

Somehow you just know Jacob Rees Mogg cant dance.