Brexit

[BillB]

 

the biggest fear the EU leadership has is that other may be encouraged to leave as well. Of course they want to make an example of the UK.

 

But still the UK is in the weaker postion, being the smaller in the negotiations.

Shush, there are still those who believe in Empire and that the natives must obey.

That they can not comprehend that the 15% of the whole can not tell the 85% what do to is mind boggling.

If what the EU is afraid is the lost funds then you would have seen them begging the UK for the last 15 months.

 

Bless. One of the saddest things about the EU is the way it has deluded the minnows like half of Cyprus and Malta that their opinion really amounts to anything more than background noise in the scheme of things. I think the Greeks and Italians likely have a bit different view about where the Empire resides and who gets to tell who what to do.

 

BillB

[Leo Niehorster]

 

Pity you lower yourself to personal attacks.

And, I am Dutch.

[BillB]

 

 

Pity you lower yourself to personal attacks.

And, I am Dutch.

 

Apologies, from your location I assumed you were German, although being Dutch gives you less mileage for being a Europhile I should have thought. And no personal attack, just responding in the same tone as stuff in the thread. Heat & kitchen and all that.

 

BillB

[Chris Werb]

Bill, this is just a personal perspective on BREXIT.

 

In 1997 I moved to Belgium to be with my then girlfriend, who was Dutch. We were both unskilled, but could move there easily as her parents had done many years previously with their inland ship. I did a simple cleaning job there until I could find something better, which I soon did. I ended up in charge of the contracts on an account with EDS on what would be about £38.5k a year now even without allowing for inflation. I got that job, and others, because I was willing to do things Belgians were not willing to do. I paid a lot of tax to the Belgian government.

 

Whilst I was doing this, my wife, who I had enabled to give up cleaning, was building up her own skills in web design whilst continuing to make works of art for rich Americans and to teach art in Holland. She brought money into the EU and into Belgium and also paid her taxes on it.

 

Five years on, we both moved to a remote part of the UK, where she built up a very successful web design business that essentially dominates the market for web services in the county as well as bringing in money from customers in Belgium, France and Holland.

 

All of the above was only possible because of the free movement of people enabled by the EU.

 

The county in which I live has had a lot of EU money brought in to it for infrastructure and the European Marine Energy Test Centre is based here, but for how long is anyone's guess. We have a thriving fishing industry that sells primarily to the EU and relies on getting their catch into those countries quickly without border impediments. Our tourist and salmon processing industries are largely dependent on EU nationals.

 

Most of all though the NHS that I work for and our business are both very dependent on economic stability. We have no other significant income. Anything that threatens to throw a spanner in the works could really screw us and now even my wife's entitlement to remain in the UK is in doubt. We (or in this case I) may be getting control back in ways that give a warm fuzzy feeling, but mostly really make no difference to the average person. Being in a job, having money in your pocket, being able to source employees and skills as needed and to export perishable good in a timely fashion - those things mean a lot more to me.

 

In my circle of friends and acquaintances, when I speak to people who voted for BREXIT, I find they tend to be older people living on pensions or otherwise relatively secure incomes. They share a wish to return to a past where we made our decisions independently and where things were better, albeit seen through rose tinted glasses. The ironic thing is most of them won't be around very much longer and the younger people who tended to vote against BREXIT will have to live with their decisions for a good portion of their adult lives, and perhaps forever.

[Soren Ras]

I have not seen anything that fundamentally alters the view I had when The Brexit vote took place. Brexit will take a real and substantial economic tolk on lots of people in the UK. There is no papering that over. However, and this is significant, it is by no means certain that it would have been better for Britain to Remain, as a whole. This I say because the EU has not done *anything* to fix its basic structural defects. And, as has been said, if something cant go on, it wont.

 

 

Soren

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

I know the EU says one thing and does another, but you would think they would be interested in that if only to keep German manufacturers in beer.

 

The fact that this utterly reality-divorced tosh is still seriously believed two years later says all about the degree of delusion in the British debate.

 

 

 

 

If the EU doesnt exist to enfranchise the people that actually live in it, then what the hell is the point of it?

 

No, im not divorced from reality. But as some whom wanted to stay in, the EU has successfully disillusioned me from wanting to.

Edited September 23, 2018 by Stuart Galbraith

[Stuart Galbraith]

I have not seen anything that fundamentally alters the view I had when The Brexit vote took place. Brexit will take a real and substantial economic tolk on lots of people in the UK. There is no papering that over. However, and this is significant, it is by no means certain that it would have been better for Britain to Remain, as a whole. This I say because the EU has not done *anything* to fix its basic structural defects. And, as has been said, if something cant go on, it wont.

 

 

Soren

 

10 Years from now, the EU is going to prevail on the Eastern Europeans, whom will be approaching the level of income that Western Europe is now getting, to take more asylum seekers, and disgruntlement over immigration will reach the same level it has with us, and has in France. And then you are going to see some serious fur flying.

 

And still they wont listen.

[Stuart Galbraith]

the biggest fear the EU leadership has is that other may be encouraged to leave as well. Of course they want to make an example of the UK.

 

But still the UK is in the weaker postion, being the smaller in the negotiations.

 

There is a weakness in the EU argument, and that is the Italians, whom are not exactly fully paid up Europhiles these days, export a LOT of produce to the UK. Food, wine, grapes, what have you. They have expressed severe displeasure at not having access to the UK. A lot of supermarkets here get much of our food produce, particularly out of season produce, from the southern European nations.

 

There is a danger, how real I dont know, that if these countries cannot export their produce, they are going to reflect on whether its appropriate to remain inside the EU, if their main export market are outside it. And there is by that, a danger of the whole market coming unzipped, when they begin to realise the former prime market next door is now outside the EU. So rather than discouraging the others, they may end up encouraging the unzipping of it.

 

I dont know how realistic that is. I dont suppose the EU has even considered it. They are too busy writing up smarmy tweets I guess.

[BillB]

 

 

I know the EU says one thing and does another, but you would think they would be interested in that if only to keep German manufacturers in beer.

 

The fact that this utterly reality-divorced tosh is still seriously believed two years later says all about the degree of delusion in the British debate.

 

 

 

 

If the EU doesnt exist to enfranchise the people that actually live in it, then what the hell is the point of it?

 

The point of it is to create a United States of Europe Stuart, which is intended to prevent future conflict between European nation states by breaking those nation states up into regions and decentralising them. Enfranchisement doesn't come into it, because the people are just there to make the thing work, not give them any effective say in anything. Hence all the concentration of freedom of movement, which would allow Brussels to direct labour to where and when it is required. In essence they've been playing a grand game of Civilisation by stealth so as not to frighten the horses and they've now reached the point where the framework of where it is going is clear and stealth no longer works.

 

BillB

[Ssnake]

HOW would "Brussels" "direct labor"?

[Stuart Galbraith]

Bill, there was a point I would have disagreed with you. But the utterly clueless way the EU has handled the Northern Ireland issue (which they pretty clearly see as part of Ireland, not the United Kingdom) has shaken me. Its like they have learned absolutely nothing from the Balkans or Ukraine.

 

I still believe in free trade. I still believe a common European trade area is a good idea. The rest of it is a lot of ideological crap that wants throwing on a bonfire.

 

And no, thats not an invitation to send me UKIP leaflets.

[Panzermann]

 

 

I know the EU says one thing and does another, but you would think they would be interested in that if only to keep German manufacturers in beer.

The fact that this utterly reality-divorced tosh is still seriously believed two years later says all about the degree of delusion in the British debate.

 

 

 

If the EU doesnt exist to enfranchise the people that actually live in it, then what the hell is the point of it?

 

 

Do you really have to ask?

 

When it was the EWG (EEC in english) back in the day, the joke was "Einer Wird Gewinnen" one will win in english. At the moment GErmany is sucking many of the smaller members dry like a vampire and at the same time wants to push the results of their FUBAR immigration politics on the other members. It is going to implode, because this situation is not long term stable as Sören Ras points out. With the current structure it is going to go boom. Brexit is the first big writing on the wall. Notwithstanding that I have to thank my politics teacher in school, who made us work out all the structural defects and deficiencies of democracy, checks&balances etc. in the EU. And taht was like 25 years ago. Goes to show how much inertia such things have and keep moving.

 

No, im not divorced from reality. But as some whom wanted to stay in, the EU has successfully disillusioned me from wanting to.

 

How your political class has handled this. Cameron starting this rubbish bin fire unnecessarily in the first place. How they voted recently happily for the filters showed me that you have the same problem as the rest of Europe. bad politicians making bad decisons. That is, bad decisions for the grand majority of people.

 

Leaving is not going to change your political establishment. Well at least they cannot hide behind the brussels excuse anymore.

[BillB]

Bill, there was a point I would have disagreed with you. But the utterly clueless way the EU has handled the Northern Ireland issue (which they pretty clearly see as part of Ireland, not the United Kingdom) has shaken me. Its like they have learned absolutely nothing from the Balkans or Ukraine.

 

I still believe in free trade. I still believe a common European trade area is a good idea. The rest of it is a lot of ideological crap that wants throwing on a bonfire.

 

And no, thats not an invitation to send me UKIP leaflets.

No UKIP here mate, bunch of swivel eyed loons. Altho they do get credit for scaring the Establishment into finally giving us an oft-promised Referendum though, but only because the Establishment never dreamed that the majority of the population would vote no what with all the Project Fear fibs.

 

BillB

[seahawk]

Freedom comes with a priice but just like back in 1940 the Uk will prevail and destroy the enemy on the continent. Brexit was a great choice, now bring it home and hopefully inspire others.

[Chris Werb]

Freedom comes with a priice but just like back in 1940 the Uk will prevail and destroy the enemy on the continent. Brexit was a great choice, now bring it home and hopefully inspire others.

 

Bad analogy. The EU are not the enemy and we are not going to destroy them. Furthermore, we didn't prevail and destroy the enemy on the continent in 1940 though, did we? We got creamed. It took five years, lots of lives and gold and just a little help from America, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, India, Russia and Brazil etc. to prevail. Rationing didn't end until 1954.

 

As to freedom, OK Seahawk, which EU law can I look forward to not having to obey after BREXIT?

[Mistral]

What I dont understand is why the British wish to export their goods to the EU, why dont they export them to the rest of the world? Its a much bigger market. Surely a no deal will save them the cash they have to pay for a deal and they could export to their hearts desire.

 

Maybe if you can anwer that you will realise what will happen come March.

[Ssnake]

But the utterly clueless way the EU has handled the Northern Ireland issue ... has shaken me.

 

I have yet to hear an intelligent and practically feasible suggestion from the British side how you want to keep an open border in NI while at the same time no longer being part of the common market. Either you have customs controls to separate from the common market, in which case you can't have a completely open border. Or you don't, in which case at least NI needs to remain part of the common market's tariff regulations.

Someone should have thought about that question first before calling a referendum. Let's face it, you have been deceived by the Brexit campaigners. By their own admission they heaped lies on top of more lies. There was no plan then, there is no plan now. It's one giant clusterfark.

[toysoldier]

Only open warfare can fix Europe now.

[Stuart Galbraith]

What I dont understand is why the British wish to export their goods to the EU, why dont they export them to the rest of the world? Its a much bigger market. Surely a no deal will save them the cash they have to pay for a deal and they could export to their hearts desire.

 

Maybe if you can anwer that you will realise what will happen come March.

 

Established markets and suppliers. You dont turn those off overnight without expecting absolute chaos. And its not an unreasonable demand for at least a few years grace whilst we restructure. We didnt enter the EEC overnight either.

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

But the utterly clueless way the EU has handled the Northern Ireland issue ... has shaken me.

 

I have yet to hear an intelligent and practically feasible suggestion from the British side how you want to keep an open border in NI while at the same time no longer being part of the common market. Either you have customs controls to separate from the common market, in which case you can't have a completely open border. Or you don't, in which case at least NI needs to remain part of the common market's tariff regulations.

Someone should have thought about that question first before calling a referendum. Let's face it, you have been deceived by the Brexit campaigners. By their own admission they heaped lies on top of more lies. There was no plan then, there is no plan now. It's one giant clusterfark.

 

 

Lets be fair here, I have absolutely NO respect for the likes of Johnson and Davis (and increasingly little for Farage either) because you are right, they could and should have addressed this issue. No argument. But on the other side of the coin, neither David Cameron, the EU, Ireland or indeed anyone raised it either. It suddenly materialized as an issue when it was realized it was a useful stick to beat the UK with. Basically the EU is playing fast and loose with the Irish peace accords just so they can try and weedle out a few more concessions from Britain. Which is wholly irresponsible and frankly, clueless.

 

I dont see why its an issue. As long ago as 1940 we had people from Belfast walking across the border to the south to escape the bombing. So as far as population movement, you give everyone in Northern Ireland a common Irish passport as well as a British one (which they can do anyway as far as I can tell) and there is no problem with population movement in either direction as long as they are residents of the Irish mainland. As far as goods, neither side actually WANT a hard border. Its only the spectre of a lack of a trade deal creating one, so if we have a trade deal, no problem.

 

Get Britain and Ireland to sign a bilateral trade deal for common trade with Northern Ireland, and there would be technical means to ensure you wouldn't have trade with the EU going via Northern Ireland. And TBH, I think this problem is overrated anyway. You have a simple problem of capacity that anyone that has looked at Holyhead and Stranraer realise. The idea this is somehow going to be a black market superhighway is crazy.

 

 

I was looking the other day at a tech programme that showed rail freight scanners in Estonia tracking goods going through the rail border into Russia. Didnt even need to stop, and they could track where the freight was going to, and if they had contraband that wasnt identified. Could ring up Russia to let them know to take action (or more likely not) without even having to stop the train. Technically the means of tracking freight exist. Yet the EU can do it on the Estonia/Russia border, but not the UK/Irish one. What gives?

Edited September 24, 2018 by Stuart Galbraith

[Stuart Galbraith]

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-06/01/c_137222780.htm

 

So we can have systems to track freight all the way from sodding China to the EU, but not from Milton Keynes to Dublin? Do you see how absurd the EU's arguments are?

[toysoldier]

Its the irish, what they gonna smugle? If its booze they'll drink it, if its not they aren't interested.

[BansheeOne]

This I say because the EU has not done *anything* to fix its basic structural defects. And, as has been said, if something cant go on, it wont.

 

Actually, a lot was done with the Lisbon Treaty, particularly regarding the democratic deficit; the EU Parliament got more power, and for all the talk of unelected Eurocrats, Jean-Claude Juncker - whatever you think of him personally - is the first president of the Commission who ran as an official top candidate in European elections and got the office despite the heads of member governments trying to chose their agreed-upon man like in the old times. But admittedly, structural change is slow exactly due to the way the EU is set up, with each member given a strong position to block decisions running counter to its interests; consensus still being the default mode despite the introduction and increasing use of qualified majority votes in the intra-governmental pillar of the Union.

 

If the EU doesnt exist to enfranchise the people that actually live in it, then what the hell is the point of it?

 

That's indeed why it exists, and, as I've pointed out before, it's the only motivation why it acts the way it does on Brexit. Like any voluntary association, it is safeguarding the interests of its members who will remain, not the one who will not be a member soon. It is under no pressure to give the UK anything it wants, because the latter will be no contributor and have no say in it after it's gone. So all the cries of "unfairness", "bullying", "not seeing our point", "making an example of us" etc. are besides the point, and the threats of "if you keep pushing us, you'll make things even more difficult" are hollow; this is what happens when a bigger and a smaller party are fighting over something the latter wants from the former.

 

The delusion is in assuming that the UK has something the EU really needs to negotiate over. Sure, Europe as a whole will be weakened in political and economic power after Brexit, too, and everybody's share to pay of the EU budget will rise by the percentage of the current British share, a little over twelve percent. But I'm flabbergasted that 27 months on, variations of "the Germans will never allow the EU to let us go without a deal, because cars" are still stuck in people's minds. I said that was not gonna happen then, and nothing has changed except the mounting evidence that it isn't. That Theresa May failed in her latest attempt to deal directly with the heads of governments rather than the Commission - which the EU said from the start how it would be done, but was promptly decried as "gangster behavior" by British yellow press - is only the most recent case in point.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Its the irish, what they gonna smugle? If its booze they'll drink it, if its not they aren't interested.

 

Well Tommy Guns maybe. But as the American point out, we are oppressed and degunned, so no problem there.

 

I can remember that during the troubles we had Operation Motorman, where we bulldozed roads to ensure that most cards could go down routes, so we could search them. It would be a relatively easy to job to do the same thing again and put in electronic checkpoints. I mean yes, it wouldnt be popular, but if its that or a hard border, I think even the Irish would have to see the advantages.

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

This I say because the EU has not done *anything* to fix its basic structural defects. And, as has been said, if something cant go on, it wont.

 

Actually, a lot was done with the Lisbon Treaty, particularly regarding the democratic deficit; the EU Parliament got more power, and for all the talk of unelected Eurocrats, Jean-Claude Juncker - whatever you think of him personally - is the first president of the Commission who ran as an official top candidate in European elections and got the office despite the heads of member governments trying to chose their agreed-upon man like in the old times. But admittedly, structural change is slow exactly due to the way the EU is set up, with each member given a strong position to block decisions running counter to its interests; consensus still being the default mode despite the introduction and increasing use of qualified majority votes in the intra-governmental pillar of the Union.

 

If the EU doesnt exist to enfranchise the people that actually live in it, then what the hell is the point of it?

 

That's indeed why it exists, and, as I've pointed out before, it's the only motivation why it acts the way it does on Brexit. Like any voluntary association, it is safeguarding the interests of its members who will remain, not the one who will not be a member soon. It is under no pressure to give the UK anything it wants, because the latter will be no contributor and have no say in it after it's gone. So all the cries of "unfairness", "bullying", "not seeing our point", "making an example of us" etc. are besides the point, and the threats of "if you keep pushing us, you'll make things even more difficult" are hollow; this is what happens when a bigger and a smaller party are fighting over something the latter wants from the former.

 

The delusion is in assuming that the UK has something the EU really needs to negotiate over. Sure, Europe as a whole will be weakened in political and economic power after Brexit, too, and everybody's share to pay of the EU budget will rise by the percentage of the current British share, a little over twelve percent. But I'm flabbergasted that 27 months on, variations of "the Germans will never allow the EU to let us go without a deal, because cars" are still stuck in people's minds. I said that was not gonna happen then, and nothing has changed except the mounting evidence that it isn't. That Theresa May failed in her latest attempt to deal directly with the heads of governments rather than the Commission - which the EU said from the start how it would be done, but was promptly decried as "gangster behavior" by British yellow press - is only the most recent case in point.

 

Maybe you shouldnt cite the British tabloids as being evidence of Public opinion. Its like looking at the National Enquirer for insight into the American political situation.

 

Im not thinking the Germans have the power to bully the EU. Im reflecting on the fact that if the EU doesnt actually enfranchise German trade (or indeed anyones trade) then its a problem and not a solution. And in time if it keeps getting in the way of free trade (as it seems to want to here) then people are going to ask what the point of it is.