Brexit

[Stuart Galbraith]

Here is an example. Today I heard a Tory Brexiter (one of the more intelligent ones judging by his well considered arguments in fairness to the man) making the case for Brexit, because it would reduce immigration. He asserted immigration is out of control, which is is, that housing production will have to go up, which it wont because nobody can afford to build, and the country cant sustain masses entering the country competing for low paid jobs. And he is right.

 

But there is a problem. Because I seem to recall that quite a lot of fruit pickers from Poland and other Eastern European countries come here, much in the same way that the London East end used to go on holiday and pick hops. Particularly prevalent in the Evesham area I gather. The logic being its low paid work, they can make a living on it because they send the money home, and we get people who will work for a wage nobody can exist on here, and remain solvent. When you see quite how much strawberries are selling for at Wimbledon, you begin to see someone is still making a large mark up, but its certainly not the farmers.

 

So you get those low paid jobs back. People wont do them because they cant exist on pay below the living wage, so they wont do the job. The farmers get no workers, go bankrupt, and we end up importing strawberries from the continent, probably as several times the price because we no longer have a trade agreement with them. And the rural economy atrophies yet further. Yay Brexit.

 

So one can say, the brexiters have a point. The problem is if you trace at least some of their arguments to the logical conclusion, its hard to see how anyone, even some of the exceptionally well paid in this country, are really going to benefit. Brexit is an emotional decision. Its not about financial logic, which is why nobody in brexit or brexin camps seems to be making any logical arguments. Its pretty much stay in, and it gets bad, get out and it gets worse.

[sunday]

Well, the Torygraph has some amusing cartoons on the matter. Beginning here.

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

Like that one.

[Briganza]

Here is an example. Today I heard a Tory Brexiter (one of the more intelligent ones judging by his well considered arguments in fairness to the man) making the case for Brexit, because it would reduce immigration. He asserted immigration is out of control, which is is, that housing production will have to go up, which it wont because nobody can afford to build, and the country cant sustain masses entering the country competing for low paid jobs. And he is right.

 

But there is a problem. Because I seem to recall that quite a lot of fruit pickers from Poland and other Eastern European countries come here, much in the same way that the London East end used to go on holiday and pick hops. Particularly prevalent in the Evesham area I gather. The logic being its low paid work, they can make a living on it because they send the money home, and we get people who will work for a wage nobody can exist on here, and remain solvent. When you see quite how much strawberries are selling for at Wimbledon, you begin to see someone is still making a large mark up, but its certainly not the farmers.

 

So you get those low paid jobs back. People wont do them because they cant exist on pay below the living wage, so they wont do the job. The farmers get no workers, go bankrupt, and we end up importing strawberries from the continent, probably as several times the price because we no longer have a trade agreement with them. And the rural economy atrophies yet further. Yay Brexit.

 

So one can say, the brexiters have a point. The problem is if you trace at least some of their arguments to the logical conclusion, its hard to see how anyone, even some of the exceptionally well paid in this country, are really going to benefit. Brexit is an emotional decision. Its not about financial logic, which is why nobody in brexit or brexin camps seems to be making any logical arguments. Its pretty much stay in, and it gets bad, get out and it gets worse.

Back in the 80s when I lived in Tidworth there was a report on the local radio about a strawberries farmer who brought in seasonal workers from Portugal. He had built a large two story dormitory on his farm (with planning permission) to house them. If he had not he would have had no one to pick his crop. At the time I had thought about doing the early morning pick your own and train up to London to sell them but it seemed like too much hard work.

It is not just fruit and veg that will be hit, our local chicken factory will be un manned (womaned) if they all go.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Yep, I can quite believe it. Cheap foreign labour has been underpinning the rural economy for years. In actual fact, we beat the rush. We had a Polish worker on the farm up to the 1990s. He arrived in 1945 though.

 

They have been using a lot of them up in the Evesham vale, you can probably pick out the bit poly tunnels on google for use for fruit growing and also there are a lot of hops farms up near Hereford. Apparently its caused some chaos on the North Cotswold railway, the signalers were having trouble with people picking up the phone to use farm crossings, and not be able to speak a word of English to understand 'no dont cross, there is a train coming'. There has been a few near misses apparently.

 

See, the problem I have with the assessment is this, that we should not have jobs taken up by immigrants. Thats fine, as far as it goes. The argument was, these low paid jobs should be done by British workers. But of course they cant live on those kind of wages. And if they did (which would mean the cost of living would have to come down massively and nobody can afford to buy houses in the west country as it is) its kind of a sad state of affairs when we are saying we should be retaining low paid poorly skilled jobs for our own people. Wasnt the idea that we were supposed to divest ourselves of old fashioned , low skilled jobs and prepare our workforce for the white heat of technology, highly skilled, highly paid, highly motivated? Is that really the best we can offer people today?

 

So instead we want to cadge jobs back form poorly paid Eastern Europeans whom, within a generation or so, wont be coming here anyway because their economy will have matched or exceeded ours. Doesnt seem like much of a plan to me. I mean yes, I see the appeal, British jobs for British workers. Great. The prerequisite should be that you can actually live on those jobs, and short of the value of the pound going through the floor, I see no way that it can happen.

 

Personally, Ive nothing against low skilled, poorly paid workers coming here. If they want the work, good luck to them. But if its highly skilled, we have absolutely no excuse not for training our own people for that. Thats a problem that seems to be continually ignored.

Edited May 26, 2016 by Stuart Galbraith

[sunday]

Also we just sent another migrant worker to London. Former student of mine, going to manage something .com or else in a executive position.

Edited May 26, 2016 by sunday

[DB]

"They [british Workers] can't live on those wages" is the biggest pile of bollocks statement made by any of the anti-immigrant lot. What? Immigrants are made differently, somehow? They need fewer calories? No clothes?

 

No, they have inflated expectations as to what their labour is worth. And this is why they should be provided with two baked potatoes a day, sackcloth and a needle and thread and nothing more, unless they get of their sorry arses and get one of those jobs that "these immigrants are all stealing."

 

Bah, humbug.

[Simon Tan]

Ze French methode.

[Ivanhoe]

"They [british Workers] can't live on those wages" is the biggest pile of bollocks statement made by any of the anti-immigrant lot. What? Immigrants are made differently, somehow? They need fewer calories? No clothes?

 

No, they have inflated expectations as to what their labour is worth. And this is why they should be provided with two baked potatoes a day, sackcloth and a needle and thread and nothing more, unless they get of their sorry arses and get one of those jobs that "these immigrants are all stealing."

 

Bah, humbug.

 

Same thing goes on here. Illegals here are often paid cash, no minimum wage, no taxes, vehicles not maintained to pass state inspections, free health care at the local hospital, etc. And live 4-8 to an apt. American citizens trying to do that will end up in jail, but somehow its OK for an illegal.

 

And public assistance pays better than minimum wage x 40 hrs a week.

[Simon Tan]

Undocumented people are simply not there.

[Stuart Galbraith]

"They [british Workers] can't live on those wages" is the biggest pile of bollocks statement made by any of the anti-immigrant lot. What? Immigrants are made differently, somehow? They need fewer calories? No clothes?

 

No, they have inflated expectations as to what their labour is worth. And this is why they should be provided with two baked potatoes a day, sackcloth and a needle and thread and nothing more, unless they get of their sorry arses and get one of those jobs that "these immigrants are all stealing."

 

Bah, humbug.

 

Try buying a house here on money you make out of strawberry picking. Then tell me where I can find another job out here in the styx past Wantage thats well paid enough to do so. See my point?

 

And that is really the problem. You have a declining farming industry, the traditional employer, based every more on technology (as it has been since the 1850s actually) and well paid jobs that actually sustained the housing industry out here are disappearing. My local town had 3 major employers 30 years ago. Now it knocked them all down turning the site into an old peoples home. Go right across the Cotswolds even to the outskirts of Bristol, you will see the same story.

 

In short, if strawberry picking and fruit picking are the way forward for the rural economy, I may as well go and build myself a wattle and daub roundhouse because thats about all I can afford on what I would make. Sure, you can live on low skill, low wages like that, if you are willing to condemn yourself to live with your parents into your 40s or live in a council house. If you can find one.

A worker from Eastern Europe by contrast can live on those wages, and send money back to Eastern Europe where its going to be worth a lot more in property than it is here. They also from documentaries ive seen live crammed in dormitories or caravans, again, the cost of living is much lower if you dont intend to spend a winter here.

I dont condemn them for that, Im just saying you cannot live on those wages AND buy a house. And that is the central reason why people are leaving the west country in droves and its becoming increasingly an out of town preserve for rich Londoners. Drive around Chipping Campden and will see what I mean.

 

If someone wants to devalue the pound, hey you know what, I could see myself picking strawberries and joining the Chipping Campden set on the proceeds. But do you see anyone doing anything to disadvantage the City of London? Because that's what it would take.

 

 

Undocumented people are simply not there.

That too. One only has to recall the Cockle Pickers of Morecombe that died in the bad accident, most of them were Chinese whom were here illegally. The irony is they are needed to keep rural economies going. I noted that some years ago (I forget where I noted it) that the Government was including the proceeds of crime in the GDP, which just goes to show that just because something is immoral or illegal, it doesnt actually mean its bad for the economy. Americans have discovered this with their Mexicans.

 

 

 

Was watching another local story the other day, apparently Bristol is having to outsource its ambulance service to private contractors because of a shortage of crew for them. So the Ambulance firm they are employing people from from the Czech Republic because they have a similar level of training to our crew. Its belatedly occurring that if we brexit, they wont be able to come over to work as easily, ergo the ambulance firm that is being used to prop up our ambulance service will run out of drivers, and the whole system will start to fall to bits. At which point presumably you will either be using Army Ambulances, or have to stump up a lot more in training to get more of our people recruited for the job, which is going to cost a lot more.

Edited May 27, 2016 by Stuart Galbraith

[Adam_S]

There's a similar thing over here in regional Queensland except the migrant labour is made up of backpackers on 1 or 2 year working holiday visas. They pick ginger and mangoes and do all the other shitty jobs that the local bogans can't be bothered to do.

[swerve]

I remember when the cleaners in the office building I worked in were locals, mostly housewives supplementing the family income by working part-time, but also school leavers doing it while they looked for something better. Then my employers stopped hiring its own cleaners & outsourced the work to a cleaning firm, which got rid of all the locals. No EU immigrants - all African men. Then they were arrested by immigration officers for being in the country illegally (IIRC some were on fake student visas - there's an industry supplying them via 'colleges' that do just enough teaching to be able to pretend to be educational institutions), in a big raid - I remember looking out of the window & seeing immigration officers chasing cleaners around the car park - & we got a new cleaning firm, employing mostly E. Europeans. The supervisor was Polish, & had a degree (I forgot in what). A Polish colleague of mine (a programmer) spent some time chatting her up: she was young & good-looking.

 

As I understand it, the former part-timers who could fit in the work with child care struggled to find replacement jobs, so their family incomes mostly dropped. Their replacements were bused in instead of being able to walk to work - I don't know where from. The Africans did a lousy job. The E. Europeans cleaned well.

 

I keep encountering non-EU immigrants doing low-skilled, low-paid jobs. Many of them I suspect are here illegally, like those African cleaners, & I wonder how how many of the others got work permits. I was also surprised at how many of the E. European cleaners in our offices were non-EU, e.g. Albanian. Dunno how Brexit is supposed to affect them. And then there are all the skilled people form around the world making up for the dreadful lack of vocational training in this country nowadays. Brexit can't change that.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Thats just the thing, according to figures a few years back, the immigrants to the country stack up as about 40 percent from the EU, 60 percent from outside the EU. And of course the illegal migrants are going to be from outside the EU, not in it.

 

So basically, Brexit will mean we still have the same problem with illegal migrants, and we will have to up the legal migrants from outside the EU by 40 percent to make up the cheap labour we wont be getting from the EU, and not having assistance from the EU to deal with the illegal migrant problem, AND probably getting illegal migrants from the EU as well. At which point you think, none of this really is exceptionally thought out.

 

Look, there clearly is a migrant problem in this country. Even the Poles here are saying that its getting too much. The problem is that all Brexit is going to do is change the nature of the problem. The real problem is we are importing labour to do low skill, low wage jobs. And thats not going to change simply because we shut the door on the EU.

Edited May 27, 2016 by Stuart Galbraith

[Panzermann]

The French would have no problem letting loose all those migrants waiting in Calais in case of Brexit. One problem "solved" for France and the EU.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Yep. The French could give them all the shovel each, and lose the problem AND get another channel tunnel in one fell swoop.

 

I jest, but I dont disagree. The French will do that, there is no reason for them not to at that point. They can barely allow themselves letting our lorry drivers in without blocking the traffic every time they have a national dispute,even though we are an EU member. We might be allies, but friends I think is pushing it a bit.

Edited May 27, 2016 by Stuart Galbraith

[sunday]

I thought I was joking in the Gibraltar matter. Honestly.

 

http://news.sky.com/story/1702417/gibraltar-in-stark-warning-to-brexiteers

[Stuart Galbraith]

I thought I was joking in the Gibraltar matter. Honestly.

 

http://news.sky.com/story/1702417/gibraltar-in-stark-warning-to-brexiteers

 

So if we stay in, you try to intimidate us into giving it back, and if we leave, you intimidate us into giving it back. Thats pretty much the size of it innit?

[sunday]

Nope, only the strict observance of the treaty clauses. No land connection, especially. So let's see the Gib upper crust renouncing their estates in Spain.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Nope, only the strict observance of the treaty clauses. No land connection, especially. So let's see the Gib upper crust renouncing their estates in Spain.

All of your estates are belong to us! Didnt you see El Dorado?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cut73TYxbIs&list=PL2C4FnI7XGUWywnAolfLP58E9AYnyPpcE

[sunday]

Oh, private property should be respected. But when you have to commute to work via plane to London, then to Gib, life in the country looks less appealing.

Edited May 30, 2016 by sunday

[Ivanhoe]

 

I thought I was joking in the Gibraltar matter. Honestly.

 

http://news.sky.com/story/1702417/gibraltar-in-stark-warning-to-brexiteers

 

So if we stay in, you try to intimidate us into giving it back, and if we leave, you intimidate us into giving it back. Thats pretty much the size of it innit?

 

 

If they want the Rock so bad, use that as a negotiating chip. For example, "You can have Gibralter back, only after you take over Blackpool." If you're really good, work the deal so they only get Gib back after 10 years of running Blackpool at a profit (including all the dole payments , cost of council housing, and other public spending).

[sunday]

(...)

 

If they want the Rock so bad, use that as a negotiating chip. For example, "You can have Gibralter back, only after you take over Blackpool." If you're really good, work the deal so they only get Gib back after 10 years of running Blackpool at a profit (including all the dole payments , cost of council housing, and other public spending).

That's easy. Putting territorial waters to the English shore, and lowering the taxes on tobacco and booze would be enough to put Blackpool finances in the black.

Edited May 30, 2016 by sunday

[Panzermann]

english literature student knows when she hears waffling by Cameron:

 

 

Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No, it's Super-Soraya... striking a blow against the PM for voters everywhere! Meet the party-loving student who put 'waffling' Cameron firmly in his place in EU debate (daily mail)

 

 

Journalists should much more often do this and burst politician's empty speech bubbles. Why did a student have to do this?

[RETAC21]

Nope, only the strict observance of the treaty clauses. No land connection, especially. So let's see the Gib upper crust renouncing their estates in Spain.

 

Ejem, there are other treaties signed since the XVIII century and such... which kind of override Utrecht, and that's why we have never referred the matter to International Courts.