Meanwhile In Afghanistan

[R011]

The US was also providing the bulk of the supporting assets and proportionately more combat troops as well.  I'm fairly sure, for instance, that the US provided more than the nine infantry battalions it would take to proportionately equal the Canadian contribution.

[JasonJ]

68 killed, mostly school girls, and over 160 injured in a series of 3 bombs at a school in Kabul.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/afghan-school-blast-toll-rises-58-families-bury-victims-2021-05-09/

 

PRC media using the occasion to tap the F3 key.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202105/1223101.shtml

Edited May 13, 2021 by JasonJ

[bojan]

It appears that serious collapse of ANA units is going on.

[Simon Tan]

Und you are surprised why? Saigon 75 redux baby!

[seahawk]

Just with worse music.

[bojan]

6 hours ago, Simon Tan said:

Und you are surprised why? Saigon 75 redux baby!

Well worth it to listen to a historical part of the video:

 

[Simon Tan]

DDing out of Kabul is going to suck harder now. Saigon was easy as it was on a coast. Every land crossing is now at best non-permissive. 

[ex2cav]

I'm not so sure of total collapse as of yet. If so, the coalition did an even worse job of developing the Afghans than I supposed. How much have "we" spent on getting them going? It's almost like we didn't want them to succeed. 

I suspect within two years it will be Taliban light running the country outside of Kabul. 

[Simon Tan]

Shhhhh.......

[RETAC21]

16 hours ago, ex2cav said:

I'm not so sure of total collapse as of yet. If so, the coalition did an even worse job of developing the Afghans than I supposed. How much have "we" spent on getting them going? It's almost like we didn't want them to succeed. 

I suspect within two years it will be Taliban light running the country outside of Kabul. 

And who cares if they stay in country? If Mullah Omar had handed over OBL in 2001 they would have been in power all this time.

[bojan]

After Magistral (Surge) comes withdrawal, after withdrawal comes resistance led by the Kabul government until money runs out, than comes collapse.

Not the first, not the last time.

[JWB]

Paywalled:

Militias in Afghanistan’s north are taking up the fight against the Taliban.

Quote

KABUL — A sweeping Taliban offensive across northern Afghanistan, unchecked by overstretched government forces, has triggered a sudden resurgence of anti-Taliban militias in half a dozen provinces, raising concerns that the country could plunge into a prolonged civil war.

 

President Ashraf Ghani, scheduled to visit Washington on Friday to meet with President Biden amid growing concerns here about the withdrawal of U.S. forces, has endorsed the sudden call to arms by former ethnic rival groups and shaken up his top security team, in hopes of stemming the Taliban onslaught and calming public panic.

In a meeting Monday with influential former anti-Soviet and anti-Taliban militia leaders, Ghani called on them to create a “united front” and support the Afghan security forces to “strengthen peace” and “safeguard the republic system.” The Taliban rejects the current democratic governing system and seeks to install an Islamic one. 

During a separate ceremony, the newly appointed acting defense minister, Bismillah Khan Mohammadi, called on “my patriots and people everywhere to stand alongside their security and defense forces.” He said the government is “ready to provide them with all equipment and resources.”

The Ghani government hopes the added support will shore up the beleaguered national defense forces, which have struggled to send reinforcements and supplies to troops facing repeated Taliban attacks.  But the prospect of unleashing a hodgepodge of rogue warriors to repel their old enemies also raises the specter of civil war, a state of violent anarchy that Afghans remember all too well from the 1990s. And although the armed groups have pledged to coordinate with government forces, it is also possible that effort could unravel into confused, competing clashes among purported allies. Atta Mohammed Noor, a northern warlord and former governor, posted a tweet Monday calling for a “national mobilization” of former anti-Soviet groups to fight Taliban aggression. He called on all northern factions to “stand alongside” state forces, and in a separate Facebook post he asked their leaders to join in the fight without creating separate “islands of power.” A former Balkh council member, Mohammad Khairandesh, dismissed concerns about the private militias going rogue, saying they were now defending the state rather than themselves. The public, he added, accepts them as a lesser evil. “People now prefer militias over the Taliban,” he said. Without their help, he said, “there is a possibility that Mazar may fall.”  

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/afghanistan-militias-taliban/2021/06/22/f8fa35c0-d34b-11eb-b39f-05a2d776b1f4_story.html

[Josh]

3 hours ago, RETAC21 said:

And who cares if they stay in country? If Mullah Omar had handed over OBL in 2001 they would have been in power all this time.

The stupidity of Afganistan was staying in the first place. Deposing the Taliban and making them retake the country over the course of a year or two would have sufficiently underlined the point I feel, at much less cost of blood and treasure.

[JWB]

There is still the Stalingrad option. Turn Kabul into a Taliban trap.

[Colin]

The worse thing to happen to the Taliban is to win. Then they be responsible for running the infrastructure and everything else, without any funds coming in. It won't take long for people to get pissed at them, then the Taliban comes down hard and the tribes rebel.

[WRW]

I worked in infrastructure there. My sympathies to anyone dealing with it

[Simon Tan]

So many years, so little result. 

[Nobu]

On 6/23/2021 at 10:37 AM, bojan said:

After Magistral (Surge) comes withdrawal, after withdrawal comes resistance led by the Kabul government until money runs out, than comes collapse.

Not the first, not the last time.

Bojan's four stages of counterinsurgency failure.

[Nobu]

On 6/24/2021 at 12:15 PM, JWB said:

There is still the Stalingrad option. Turn Kabul into a Taliban trap.

Now that would be interesting. Something along the lines of re-declaring war on them after the Taliban has extended itself reestablishing its control.

[Roman Alymov]

On 6/25/2021 at 5:14 AM, Colin said:

The worse thing to happen to the Taliban is to win. Then they be responsible for running the infrastructure and everything else, without any funds coming in. It won't take long for people to get pissed at them, then the Taliban comes down hard and the tribes rebel.

It will not work this way: Afganistan would just go back into XV century and stay there for as long as it takes for internal development (since, after the end of USSR, there is no outside force willing to sacrifice tens of thousands of not only military personnel, but also medics and teachers to drag medieval villagers out of their traditional way of life, by force if needed). It was more or less done in Soviet Central Asia in 1930^th-40^th, but by 1980^th even USSR was unable to do it again in one more region stuck in dark ages.

Yes tribes would rebel, but their aim would be tribal rule instead of religeous rule - and i am not sure it is better (since religeous rule based on books/educated people to tread them and written law, even if it is Sharia law).

[BansheeOne]

Nearly 20 years, a total of 160,000 deployed troops, 39 KIAs, 24 other deaths and 245 WIAs later, Germany ends deployment to Afghanistan. Greatest strength at any one time was 5,300, not counting police officers serving in EUPOL. The Bundeswehr contingent to Operation Resolute Support was the second-largest after the US; under ISAF, it was generally the third-largest after the UK. 

Quote

Germany pulls last troops from Afghanistan, ending nearly 20-year mission

By Darko Janjevic | 10h ago

Germany has finished withdrawing its last contingent of around 570 soldiers from Afghanistan as the security situation deteriorates. The move marks the end of a nearly 20-year mission.

With US troops eyeing their final exit from Afghanistan in September, Germany pulled out all of its remaining troops on Tuesday. Last week, Germany's Defense Ministry said around 570 troops were still deployed.

The last of them have now been flown out of the northern city of Mazar — ending a nearly two decade-long mission. The contingent also included members of the KSK special forces, who were tasked with securing the camp during the move.

[...] 

How long were German troops in Afghanistan?

Germany deployed its forces in the wake of the deadly 9/11 attacks on the US conducted by al-Qaida in 2001. The first troops arrived in Kabul in January 2002.

In the early stages of the mission, German soldiers were told that their deployment was aimed at stabilizing the country rather than fighting the Taliban.

Over 150,000 German soldiers have been stationed in Afghanistan over the years, many of them serving more than once.

By the end of 2020, the Bundeswehr's deployment had cost the German taxpayers around €12.5 billion ($15 billion).

The mission, which lasted for almost 20 years, cost the lives of 59 German soldiers.

It was the longest, most expensive and the bloodiest German deployment since WWII. According to UN data, the Afghanistan conflict claimed the lives of over 39,000 civilians since 2009. While most of them have been killed by the Taliban, international forces also caused civilian causalities, especially through air strikes. The US also lost 2,442 soldiers since the mission started.

[...] 

https://m.dw.com/en/germany-pulls-last-troops-from-afghanistan-ending-nearly-20-year-mission/a-58097894

[glenn239]

6 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

Nearly 20 years, a total of 160,000 deployed troops, 39 KIAs, 24 other deaths and 245 WIAs later, Germany ends deployment to Afghanistan. Greatest strength at any one time was 5,300, not counting police officers serving in EUPOL. The Bundeswehr contingent to Operation Resolute Support was the second-largest after the US; under ISAF, it was generally the third-largest after the UK. 

 

I'm glad to see Germany back on the world stage.  Next time though, pick a place that matters like Northern Ireland or Palestine rather than some shithole in the middle of nowhere.

[Ssnake]

Your president wanted us there. Doesn't matter that you disagreed with him back then as much as you do now.

[glenn239]

20 minutes ago, Ssnake said:

Your president wanted us there. Doesn't matter that you disagreed with him back then as much as you do now.

Fair point.  Still, welcome back.

[Simon Tan]

Bug-out Boogie Baby.