Because The United Kingdom?

[Stuart Galbraith]

Just because people mock some of the more extreme claims about Brexit, doesnt mean that its not been a complete fucking disaster judged on its own terms. Every man woman and child in the UK is worse off by 2000 pounds since Brexit, and thats at a time of energy prices going through the roof, even before one thinks about the inflation that, in my view at least, was brought on Joe Bidens fiscal stimulation package.

https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/01/12/brexit-here-is-how-much-it-has-cost-for-british-people

London's economy is shorter by a little over £30 billion (€35 billion) due to the divorce from the EU, the report said.

The average Briton was nearly £2,000 worse off in 2023, while the average Londoner was nearly £3,400 worse off last year as a result of Brexit, the City Hall website said, citing the study.

City Hall is the site of government for London's mayor and elected assembly. 

The report's calculations also show there are now 1.8 million fewer jobs overall in the UK as a result of Brexit – with almost 300,000 fewer jobs in the capital alone.

The report's figures are based on calculations of gross value added (GVA), the increase in the value of the economy due to the production of goods and services. 

To make their projections, economists at Cambridge Econometrics used data from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)'s March 2023 economic forecast. 

The OBR has since released an updated Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) for the five years to 2028-29 in November 2023.

But still the narrative goes on, stop being a remoaner, we got our country back, yada yada yada.

[sunday]

41 minutes ago, Ivanhoe said:

 

Brexit, the other Climate Change.

[rmgill]

Does the Uk have an index comparable to the m1 money supply? 
 

My understanding is that from the US to Canada to Europe, governments overspent, inflated currencies and we are all seeing the same net effects. Higher prices. Combine that with the various climate policies to dampen the western economies, it has nothing to do with brexit. 
 

Did energy prices go up in Germany? Is that Brexit or something else? 

[Stuart Galbraith]

What about the food price index? There is only one country that beat the UK on food price, and that was Germany. Germany that has higher wages because its in the EU.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/articles/costoflivinginsights/food

I thought this was quite telling.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/articles/foodandenergypriceinflationuk/2023

The annual rate of UK food and non-alcoholic beverage prices inflation increased to 19.1% in the 12 months to March 2023 – its fastest pace for over 40 years. This has primarily reflected supply disruptions over the last 18 months, factors included:

• the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which had a major impact on the global supply of grains and fertilizers, and on European energy prices

• labour shortages, which left some crops unharvested

• droughts and cold snaps in Europe and North Africa, which led to higher imported food prices

 

And what is the reason for the labour shortages? Because we cant get cheap labour from Eastern Europe, which single handedly sustained some farming industries. Apples, Strawberries, hops etc.

Here is the problem with your argument, the UK Government over the past 14 years has UNDERSPENT. I can go outside and show the state of the roads and the rest of the public services. The  policy has been austerity, not fiscal simulus. Our inflation went right through the roof, the moment Biden dumped all that money on the market in the aftermatch of covid. You think you had inflation bad? Nothing like us.

And if you say this is tenuous logic, I can point to Richard Nixon back in the early 1970's ending the convertablity of dollars to gold,  which led to huge tax cuts in the UK to stop the near immediate downturn in the economy, and again leading to huge inflation that took till end of the decade to get down.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_United_Kingdom_budget

 

In both those cases, it was not overspending that drove inflation. It was changes in the US economy, and tax cuts that drove it. Yes, our economies are THAT interconnected.

[Colin]

On 6/18/2024 at 8:37 AM, Stuart Galbraith said:

Just because people mock some of the more extreme claims about Brexit, doesnt mean that its not been a complete fucking disaster judged on its own terms. Every man woman and child in the UK is worse off by 2000 pounds since Brexit, and thats at a time of energy prices going through the roof, even before one thinks about the inflation that, in my view at least, was brought on Joe Bidens fiscal stimulation package.

https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/01/12/brexit-here-is-how-much-it-has-cost-for-british-people

London's economy is shorter by a little over £30 billion (€35 billion) due to the divorce from the EU, the report said.

The average Briton was nearly £2,000 worse off in 2023, while the average Londoner was nearly £3,400 worse off last year as a result of Brexit, the City Hall website said, citing the study.

City Hall is the site of government for London's mayor and elected assembly. 

The report's calculations also show there are now 1.8 million fewer jobs overall in the UK as a result of Brexit – with almost 300,000 fewer jobs in the capital alone.

The report's figures are based on calculations of gross value added (GVA), the increase in the value of the economy due to the production of goods and services. 

To make their projections, economists at Cambridge Econometrics used data from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)'s March 2023 economic forecast. 

The OBR has since released an updated Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) for the five years to 2028-29 in November 2023.

But still the narrative goes on, stop being a remoaner, we got our country back, yada yada yada.

I fully get Brexit and why it happened, the EU bureaucrats were not going to stop pushing the envelope. The EU as a trade organization is a good idea, as a overarching government with little representation, a bad idea. 

Could the UK do a worse job of preparing for the exit? Probably not. The way to counteract the effects, meant that the British should have been negotiating trade deals with other entities to kick in the moment Brexit comes into effect. Also changing laws to make dealing with the UK very attractive and building up manufacturing.

For the EU, a trading partner the size of the UK is to big to ignore and it likely had a large economic turndown for certain European sectors. Not to mention the bureaucrats in Brussels are working hard to make sure it's as painful as possible in order to ensure no one else gets the same idea. Anyone who thinks that the Brexit is not going to hurt for at least 5 years, was dreaming in technicolour. There are ways to improve the economy, but you guys seem to busy putting the boots to anyone that wants to change the way things have been done. Seriously, you should combine the parties and call them the "Leyland Partly" after the infamous auto brand.   

[sunday]

2024?

Then the economic impact of the sanctions against Russia must be taken into account, and those are not because of Brexit.

[Stuart Galbraith]

9 hours ago, Colin said:

I fully get Brexit and why it happened, the EU bureaucrats were not going to stop pushing the envelope. The EU as a trade organization is a good idea, as a overarching government with little representation, a bad idea. 

Could the UK do a worse job of preparing for the exit? Probably not. The way to counteract the effects, meant that the British should have been negotiating trade deals with other entities to kick in the moment Brexit comes into effect. Also changing laws to make dealing with the UK very attractive and building up manufacturing.

For the EU, a trading partner the size of the UK is to big to ignore and it likely had a large economic turndown for certain European sectors. Not to mention the bureaucrats in Brussels are working hard to make sure it's as painful as possible in order to ensure no one else gets the same idea. Anyone who thinks that the Brexit is not going to hurt for at least 5 years, was dreaming in technicolour. There are ways to improve the economy, but you guys seem to busy putting the boots to anyone that wants to change the way things have been done. Seriously, you should combine the parties and call them the "Leyland Partly" after the infamous auto brand.   

There was a great British playwright for television called Nigel Kneale (wrote Quatermass and the Pit, as well as the first TV adaption of 1984, which still remains world standard), and he said that in his work he touched on the private bugbear of the British public, Bureaucracy. Which was, and remains, a bloody mess here in the UK (as we have seen with multiple scandals). So EU Bureaucracy has never been loved, partly because its foreign, partly because it was remote. I understand that entirely. I dont like EU bureaucracy either. The only saving grace is that it seems better run and more accountable than its British equivalent. Which is saying little frankly.

The problem came is that the people whom campaigned for it were a bunch of robber barons, whom seen it as a way of achieving their end of Singapore on Thames. It wasnt FOR the British public, it was purely for them and their interests. Aaron Banks, one of the leading Champions of Brexit, admitted he lied, and that he was ENTITLED to lie for what he wanted to happen.

Someone compared Theresa Mays effort of building a Brexit strategy as akin to building a nuclear submarine made out of cheese. Everyone knew it wasnt going to work, but that was the mandate, and they had to respect it. But it was still a submarine made out of cheese.

I think it will hurt for a lot longer than that. You have to remember, our internal markets, structured for exports (and Empire actually) spent 50 years restructuring for the European market. The idea they were going to change overnight to accomodate the global trade we believed was waiting for us was optimistic to say the least. More than that, other than financial services, we have damn all to export to this huge international market that is supposed to embrace us.

Brexit was a solution to problems nobody ever expressed discontent with, and became bound up with a disinterested political class that was happy to watch regional Britain vegetate. The question is what replaces it, now that it didnt deliver the world standard living that the Conservatives promised. Well for them its seemingly the electoral wilderness. Im sure Labour will follow them, unless they can figure out some way of accessing that global trade, and somehow mending bridges with Europe too. Good luck with that.

Leyland Party, LOL. Yes, that about sums the political class in this country up actually. Well done.

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

35 minutes ago, sunday said:

2024?

Then the economic impact of the sanctions against Russia must be taken into account, and those are not because of Brexit.

Its nothing to do with Russia. If anything, the confrontation with Russia should be good for British business. Or it would be, if the Conservatives hadnt spent 14 years destroying what was left of the British defence industry by starving it of orders. Boom Tish.

The price of energy doesnt help. But then at the start of their 14 chevauchee through the British economy, they killed labours stimulus plans to help the green economy, build windfarms, solar, etc. Those industries were doing quite well at the time, till Osborne killed them stone dead by removing the subsidy. 2022 would have proven a boon to them, to the point wher ethey could probably have removed the subsidy. If nothing else we would have an energy policy divorced from the high price of gas. One more bullet they put in their own foot.

 

Latest poll results today project the conservatives at 55 seats. Which I suspect is well over 50 too low, but I think it does illustrate quite how furious the British public are with them. We may see a replication of the worst Conservative result in history, whcih I think was something like 1903 with 115 seats. We will see.

[Ssnake]

If a subsidized industry dies off after subsidies are cut, it never actually did well.

[Stuart Galbraith]

3 minutes ago, Ssnake said:

If a subsidized industry dies off after subsidies are cut, it never actually did well.

With the energy prices now what they are, it would be doing very well indeed.

Besides, energy is something of a loss leader for the economy, in the same way that railways are. Your railways are subsidised, just like everyone elses in Europe are. Nobody suggests removing that subsidy, because its recognised the beneficial effects that railways have on the wider economy.

But we dont look at energy that way, because reasons.

[DB]

On 6/16/2024 at 9:48 AM, Ssnake said:

Overweight, unkempt, and constantly in a bad mood?

In any case, they were lucky enough that the gun was fake/not loaded/that the robber never actually fired it. I shall refrain from analyzing the many mistakes that the would-be robber made, except and obvious string of bad life decisions.

The odds of a corner shop robber having a functioning firearm are pretty low in the UK, but may be rising. Although Dunfermline is a long way from London, the Met Police recently stated that they're seizing illegal firearms at the rate of about 1 per day. (Although there wasn't any information on the breakdown as imitations, reactivations, functional, etc.)

I would imagine that's Tuesdays in Chicago.

[Stuart Galbraith]

This reminds me, there  was a quite fascinating episode of the Royal Armouries youtube channel, showing a number of Mac10's that had been built as blank firers in the 1980's activated to fully automatic by criminals.

 

[DB]

27 minutes ago, Ssnake said:

If a subsidized industry dies off after subsidies are cut, it never actually did well.

His assertions, as usual, are based in fantasy, not fact.

But I think that the defence industry needs to be considered in a slightly different capacity from many other products and services sectors, because its ability to find customers is so dependent on government fiat and is inevitably more restricted than, say, the car industry 9except, of course, in command economies).

Brexit, like climate change, is used by sectarians as a weapon to beat their opponents with, not as a credible causally linked issue.

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

Though curiously, you were one of the leading critics on here when I was arguing with Bill B about it as I recall. I probably fantasized that as well I daresay.

Ive been consistent that was a bad idea from the start. And very clearly, it was. I wouldnt put a glad hand on it, just because its been tied around the hind leg of my political party and dumped overboard.

But as always, each to their own.

 

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/george-osbornes-u-turn-green-6172903

The Treasury's sudden withdrawal of subsidies for green energy projects has angered business leaders.

In his first all-Tory budget, George Osborne cancelled clean energy subsidies from next month, under mounting pressure from cabinet colleagues.

 

The tax break deals were supposed to last until at least 2020.

The cancellation of the subsidies has left many business leaders in the renewable energy sector out of pocket and furious.

Waste management firm Veolia invested £10m in a project which draws gas out of landfill sites - on the promise that they'd be getting a subsidy until 2023.

But they've just been told the incentives will be cancelled eight years early.

 

Speaking to the BBC, Veolia's Richard Kirkman expressed the company's disappointment that the rug had been pulled from the deal at such short notice.

He said: "We're very angry that the Government have made a complete U-turn on subsidies that were agreed until 2023 with only 1 month's notice.

 

"This isn't the way to run a government and give business the confidence to invest."

According to the BBC, the Treasury say the tax breaks were "not a firm promise of ongoing subsidy until 2023"

Energy Secretary Amber Rudd, said: "We don't want industry to be permanently dependent on subsidies. That's what government's role is: to support industries until they become subsidy free while keeping an eye on people's bills.

 

 

But critics say cancelling the subsidies will drive up CO2 emissions.

The Chancellor also announced subsidies for onshore wind farms will end a full year earlier than planned.

 

Edited June 20, 2024 by Stuart Galbraith

[Stuart Galbraith]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/may/09/uk-needs-urgent-long-term-plan-to-develop-future-green-hi-tech-industries?ref=biztoc.com

 

Britain risks falling behind in a multibillion-pound global “arms race” of re-industrialisation without an urgent launch of a coherent plan for manufacturing, Andy Haldane has warned.

The influential economist, who is on Jeremy Hunt’s council of economic advisers, said the UK was “not really in the race at any kind of scale” as other countries steal a march in developing the green, hi-tech industries of the future.

“The world is facing right now an arms race in re-industrialisation. And I think we’re at risk of falling behind in that arms race unless we give it the giddy up,” he said.

The chief executive of the Royal Society of Arts thinktank said three factors underpinned the scramble: a need to boost the resilience of supply chains after widespread disruption during the Covid pandemic; decarbonisation; and rising military tensions.

 

 

It comes as the US and the EU invest billions of pounds to support domestic production of everything from renewable energy to microchips and electric vehicles, with Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) pumping $369bn (£292bn) into America’s industrial base.

Haldane, a former chief economist at the Bank of England, said: “China has been at this – green tech – for many, many years, and has stolen a march in many, many technologies, including solar and batteries.

“The west has belatedly woken up. The IRA is throwing cash to the wall on that. The cost of that [is] almost certainly north of half a trillion dollars. Possibly north of a trillion. The EU is now playing catch up, [and] the UK currently is not really in the race at any kind of scale.”

[DB]

No, I've criticised historical decisions that resulted in procured equipment that was unexportable - with things like the VC-10 being perhaps the canonical example. That wasn't a military procurement, though, although the over-specification of big-ticket developments towards government-mandated needs was fairly universal at the time. It would be easy to argue that post-war the UK was a command economy, with resource allocation by the Ministry of Supply, and so forth, so government interference without good business sense isn't unexpected, albeit unfortunate.

More importantly, though, you're asserting that the government has removed "subsidies" from the defence industry, and that is an absurdity. Most of the equipment supplied by the defence industry is bought by government and so you're claiming that subsidies are paid to make it possible for the government to buy the equipment that they've subsidised.

The only way that a claim that the defence industry is subsidised makes any sense at all is that "subsidies" come from one government budget and are used to enable purchases from a different government budget - the various rescue missions for ship building come to mind.

The main point of criticism that I've made in recent years has been related to the lack of provision in procurements that have been devolved to the individual services to the impact on the UK economy - with the "anyone but BAE" attitude meaning that money that could be spent in the UK is exported to the US instead, on the basis of exaggerated performance claims and understated programme costs.

[Stuart Galbraith]

This was also a nice story I found, about how the UK gas reserve, which was put in place to deal with challenging financial times, was closed and then demolished in 2017. Just 5 years before Russia invaded Ukraine and sent the world gas prices soaring through the roof. And as you can see, the Conservative Government of the day didnt raise any objections about whether this was a good idea or not.

https://www.ft.com/content/564a1ec0-8288-11e7-a4ce-15b2513cb3

Basically, the Conservative policy on energy has been barking mad from day one. Which considering they have tried to appease greens to get their vote, and appease energy firms to get their fiscal backing, surely isnt any kind of surprise.

I remember many years ago, I was down at Portishead, and just outside what used to be the port were 3 or 4 large oil storage tanks. Supposedly back in the 1960's, we took energy resiliance seriously, and built these tanks as part of an oil reserve in case prices went through the roof in the 1970's. Which they did. Interestingly it was probably a conservative Government that built them. Not surprisingly not long after I saw them in the 1990's, they were demolished to build a housing estate.

Well, there's progress for you.

 

[Ivanhoe]

Any economist who takes Biden's spending programs seriously should be laughed out of the house. To wit;

https://thehill.com/opinion/4517470-dei-killed-the-chips-act/

 

 

[rmgill]

Stu, your conservatives are on board with net zero right? You’re on board with that right? 
 

If yes to both, why the hell are you blaming energy prices on Brexit?

[Stuart Galbraith]

Im not on board with net zero. Im on board with cheaper energy, whether its nuclear, wind, tidal or solar. Anything, as long as its not dumping cash in the Kremlins pocket.

Point out where I said energy prices were down to Brexit.

 

[urbanoid]

1 minute ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Im not on board with net zero. Im on board with cheaper energy, whether its nuclear, wind, tidal or solar. Anything, as long as its not dumping cash in the Kremlins pocket.

Point out where I said energy prices were down to Brexit.

 

You can buy our coal, not very good quality and very expensive, but we don't like the Russkies and you'll make the expansion of our military easier.

[Stuart Galbraith]

You can buy our coal, finest quality in the world...

Oh snap.

Now, do you see what I mean abou the Conservatives not having an energy policy? The national coal board were warning about this problem 30 years ago, and they ignored them. Nice one.

[urbanoid]

15 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

You can buy our coal, finest quality in the world...

Oh snap.

Now, do you see what I mean abou the Conservatives not having an energy policy? The national coal board were warning about this problem 30 years ago, and they ignored them. Nice one.

You shouldn't extract your own, it's very bad for your environment, may cause pollution of groundwater and in extreme cases your island might sink. Please buy ours mister. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

Not only that, but all those Welshmen and Geordies digging it are (gasp) Socialists!

[rmgill]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Im not on board with net zero. Im on board with cheaper energy, whether its nuclear, wind, tidal or solar. Anything, as long as its not dumping cash in the Kremlins pocket.

But you've clearly stated, numerous times that you want to stop global warming. The right poeple in power are making this a reality in as much as unicorn farts will support it. 

So I think your views on this subject are in conflict. 

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Point out where I said energy prices were down to Brexit.

This clearly seems to imply the energy costs are due to Brexit 

 

On 6/18/2024 at 11:37 AM, Stuart Galbraith said:

Just because people mock some of the more extreme claims about Brexit, doesnt mean that its not been a complete fucking disaster judged on its own terms. Every man woman and child in the UK is worse off by 2000 pounds since Brexit, and thats at a time of energy prices going through the roof, even before one thinks about the inflation that, in my view at least, was brought on Joe Bidens fiscal stimulation package.

Why would a US monetary policy issue make inflation occur  in the UK?