The Middle East War

[Josh]

45 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Whatever the motive, the article indicates that the war backfired on the Israelis.  The Iranians have come away more unified than before, and with a sense that Israel's air defenses are weak enough that their missile and drone strategy can succeed.   

I cannot imagine why they would come to such a conclusion.

[urbanoid]

43 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

The usual defeatist approach is that if there is even one small downside, it's not worth it. And that's why you are called defeatists. Because you seek defeat. Because it's the only option you can see.

+1

They like to call themselves 'realists', but 'defeatists' is indeed a more appropriate term.

[Josh]

Having reread the article more fully, it states there were attacks on police stations and other security organizations to facilitate an uprising. Is there any evidence of this? I am sure IRGC forces were attacked, but unless the basij were as well it is hard to interpret the 12 day effort as being regime change. And while that may have been a desired outcome and even one which some small amount of effort was invested, it hardly seems like the focus of the operation.

[glenn239]

23 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

The usual defeatist approach is that if there is even one small downside, it's not worth it. And that's why you are called defeatists. Because you seek defeat. Because it's the only option you can see.

My hunch is that you are willing to roll the dice on Israel's future.  If the roll succeeds then Israel will dominate for another decade.  If the roll fails then you'll slip out of the country as the walls start to cave in, and you'll live your life elsewhere.  

Edited November 2 by glenn239

[Mighty_Zuk]

34 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

My hunch is that you are willing to roll the dice on Israel's future.  If the roll succeeds then Israel will dominate for another decade.  If the roll fails then you'll slip out of the country as the walls start to cave in, and you'll live your life elsewhere.  

I don't see myself moving out before retirement, and even then I probably won't.

Edited November 2 by Mighty_Zuk

[Tim the Tank Nut]

"the Iranians are more united than ever".  So what?  Given the way the nation of Iran is run unity it irrelevant.  The people aren't going to overthrow the regime under any circumstances so their unity doesn't mean anything in real world terms.

[Stuart Galbraith]

We once said the same about the Soviets too. The Regime is running out of time, the only question is whether its quicker to let them figure it out themselves, or hasten it by bombing them. Bombing them didnt seem to do any good. Containment and ignoring seemed to work with the Soviets, and its probably worth a try for Iran.

[Mighty_Zuk]

Iran's reservoirs are still rapidly depleting and no rain so far. 

 

[Roman Alymov]

"The first container train from Russia arrived at the Iranian port

This shipment is an important stage in the development of logistics services for the North—South MTC.

A train of 62 forty-foot containers with sulphated cellulose proceeded from the landfill of the Northern Railway along the eastern route of the corridor and arrived at the dry port of Aprin. The transit time was 13 days.
The starting point of the train route is located 900 kilometers north of Moscow, and the route itself runs through Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Iran. The transportation was a continuation of the work of Russian Railways Logistics to create and promote integrated logistics solutions based on the North—South corridor.

After passing through the customs clearance procedure, the transit train will depart for Bandar Abbas on July 13 and arrive there in about 60-70 hours, after which it will continue its journey to one of the ports of India.

The Managing Director of Khorasan Railways said that the Russia-India corridor is a sustainable, economically profitable, rapid North-South transit route capable of transporting millions of tons of cargo, which corresponds to the capacity of Iran's railways.

The India-Russia transit container train, which arrived in Iran via Serakhs, is part of the 3,800-kilometer eastern route of the North-South corridor from Moscow to Serakhs and 1,600 kilometers from there to Bandar Abbas. There, 39 containers of the transit train are removed from the train and loaded onto a ship for shipment by sea to India.

A pilot container train has been dispatched from Chekhov station in the Moscow region to the port of Navasheva in India.

The length of the railway route through the territories of Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran and India is more than 8 thousand km." Первый контейнерный поезд из России прибыл в иранский порт в блоге Экспорт / Сделано у нас

[glenn239]

This article is indicating that the Israeli 12 day war was a bit of an 'own goal'.  Specifically, it exposed flaws in Iranian air defense that the Chinese are currently helping to repair, while on the missile defense front the war was so taxing on Israeli and US resources as to be unsustainable for more than a few more weeks.  Also of interest, it indicates that Iranian missile production is now in maximum overdrive with the goal to be able to launch a crippling salvo of 2,000 missiles at once. 

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/iran-is-preparing-for-next-round-of-clash-with-israel/

 

he report highlighted that a prolonged war could have compelled the US and Israel to divert interceptors intended for other countries or prioritize aerial threats, deliberately allowing certain missiles to skip through the missile defense architecture.

“The demand was so staggering that at one point, the Pentagon considered a plan to divert interceptors purchased by Saudi Arabia to the systems in Israel,” a US defense official said.

The swiftly exhausting stockpiles of air defense missiles played a prominent role in Israel agreeing to a ceasefire with Iran, just after 12 days of warfare.

 

Edited November 14 by glenn239

[glenn239]

Israeli update on situation with Iran,

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/iran-aims-to-fire-2-000-missiles-at-once-in-future-conflict-israel-warns/ar-AA1S5dbD?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=6939987cc7914fe6beba6e8ef15ee513&ei=14

Article indicates that Iranian missile factories are producing in overdrive, the Israelis are signalling they want to talk and the Iranians do not believe a word they say.  Plan is to be able to hit Israel at the start of another war with 2,000 missiles in one attack.