The Middle East War

[17thfabn]

2 hours ago, RETAC21 said:

Easier to ship components that whole missiles, and Iranian missiles have proven ineffective in penetrating Israeli defenses and causing damage, so it makes sense to build them close to the user, Hizballah, as transporting complete missiles is a non starter precisely because Israel has been bombing Syria at will - which leads to a hardened, underground factory.

So these are more assembly centers from Iranian components to be shipped on to Hizballah? That is more understandable. 

[Mighty_Zuk]

Israel to buy $8 billion worth of kit from the US.

IDF wants new Apaches (E variant) but it's likely to include a lot of parts to maintain the existing fleet of A and D variants. IDF reportedly wants to keep the A's in service for a while longer due to their increasing volume of tasks.

 

[crazyinsane105]

On 1/3/2025 at 11:06 AM, 17thfabn said:

That story makes ZERO sense. Why would Iran have a production facility in Syria for manufacturing missiles? 

Israel & the U.S. have treated Syria as a shooting gallery for years. Why would Iran put a production facility in Syria that could easily be targeted by the U.S. or Israel?

The fact it required commandos to go underground means this wasn’t an easy target to hit from the air. If so, the IDF would have done just that. It’s unlikely the Iranians thought Assad would fall as quickly as he did, and that manufacturing such missiles in Syria reduced the risk of them being intercepted elsewhere (such as warehouses in Iraq or at sea). 
 

Not to mention that the Iranians probably had some intention to not only manufacture but transport finished missiles from one underground structure quickly to another, hence making interdictions from air very difficult. 
 

Edited January 5 by crazyinsane105

[Mighty_Zuk]

19 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

The fact it required commandos to go underground means this wasn’t an easy target to hit from the air. If so, the IDF would have done just that.

Quite a reach. Just because the IDF preferred to go the ground route doesn't mean it's out of pure necessity. There's a lot to be gained from going inside on foot, particularly in terms of intel. 

Even if the IAF lacked munitions to strike it, which I seriously doubt considering the successful elimination of Nasrallah, it could still render it inoperable by BLU'ing (cheap, quick) the entrances and ventilation shafts every time it was repaired (expensive, slow).

What can be gained:

1. Complete and assured destruction.

2. Sensitive intel stored inside.

3. Extraction of VIPs.

4. Validation of intel.

Last point is incredibly important because of its ramifications on similar underground facilities spread across axis territories such as Lebanon, Yemen, Iran. If it turned out to be significantly different from what it was assumed to be, then it could force Israel to rethink its strike plans against similar facilities. Or if it was similar to the intel, it could validate such plans.

[rmgill]

Shipping manifests and other records. Any unknown sources too…

[Mighty_Zuk]

JPost quotes the Nagel Committee (on defense expenditure) listed a large number of demands to bolster Israel's security, including instituting a mandatory draft for all populations (including ultra orthodox who were exempt through a loophole, and Arabs who were legally exempt), preparing for independent action on Iran, massive defense spending increases, and among all these - preparation for a fight with Turkey.

It's important to add that this committee focuses on general changes, primarily financial ones. It does not dictate security policies such as who's a friend or foe. But it does seem to reflect the material investment required of Israel in light of Turkey's hostility and expansion of influence up to Israel's borders.

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-836362#836362

[LeeWalls]

2 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

JPost quotes the Nagel Committee (on defense expenditure) listed a large number of demands to bolster Israel's security, including instituting a mandatory draft for all populations (including ultra orthodox who were exempt through a loophole, and Arabs who were legally exempt), preparing for independent action on Iran, massive defense spending increases, and among all these - preparation for a fight with Turkey.

It's important to add that this committee focuses on general changes, primarily financial ones. It does not dictate security policies such as who's a friend or foe. But it does seem to reflect the material investment required of Israel in light of Turkey's hostility and expansion of influence up to Israel's borders.

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-836362#836362

Pardon my ignorance (which is massive on this subject) but on what grounds were "Ultra Orthodox" exempted?  Weren't the ancient Jews proud warriors?   Was their a priestly class back then that was exempt from military duties and these folks are considered analogous?   I suppose most cultures historically have had "exempt" classes -- I wonder what is the basis here.

[urbanoid]

41 minutes ago, LeeWalls said:

Pardon my ignorance (which is massive on this subject) but on what grounds were "Ultra Orthodox" exempted?  Weren't the ancient Jews proud warriors?   Was their a priestly class back then that was exempt from military duties and these folks are considered analogous?   I suppose most cultures historically have had "exempt" classes -- I wonder what is the basis here.

Quote

The exemptions offered to the ultra-Orthodox Haredi community date back to the early days of the state of Israel in 1948 when its first prime minister, the socialist David Ben-Gurion, exempted about 400 students from military service so they could devote themselves to religious study. In so doing, Ben-Gurion hoped to keep alive sacred knowledge and traditions almost wiped out in the Holocaust.

Since then, the exemptions have become an increasing headache as the fast-growing community has expanded to make up more than 13% of Israel's population, a proportion expected to reach around a third within 40 years due to a high birth rate.

The Haredi resistance to joining the military is based around their strong sense of religious identity, which many families fear risks being weakened by army service.

Some Haredi men do serve in the army but most do not, which many secular Israelis feel exacerbates social divisions. Often living in heavily Orthodox neighbourhoods and devoting their lives to religious study, many Haredi men do not work for money but live off donations, state benefits and the often paltry wages of their wives, many of whom do work.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israels-contentious-military-exemption-ultra-orthodox-community-2024-07-19/

It didn't hurt that there were fuck all of them when Israel got its independence, so... let's just give exemptions to a few hundred people, what can go wrong?

[LeeWalls]

2 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israels-contentious-military-exemption-ultra-orthodox-community-2024-07-19/

It didn't hurt that there were fuck all of them when Israel got its independence, so... let's just give exemptions to a few hundred people, what can go wrong?

Becoming up to a third of the population?   Don't work but live on donations?   Refuse to fight for the common defense?  Man--this doesn't look good at all.

[Mighty_Zuk]

17 minutes ago, LeeWalls said:

Pardon my ignorance (which is massive on this subject) but on what grounds were "Ultra Orthodox" exempted?  Weren't the ancient Jews proud warriors?   Was their a priestly class back then that was exempt from military duties and these folks are considered analogous?   I suppose most cultures historically have had "exempt" classes -- I wonder what is the basis here.

In Israel's early days, the state gave a few hundred people who devoted their life to religion, exemption from service. Since then, the phenomenon only grew. A class of ultra religious Jews, called Haredim in Israel or ultra orthodox, was born and it was extreme in its ideologies. It opposed the state, led a separationist way of life, and abused welfare laws to leech off the working classes. 

Today they have a dangerously high birth rate of 6.2 children per family and even that's a 40-year low. They evade taxes, live in voluntary poverty, and live off various financial benefits and subsidies tailored for them. Worst of all - they abstain from STEM, forcing their youth back into the community because they're unable to integrate into society without education. They also underwent a cultural change and adopted a missionary approach - spreading to other cities, imposing their religious culture, and trying to get people to convert to ultra orthodoxy.

At one point, when they became a demographic threat, they formed political parties. Netanyahu and his predecessors in the classic Israeli right, partnered with the ultra orthodox and offered them continued exemptions, in exchange for entering the coalition. 

Israel's supreme court of justice demanded since around the 90's to solve the legal loophole and enlist the ultra orthodox. Governments fell over this topic. October 7th was a breaking point. Now the voter base of the "right" also demands ultra orthodox enlistment, and the supreme court ordered the state to start enlisting ultra orthodox and update it on the progress. Government's dragging its feet. Netanyahu is in bed with the ultra orthodox. If he passes a mandatory draft law, he's politically cooked. The ultra orthodox will bolt, there will be elections, and Netanyahu won't recover from this.

Their continued excuses and tantrum fit over the issue have only further alienated them in the eyes of the general public, and now the public demands not only removing all their subsidies, but imposing economical sanctions. 

I am hopeful that after the 2026 elections, Israel will be able to impose said sanctions, and either enlist all ultra orthodox, or impose crushing sanctions. I also hope we'll finally see a decline in their numbers.

[JWB]

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned that Turkey will intervene if necessary to prevent the division of Syria, especially in areas controlled by the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). 

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1876479049570156902

[glenn239]

Israel must prepare for war with Turkey,

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/israel-must-prepare-for-potential-war-with-turkey-nagel-committee-warns/ar-AA1x41Bw?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=09b4145d191142199bb163d39f7c7792&ei=32

Israel must prepare for a direct confrontation with Turkey, according to the Nagel Committee's latest report on the defense budget and security strategy.

[Mighty_Zuk]

Joseph Aoun, commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, has been elected as the next president of Lebanon.

Hezbollah and Amal (another Shi'ite terrorist org) both changed their votes from a white ballot to supporting Aoun.

Israel's FM Gideon Sa'ar expressed support for Aoun.

 

Edited January 9 by Mighty_Zuk

[Yama]

On 1/3/2025 at 7:04 PM, crazyinsane105 said:

Well, main issue is that Iran can’t build their own domestic fighter aircraft. Ballistic missiles still offer some type of offensive capabilities, hence it made sense for the Iranians to focus more time and attention on that

They can, it just sucks.

 

[urbanoid]

On 1/9/2025 at 1:57 PM, Mighty_Zuk said:

Joseph Aoun, commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, has been elected as the next president of Lebanon.

Hezbollah and Amal (another Shi'ite terrorist org) both changed their votes from a white ballot to supporting Aoun.

Israel's FM Gideon Sa'ar expressed support for Aoun.

 

Any relation to former Aoun president?

[TrustMe]

23 minutes ago, Yama said:

They can, it just sucks.

 

 

That was just a conversion of an original Northrop F5E. It was a prototype only.

[urbanoid]

Don't they actually produce new-build upgraded F-5 clones as 'indigenous' fighters?

[Mighty_Zuk]

13 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Any relation to former Aoun president?

Weird, but no relation. Just a lot of Aouns there. Both are Maronite christians, so I'm guessing it's a popular christian name.

[TrustMe]

3 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Don't they actually produce new-build upgraded F-5 clones as 'indigenous' fighters?

No. In the media Iran has tried to say that they can produce there own aircraft but it's all a lie.

 

[Yama]

12 minutes ago, TrustMe said:

 

That was just a conversion of an original Northrop F5E. It was a prototype only.

No, small number were built (6 to 12, sources vary). Same was true for the follow-up which returned to conventional F-5 tail:

But I do not know to which degree they have completely new content, and to which degree they are rebuilds of the old F-5's. By above photograph, at least for later examples fuselages seem to be newly built.

[Mighty_Zuk]

I'm cautiously optimistic about Lebanon.

 

[TrustMe]

6 minutes ago, Yama said:

No, small number were built (6 to 12, sources vary). Same was true for the follow-up which returned to conventional F-5 tail:

But I do not know to which degree they have completely new content, and to which degree they are rebuilds of the old F-5's. By above photograph, at least for later examples fuselages seem to be newly built.

I remember about 10 years ago there was an article published in Iran and then around the world about a super stealthy 5th generation fighter (I can't find a link) that Iran is producing. Turns out it was just a fake decoy that a carpenter had built in a school gym. 

Even with the picture above I doubt it's real.

Edited January 10 by TrustMe

[Yama]

9 minutes ago, TrustMe said:

I remember about 10 years ago there was an article published in Iran and then around the world about a super stealthy 5th generation fighter (I can't find a link) that Iran is producing. Turns out it was just a fake decoy that a carpenter had built in a school gym. 

Qaher 313, of which appeared small mockup was shown, which raised well grounded doubts about the 'project'. However, in the end it appears it's a real project, though proceeding at snails pace. Taxi trials of demonstrator in 2017:

 

[TrustMe]

IMHO it's all vapourware.

[Yama]

Perhaps. Only in-flight pics are so indistinct that they are probably radio guided models. Above pics suggests a small aircraft which would have limited useability even if it worked.