The Middle East War

[JWB]

4 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

................ overwhelming majority.

Are you sure about that?

3 million Palestinians

https://minorityrights.org/communities/palestinians-2/

Jordan has 11.1 million inhabitants as of 2023

https://dosweb.dos.gov.jo/

[glenn239]

1 hour ago, Colin said:

I think Israeli will come to the aid of the Kingdom in a heartbeat and bomb the crap out of any forces making a move on them.

All Israeli military options come back to having an air force with a free hand in the region.

[crazyinsane105]

1 hour ago, Colin said:

I think Israeli will come to the aid of the Kingdom in a heartbeat and bomb the crap out of any forces making a move on them.

Wrong, the Israelis never rushed to the aid of any Arab leader whose downfall was imminent. Unlikely they’ll jump in to rescue king of Jordan

[crazyinsane105]

1 hour ago, JWB said:

Are you sure about that?

3 million Palestinians

https://minorityrights.org/communities/palestinians-2/

Jordan has 11.1 million inhabitants as of 2023

https://dosweb.dos.gov.jo/

 

Public opinion in Jordan is predominantly unfavorable toward Israel. A University of Jordan poll found that 66% of Jordanians supported the October 7, 2023, Hamas assault that killed about 1,200 Israelis.

 

Additionally, a survey conducted by the Arab Barometer revealed that many Jordanians characterized the events in Gaza as “genocide” (44%) or “massacre” (28%), reflecting severe perceptions early in Israel’s military campaign in Gaza.

 

This sentiment is further evidenced by widespread protests and public demonstrations in Jordan expressing solidarity with Palestinians and opposition to Israeli actions. For instance, thousands participated in a march on December 1, 2023, in Amman to demonstrate solidarity with Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

 

These findings indicate a deep-seated and widespread negative perception of Israel among the Jordanian populace.

[Mighty_Zuk]

1 hour ago, JWB said:

Are you sure about that?

3 million Palestinians

https://minorityrights.org/communities/palestinians-2/

Jordan has 11.1 million inhabitants as of 2023

https://dosweb.dos.gov.jo/

The number 3 million, if you dig a bit deeper, you'll see it refers to those registered as UNRWA-type refugees, and they admit they do not have official data. Jordan is interested in that, to locally delegitimize Palestinian nationalism.

UNRWA itself has the exclusive right to determine a person's refuginess, so at any country's request, they can alter the number of available refugees.

The Jordanian government rightfully fears its local Palestinian population because they know how destructive they are - leaving every host country in ruins.

[lucklucky]

2 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Wrong, the Israelis never rushed to the aid of any Arab leader whose downfall was imminent. Unlikely they’ll jump in to rescue king of Jordan

I think they did something to stop the Syrian division in Black September.

[Mighty_Zuk]

2 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Wrong, the Israelis never rushed to the aid of any Arab leader whose downfall was imminent. Unlikely they’ll jump in to rescue king of Jordan

That's incorrect. Israel has helped those deemed more favorable to it in hostile areas.

[crazyinsane105]

1 hour ago, lucklucky said:

I think they did something to stop the Syrian division in Black September.

Black September overall was handled by the Pakistanis (both the PAF took part and the operation itself was led by a Pakistani general). Syrian division that was sent happened to be damn incompetent as well
 

Edited December 21, 2024 by crazyinsane105

[crazyinsane105]

1 hour ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

That's incorrect. Israel has helped those deemed more favorable to it in hostile areas.

Read my previous post. Vast majority of Jordanians thought Oct 7 attack was justified 

Now pair up the fact that there is a jihadist controlled country next to it, awash in arms, and a Jordanian population that doesn’t like their king and monarchy for taking sides with Israel. You’ll be naive to think there isn’t a threat to the King, and overt Israeli help will just make things worse

[Yama]

5 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Wrong, the Israelis never rushed to the aid of any Arab leader whose downfall was imminent. Unlikely they’ll jump in to rescue king of Jordan

Reportedly they did offer support for Assad, in return for Golan and IIRC also cutting ties with Iran.

edit. to clarify, prior to Russian intervention for SCW.

Edited December 21, 2024 by Yama

[Yama]

8 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Israeli ballistic missile defenses seem better in the press releases than they are on video.   

Interceptors seem to take off awfully late, maybe there was some issue with readiness or early warning.

Anyhow, the missile apparently hit a strategic playground.

[JWB]

6 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Wrong, the Israelis never rushed to the aid of any Arab leader whose downfall was imminent.

How many of those Arab leaders were friendly to Israel?

[Mighty_Zuk]

7 hours ago, Yama said:

Interceptors seem to take off awfully late, maybe there was some issue with readiness or early warning.

Anyhow, the missile apparently hit a strategic playground.

Those are likely lower tier defenses like David's Sling or more likely Iron Dome. We can see 2 explosions occuring at the intersection point between the missile and interceptors. This means the interceptors did not miss (after which they may fly a little before self-destroying). Rather, what is more possible, is their fuze was not suitable for a missile of that velocity. 

This is similar to what I heard about Patriots' performance in 1991. Seemingly no issue scoring a hit, but warhead was not suitable. 

[lucklucky]

An USN two seat F-18 was shot down in Red Sea apparently in a friendly fire incident. It seems cruiser Gettysburg fired the missile. Crew could eject and are safe.

[Yama]

2 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Those are likely lower tier defenses like David's Sling or more likely Iron Dome. We can see 2 explosions occuring at the intersection point between the missile and interceptors. This means the interceptors did not miss (after which they may fly a little before self-destroying). Rather, what is more possible, is their fuze was not suitable for a missile of that velocity. 

This is similar to what I heard about Patriots' performance in 1991. Seemingly no issue scoring a hit, but warhead was not suitable. 

Arrow was offline? Does Iron Dome radar even have ceiling to detect IRBM class target?

David's Sling of course does not have fuzing.

[Mighty_Zuk]

1 hour ago, Yama said:

Arrow was offline? Does Iron Dome radar even have ceiling to detect IRBM class target?

 

Iron Dome's sensors can detect any class of ballistic missile. It's not immediately understood what was launched toward the threat. Were it Arrow 2, Stunner, or Iron Dome interceptors? I don't know because the videos don't show it clearly.

Stunner does have a small explosive to destroy the missile if it misses, but I don't know if it'd self destruct so quickly after failed interception.

 

[Stefan Kotsch]

An evaluation of the Israeli campaign from October 7, 2023. Was published by a Russian site. But they simply took it from another source. If I understand it correctly from the British. I hope we haven't already had that.
As always, the online translator provides acceptable results:

Tactical lessons from IDF operations in Gaza in 2023

https://cast-store.ru/isr-gaza

@The original:

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/occasional-papers/tactical-lessons-israel-defense-forces-operations-gaza-2023

Edited December 22, 2024 by Stefan Kotsch

[lucklucky]

3 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Iron Dome's sensors can detect any class of ballistic missile. It's not immediately understood what was launched toward the threat. Were it Arrow 2, Stunner, or Iron Dome interceptors? I don't know because the videos don't show it clearly.

Stunner does have a small explosive to destroy the missile if it misses, but I don't know if it'd self destruct so quickly after failed interception.

 

Those seem clear to be Iron Dome due their slow speed.

[glenn239]

8 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Those are likely lower tier defenses like David's Sling or more likely Iron Dome. We can see 2 explosions occuring at the intersection point between the missile and interceptors. This means the interceptors did not miss (after which they may fly a little before self-destroying). Rather, what is more possible, is their fuze was not suitable for a missile of that velocity. 

The Isrealis claim to have intercepted hundreds of Iranian ballistic missiles, but for a zero difficulty interception of just one Houthi missile, they shit the bed.  The difference being that the Houthi failure was on video while the claims of great successes against Iranian ballistic missiles were on paper.

[crazyinsane105]

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

The Isrealis claim to have intercepted hundreds of Iranian ballistic missiles, but for a zero difficulty interception of just one Houthi missile, they shit the bed.  The difference being that the Houthi failure was on video while the claims of great successes against Iranian ballistic missiles were on paper.

Issue can be weather related as well. Enough clouds in the sky can make it difficult for any radar to effectively track an incoming missile. 

[lucklucky]

3 hours ago, glenn239 said:

The Isrealis claim to have intercepted hundreds of Iranian ballistic missiles, but for a zero difficulty interception of just one Houthi missile, they shit the bed.  The difference being that the Houthi failure was on video while the claims of great successes against Iranian ballistic missiles were on paper.

Where is the damage of "paper success"?

[lucklucky]

8 hours ago, Yama said:

Arrow was offline? Does Iron Dome radar even have ceiling to detect IRBM class target?

David's Sling of course does not have fuzing.

Iron Dome should work against a cruise missile, but not a ballistic one. It is just a 90kg missile.

[Colin]

13 hours ago, lucklucky said:

An USN two seat F-18 was shot down in Red Sea apparently in a friendly fire incident. It seems cruiser Gettysburg fired the missile. Crew could eject and are safe.

Someone's career has come to a full stop

[Colin]

On 12/21/2024 at 10:45 AM, crazyinsane105 said:

Wrong, the Israelis never rushed to the aid of any Arab leader whose downfall was imminent. Unlikely they’ll jump in to rescue king of Jordan

Oh Jordon is very much an exception and having a stable Jordan with a reliable government is worth a lot to them. They are likley not to make a big issue of supporting him, but you can bet they will. Jordan and Israel have a fair amount of economic ties and agreements in place already.

[Roman Alymov]

10 hours ago, Colin said:

Someone's career has come to a full stop

It will depend on investigation results: IFF system both on the plane and on the ship are boxes full of complex electronics and software, and as any product of human hands, prone to failures. Out of hundreds if not thousands of flights, it is quite predictable one day the system may fail without any human guilt involved.