The Middle East War

[crazyinsane105]

8 hours ago, Yama said:

Who is 'we'? 

An outsider may have problems perceiving lives and issues of an average citizen in another country. Many political analysts believed that Soviet Union was exceptionally stable system, and our president stated in 1989, that East Germany would be immune to revolutions other East European countries were going through "because their economy is so strong." The Wall fell 3 weeks later...

Let us not forget that before 2011, Syria was thought as quite a stable country, and Assad was actually fairly popular with the West.

 

Regarding Assad, a number of Syrians did like him (talking about Sunnis). The initial protests were largely peaceful and many Syrians had some hope that he’d actually listen to them and institute some type of reform in the country. That obviously fell through very quickly

[urbanoid]

7 hours ago, Yama said:

Need them for what? Besides, what 'we' could even do in such eventuality? 

 

Yet it already nearly happened in Bahrain...

Oil and gas. 

Plenty of things, with doing nothing on one end (if they're reasonable we don't need them too much at this point), through striking a deal with the successors if possible to bombing them if they don't want to be reasonable and start attacking Western assets and/or allies in the region. Anything but 2003 and this nation-building crap as far as I'm concerned, 1990/91 is fine.

That's why I said 'generally'. The ratio of shias to sunnis isn't nearly as bad anywhere else in the Gulf, if the Saudi ones decide to revolt we can just sit back and watch the royals deal with them however they see fit. While issuing some token condemnations, if they're impossible to avoid, we shall not forget that we don't actually mean it.

[Mighty_Zuk]

As of now, none seems to be getting into the Syrian influence race except Turkey, making it the dominant actor there. 

Erdogan's anti-Israel rhetoric isn't meant to rile up the less educated. It's far too frequent and extreme for that. He wants to take Iran's place in the axis. 

Israel on the other hand is only now ramping up rhetoric against the Houthis. So it's not going to start dealing with Iran until at least Trumpy is in the house. 

Israel would also have to wait on Trumpy until it can establish proper policy vs Turkey.

https://x.com/IsraelRadar_com/status/1870014406500982879

[Yama]

2 hours ago, urbanoid said:

Oil and gas. 

Plenty of things, with doing nothing on one end (if they're reasonable we don't need them too much at this point), through striking a deal with the successors if possible to bombing them if they don't want to be reasonable and start attacking Western assets and/or allies in the region. Anything but 2003 and this nation-building crap as far as I'm concerned, 1990/91 is fine.

Bombing them? Why? Unless a country was taken over by some apocalyptic death cult like Isis or Al Qaeda, it's really a Cold War era concept to bomb someone just because their new wallpapers are of different colour. There would be no justification.

As for oil and gas, I don't think they would stop selling those.

[urbanoid]

33 minutes ago, Yama said:

Bombing them? Why? Unless a country was taken over by some apocalyptic death cult like Isis or Al Qaeda, it's really a Cold War era concept to bomb someone just because their new wallpapers are of different colour. There would be no justification.

As for oil and gas, I don't think they would stop selling those.

I think I was quite specific:

'bombing them if they don't want to be reasonable and start attacking Western assets and/or allies in the region'

As long as they don't do anything stupid, I see no reason for the above. If they continue selling their shit, even better.

Edited December 20, 2024 by urbanoid

[glenn239]

5 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

 

Israel would also have to wait on Trumpy until it can establish proper policy vs Turkey.

https://x.com/IsraelRadar_com/status/1870014406500982879

Turkey is a NATO member.  Bibi is a wanted war criminal in all NATO European capitals.  While I agree that waiting for Trump is a good idea for Israel, I'm not so sure that Israel is in a position to use the same tactics against a NATO member as it is other players in the Middle East.

[Mighty_Zuk]

23 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Turkey is a NATO member.

That's hardly relevant. NATO membership provides security in some cases, but still allows members to maintain their own foreign policy and sovereignty.

Turkish involvement in Syria via proxy is definitely permissible to all NATO members. However, it also absolves said parties from the privileges of Article 5. 

25 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Bibi is a wanted war criminal in all NATO European capitals.

That.... is a stupid thing to say. He's not wanted, nor is he a war criminal. Why would you say such a stupid thing again when it would instead best serve your interests to fix this poor record?

25 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

While I agree that waiting for Trump is a good idea for Israel, I'm not so sure that Israel is in a position to use the same tactics against a NATO member as it is other players in the Middle East.

LOAC applies to all armed conflicts.

[Ivanhoe]

21 hours ago, Markus Becker said:

Not big at all. IIRC just a pitiful 3 on the Richter scale. 

I'm sure the Joooz can do better and I'm amused the Ottomans make such a thing out of it. 

Not bad, but 5 would have been better.

That said, I am very happy with Netanyahu's response to threats. The whole we-apologize-for-not-dying thing was getting old. Its 5 decades past the time when Israel must accept that continued existence means continued war.

 

[urbanoid]

Measuring responses in Richter scale... I'm impressed.

[JWB]

Roughly 2,000 Soldiers of the Former Syrian Arab Army (SAA), most from the “Elite” 4th Armored Division and 25th Special Mission Forces Division, who fled into Iraq during the fall of the Assad Regime, were turned-over earlier today to Syrian Authorities.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1870002587988062372

[glenn239]

2 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

That's hardly relevant. NATO membership provides security in some cases, but still allows members to maintain their own foreign policy and sovereignty.

Israel's doctrine is that it will bomb inside the national territory of its Middle East rivals whenever its interests require it to do so.  NATO's Article 5 would be triggered by such an air attack if done inside Turkey itself.   So assuming Turko-Israeli tensions, the Israelis will either be unable to exercise their usual methods of deterrence, will risk complications with NATO to do so, or will see NATO effectively undermine itself by refusing to call Article 5 in a situation where it may apply.  

There is no other country in the Middle East besides Turkey where this complication exists.

Quote

Turkish involvement in Syria via proxy is definitely permissible to all NATO members. However, it also absolves said parties from the privileges of Article 5. 

For IAF bombing missions inside Syria, yes.  Inside Turkey, no.

Quote

That.... is a stupid thing to say. He's not wanted, nor is he a war criminal. Why would you say such a stupid thing again when it would instead best serve your interests to fix this poor record?

Sounds like Bibi should go to Brussels and see what happens,

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly2exvx944o

Arrest warrants issued for Netanyahu, Gallant and Hamas commander over alleged war crimes

 

Edited December 20, 2024 by glenn239

[Mighty_Zuk]

58 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Israel's doctrine is that it will bomb inside the national territory of its Middle East rivals whenever its interests require it to do so.

In the daily competition of pulling stuff out of one's ass - I rank this 3rd.

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

For IAF bombing missions inside Syria, yes.  Inside Turkey, no.

Again not how NATO works. NATO is only obligated to protect members if they're attacked unprovoked. 

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

Arrest warrants issued for Netanyahu, Gallant and Hamas commander over alleged war crimes

Arrest warrants are not issued over allegations, and by an NGO. 

They're issued by courts following an investigation. The warrants came from ICC, which is not authorized to issue arrest.

[Mighty_Zuk]

Expanding the Abraham Accords is certainly a positive thing.

But Israel will have to find new leverage to prevent newly friendly Arab nations from acquiring nuclear weapons.

https://x.com/Osint613/status/1870196160981545235

[glenn239]

4 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Again not how NATO works. NATO is only obligated to protect members if they're attacked unprovoked. 

An Israeli attack on Turkish soil could trigger Article 5.  

Quote

They're issued by courts following an investigation. The warrants came from ICC, which is not authorized to issue arrest.

Bibi should fly to Brussels for vacation and see what happens.

[Sinistar]

12 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

 

Again not how NATO works. NATO is only obligated to protect members if they're attacked unprovoked. 

 

 

that is not how nato works

 

nato proactively got involved in the affairs of other states which did not pose a threat or did not communicate a threat to nato members and attacked them or attempted to topple their governments

 

or if say a kurdish group attacked targets inside turkey, which is a nato member, or if kurdish groups attacked turkey's forces deployed outside the borders of turkey

you are not necessarily seeing the rest of nato come to the aid of turkey

and fight the kurds

 

clearly turkey has its own objectives well above the concern for mere self defense and not necessarily the same objectives as other nato members though they do have considerable influence

which look a lot like spreading some form of islamist ideology of its own

 

nato either does not work as advertised or is dysfunctional

since you are seeing dysfunction in it

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 21, 2024 by Sinistar

[Mighty_Zuk]

21 minutes ago, Sinistar said:

 

that is not how nato works

 

nato proactively got involved in the affairs of other states which did not pose a threat or did not communicate a threat to nato members and attacked them or attempted to topple their governments

 

or if say a kurdish group attacked targets inside turkey, which is a nato member, or if kurdish groups attacked turkey's forces deployed outside the borders of turkey

you are not necessarily seeing the rest of nato come to the aid of turkey

and fight the kurds

 

clearly turkey has its own objectives well above the concern for mere self defense and not necessarily the same objectives as other nato members though they do have considerable influence

which look a lot like spreading some form of islamist ideology of its own

 

nato either does not work as advertised or is dysfunctional

since you are seeing dysfunction in it

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Where exactly is your refutation of what I said?

[Sinistar]

you have some kind of idea of things which are like the party line

from the brochure

or from the commercial

but not the way things are actually done

 

[Roman Alymov]

Good video of ballistic missile intercept attempt over Israel https://t.me/infomil_live/13285

[glenn239]

6 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Good video of ballistic missile intercept attempt over Israel https://t.me/infomil_live/13285

Israeli ballistic missile defenses seem better in the press releases than they are on video.   

[crazyinsane105]

On 12/20/2024 at 3:04 AM, Mighty_Zuk said:

As of now, none seems to be getting into the Syrian influence race except Turkey, making it the dominant actor there. 

Erdogan's anti-Israel rhetoric isn't meant to rile up the less educated. It's far too frequent and extreme for that. He wants to take Iran's place in the axis. 

Israel on the other hand is only now ramping up rhetoric against the Houthis. So it's not going to start dealing with Iran until at least Trumpy is in the house. 

Israel would also have to wait on Trumpy until it can establish proper policy vs Turkey.

https://x.com/IsraelRadar_com/status/1870014406500982879

I have serious doubts Turkey is looking for a clash against Israel. Hell they have been selling oil to your country well after Oct 7 🤣 Erdogan’s rhetoric versus his actions are quite different. To date there hasn’t been a single piece of military equipment the Turks handed over to Hamas or Hezbullah.

Just want to point out that the Turks still remember the backstabbing betrayal the Arabs did against them to bring down the Ottoman Empire. They aren’t about to liberate Jerusalem anytime soon, rather deep down inside they have a ‘meh, Arabs did this to themselves’ attitude. 

[urbanoid]

1 minute ago, crazyinsane105 said:

I have serious doubts Turkey is looking for a clash against Israel. Hell they have been selling oil to your country well after Oct 7 🤣 Erdogan’s rhetoric versus his actions are quite different. To date there hasn’t been a single piece of military equipment the Turks handed over to Hamas or Hezbullah.

Just want to point out that the Turks still remember the backstabbing betrayal the Arabs did against them to bring down the Ottoman Empire. They aren’t about to liberate Jerusalem anytime soon, rather deep down inside they have a ‘meh, Arabs did this to themselves’ attitude. 

That was 100% the position of the kemalists (backed up by the military), Erdogan is like... a mix of islamism and nationalism. The kemalists didn't give a flying fuck about the Middle East, Erdogan somewhat does and wants to build influence there. 

[Colin]

On 12/16/2024 at 10:21 AM, JWB said:

Do you really believe the king can be overthrown ?

I think Israeli will come to the aid of the Kingdom in a heartbeat and bomb the crap out of any forces making a move on them.

[Colin]

On 12/16/2024 at 10:56 AM, crazyinsane105 said:

More or less, this thread describes very well the deception Golani played on opponents in Syria to control Idlib:

https://x.com/karimfranceschi/status/1867984250185842917?s=46
 

I am a bit perplexed why folks are somehow thinking this guy is a saint who will bring upon a new era of freedom and safety to neighboring countries. 

Nobody knows for sure, but I get a sense of war fatigue in the country, so that might be an opportunity. I suspect KSA and UAE are quietly telling him to be moderate and reap billions in aid. 

[Mighty_Zuk]

20 minutes ago, Colin said:

I think Israeli will come to the aid of the Kingdom in a heartbeat and bomb the crap out of any forces making a move on them.

That's true. But the real enemy for the Hashemite dynasty isn't an outside force, but the Palestinians which are the country's overwhelming majority.

[urbanoid]

6 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

That's true. But the real enemy for the Hashemite dynasty isn't an outside force, but the Palestinians which are the country's overwhelming majority.

Black September until they learn.