The Middle East War

[Roman Alymov]

5 hours ago, bojan said:

Capturing AD piece and being able to operate it are quite different things.

MANPADS have limited ceiling so LGBs/tactical missiles put you above danger zone.

I would not be surprised if they would find trained operators to put it into use, but more likely this vehicle will go to Turkey and then USA for tests (or we will see combination of both).

[Roman Alymov]

"With regard to the large "Syrian retreat".

We have people in our team who once spent a lot of time in the Syrian Arab Republic. We pass the microphone to them:

In principle, something like this could be expected. Maybe not on this scale, but the thin one would have torn sooner or later. The Syrian leadership has long been accustomed to the fact that anyone but themselves will fight for them in exchange for access to the Mediterranean Sea and oil and gas fields. Russians and Iranians, for example. The money that Russia allocated to Assad to create a combat-ready army was plundered by Syrian bandits in uniform and without. The Syrian soldier, who was treated like cattle by his own leadership in 2016-2019, became even more disenfranchised and impoverished during the "truce" - he is more busy with his own survival than combat training. Moreover, the ideologicaly motivated ones died in battles long ago (or worse, they were chewed up by corrupt Syrian security forces), and the refrigerator, as you know, always wins over the TV (especially in a country where even electricity is a big problem).

It should also be remembered that Syria, for objective and subjective reasons, has not been able to overcome many of the consequences of its colonial existence and has not been able to unite many ethnic groups and clans into a single monolith of the Syrian nation. In the conditions of clannishness, bestial attitude towards the "plebeians" on the part of local "patricians", it is difficult to expect for 13 years of war fortitude from an ordinary "sadyk". The question remains whether it was even possible for Assad and his entourage to fix this situation, but the fact is that they did not even try. 

Money was allocated for the army and the reconstruction of Syria, weapons were supplied, instructors of the Russian Armed Forces tried for days and nights to make fighters out of "sadiks" and often even succeeded, but in general all this was safely f*d up. As soon as Russia got bogged down in Ukraine, and Iran moved to a more active phase of confrontation with Israel, it suddenly turned out that there was not much one to fight in Syria for Assad. His main support in the form of Syrian neoaristocrats, obviously will not go into the trench." ( https://t.me/voin_dv/12088 )

[Roman Alymov]

14 hours ago, urbanoid said:

Then again the Iranians are a far more competent enemy than some derka derkas. 

  In our age of hitech things bought from China as DIY sets or ready-made products, there is no need to be rocket scientist to use them. And "derka derkas" from, for example, Uzbekistan are people educated by USSR-style school system, i do not see why at least some of them have to be less competent then people of the same age from, say, Russia or Poland.

"A drug courier robot was detained in Moscow
 
On his body there was an advertisement for a darknet marketplace where drugs and other prohibited goods are sold, KP writes.

The robot moved along a predetermined route and even followed the rules of the transition.

Vigilant Muscovites called the police, and the robot was detained at the Pechatniki metro station.

As soon as he was stopped by traffic police officers, the device went into "hibernation" mode, apparently deleting internal information. Two packages with an unknown powdery substance were seized from an unusual courier." (В Москве задержан робопес-наркокурьер )

[Mighty_Zuk]

Something is happening on the Lebanon-Syria border. What we know for certain is that Israel has its eyes on these crossings, and recent events certainly motivate Israel to double down on monitoring efforts.

Curious that it's LAF personnel. 

 

Edited December 2, 2024 by Mighty_Zuk

[urbanoid]

1 hour ago, Roman Alymov said:

  In our age of hitech things bought from China as DIY sets or ready-made products, there is no need to be rocket scientist to use them. And "derka derkas" from, for example, Uzbekistan are people educated by USSR-style school system, i do not see why at least some of them have to be less competent then people of the same age from, say, Russia or Poland.

"A drug courier robot was detained in Moscow
 
On his body there was an advertisement for a darknet marketplace where drugs and other prohibited goods are sold, KP writes.

The robot moved along a predetermined route and even followed the rules of the transition.

Vigilant Muscovites called the police, and the robot was detained at the Pechatniki metro station.

As soon as he was stopped by traffic police officers, the device went into "hibernation" mode, apparently deleting internal information. Two packages with an unknown powdery substance were seized from an unusual courier." (В Москве задержан робопес-наркокурьер )

Are there any DIY MRBMs on AliExpress or do I simply suck at searching.

Iranians are a competent people, they can produce them themselves, same for drones far more advanced than AliExpress ones, ATGMs, fighter jets, cruise missiles, satellites (AFAIK no space rockets, yet) and the like. Their technical prowess is more impressive than that of all the Arab nations combined. Derka-derka state will not be an industrial powerhouse, it will be something more akin to Afghanistan or indeed 'Daesh'.

[Mighty_Zuk]

2 hours ago, urbanoid said:

Are there any DIY MRBMs on AliExpress or do I simply suck at searching.

Iranians are a competent people, they can produce them themselves, same for drones far more advanced than AliExpress ones, ATGMs, fighter jets, cruise missiles, satellites (AFAIK no space rockets, yet) and the like. Their technical prowess is more impressive than that of all the Arab nations combined. Derka-derka state will not be an industrial powerhouse, it will be something more akin to Afghanistan or indeed 'Daesh'.

Very true.

Those who neglect conventional wisdoms and think they can buy their military through Ali Express, should not be surprised when their enemy buys the countermeasures from Ali Express as well.

[urbanoid]

Autotranslated:

'"Yes son, we are already going to Aleppo, as soon as we finish the 3-day special operation in Ukraine"

But seriously. When the rebel offensive began, Assad immediately flew to Moscow for talks with Putin. However, he negotiated nothing and after a few days, he returned to Damascus. What's more, the Kremlin press service did not publish even a short note that Assad had met with Putin - when the Syrian delegation insisted that the Kremlin publish an appropriate statement, the Russians allegedly stated that there was no "political expediency" in it.

It is worth noting that when, after Assad's return to Damascus, the media reported that Russia had agreed to send support, the source of these revelations was not the Kremlin, but Syrian diplomats, who could just as well have made up this Russian declaration of aid so that Assad would save face.

The Russians can use the remnants of their corps, which is still in Syria, and bomb rebel positions, but that's it. Putin, who has to save himself with supplies from Iran or North Korea, has no spare resources to give Assad.'

https://x.com/PulsLewantu/status/1863529946854867118

[glenn239]

15 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Russian air support may be decisive. But your assumption that Iran can push enough forces into Syria seems unfounded.

Why would a country of 80 million and an army of 600,000 plus large numbers of trained reserves be short of troops?

[glenn239]

11 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Correct about the first part, but Syrian rebels have a number of defected SAA that included AD operators. These guys were operating short range SAMs like SA-8 and scored hits on SAA helicopters before. I wouldn’t write them off so quickly 

Would the Russians design a SAM system where you can boot it up without knowing the password?

[glenn239]

Report that the first two SU-35's have been delivered to Iran,

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/11/30/first-two-su-35e-fighters-were-delivered-to-iran-in-pieces/

[urbanoid]

40 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Would the Russians design a SAM system where you can boot it up without knowing the password?

No worries, it's '1234'.

[Mighty_Zuk]

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

Why would a country of 80 million and an army of 600,000 plus large numbers of trained reserves be short of troops?

Why would a country of 80 million and an army of 600,000 always deploy Lebanese, Afghan, and Iraqi militias to fight its wars?

 

[bojan]

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

Would the Russians design a SAM system where you can boot it up without knowing the password?

What password?

[JWB]

Syrian rebels captured a Russian-made, Syrian-operated Pantsir SAM system outside of Aleppo.

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1863319738010554797

[Mighty_Zuk]

I was skeptical at first but it was also reported in Israeli media, that Assad sought Israeli and western help in exchange for dumping IRGC.

I see this as a positive but we have to be cautious here.

https://x.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/1863700786288427186

[Roman Alymov]

8 hours ago, urbanoid said:

But seriously. When the rebel offensive began, Assad immediately flew to Moscow for talks with Putin. However, he negotiated nothing and after a few days, he returned to Damascus. What's more, the Kremlin press service did not publish even a short note that Assad had met with Putin - when the Syrian delegation insisted that the Kremlin publish an appropriate statement, the Russians allegedly stated that there was no "political expediency" in it.

Putin was in Kazakhstan at that time. Probably Asad did speak to somebody, but i doubt it was Putin (and there is strong suspicion Putin would not tell him anything he would like to hear, as Russian public opinion is accusing, first and foremost, Assad&Co in their failure to use the fruits of the victory bought for them by Russian and Iranian blood and treasure).

See from about 20:00 about Russian take from recent events (but better start from the start)

 

[crazyinsane105]

3 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

I was skeptical at first but it was also reported in Israeli media, that Assad sought Israeli and western help in exchange for dumping IRGC.

I see this as a positive but we have to be cautious here.

https://x.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/1863700786288427186

This really has nothing to do with Israel, they are better off just staying out of the entire affair, like they’ve done since the start of the civil war (except hitting Hezbullah depots).

Edited December 3, 2024 by crazyinsane105

[glenn239]

8 hours ago, bojan said:

What password?

Wouldn't a Pantsir have a password required during boot up of the SAM's computer system?

[bojan]

No

[crazyinsane105]

https://x.com/warmonitors/status/1863556530701734358?s=46

T-90A is captured 

[crazyinsane105]

S-125 also captured, a Buk with one missile on its rail was also left abandoned on a highway 

https://x.com/warmonitors/status/1863516359159886302?s=46

 

Edited December 3, 2024 by crazyinsane105

[Mighty_Zuk]

9 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

This really has nothing to do with Israel, they are better off just staying out of the entire affair, like they’ve done since the start of the civil war (except hitting Hezbullah depots).

Keeping the IRGC out of Syria has everything to do with Israel.

 

[Roman Alymov]

20 hours ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

Very true.

Those who neglect conventional wisdoms and think they can buy their military through Ali Express, should not be surprised when their enemy buys the countermeasures from Ali Express as well.

Photos of "derka-derka" FPV pilots school, probably created with help of pro-Ukrainians https://t.me/rusengineer/5964. Good luck buying countermeasures from Ali Express - at least untill now all efforts of both pro-Rus and pro-Ukr side to establish effective countermeasures both with Ali Express and purpose-built components generally failed (especially for fiber FPV drones). FPV drones now could reach at least 30km distance (petrol station in Tokmak was burned with FPV drone yesterday) - so civilian life within at least 30 km from Israel border will become impossible (or even more, with Starlink-controlled drones). It is way more danger then very expencive ballistic missiles controlled by more or less responcible states leadership, not rebel groups.

[Markus Becker]

"...Over at TwiX, the reliable H.I. Sutton is reporting indications of a Russian evacuation from Tartus/Latakia."

Found that elsewhere. Really significantly, ... if true. 

[Mighty_Zuk]

26 minutes ago, Markus Becker said:

"...Over at TwiX, the reliable H.I. Sutton is reporting indications of a Russian evacuation from Tartus/Latakia."

Found that elsewhere. Really significantly, ... if true. 

Good.

The best case scenario for everyone would be an Assad-ruled Syria with 0 Russian and Iranian presence.