The Middle East War

[old_goat]

Smotrich is at least honest. The israeli regime is clearly aiming to create "greater Israel". The genocide in Gaza, the illegal land grab of the Golan, and now the barbaric agression in Lebanon are clearly indicating this.

"In an interview for the documentary, In Israel: Ministers of Chaos, produced by European public service channel, Arte, Smotrich claimed that Israel would expand “little by little” and eventually encompass all Palestinian territories as well as Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt, Syria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia.
"It is written that the future of Jerusalem is to expand to Damascus," he said, citing the “greater Israel” ideology, which envisions the expansion of the state across the Middle East."

 

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/smotrich-calls-israels-borders-extend-damascus

[Mighty_Zuk]

15 minutes ago, old_goat said:

Smotrich is at least honest. The israeli regime is clearly aiming to create "greater Israel". The genocide in Gaza, the illegal land grab of the Golan, and now the barbaric agression in Lebanon are clearly indicating this.

"In an interview for the documentary, In Israel: Ministers of Chaos, produced by European public service channel, Arte, Smotrich claimed that Israel would expand “little by little” and eventually encompass all Palestinian territories as well as Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt, Syria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia.
"It is written that the future of Jerusalem is to expand to Damascus," he said, citing the “greater Israel” ideology, which envisions the expansion of the state across the Middle East."

 

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/smotrich-calls-israels-borders-extend-damascus

Imagine actually listening to what Smotrich says.

[glenn239]

47 minutes ago, old_goat said:

Smotrich is at least honest. The israeli regime is clearly aiming to create "greater Israel". The genocide in Gaza, the illegal land grab of the Golan, and now the barbaric agression in Lebanon are clearly indicating this.

If MZ's purpose has been to convince the forum that he would rather see Israel be overrun by an outraged Arab coalition of 250 million people than for Israel to solve the Palestinian problem in cooperation with the Superpowers and the Islamic world, then he's done an excellent job.

[urbanoid]

Is this 'outraged Arab coalition' in the room with us right now? 

The Arabs generally despise the Palestinians.

[glenn239]

4 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Is this 'outraged Arab coalition' in the room with us right now? 

You worry about getting Poland wiped off the map in an avoidable war with the Sino-Russians, let MZ worry about bringing on a catastrophe for Israel.

Edited October 11, 2024 by glenn239

[urbanoid]

Just now, glenn239 said:

You worry about getting Poland wiped off the map in an avoidable war with the Sino-Russians, let MZ worry about bringing on a catastrophe for Israel.

Oh, so now the 'Sino-Russians' came to the room too? 

[Josh]

3 hours ago, glenn239 said:

If MZ's purpose has been to convince the forum that he would rather see Israel be overrun by an outraged Arab coalition of 250 million people than for Israel to solve the Palestinian problem in cooperation with the Superpowers and the Islamic world, then he's done an excellent job.

The Arab world has no interest in either of those things.

Edited October 11, 2024 by Josh

[Josh]

3 hours ago, glenn239 said:

You worry about getting Poland wiped off the map in an avoidable war with the Sino-Russians, let MZ worry about bringing on a catastrophe for Israel.

Ah yes, the Sino-Russo axis. Have we seen any Chinese weapons in Russia yet, have there been any donations to the cause in money or resources? Surely Xi must be doing everything he can because he’s next after Putin, even though somehow total defeat of Ukraine is inevitable even while Russia is somehow threatened to its very existence…

[Josh]

3 hours ago, urbanoid said:

Oh, so now the 'Sino-Russians' came to the room too? 

No expects the Sino-Russo axis! Their chief weapon is surprise!

[futon]

KSA and Iran coming closer on common ground about Gaza and Lebanon wars and strong US backing of Israel.

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman received a phone call from Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Sunday, Saudi Press Agency reported

During the phone call, Pezeshkian praised the Kingdom’s initiative to host a joint Arab-Islamic follow-up summit to discuss continued Israeli aggression on Palestinian territories and Lebanon. The president expressed his wishes that the summit would be a success.

Arab and Muslim leaders will convene in Riyadh for the summit scheduled for Monday, focusing on Israel’s wars in Gaza and Lebanon.

On Sunday, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan chaired the preparatory ministerial meeting, where officials reviewed the latest developments and outlined the summit’s agenda.

Earlier on Sunday, the chief of staff of Saudi Arabia’s armed forces visited Tehran to meet with his Iranian counterpart and discuss defense ties, the Saudi Ministry of Defense said.

Fayyad Al-Ruwaili and Iran’s Major General Mohammad Bagheri discussed opportunities to develop relations between the two countries in the military and defense fields. 

https://www.arabnews.com/node/2578810/saudi-arabia

 

[Mighty_Zuk]

14 minutes ago, futon said:

KSA and Iran coming closer on common ground about Gaza and Lebanon wars and strong US backing of Israel.

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman received a phone call from Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Sunday, Saudi Press Agency reported

During the phone call, Pezeshkian praised the Kingdom’s initiative to host a joint Arab-Islamic follow-up summit to discuss continued Israeli aggression on Palestinian territories and Lebanon. The president expressed his wishes that the summit would be a success.

Arab and Muslim leaders will convene in Riyadh for the summit scheduled for Monday, focusing on Israel’s wars in Gaza and Lebanon.

On Sunday, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan chaired the preparatory ministerial meeting, where officials reviewed the latest developments and outlined the summit’s agenda.

Earlier on Sunday, the chief of staff of Saudi Arabia’s armed forces visited Tehran to meet with his Iranian counterpart and discuss defense ties, the Saudi Ministry of Defense said.

Fayyad Al-Ruwaili and Iran’s Major General Mohammad Bagheri discussed opportunities to develop relations between the two countries in the military and defense fields. 

https://www.arabnews.com/node/2578810/saudi-arabia

 

KSA is right to fear Iran. Biden was hostile to Saudi Arabia, and perhaps they're reading the current situation and think Trump would also be unwilling to sign a defensive pact with them.

In terms of military capabilities, KSA has none. Its armed forces are weak to prevent a coup, so it needs that alliance. What Israel and the US currently provide it via the regional air and missile defense alliance, is not enough to shield its oil infrastructure.

So if Trump goes on the offensive vs Iran, the KSA will shirley want to make sure Iran won't target their oil.

Edited November 11, 2024 by Mighty_Zuk

[futon]

30 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

KSA is right to fear Iran. Biden was hostile to Saudi Arabia, and perhaps they're reading the current situation and think Trump would also be unwilling to sign a defensive pact with them.

In terms of military capabilities, KSA has none. Its armed forces are weak to prevent a coup, so it needs that alliance. What Israel and the US currently provide it via the regional air and missile defense alliance, is not enough to shield its oil infrastructure.

So if Trump goes on the offensive vs Iran, the KSA will shirley want to make sure Iran won't target their oil.

KSA probably has quite enough money to hand over to organizations that can fight.

[futon]

Maybe KSA statements are flimsy but could become quite a significant turn of events this whole Gaza/Lebanon.

DUBAI, Sept 18 (Reuters) - Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Wednesday said the kingdom would not recognise Israel without a Palestinian state and strongly condemned the "crimes of the Israeli occupation" against the Palestinian people.

"The kingdom will not stop its tireless work towards the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, and we affirm that the kingdom will not establish diplomatic relations with Israel without that," the crown prince, known as MbS, said.

After the eruption of war last October between Israel and the militant Palestinian group Hamas that rules Gaza, Saudi Arabia put on ice U.S.-backed plans for the kingdom to normalise ties with Israel, two sources familiar with Riyadh's thinking said earlier this year, in a swift reordering of its diplomatic priorities.

MbS, Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler, had said just weeks before the fighting broke out that Riyadh was getting closer to a deal.

...

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-crown-prince-condemns-israels-crimes-against-palestinians-2024-09-18/

[Mighty_Zuk]

19 minutes ago, futon said:

Maybe KSA statements are flimsy but could become quite a significant turn of events this whole Gaza/Lebanon.

DUBAI, Sept 18 (Reuters) - Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Wednesday said the kingdom would not recognise Israel without a Palestinian state and strongly condemned the "crimes of the Israeli occupation" against the Palestinian people.

"The kingdom will not stop its tireless work towards the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, and we affirm that the kingdom will not establish diplomatic relations with Israel without that," the crown prince, known as MbS, said.

After the eruption of war last October between Israel and the militant Palestinian group Hamas that rules Gaza, Saudi Arabia put on ice U.S.-backed plans for the kingdom to normalise ties with Israel, two sources familiar with Riyadh's thinking said earlier this year, in a swift reordering of its diplomatic priorities.

MbS, Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler, had said just weeks before the fighting broke out that Riyadh was getting closer to a deal.

...

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-crown-prince-condemns-israels-crimes-against-palestinians-2024-09-18/

Nothing in that statement relates in any way to Gaza or Lebanon.

Edited November 11, 2024 by Mighty_Zuk

[futon]

Countries that signed Turkey's call for an arms embargo on Israel. 

Türkiye’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan announced on Sunday, November 3, that Türkiye had sent a letter signed by 51 other countries and two organizations to the United Nations Security Council, calling for a halt of arms shipments to Israel. Fidan announced the joint call for arms embargo during a press conference held following the third ministerial review conference of the Turkish-African partnership in Djibouti.

Along with Türkiye, the signatories included Iran, Palestine, Bahrain, Bangladesh, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bolivia, Brazil, Brunei, Burkina Faso, Algeria, Djibouti, China, Indonesia, Morocco, Gambia, South Africa, Iraq, Qatar, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Colombia, Comoros, Kuwait, Cuba, Libya, Lebanon, Maldives, Malaysia, Mexico, Egypt, Mauritania, Namibia, Nigeria, Nicaragua, Norway, Pakistan, Russia, Saint Vincent and Grenadines, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Somalia, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Chile, Tunisia, Oman, Jordan, Venezuela, Vietnam, Yemen, and Zimbabwe. Two organizations also joined the call including the Arab League, and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation.

...

https://peoplesdispatch.org/2024/11/05/52-countries-led-by-turkiye-urge-the-un-to-call-for-an-arms-embargo-on-israel/

Only ME country that didn't sign waa Syria. I guess it's because of Turkey's role in Syria's Civil War. 

 

While it doesn't include signatures from G7/"West" powers, public opinion support for Israel going down in UK, France, Germany, and Spain. Israel going too far being the sentiment.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/europe/2024/11/05/support-for-israels-war-on-gaza-has-dropped-in-europe-poll-finds/

[urbanoid]

2 minutes ago, futon said:

Along with Türkiye, the signatories included Iran, Palestine, Bahrain, Bangladesh, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bolivia, Brazil, Brunei, Burkina Faso, Algeria, Djibouti, China, Indonesia, Morocco, Gambia, South Africa, Iraq, Qatar, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Colombia, Comoros, Kuwait, Cuba, Libya, Lebanon, Maldives, Malaysia, Mexico, Egypt, Mauritania, Namibia, Nigeria, Nicaragua, Norway, Pakistan, Russia, Saint Vincent and Grenadines, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Somalia, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Chile, Tunisia, Oman, Jordan, Venezuela, Vietnam, Yemen, and Zimbabwe. Two organizations also joined the call including the Arab League, and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation.

Wow, mostly a list of 'nobody cares'.

[futon]

3 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Wow, mostly a list of 'nobody cares'.

It's been said that the Iraq invasion was bad because it resulted in Iraq becoming more aligned with Iran. 

Next up might be all of ME being more aligned with Russia and China. 

[urbanoid]

5 minutes ago, futon said:

Next up might be all of ME being more aligned with Russia and China. 

No they won't, not the Gulfies/monarchies etc. They're virtue signaling but their leadership cares not one iota for the Palestinians and they're actually very happy any time Israel hits Iran or Iranian assets in the ME.

They know very well that Israel is not a threat to their position, while Iran most certainly is, potentially the same can be said of Turkey and 'just the Tayyip's' ambitions. 

The only thing that could actually make them look to align with Russia/China/whatever are Western attempts to liberalise their countries and the West interfering with their leaders ruling their fiefdoms as they see fit - case in point Biden-MBS debacle.

[futon]

ME sentiment towards Israel and the US is very poor, to the extent that Iran and KSA are "signaling". Recovering the Abraham Accords or something similar is going to take many years. I don't think this should be taken lightly.

[urbanoid]

Ah, it's the usual dance that has been going on for decades. Keeping up appearances and all that. 

[Mighty_Zuk]

17 minutes ago, futon said:

It's been said that the Iraq invasion was bad because it resulted in Iraq becoming more aligned with Iran. 

Next up might be all of ME being more aligned with Russia and China. 

Biden's policy of disengagement contributes to voices seeking realignment. But Trump is now in power, and in his previous term he worked to lay the foundation for a regional center of power that would make the region more resistant to foreign influence.

25 minutes ago, futon said:

Countries that signed Turkey's call for an arms embargo on Israel. 

Türkiye’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan announced on Sunday, November 3, that Türkiye had sent a letter signed by 51 other countries and two organizations to the United Nations Security Council, calling for a halt of arms shipments to Israel. Fidan announced the joint call for arms embargo during a press conference held following the third ministerial review conference of the Turkish-African partnership in Djibouti.

Along with Türkiye, the signatories included Iran, Palestine, Bahrain, Bangladesh, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bolivia, Brazil, Brunei, Burkina Faso, Algeria, Djibouti, China, Indonesia, Morocco, Gambia, South Africa, Iraq, Qatar, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Colombia, Comoros, Kuwait, Cuba, Libya, Lebanon, Maldives, Malaysia, Mexico, Egypt, Mauritania, Namibia, Nigeria, Nicaragua, Norway, Pakistan, Russia, Saint Vincent and Grenadines, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Somalia, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Chile, Tunisia, Oman, Jordan, Venezuela, Vietnam, Yemen, and Zimbabwe. Two organizations also joined the call including the Arab League, and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation.

...

https://peoplesdispatch.org/2024/11/05/52-countries-led-by-turkiye-urge-the-un-to-call-for-an-arms-embargo-on-israel/

Only ME country that didn't sign waa Syria. I guess it's because of Turkey's role in Syria's Civil War. 

 

While it doesn't include signatures from G7/"West" powers, public opinion support for Israel going down in UK, France, Germany, and Spain. Israel going too far being the sentiment.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/europe/2024/11/05/support-for-israels-war-on-gaza-has-dropped-in-europe-poll-finds/

If you have an argument to make, please make it. Don't just dump a wall of text and leave.

My opinion:

In practice, Israel fights the war in Gaza and Lebanon far more humanely than Ukraine could, simply because it has the technology and organizational culture to manage a war in a truly modern, humane standard. However that is not the factor that's being looked at, and the support Ukraine receives in Europe, vs the cold shoulder Israel receives, are simply the result of a difference in soft power.

While Ukraine did not build soft power per se, it being in Europe is more than enough to compensate. Israel, however, does not really engage in foreign policy, and has little soft power of its own while having few compensating factors if at all. But despite the appearance of pressure, it is actually Israel's proactive approach right now, that increases its soft power. 

Israel must find a way, post-war, to exert soft power on Europe to drive policy change more favorable to Israel.

4 minutes ago, futon said:

ME sentiment towards Israel and the US is very poor, to the extent that Iran and KSA are "signaling". Recovering the Abraham Accords or something similar is going to take many years. I don't think this should be taken lightly.

You're mistaking Saudi fear of Iran amid peak tensions, with "morality". The Saudis don't give a damn about Palestinians, and are very much happy with every Israeli strike on Hezbollah, Houthis, Iran, and Hamas. They're KSA's worst enemies, while Israel is perhaps its best ally. But it fears it won't be enough to shield it from the much more competent (than KSA) Iran. 

 

[Mighty_Zuk]

There are signals that Israel is wrapping things up in Gaza and Lebanon. Trump's effect on the region is felt, because he's expected to be permissive toward a regional deal to sort some core security issues. 

But that's sentiment based on his previous term. We'll see if he continues with the same policies that brought us the Abraham Accords.

In the meantime, any agreement-based resolution to the conflicts in Lebanon and Gaza, is being negotiated with the Biden administration and it's definitely possible they'll be finalized with them. Terms for a resolution for Lebanon were already published before Trump was elected.

I assume Israel had a list of terms prepared a long time ago, and is now putting them forward with clauses giving the US significant wiggle room.

[futon]

24 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Ah, it's the usual dance that has been going on for decades. Keeping up appearances and all that. 

So what's a specific example of an earlier Iran-KSA joint statement that concretely shows it being a cycle of the usual dance? 

[urbanoid]

7 minutes ago, futon said:

So what's a specific example of an earlier Iran-KSA joint statement that concretely shows it being a cycle of the usual dance? 

The 'usual dance' is 'condemning Israel'.

Iran-KSA stuff was already explained by MZ - the Saudis are scared shitless of Iran, Iran also has their pet Houthis on their southern border.

Additionally, US-Saudi relations aren't the best at the moment* either, but that's on the departing administration and I expect things to change under Trump.

*and it's an anomaly in US-Saudi relations in the last several decades

Edited November 11, 2024 by urbanoid

[futon]

4 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

The 'usual dance' is 'condemning Israel'.

Iran-KSA stuff was already explained by MZ - the Saudis are scared shitless of Iran, Iran also has their pet Houthis on their southern border.

When was the last time? 

If they are scared of Iran and donht care about Gaza, then they wouldn't have frozen progress with the Abraham Accords. But they did. The disconnect appears to be that even if KSA doesn't care about Gaza, that the extent of Israel's revenge has gone beyond supportable and KSA would lose creditability to turn a blind eye to it.

So maybe Israel should be content with the damage they inflicted, and next time not let the border get overun by rag-tags.

Edited November 11, 2024 by futon