The Middle East War

[Panzermann]

AlJazeera on this calamity:

NewsQatar
Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Bahrain cut ties to Qatar
Qatar calls decision by Gulf nations and Egypt 'unjustified', saying allegations against Doha have 'no basis in fact'.

 

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen and the Maldives say they are severing diplomatic relations with Qatar.

The Saudi kingdom made the announcement via its state-run Saudi Press Agency early on Monday, saying it was taking action for what it called the protection of national security.

The news agency released a statement in which it accused Qatar of "harbouring a multitude of terrorist and sectarian groups that aim to create instability in the region".

READ MORE: Leaders and markets react to Gulf diplomatic rift

The three Gulf states gave Qatari visitors and residents two weeks to leave their countries, Reuters news agency reported.

Saudi also closed the border and halted air and sea traffic with Qatar, urging "all brotherly countries and companies to do the same".
Leaked emails: UAE diplomat worked to harm image of Qatar, Kuwait

The statement appeared to be timed in concert with an earlier announcement by Bahrain, which was similarly cutting ties and halting air and sea traffic between the two countries.
'Unjustified'

Qatar's foreign ministry said it regretted the measures by the Arab nations, calling the decisions "unjustified".

"The measures are unjustified and are based on claims and allegations that have no basis in fact," the statement said, adding that the decisions would "not affect the normal lives of citizens and residents".

"The aim is clear, and it is to impose guardianship on the state. This by itself is a violation of its [Qatar's] sovereignty as a state," it added.

WATCH: What's behind recent media attacks against Qatar? (25:14)

Bahrain's foreign ministry issued a statement saying it would withdraw its diplomatic mission from the Qatari capital, Doha, within 48 hours and that all Qatari diplomats should leave Bahrain within the same period.

The UAE said in a statement it was cutting off all ties with Qatar. It also ordered Qatari citizens to leave te country within 14 days and banned its citizens from travelling to Qatar.

Egypt also announced the closure of its airspace and seaports for all Qatari transportation "to protect its national security", the foreign ministry said in a statement.

Later on Monday, the Maldives said in a statement that it took the decision to sever diplomatic ties "because of its firm opposition to activities that encourage terrorism and extremism".

UAE-based carriers Emirates, Etihad Airways and FlyDubai said they would suspend flights to and from Qatar beginning Tuesday morning.

It was not immediately clear how Monday's announcement would affect other airlines.

READ MORE: How Gulf diplomatic rift will affect air travel

A Saudi-led coalition which for more than two years has been fighting Iran-backed rebels in Yemen separately announced that Qatar was no longer welcome in the alliance.

Yemen's internationally recognised government also cut ties with Qatar, accusing it of working with its enemies in the Iran-aligned Houthi movement, state news agency Saba reported.

A senior Iranian official said the measures by the Arab nations would not help end the crisis in the Middle East.

"The era of cutting diplomatic ties and closing borders ... is not a way to resolve crisis ... As I said before, aggression and occupation will have no result but instability," Hamid Aboutalebi, deputy chief of staff of Iran's President Hassan Rouhani, tweeted, referring to the coalition's involvement in Yemen.

US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson gave a statement on Monday while on a state visit in Australia, urging the Gulf states to stay united.

"We certainly would encourage the parties to sit down together and address these differences," he said in Sydney.

"If there's any role that we can play in terms of helping them address those, we think it is important that the GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] remain united."

Tillerson said despite the impasse, he did not expect it to have "any significant impact, if any impact at all, on the unified fight against terrorism in the region or globally".

"All of those parties you mentioned have been quite unified in the fight against terrorism and the fight against Daesh, ISIS, and have expressed that most recently in the summit in Riyadh," he added, using alternative names for the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) group.

Mevlut Cavusoglu, Turkey's foreign minister, also called for dialogue to resolve the dispute.

"We see the stability in the Gulf region as our own unity and solidarity," Cavusoglu told a news conference.

"Countries may of course have some issues, but dialogue must continue under every circumstance for problems to be resolved peacefully. We are saddened by the current picture and will give any support for its normalisation".
Hacking dispute

The dispute between Qatar and the Gulf's Arab countries escalated after a recent hack of Qatar's state-run news agency. It has spiralled since.

Following the hacking on Tuesday, comments falsely attributed to Qatar's emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, were broadcast in Qatar.

Qatar's government categorically denied that the comments, in which the country's leader expressed support for Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah and Israel - while suggesting that US President Donald Trump may not last in power, were ever made.

"There are international laws governing such crimes, especially the cyberattack. [The hackers] will be prosecuted according to the law," Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Qatar's foreign minister, said on Wednesday.

UAE-based Sky News Arabia and Al Arabiya kept running the discredited story, despite the Qatari denials.
WATCH: David Hearst discusses cyberattack on Qatar News Agency (5:27)

Source: Al Jazeera and news agencies

 

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/06/saudi-arabia-uae-egypt-bahrain-cut-ties-qatar-170605031700062.html

[Roman Alymov]

Qatar is now the bad guy at the persian gulf?

 

KSA bought indulgence by signing hundreds of billions contracts with Trump, so now another scapegoat was appointed - and looks like small victorious war comming.

[mattblack]

Qatar has unfilled contracts with the US worth $25 billion or so as well,for airliners and F-15s.

The US said nothing about Qatar allowing Hamas,the MB and "reformed" Taliban to be based there nor about it supporting Morsi in Egypt,supplying the LIFG and Al Nusra ( for that matter it removed the LIFG from the terror group list so that Qatar could support them as a proxy vs Ghadaffi) or their rebranded forms and it's known that IS fundraisers take place. Keeping Al Udeid was more important. However,I don't see this turn against Mattis happening without the knowledge and support of Tillerson and Mattis.

What are the Al Thanis going to do,go to Russia for support? Egypt and the UAE have big arms contracts with them already so probably not. After all of their support of Salafist groups can they really somehow side with Iran? I am going with no.

 

Of course the US isn't going to call the Saudis to task for exporting imams that teach head chopping and textbooks that call Jews and Christians apes and pigs any time soon but maybe this is a start. The other Arabs have to just be looking at Libya and Syria thinking how bad Qatar fucked up the plans and finally having enough of it but it's hard to know what the last straw really was.

[Dark_Falcon]

 

Qatar is now the bad guy at the persian gulf?

 

KSA bought indulgence by signing hundreds of billions contracts with Trump, so now another scapegoat was appointed - and looks like small victorious war comming.

 

 

More likely Qatar folds in the face of Saudi pressure and agrees to not pursue foreign policy objectives not approved by the KSA. They can't survive economic isolation and they have no one to whom they can realistically turn except Iran and turning to Iran would start a major regional war (ith the US caught in the middle of said war).

 

"Trying to make some sense of it all,

But I can see it makes no sense at all.

Is it cool to go to sleep on the floor?

Well, I don't think that I can take anymore.

 

"Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right,

Here I am, stuck in the middle with you."

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DohRa9lsx0Q

[ink]

Can't see the US being caught in the middle of anything the US doesn't want to be caught in the middle of. Can't see Saudi throwing it's weight around the ME without checking with the US first.

 

This will potentially have repercussions for the UK economy though as Qatar is a major investor and (sole?) LNG supplier.

 

EDIT: perhaps this can all be solved with a quick invasion and regime change by Saudi.

Edited June 5, 2017 by ink

[Simon Tan]

Or not. The Saudis cant even handle Yemen. They need another war like a hole in the head. Bring it on!!!!!!

[JasonJ]

Yemen is probably a tougher military situation than a prospective idea to overthrow the Qatar government by force. Qatar has a very small population, and the majority of the population are expatriates from other countries like India, so can't expect them to fight guerilla warfare. The Qatar armed forces have only about 11,000 personnel. KSA would probably still struggle with the prospect though.

[ink]

Doesn't it rather depend on how many of the high ranking offices can be persuaded to just let things happen?

 

I reckon even Saudi could quite easily chop Qatar's head off without too much hassle, if it was done properly.

[Josh]

The KSA fully expects Qatar to fall into line just based on economic coercion; they are not contemplating any force. Their military isn't competent enough to pull that off and it certainly couldn't make such a move by surprise. And then there's the fact that CENTCOM is smack dab in the middle of the country.

 

I can't imagine Qatar being hard nosed about this kinda thing in the face of that much regional opposition, but its possible. But there won't be a military component to this GCC spat either way.

[ink]

 

I can't imagine Qatar being hard nosed about this kinda thing in the face of that much regional opposition, but its possible. But there won't be a military component to this GCC spat either way.

You're almost certainly right about that. I was merely speculating as a drawn out diplomatic fiasco could hurt economies beyond the ME.

[Simon Tan]

The only purpose to set out the case against the Thanis is regime change. Specifically to convince the US to sit it out. It is Yemen redux.

In tbis case likely the Omani military has been subverted in part. Per Syria.

If Qassem Soleimani is seen in Doha...it will be interesting.

[Stuart Galbraith]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-40168856

Egypt is closing its airspace to Qatari planes in a growing diplomatic row, with Saudi Arabia and Bahrain expected to do the same on Tuesday.

Several countries have cut ties with Qatar, accusing it of supporting terrorism in the Gulf region.

Qatari nationals in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been given two weeks to leave.

Qatar denies backing militants and its foreign minister has called for "a dialogue of openness and honesty".

 

By which they presumably mean 'We are only doing what Saudi Arabia does!

[Roman Alymov]

 

By which they presumably mean 'We are only doing what Saudi Arabia does!

 

There is some diplomatic activity between Russia and Qatar (Foreign minister Lavrov talked to Qatar Foreign minister), and around it (Putin and Erdogan discussed Qatar problem). Seems like all sides preparing to make benefits (or avoid losses) from this developments. I think Qatar will release lots of sensitive information about secret activity of KSA&Co in supporting radical Islam etc).

[Stuart Galbraith]

I cant help but think getting Erdogan to discuss middle east problem is rather like putting Jimmy Saville in charge of a childrens home.

[Roman Alymov]

I cant help but think getting Erdogan to discuss middle east problem is rather like putting Jimmy Saville in charge of a childrens home.

Turkey is regional superpower (probably even more important then Iran), any attempt to exclude them from any process in the region is useless. We might not love Erdogan, but he is person to talk to.

[Josh]

Turkey isn't especially relevant to the Gulf, but the GCC is funding the fun in Syria. In particularly of the last four or so non ISIS regions that can expect to survive the next several months, the area around Idlib. That area is also the one least likely to enter any cease fire or peace process, as opposed to the two Kurdish Cantons and the Turk dominated are between them. What Putin is talking to Erdogan about is the Syrian civil war end game, which will happen by end of year IMO. Who Qatar and KSA fund likely has some bearing on that.

[Josh]

Also, what is the end game for the KSA here? Is the goal to make Doha change specific policies, or is the goal to crush the country economically into regime change? Its interesting/short sighted that Trump signed off on this.

[JWB]

KSA wants al jazeera to stop reporting on KSA.

[Josh]

This seems like rather more than that to me.

[Brian Kennedy]

Subtext = Trump is getting played by the Saudis like a b*tch: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/turkey-and-kuwait-move-to-mediate-middle-east-rift-over-qatar/2017/06/06/3fc3b070-4a8a-11e7-a186-60c031eab644_story.html?utm_term=.550d5c97b9d6

[Josh]

Well yeah, that seems obvious. So Qatar is contributing to extremist groups and the KSA isn't? Roh Really?

[Brian Kennedy]

Yeah, his complete tweets were the following (I really need to learn how to embed tweets):

 

"During my recent trip to the Middle East I stated that there can no longer be funding of Radical Ideology. Leaders pointed to Qatar - look!

So good to see the Saudi Arabia visit with the King and 50 countries already paying off. They said they would take a hard line on funding.....

extremism, and all reference was pointing to Qatar. Perhaps this will be the beginning of the end to the horror of terrorism!"

[RETAC21]

Qatar dared to suggest that an acomodation could be reached with Iran and provided refuge for the republican Muslim Brotherhood. That's enough for the Sauds. The US has been bought off by both side to stay away.

[Dark_Falcon]

This story is explosive if true:

 

 

FIRST ON CNN: US suspects Russian hackers planted fake news behind Qatar crisis

 

 

Washington (CNN) US investigators believe Russian hackers breached Qatar's state news agency and planted a fake news report that contributed to a crisis among the US' closest Gulf allies, according to US officials briefed on the investigation.

 

The FBI recently sent a team of investigators to Doha to help the Qatari government investigate the alleged hacking incident, Qatari and US government officials say.

Intelligence gathered by the US security agencies indicates that Russian hackers were behind the intrusion first reported by the Qatari government two weeks ago, US officials say. Qatar hosts one of the largest US military bases in the region.

The alleged involvement of Russian hackers intensifies concerns by US intelligence and law enforcement agencies that Russia continues to try some of the same cyber-hacking measures on US allies that intelligence agencies believe it used to meddle in the 2016 elections.

US officials say the Russian goal appears to be to cause rifts among the US and its allies. In recent months, suspected Russian cyber activities, including the use of fake news stories, have turned up amid elections in France, Germany and other countries.

It's not yet clear whether the US has tracked the hackers in the Qatar incident to Russian criminal organizations or to the Russian security services blamed for the US election hacks. One official noted that based on past intelligence, "not much happens in that country without the blessing of the government."

The FBI and CIA declined to comment. A spokeswoman for the Qatari embassy in Washington said the investigation is ongoing and its results would be released publicly soon.

The Qatari government has said a May 23 news report on its Qatar News Agency attributed false remarks to the nation's ruler that appeared friendly to Iran and Israel and questioned whether President Donald Trump would last in office.

Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman al-Thani told CNN the FBI has confirmed the hack and the planting of fake news.

"Whatever has been thrown as an accusation is all based on misinformation and we think that the entire crisis being based on misinformation," the foreign minister told CNN's Becky Anderson. "Because it was started based on fabricated news, being wedged and being inserted in our national news agency which was hacked and proved by the FBI."

Sheikh Saif Bin Ahmed Al-Thani, director of the Qatari Government Communications Office, confirmed that Qatar's Ministry of Interior is working with the FBI and the United Kingdom's National Crime Agency on the ongoing hacking investigation of the Qatar News Agency.

Edited June 6, 2017 by Dark_Falcon

[Brian Kennedy]

I wouldn't doubt that for a second, given that it's Russia's MO nowadays, but it does seem like it was refuted pretty quickly. The decision seems more based on the Saudis giving Trump the Mother of All Handjobs and then deciding Qatar was fair game.