Because, Russia

[sunday]

10 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

A 'quick war' would mean vassalization of the state, maybe even anschluss and we would have a restored Russian Empire on NATO's Eastern border. Also 3-5 times the OTL number of refugees that would come to Europe (that could still happen if Ukraine falls btw.) - if they could leave, that is, plenty would be killed, with others being sent to 'reeducation camps'. Russia has already proved that it's not above stealing people's children too, there would have been a lot more of it.

 

Vassalization of the state: to exchange a corrupt oligarchy for another, with little to zero impact in the lives of the common Ukrainian.

Restored Russian Empire on NATO's Eastern border: Not an unmanageable thing. Europe has been living with a Russian Empire on their Eastern border since the Great Northern War.

Also 3-5 times the OTL number of refugees that would come to Europe: It is likely that the number of refugees would be lower than the number of Ukrainian deserting the forced conscription gangs that currently roam the country.

'reeducation camps': Surely you could provide any information about the number and location of those Russian reeducation camps. I shall wait for that information.

Russia has already proved that it's not above stealing people's children too: That is according to the ever reliable sources of the Ukrainian government, not according to, e.g.  @Roman Alymov

Edited November 6, 2024 by sunday

[urbanoid]

Just now, sunday said:

Vassalization of the state: to exchange a corrupt oligarchy for another, with little to zero impact in the lives of the common Ukrainian.

Restored Russian Empire on NATO's Eastern border: Not an unmanageable thing. Europe has been living with a Russian Empire on their Eastern border since the Great Northern War.

Also 3-5 times the OTL number of refugees that would come to Europe: It is likely that the number of refugees would be lower than the number of Ukrainian deserting the forced conscription gangs that roam the country.

'reeducation camps': Surely you could provide any information about the number and location of those Russian reeducation camps. I shall wait for that information.

Russia has already proved that it's not above stealing people's children too: That is according to the ever reliable sources of the Ukrainian government, not according to, e.g.  @Roman Alymov

Ukraine would have to reform if it wanted a shot at EU membership, including curbing oligarchy - it was the same for other new members. 

Not an unmanageable thing, maybe, but I'd rather not have to manage that. No Russian empire means one less major anti-Western center of power and one less worry for all of the Eastern flank countries.

We had several million refugees already, surely many times more than deserters.

4, 5 are a standard modus operandi of this vile, eastern shithole, whatever system they have in place.

 

Btw. I'm not saying anything that I wouldn't advocate for my own country. Losing 20% of the population (as in 'dead') would be an acceptable price to NOT be a part of Russia. Yeah, including myself.

[sunday]

10 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Btw. I'm not saying anything that I wouldn't advocate for my own country. Losing 20% of the population (as in 'dead') would be an acceptable price to NOT be a part of Russia. Yeah, including myself.

Seemingly, lots of Ukrainians, especially on Center and Eastern Ukraine do not share that point of view.

Edited November 6, 2024 by sunday

[urbanoid]

Just now, sunday said:

Seemingly, lots of Ukrainians, especially on Center and Eastern Ukraine do not share that point of view.

Ukrainian army is still mostly Russian speaking and don't underestimate the level of hatred that 2014 has spawned, only exacerbated by 2022 onwards, including among good many of those.

And I don't think you can imagine how much we can hate around here. Maybe the Balkan folks can - they're actually even better than us in that department.

[sunday]

7 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Ukrainian army is still mostly Russian speaking and don't underestimate the level of hatred that 2014 has spawned, only exacerbated by 2022 onwards, including among good many of those.

And I don't think you can imagine how much we can hate around here. Maybe the Balkan folks can - they're actually even better than us in that department.

Yeah, sure, and that is the reason why the Ukrainian army uses barrier troops with orders to shot soldiers that want to surrender, following the best traditions of the NKVD.

Hate as a drive force of international relations is not a good thing.

Also, you keep claiming that Russians are, were, and will be Stalinist-Leninists forever. I think that claim need proof.

Still, the fact you are willing to die for Poland does not make compulsory for the Ukrainians to wanting to die for Poland too.

Edited November 6, 2024 by sunday

[urbanoid]

Just now, sunday said:

Yeah, sure, and that is the reason why the Ukrainian army uses barrier troops with orders to shot soldiers that want to surrender, following the best traditions of the NKVD.

Hate as a drive force of international relations is not a good thing.

Also, you keep claiming that Russians are, were, and will be Stalinist-Leninists forever. I think that claim need proof.

Still, the fact you are willing to die for Poland does not make compulsory for the Ukrainians to wanting to die for Poland too.

If you hate those who deserve hate, hate is good, Russia deserves hate. Stalinim and Leninism has nothing to do with it, from our perspective since the very beginning the USSR was just another version of this vile, inhumane eastern satrapy. We hated it far more because it was seen as Russian (and thus expansionist), communism was just a cherry on top really.

There's generally very little proof of 'barrier troops', especially as a policy. 

No, it's not compulsory for the Ukrainians, I have never claimed otherwise. They can throw in the towel at any moment, still they deserve support as long as they fight. I only wish it was larger, more systemic support, something that should have been designed from the start to let them win, not just keeping them from losing too much or Russia winning too much. 

[sunday]

3 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

If you hate those who deserve hate, hate is good, Russia deserves hate. Stalinim and Leninism has nothing to do with it, from our perspective since the very beginning the USSR was just another version of this vile, inhumane eastern satrapy. We hated it far more because it was seen as Russian (and thus expansionist), communism was just a cherry on top really.

There's generally very little proof of 'barrier troops', especially as a policy. 

No, it's not compulsory for the Ukrainians, I have never claimed otherwise. They can throw in the towel at any moment, still they deserve support as long as they fight. I only wish it was larger, more systemic support, something that should have been designed from the start to let them win, not just keeping them from losing too much or Russia winning too much. 

Hate of another human being is evil. Difference between Nationalism and Patriotism is that the patriot loves his country, and the nationalist hates other countries.

Unfortunately, you have too much of a nationalist, sometimes.

There is proof of Ukrainians shooting own soldiers that wanted to surrender. There is zero proof of the current Russian state having reeducation camps. Claiming that the current Russia has reeducation camps is as erroneous as claiming that the current UK keeps concentration camps for those that do not agree with HM policies.

No, you have not claimed that is not compulsory for the Ukrainians. You have stated that you could accept  the facts that people of other countries die if that improves the safety of Poland. That is Nationalism showing.

[urbanoid]

1 minute ago, sunday said:

Hate of another human being is evil. Difference between Nationalism and Patriotism is that the patriot loves his country, and the nationalist hates other countries.

Unfortunately, you have too much of a nationalist, sometimes.

There is proof of Ukrainians shooting own soldiers that wanted to surrender. There is zero proof of the current Russian state having reeducation camps. Claiming that the current Russia has reeducation camps is as erroneous as claiming that the current UK keeps concentration camps for those that do not agree with HM policies.

No, you have not claimed that is not compulsory for the Ukrainians. You have stated that you could accept  the facts that people of other countries die if that improves the safety of Poland. That is Nationalism showing.

If something deserves hate, I hate it. It has nothing to do with nationalism, I want this vile satrapy on the fringes of Europe, geographically (which means their current, internationally recognized borders), politically and economically, I don't want anything of theirs actually. It's not a nationalist position, especially that there's zero expansionism in me, towards them or anyone else. 

Aren't you going to reject every single source about reeducation camps for Ukrainians anyway, because they're generally Ukrainian or Western? Because even a first page of google has plenty, including about those for abducted children.

I don't claim they should be dying for Poland, I believe they should be supported as long as they fight. At the same time I'm being very critical of both the level and the degree of the organization of said support. That's not a 'Polish nationalist position' either, except for the fact that I respect their right to nationalism - in a broad, general sense, as of peoples deserving their own independent country and their right to freely associate with with whoever they want, whatever Russia or anyone else thinks about it. In that I don't treat them differently than I treat the Balts, the Japanese, the Israelis etc. I don't even have a problem with Russian nationalism, as long as they stay in their shithole.

[sunday]

20 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

If something deserves hate, I hate it. It has nothing to do with nationalism, I want this vile satrapy on the fringes of Europe, geographically (which means their current, internationally recognized borders), politically and economically, I don't want anything of theirs actually. It's not a nationalist position, especially that there's zero expansionism in me, towards them or anyone else. 

Matthew 5, 43-48. Something is not the same as another human being. You want your fellow Ukrainian human beings to put their life in the line in order to wear that hypothetical Russian monster of yours.

20 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Aren't you going to reject every single source about reeducation camps for Ukrainians anyway, because they're generally Ukrainian or Western? Because even a first page of google has plenty, including about those for abducted children.

Well, then show images, and location of at least one of those "re-education camps", please.

20 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

(...) I don't even have a problem with Russian nationalism, as long as they stay in their shithole.

As long as you decide what are the borders of that place, I suppose.

Edited to add:

This seems a nice place for kids:

Quote

New friendships and summer camps for refugee children from Ukraine

Read the story of 10-year-old Myron* who escaped the violence in Ukraine and is now attending a summer camp supported by Save the Children in Poland.

It has been 6 months since the escalation of the international armed conflict in Ukraine on the 24th February earlier this year. 6 months on and there is still no safe place for children in Ukraine. The war in Ukraine had caused the fastest and largest displacement of people in Europe since World War II. Our  teams  are  on  the  ground  in  Ukraine,  in  neighbouring  countries such as Poland and  Romania, as well as right  across  Europe to support the needs of children and their families. Our humanitarian response teams and programmes are working tirelessly to help children and families who have been affected by this crisis, wherever they are. This includes children like Myron*.

Myron* is 10 years old and is originally from the Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine. When the war escalated, they packed their things and embarked on an arduous journey. They managed to get on a bus, travelled through many fields and down many roads before they made it to Poland.

Myron* is now attending a Summer Camp in Poland supported by Save the Children. At the camp children from Poland and Ukraine come together to help them form new friendships in their community. The children can play sports, do crafts, relax and practice their Polish language skills. The children from Ukraine also have the support of psychologists to help with them with their mental health and wellbeing after experiencing war and being displaced from their homes.

 

Edited November 6, 2024 by sunday

[urbanoid]

Just now, sunday said:

Matthew 5, 43-48. Something is not the same as another human being. You want your fellow Ukrainian human beings to put their life in the line in order to wear that hypothetical Russian monster of yours.

Well, then show images, and location of at least one of those "re-education camps", please.

As long as you decide what are the borders of that place, I suppose.

A country is 'something', I don't shy away from hating/despising/loathing certain homo sapiens either though.

I don't know which of the photos are stock ones, which have Russian children in them and which have orphaned/taken away from their parents Ukrainian ones sent into Russia for brainwashing with Russian chauvinism. As for locations, plenty were identified.

https://rchr.org.ua/en/publications/where-is-russia-re-educating-our-children-a-new-study-by-the-rchr/

https://x.com/ri_not_ri/status/1849135052526866879

The report that US State Department has talked about:

https://hub.conflictobservatory.org/portal/apps/sites/#/home/pages/259fe204b4344f90a865c1e796a232a5

Obviously you're free to believe it's all fake and made up.

What the borders are has been decided in 1991, no refunds. Also no anti-Western empires allowed, no exceptions, only bitchslaps.

[sunday]

5 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

A country is 'something', I don't shy away from hating/despising/loathing certain homo sapiens either though.

I don't know which of the photos are stock ones, which have Russian children in them and which have orphaned/taken away from their parents Ukrainian ones sent into Russia for brainwashing with Russian chauvinism. As for locations, plenty were identified.

https://rchr.org.ua/en/publications/where-is-russia-re-educating-our-children-a-new-study-by-the-rchr/

https://x.com/ri_not_ri/status/1849135052526866879

The report that US State Department has talked about:

https://hub.conflictobservatory.org/portal/apps/sites/#/home/pages/259fe204b4344f90a865c1e796a232a5

Obviously you're free to believe it's all fake and made up.

First, it is a bit strange a third country like Belarus hosting "Russian camps".

Second, those seems no different from that summer camp in Poland for Ukrainian children.

Third, it is an established practice to evacuate children from war zones.

Fourth, it is public that there have been so called Ukrainization policies in place in order to extend the Ukrainian nationalism typical in Western Ukraine to Central and Eastern Ukraine.  That is something usual in wannabe "instant nations". Catalonia for instance. No wonder the managers of those programs decry other programs aimed to prevent Ukrainization to take place.

Fifth, sources are really suspect.

5 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

What the borders are has been decided in 1991, no refunds. Also no anti-Western empires allowed, no exceptions, only bitchslaps.

Well, if the other side wants refunds, and has the military means to claim those, then there is a problem, do not you think? By the way, that is the problem of that Might Makes Right approach to International Relations you like so much.

On the matter of no anti-Western empires allowed, you have to define what is Western here, and also consider the case of Hong Kong.

[urbanoid]

As I said, you're free to believe in 'forced ukrainization' (and how would it be performed on Russian-occupied territories) and disbelieve anything you want. Yeah, just summer camps, alright. 

Also not everything in the world is about Catalonia (where btw. the Russians have been meddling too, on behalf of the separatists).

If the other side wants refunds (despite claiming they don't want any for more than two decades), especially if those refunds undermine the Western order, it should be resisted, simple as. What I'd like to see is a better organized and better funded resistance towards those undermining it. 

I don't think HK has much to do with it and I'd rather not move the goalposts there. If it was possible to keep HK from being returned to China I'd support that, absolutely. It might or might not have been possible, I admit I don't know. Giving Russia the bloody nose and saving at least part of Ukraine was and should still be possible even now.

[sunday]

31 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

As I said, you're free to believe in 'forced ukrainization' (and how would it be performed on Russian-occupied territories) and disbelieve anything you want. Yeah, just summer camps, alright. 

You are free to believe in forced Russification, too, but perhaps you should take a long look to the truth of some facts that are true as far as they match your preconceptions.

31 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Also not everything in the world is about Catalonia (where btw. the Russians have been meddling too, on behalf of the separatists).

I put that as an example of public officials attempting to manipulate children, no more no less. OTOH, that Russian meddling in Catalonia is mostly a wish of some Separatists. There were some contacts, but nothing solid.

31 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

If the other side wants refunds (despite claiming they don't want any for more than two decades), especially if those refunds undermine the Western order, it should be resisted, simple as. What I'd like to see is a better organized and better funded resistance towards those undermining it. 

So those patriotic Poles that rose in arms against Russians, Austrians and Germans should have been repressed by the occupying powers, and those powers were right to do so.

Or perhaps not.

31 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

I don't think HK has much to do with it and I'd rather not move the goalposts there. If it was possible to keep HK from being returned to China I'd support that, absolutely. It might or might not have been possible, I admit I don't know. Giving Russia the bloody nose and saving at least part of Ukraine was and should still be possible even now.

Do you want another example of use of military to expand a country? Morocco in the Western Sahara. Few countries protested.

Ukraine will only be a nation when those that remember being part of Russia are dead, and the new citizens have grown up while indoctrinated.  A war is a quicker way to accelerate that, and perhaps that is "Collective Zelensky" goal. That could explain the reluctance to send the young to war.

[urbanoid]

2 minutes ago, sunday said:

You are free to believe in forced Russification, too, but perhaps you should take a long look to the truth of some facts that are true as far as they match your preconceptions.

I put that as an example of public officials attempting to manipulate children, no more no less. OTOH, that Russian meddling in Catalonia is mostly a wish of some Separatists. There were some contacts, but nothing solid.

So those patriotic Poles that rose in arms against Russians, Austrians and Germans should have been repressed by the occupying powers, and those powers were right to do so.

Or perhaps not.

Do you want another example of use of military to expand a country? Morocco in the Western Sahara. Few countries protested.

Ukraine will only be a nation when those that remember being part of Russia are dead, and the new citizens have grown up while indoctrinated.  A war is a quicker way to accelerate that, and perhaps that is "Collective Zelensky" goal. That could explain the reluctance to send the young to war.

Forced Russification is a national memory of most peoples that were unlucky enough to live under the Russian rule, so yeah, there's zero surprise for us when we hear about that. 

'Those patriotic Poles' didn't have their country they could go to, it wasn't even on the map, so not a greatest comparison. The borders are what they are, they have been repeatedly accepted by everyone involved for over 20 years and there were no 'unless I don't like country's X direction' clauses there. 

I don't particularly care about things in Africa between the locals, at least not as long as Western interests aren't at stake. Generally irrelevant to Europe/West/developed world, unless they try to expand to European possessions like those two Spanish enclaves, in this case as far as I'm concerned the collective West should bomb them so much they'll remember it for 10 generations. 

Or maybe having the worst demographics in Europe and one of the worst in the world even before the war is a simpler and a bit less 'conspiratorial' explanation.

[sunday]

Local Stuarting limit reached. I am out.

[urbanoid]

As you wish, won't make me any less right.

[sunday]

25 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

As you wish, won't make me any less right.

Nor more.

[Ssnake]

7 hours ago, urbanoid said:

I believe they should be supported as long as they fight. At the same time I'm being very critical of both the level and the degree of the organization of said support.

This.

[JWB]

21 hours ago, sunday said:

This seems a nice place for kids:

Ukrainian children should not have to leave Ukraine.

[JWB]

Breed or else.

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1856367611019251789

[JWB]

The Ruble is now worth just 1 US cent again, as Russia's currency continues a monthslong slide, coupled with skyrocketing internal inflation.

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1857347136649642035

[urbanoid]

What Russian economy doing?

'Russia: Effective November 15th, Sberbank will raise mortgage borrowing rate by 3.5% to 28.4% APR.'

[urbanoid]

Ha!

Quote

Exclusive: Russian refineries cut oil runs due to losses, closures loom

MOSCOW, Nov 15 (Reuters) - At least three Russian refineries had to halt processing or cut runs due to heavy losses amid export curbs, rising crude prices and high borrowing costs, according to five industry sources.

The closures highlight the struggles of the Russian refining industry, which has been caught in the crosshairs of Ukrainian drone attacks, Western sanctions on Russia, which force refiners to sell fuel at a discount, as well as high interest rates.

The five sources who work at companies, which operate the refineries and are familiar with the refineries' finances, said the three plants - Tuapse, Ilsky and Novoshakhtinsky - have suspended or cut runs in recent months.

The development has not been previously reported.

Ilsky and Novoshakhtinsky did not reply to requests for comment.

The crisis is reducing fuel exports and denting companies' revenues, generating less cash for the state budget at the time of high inflation and uncertainties on energy markets, already concerned by sluggish demand.

Refiners around the world reaped record profits in 2021 and 2022 from the post-pandemic surge in travel demand and recovering economic activity.

However, margins then dropped sharply as huge new plants opened up around the world and demand growth slowed, partly due to efforts to transition away from fossil fuels.

LOW-TECH PLANTS SUFFER THE MOST

Russia's least sophisticated refineries, which produce no premium fuels, have been hit the hardest, posting losses of up to 10,000 roubles ($102) per metric ton during several months of the second half of 2024, two sources said.

Some more complex refineries also operated at a narrow loss while others were able to post modest profits on robust light fuel sales, the sources said.

Russia has 30 big and medium-sized refineries, not including several small plants, which are able to process 5.5 million barrels per day (bpd), making it one of the biggest fuel exporters in the world.

Russia exports around 2 million bpd of oil products and consumes the rest at home.

Russia's biggest oil firm, state-run Rosneft (ROSN.MM), opens new tab, had to suspend refining several times this year at its large, but relatively unsophisticated Tuapse plant on the Black Sea due to weak margins, the sources said.

Rosneft did not reply to a request for comment. Other major Russian oil firms - Surgutneftegaz, Gazpromneft, Lukoil - also did not respond.

Smaller, independent Ilsky and Novoshakhtinsky refineries in Russia's south have been running at half of their nameplate capacity for several months, processing some 70,000 and 60,000 barrels per day respectively due to weak margins, according to four industry sources.

All three refineries were hit by Ukrainian drones earlier this year, contributing to the low runs, the sources added.

Independent refiners have to amass debts as they cannot count on support of bigger parent firms, the sources said.

Russia's central bank raised interest rates to 21% from 19% last month, the highest level since the early years of President Vladimir Putin's rule in a move to further complicate survival for many plants, the sources said.

Another issue was the rising cost of crude, which traded at 50,000 roubles per ton on the Russian domestic market in October versus a required maximum price of 35,000 roubles per ton for an independent refiner to make a profit, the sources said.

Russian domestic crude prices rose as the rouble weakened against a rallying U.S. dollar.

Meanwhile, European diesel prices have fallen nearly 60% in August year on year, further denting refiners' earnings.

Some smaller private refineries, including Novoshakhtinsky and Ilsky plants, approached the government for help such as additional subsidies, the sources said.

Russia's energy ministry declined to comment.

"We expect that the actual (plant) closures may take place at the beginning of next year," one of the five sources said.

($1 = 97.9500 roubles)

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-refineries-cut-oil-runs-due-losses-closures-loom-2024-11-15/

But nooo, sanctions don't work, Russian economy is doing better than ever yadda yadda yadda!

[Stuart Galbraith]

Thats a Goddamn shame.

[Stargrunt6]

Svetlana don't want no kids,  y'all:

 

https://www.mercatornet.com/russian_women_say_nyet_to_children?utm_campaign=20241119_tuesday_1&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newmediafoundation