Meanwhile In Balkans...

[bojan]

What is not true in the statement that then-Yugoslavia was realizing Serbian goals rather than Montenegrin?

Yes, cause Djukanovic was never allied to Milosevic. Never happened. Ever.

They were happily realizing own goal of getting rich together. Only reason they split was due the problem of splitting profits from cigarette smuggling with Milosevic's son.

 

BTW, Italy had arrest warrant for Djukanovic, for that same cigarette smuggling...

Edited December 3, 2015 by bojan

[ink]

Security experts from Serbia's civil sector and universities, as well as officials from the defence sector agreed that the country should work to improve relations and co-operation with NATO.

 

 

Most of whom are funded by NATO countries directly or by pro-NATO think-tanks. Cooperation with NATO is a given for Serbia thanks to PfP but let's not be naive about who advocates for that to be expanded.

[urbanoid]

Nvm, stepping into sth. doesn't imply the need to talk to it.

Edited December 3, 2015 by urbanoid

[urbanoid]

 

What is not true in the statement that then-Yugoslavia was realizing Serbian goals rather than Montenegrin?

Yes, cause Djukanovic was never allied to Milosevic. Never happened. Ever.

They were happily realizing own goal of getting rich together. Only reason they split was due the problem of splitting profits from cigarette smuggling with Milosevic's son.

 

BTW, Italy had arrest warrant for Djukanovic, for that same cigarette smuggling...

 

The reasons for bombing weren't cigarettes, right? Kosovo was.

[urbanoid]

Also, there were rumors in recent years about possible Russian naval base in Montenegro. With the country joining NATO, it will naturally no longer be on the table.

[Lionel Mandrake]

Greece is in NATO and their have been all sorts of rumors in recent years of their casting their lot in with Russia to one degree or another.

 

So what?

 

Well other than the fact that Bar is small fry compared to Salamis or the crown jewel of the Eastern Med, Souda Bay.

 

If Russia is going to make a move in the Balkans it will be either Greece or Bulgaria* - not a bypassed, encircled backwater like Serbia or a Proto-Albania like Montenegro.

 

Which is why NATO's number one focus right now should be keeping Turkey on a very short leash, because if open hostilities breakout between Russsia and Turkey, Greece and Bulgaria will switch sides (as the latter is wont to do anway) in a blink of an eye, and not waste its time propping up Milo and buying him time.

 

As a Pole you ought to know that the more Russia whines about something, the less important it really is - ie watch the other hand.

 

*Hungary is another possible target to be turned but I think the focus has moved further south...

[urbanoid]

While I do not underestimate pro-Russian sentiments in countries like Greece or Bulgaria, them switching sides is a fantasy, IMHO. At least in current circumstances, they have nothing to gain by such a move. Greek economy is in shambles, Russia is unable to help them. Bulgaria has just recently (few months ago) barred Russian aircraft from using their airspace en route to Syria. I wouldn't overestimate loud protesters calling for leaving NATO. Slovakia and Hungary were indeed seeking closer relations with Moscow in recent times, but those were rather tactical than strategic moves, especially in the case of the latter. Besides, recently both are among the EU countries protesting Nord Stream 2 and both were among nine Eastern NATO countries protesting Russia's aggressive stance in Ukraine, they also condemned violations of international law by Moscow and called for increased NATO presence in the area. The only regional EU/NATO country that didn't GAF about either was Czech Republic (refused to oppose NS2 and only sent the head of the lower house of parliament to the summit, while all the rest was represented by heads of states and governments).

 

And I know very well about things Russia 'whined' in the last ~25 years. Those include:

-expansion of NATO (1999, 2004 .... until today) - about this they could do nothing

-Georgia's closer relations with the West - they pretty much solved the problem by now

-Ukraine's closer relations with EU (there was not a word about NATO then) - annexed part of the country and fueled secessionist movement in the other

-plans to overthrow Assad - they now have quite an impressive forces there and growing, they pretty much secured him (not that they may not give him some dacha in Crimea after they replace him with someone else - but still 'theirs')

-ABM in Europe - I guess they will deploy Iskanders to be able to deal with the part located in Poland (that is if they haven't already) and sth. in Crimea vs. the Romanian one, they might also leave INF (that wouldn't be a reason, more like an excuse). Ffs, they even threatened Denmark (yes, Denmark) about missile defense elements on their warships.

 

I wouldn't count anything above as minor or unimportant to Moscow. When someone issues threats, I'm inclined to take them seriously. Not doing so may cost. A lot.

[bojan]

What will Montenegro or Serbia really gain from joining NATO?

[Lionel Mandrake]

Pretty sensible and all rather true (if not a complete account) as things stand at the moment, under the present shakey equilibrium.

 

But like I said, all of that goes "pop" the very moment that Russia and Turkey open fire. How would it all shake out in the end - who really knows? But, then again, who really wants to find out?

 

I don't.

 

So why in the world do you irritate me (and God knows who else on here) with all of your unmitigated, childish glee at the prospect of a new round of that old favorite chestnut - Russo-Turkish War?

 

All bs aside, pity that Poland didn't produce anyone of the stature of Pilsudski after the collapse of the Soviet Union as I would like to think that there was a brief window between October 1989 and May 1991 when the foundations of a real Miedzymorze could have been established and a truly tripartate Europe could have been formed or, oddly enough, if Drunkard Boris had stood up to Europe and the US over Yugoslavia/Serbia and at least a more stable arrangement formed with clear spheres of influence drawn.

 

Too late now and "luckily" for the rest of us, it has "only" been the Serbs and the Ukrainians who have paid the heavy price thus far.

 

So, we are all of us now sitting on top of a muddled mess and yet here you are wanting to light the fuse...

 

Why?

[Lionel Mandrake]

Serbia - nothing. It isn't 1980 anymore and Jugoslavia is as dead and gone as Broz.

 

Montenegro - Milo gets a little time and bit more money depending, of course, on whether or not NATO is serious about keeping the brakes on Greater Albania.

 

Prediction: If Turkey/Russia goes hot, so does Greater Albania.

[urbanoid]

Can you please show me where I enjoyed the prospect of Russo-Turkish war? IIRC in some other thread I stated that Turkey has a huge advantage IF they clash in Syria, which is their backyard. It was just that, a statement. As for other theatres, I don't know how it would end.

 

Producing someone of Pilsudski's stature post-1989? Well, that has a potential to end with 1926-revisited. Not gonna fly in post-1989 geopolitical environment. As much as I respect the Marshal, the times have changed. As for Międzymorze/Intermarum - sth. similar may be developed under US auspices, as the problems with 'natural Polish leadership' are the same as during the interwar period - few in the region enjoy the prospect 'natural Polish leadership'. There are signs of it like revitalised V4 cooperation (e.g. in securing Hungarian borders), abovementioned NS2 protests and common plans for 2016 NATO summit in Warsaw. Also, missile defense sites in Romania (starting this year) and Poland (projected in 2018) - the latter indicate that the US is indeed interested in security of the region.

 

I'd rather not see Poland playing a 'spheres of influence' game, we are not a Great Power™ and are very, very likely to lose. Being a sphere of influence of ... a certain third party is even less attractive, to say the least. And if we were trying to act like one, it would have the potential to end like it did the last time. If one looks at Poland and smaller Eastern/Central European states there is a regularity - we lose independence together and regain it together - like it happened in 1918 and 1989-1991 period. The goal should be protecting it together.

 

Still, I don't see any basis for 'switching sides' by some NATO members in case of Russo-Turkish war (or whatever it would be called). Next to nothing to gain, a lot to lose.

Edited December 3, 2015 by urbanoid

[urbanoid]

Sooo, we have Russia saying that invitation of Montenegro may end with (political, I presume) confrontation between the West and Moscow, apparently they are also mulling introducing economic santions.

 

Peskov (Kremlin's spokesman): 'Further NATO expansion to the East of Europe will force Russia to protect her security interests'.

Zakharova (MFA's spokeswoman): NATO's decision may have consequences from our side. Initiative of Montenegro joining NATO bears the risk of confrontation'.

Ozerov (Committee of Defense and Security or sth. like that): 'All military-technical cooperation with Podgorica will be suspended'.

 

Really, makes me wonder why would they care so much.

[Panzermann]

What will Montenegro or Serbia really gain from joining NATO?

The only thing I can see is that then the politicians can cut defence spending, because in NATO it is someone else's problem to defend their country.

[ink]

Still, I don't see any basis for 'switching sides' by some NATO members in case of Russo-Turkish war (or whatever it would be called). Next to nothing to gain, a lot to lose.

Ain't nobody switching sides. The very idea us laughable.

[bojan]

The only thing I can see is that then the politicians can cut defence spending, because in NATO it is someone else's problem to defend their country.

There ain't nothing left to cut in Montenegro, and only a bit more in Serbia. And with Presevo valley and Sandzak as potential problems it would be monumentally stupid also for Serbia to do so.

[swerve]

What will Montenegro or Serbia really gain from joining NATO?

Some military aid (maybe cheap or even donated secondhand fighters), probably free air policing for Montenegro & for Serbia in crises if the Serbian AF is unable to do it. Nobody who could invade them, so no gain from the general collective defence provisions. Not a lot, in other words.

[Roman Alymov]

Fresh video from Montenegro. Note Rus flags and Putin t-shirts - probably all bussed from Belgorod

[bojan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxEHd77SIiE

[YugoManiac]

Two more from Kosovo

 

UČK, UČK, UČK...

 

 

 

Short 2015 summary

 

As you can see, things have been heating up in the Balkans over the past year. Starting with the shooting in Zvornik and UČK military excursion in Kumanovo, deterioration of relations between Serbia and Croatia, which reached its peak during the migrant crisis with the closing of borders and mutual embargo.

Anti-NATO as well as anti-Đukanović protests in Montenegro, culminating on 24 October with the night of rage and breakup of protests with the intervention of the police and special forces. Terrorist attack in Sarajevo killed two members of the Armed Forces of BiH. Attacker Enes Omeragić born in France of Bosnian origin reportedly spent some time in Syria and was associated with the members of the Wahhabi movement.

In Kosovo things have stirred up a lot in the last year and a half, almost eight years since the declaration of independence and 16 (17 this year) since the withdrawal of the Serbian army and police from Kosovo. Frustrated with the semi-independence and with the failure to join many international institutions increasing number of people are becoming disillusioned. Many are leaving Kosovo while the political situation is becoming all the more toxic. In recent months tear gas and smoke bombs became regular occurrence in parliament and as you can see from the video above opposition is becoming more aggressive

Edited January 10, 2016 by YugoManiac

[BansheeOne]

12 Feb 16

 

Macedonian Ex-Ministers Suspected of Election Fraud

 

Former ministers and senior officials are the main figures suspected of organising fraud during past elections, Macedonia's Special Prosecution has said.

Sinisa Jakov Marusic BIRN Skopje

 

Macedonia's special prosecution office has pinpointed a former interior minister and transport minister as well as the secretary general of the government as the main suspects for organizing electoral fraud during the polls in 2013.

 

The police minister at that time was Gordana Jankuloska, the transport minister was Mile Janakieski and the government secretary general is Kiril Bozinovski, all members of the government of VMRO DPMNE leader Nikola Gruevski who stepped down as Prime Minister in January as part of the EU-brokered crisis agreement.

 

“The suspects....created a group tasked with committing crimes against the elections,” deputy special prosecutor Fatime Fetai said without referring to their names in Skopje.

 

Their motive, according to the prosecution, was “to maintain the [their ruling] party in power” as well as gaining “direct privileges for themselves,” Fetai said.

 

The suspects in the investigation that the Prosecution has called “Titanic” are suspected of several offences, from criminal association to violation of electoral rights, violation of the freedom of voters, bribery during elections and voting, destruction of electoral materials and misuse of assets during election campaigns.

 

The Special Prosecution said it is also investigating five judges and four members of the State Electoral Commission who were active in 2013.

 

One person with dual Macedonian and Albanian citizenship has been detained, the prosecution said. Media reports speculate that he is a political leader of ethnic Macedonians in Albania, Edmond Temelko.

 

Temelko was brought into connection with the scandal after news cameras in 2013 caught ethnic Macedonians from the rural region of Pustec in Albania voting in the Macedonian capital as Skopje residents, presumably using fake IDs.In addition, the recently formed Special Prosecution has asked for eight people to be placed in detention.

 

The prosecution said recordings of wiretapped conversations as well as other evidence that it had gathered clearly indicate these persons' involvement in election fraud, which will have to be proven in court.

 

The Chief Special Prosecutor, Katica Janeva, told the media that she did not feel intimidated by recent criminal charges and other obstructions to her work.

 

“Justice will prevail despite the hardship and the threats that come from certain political parties,” she said, adding that “even if everyone [in the country] remains silent, I will not stay silent.”

 

The charges, the first made since the formation of the Special Prosecution in the autumn, come against a backdrop of continuing crisis in Macedonia, revolving around opposition claims that Prime Minister Gruevski ordered the illegal surveillance of some 20,000 people, including his own ministers.

 

The Social Democrats started releasing batches of covertly recorded tapes last February. The opposition insists the tapes contain incriminating evidence against many senior officials, including proof of high-level corruption, the government grip’s on the judiciary, prosecution, businesses and media, politically-motivated arrests and jailings, electoral violations and even an attempted cover-up of a murder of a man by a police officer.

 

Gruevski, who has held power since 2006, and stepped down last month under an EU-brokered agreement, says the tapes were “fabricated” by unnamed foreign intelligence services and given to the opposition to destabilise the country.

 

 

http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/former-macedonian-ministers-suspected-for-election-fraud-02-12-2016

[bojan]

After Hellfire accidentally sent to Cuba we have couple of Hellfires that got sent by passenger flight from Lebanon...

 

http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/why-were-hellfire-missiles-shipped-from-beirut-aboard-a-1764708943

Edited March 15, 2016 by bojan

[Roman Alymov]

Interesting videoapeal from Crimea to Serbs: "One day Kosovo will become your Crimea"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pNpBzZt5Nlw&feature=youtu.be

[Simon Tan]

Gratuitous PanSlavism.

[ink]

Interesting videoapeal from Crimea to Serbs: "One day Kosovo will become your Crimea"

 

Er... No.

[ink]

The only thing of note in the Balkans at the moment is just how much materiel everyone in the region is selling to fuel the needs of the Syria and Yemen conflicts.

 

That and the hilarious Croatian MiG saga.

 

EDIT: typo fix.

Edited March 25, 2016 by ink