Meanwhile In Balkans...

[Ssnake]

Sure, but then that was about controlling money directly paid out by the EU. Of course they don't want the millions disappear in oligarch pockets.

[ink]

6 hours ago, Ssnake said:

Sure, but then that was about controlling money directly paid out by the EU. Of course they don't want the millions disappear in oligarch pockets.

I'm sure it won't come as much of a surprise to you that they've also been sending Vučić money for years.

[bojan]

There is one thing that EU (and US) always does - negotiate with Vucic in person about Serbia joining EU or whatever else, but by the law and constitution he is not relevant person for such talks and anything he negotiates and/or signs is actually useless in front of court of law. His role (outside wartime) is practically the same as German president, whose name  is probably unknown to anyone outside Germany.

It is such "little things" that legitimize dictators.

[Markus Becker]

On 9/27/2025 at 10:58 AM, ink said:

I guess it's good someone's paying attention.

But I think if the EU or key players therein were really shaping up to do something, there'd be a lot more stories like this.

Sorry to crush your hopes and dreams but that is from a very much not mainstream publication. Influential yes but it'll take a lot to get that into the MSM let alone state news. 

[ink]

2 hours ago, Markus Becker said:

Sorry to crush your hopes and dreams 

Don't worry, Markus, I didn't really have any 😉

Thanks for the info though.

[ink]

Italian prosecutor going after Italian citizens who paid to shoot civilians during the siege of Sarajevo

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/nov/11/milan-prosecutors-investigate-alleged-sniper-tourism-during-bosnian-war

[JWB]

Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić stated that all of Europe is preparing for war with Russia, and that, in light of these events, Serbia has found itself "between a rock and a hard place."

"As I analyze the facts, I come to the conclusion that a war between Europe and Russia is becoming increasingly obvious. These are not empty words — everyone is preparing for it. This was stated by an extremely responsible general." - Vučić noted.

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1988637484259876961

https://www.dw.com/ru/prezident-serbii-vojna-evropy-s-rossiej-stanovitsa-vse-ocevidnee/a-74711539

[ink]

44 minutes ago, JWB said:

Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić stated that all of Europe is preparing for war with Russia, and that, in light of these events, Serbia has found itself "between a rock and a hard place."

"As I analyze the facts, I come to the conclusion that a war between Europe and Russia is becoming increasingly obvious. These are not empty words — everyone is preparing for it. This was stated by an extremely responsible general." - Vučić noted.

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1988637484259876961

https://www.dw.com/ru/prezident-serbii-vojna-evropy-s-rossiej-stanovitsa-vse-ocevidnee/a-74711539

It is worth noting here, I think, that his pronouncements were never to be taken seriously, but that in the current climate - in which he is facing a serious political crisis at home and abroad - this is more the case than it ever was.

Or, tldr, he'll say anything at this point to keep his ass in that presidential chair.

[Roman Alymov]

18 hours ago, ink said:

Or, tldr, he'll say anything at this point to keep his ass in that presidential chair.

  As i have allready said, nice thing about (effective) populist politicians is they are inducators of what is really popular. So when President Vučić is speaking about futire war of Europe against Russia - yes, he is definitely doing that to save his seat, but it is also indication of what is, in his opinion at least, popular among Western political class members he is dependent on (Serbia is landlocked countrythat have no border with Russia, so he is in no need to please RF - he can't get help from Russia).

[bojan]

You did not follow him enough (lucky you) and are assuming things from still kinda rational perspective*. It is all about nationalizing NIS (oil company) that is owned by Gazprom and also nationalizing Lukoil assets in Serbia (well, "nationalizing" is wrong term, they will probably end up sold to a 3rd party, BP most likely). He will sell whole story better** to his brain-dead voters by telling them "war between Russia and NATO will erupt soon, we have to do so", and probably even imply (via tabloids and media he controls) that it was done in deal with Russia and that it will actually "help Russia"...

Also, he overblows things in media, they when they do not happen in the way he described them or at all he presents himself as a savior.

 

*I made a mistake for quite a while, until ~2019-2020 that he was just unscrupulous but +/- rational actor. He is not.

**One thing that is different to Russia is that good part of his voters actually worship him, and find excuse for everything he is doing contrary to what he said, especially regarding Russia/Ukraine. For them it is not classical Russian "Putin sucks, but there is none better than him", for them he is the best and brightest. They are probably about 1/3 of his voters pool, so about 10% of total voting population. One of his pathological characteristics is his need to be constantly "loved" by people, way more than even Tito was.

[Roman Alymov]

2 hours ago, bojan said:

You did not follow him enough (lucky you) and are assuming things from still kinda rational perspective*.

Well, probably you are right here - frankly, i do not follow him at all, except relatively rare cases of him reaching local media circles with another scandal (like when he signed the deal about embassy in Israel and then imitated he was not aware about conditions)

"The moment when US President Donald Trump informs Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic about the relocation of the Serbian Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. Vucic heard from Trump that Serbia would move the embassy to Jerusalem and was like, "What?!", went to look at the last page of the agreement, looked reproachfully at his delegation and covered his face in shock. But most likely, it is staged, Vucic just wants to have nothing to do  with that to avoid problems with Serbian Muslims. It is unlikely that he signed everything without reading it and in a package, but he really wants to show himself innocent. Moreover, as if he knew in advance where to look, he immediately opened the right page and instantly, without flipping through or searching for lines, read in half a second what he needed, like in a theater. But the performance looks funny." 

P.S. So quite likely my mistake is considering President Vučić as sort of "Serbian Lukashenko" (self-serving, but very reasonable political player) while what you tell is like "Serbian Yanukovich"

Edited November 13 by Roman Alymov

[alejandro_]

When I came across this piece of news I decided to wait to see if more media platforms confirmed the story... 

Wealthy foreigners ‘paid £80k for weekend safaris to kill civilians’ in Sarajevo
Italy investigates allegations ‘war tourists’ paid Serbian forces to pick off Bosnians ‘for fun’ — with more charged to shoot children

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/11/11/italy-investigation-siege-of-sarajevo-bosnian-war/

[sunday]

According to a Spaniard that served with the FFL in Sarajevo, the source is very suspicious.

The Spaniard in question:
 

 

[Stefan Kotsch]

Willard: "Shit...charging a man with murder in this place is like handing out speeding tickets at the Indy 500"

[alejandro_]

Thank you sunday, I have translated the comment made by the FLL veteran -he is a character, I follow him in twitter-.

All of this stems from the disinformation campaign launched for rather obscure reasons by a self-proclaimed Bosnian militiaman and brigade leader, Edin Subasic, who tortured Bosnian Serb prisoners—a shining example of military morality. Edin Subasic, of the "BH Intelligence Service"—which wasn't really an intelligence service at the time, but rather an embryonic entity, sponsored by the CIA and one of the first PMCs, called MPRI (which also participated on the Croatian side in Krahina)—wasn't a military man in the traditional sense, because the Bosnian army didn't exist. Instead, it consisted of militias and brigades, composed and commanded mainly of criminals and people who, since Tito's death, had been involved in all sorts of trafficking. This hardly inspires confidence.

I spent 18 months in Bosnia and Herzegovina, between Sarajevo and Igman. I was the first NATO soldier to enter Sarajevo, escorting General André Soubirou, commander of the FRR, after breaking the siege of Sarajevo in December 1995. I know a thing or two about the subject.

- I witnessed two false flag attacks: the Sarajevo market attack and the bread line attack. In the second, as an expert in anti-aircraft and anti-aircraft weapons, I participated in the second UN investigation. In both cases, it was proven that the Bosnians were responsible. In one, they buried an explosive device, and in the other, the trajectory showed that the 120mm mortar shells were fired from the Bosnian side.

- I don't believe anything a Bosnian "soldier," a former criminal who participated in war crimes and whose past has been fabricated, says. Someone who conspired to kill his compatriots to provoke a NATO intervention, which they achieved in '95. - What I did see were Bosnian militias composed of Afghan, Algerian, and Pakistani fighters waging jihad and razing Serbian villages.

I suppose that if you had left the PTT Building back then, you would be much better informed about certain things that happened there. If, as you say, you knew about the rumor, your obligation as a journalist would have been to investigate it and not dedicate yourself now to confirming the statements of a criminal.

[sunday]

Glad to help!

[alejandro_]

Dayton for Bosnia 30 years later

The 30th anniversary of the Dayton Accords, which ended the bloody war in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) in 1995, is approaching. They were a significant milestone in the region's history, but three decades later, the question arises: how successful was the peace model enshrined in the Dayton Accords?

Milan Lazovic, Program Manager of the Russian International Affairs Council

The Dayton Accords were initialed on November 21, 1995, in the US city of the same name, and signed later in December 1995 in Paris. The document provided for the creation of two autonomous entities: the Muslim-Croat Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Republika Srpska. The primary goal was to end the violence and create conditions for peaceful coexistence between different ethnic groups. Separately, the agreement established the Brčko District, under international administration, and established the position of High Representative for BiH. During the first years after the signing of the agreements, BiH was able to achieve certain successes.

- The country's infrastructure was restored and the return of refugees began.
- The international community, including NATO and the EU, actively supported efforts to stabilize the region.
- The economy began to gain momentum and investment was on the rise.

However, the model established by the Dayton Accords proved to be flawed. The ethnically based political system led to segregation and political instability. Instead of fostering integration, it entrenched ethnic divisions, making it difficult to form a unified national identity. Political parties often act in the interests of their own ethnic groups, which leads to the blocking of reforms and political paralysis.

Furthermore, corruption and economic problems remain serious challenges for the country. Unemployment remains high, and young people continue to leave the country in search of better opportunities abroad.

Today, BiH faces numerous challenges that call into question its long-term stability. Ethnic divisions remain deep, and a political system based on ethnic quotas hinders effective decision-making. Nationalist rhetoric remains prevalent in political life, undermining trust between different ethnic groups.

In recent years, separatist tendencies have been on the rise, particularly in Republika Srpska, whose leaders are openly discussing the possibility of secession from BiH. However, it's important to understand that Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik, who until recently served as President of Republika Srpska, used this rhetoric to bolster his position in response to politically motivated accusations from federal authorities in Sarajevo. Currently, Republika Srpska authorities have agreed to hold presidential elections in the Republic of Serbia, and Dodik has announced his resignation. It's worth noting that all of these events took place against the backdrop of a political crisis, during which Sarajevo authorities convicted Dodik and demanded his removal from politics. The Bosnian Serb leader himself has declared his commitment to preserving the Dayton Accords and the territorial integrity of BiH, while guaranteeing the security and sovereignty of Republika Srpska within a unified country.

Assessing the success of the Dayton Accords 30 years later, it can be said that they achieved their primary goal—ending war and violence. However, they failed to create a stable and prosperous country. The model embodied in the agreements proved too complex and ineffective, leading to political instability, ethnic segregation, and economic problems.

The Dayton Accords were certainly a necessary compromise at the time, but they failed to address the fundamental problems of Bosnian society. They froze the conflict rather than resolved it.

At this point, it seems appropriate to reform the Dayton model for BiH in some way, given the fact that the 1995 agreements remain the cementing foundation for peace, stability and prosperity in the country.

The most pressing issue today remains the position and appointment process of the High Representative. The position is currently held by Christian Schmidt, who has not received the necessary approval from the UN Security Council. His legitimacy is being challenged by Russia, China, and Republika Srpska. According to media reports, he may soon leave his post.

To achieve long-term peace and stability, the country needs profound political and economic reforms. First and foremost, reform of the political system must become more inclusive and effective. This could include changes to the electoral system, a reduction in ethnic quotas, and a strengthening of central authority. Reconciliation between different ethnic groups must be promoted, which requires efforts in education, culture, and the media. Finally, platforms for dialogue and cooperation are needed to overcome historical grievances and build a common future.

Milan Lazovic, Program Manager, Russian International Affairs Council

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/8195112?from=author_2

[urbanoid]

14 minutes ago, alejandro_ said:

However, the model established by the Dayton Accords proved to be flawed. The ethnically based political system led to segregation and political instability. Instead of fostering integration, it entrenched ethnic divisions, making it difficult to form a unified national identity. Political parties often act in the interests of their own ethnic groups, which leads to the blocking of reforms and political paralysis.

And any alternative to the above was... unrealistic, probably. Maybe leading to more hosilities/civil war/whatever. 

[ink]

4 hours ago, urbanoid said:

And any alternative to the above was... unrealistic, probably. Maybe leading to more hosilities/civil war/whatever. 

Fully agree. However, the plan also included no mechanism by which Bosnia would ever be free of the international presence, which is essentially baked in. That might not have been a problem in 1995, when it looked reasonable that history had ended and Bosnia would one day be a member of the EU, WTO, and Euro-Atlantic structures. Today, thirty years on, it's a bit more problematic.

[ink]

I'd just like to add that since the 2000s - 2010s, it seems that the international (read: US and German) consensus on the Balkans (mostly Bosnia, Kosovo, and Serbia... Though previously also Macedonia and Montenegro) has been to install/support corrupt rulers for extended periods of time in order to extract resources.

I wonder what the next phase of that consensus will be.

[Sinistar]

there were signals during that timeframe- the george w. bush / war on terror era - articles in think tanks and certain journals appearing discussing forward looking plans about the minerals and energy capacity of a certain region in eastern europe which is the subject of a hot war going on right now

 

all the francis fukiyama-george soros - clintonian humanisms whether they intended for it or not is cover for certain actors in their long term objectives 

at that time this sort of looks far fetched and too theoretical with no concrete path of how it would look to actually get there

Edited November 19 by Sinistar

[alejandro_]

If Bosnia is a non working country/failed state, what is the problem in doing a referendum that allows Republika Srpska to become independent or join Serbia? 

[bojan]

Muslims and their backers, as in 1992.

[ink]

1 hour ago, alejandro_ said:

If Bosnia is a non working country/failed state, what is the problem in doing a referendum that allows Republika Srpska to become independent or join Serbia? 

While a referendum for Republika Srpska to become independent would likely succeed, that wouldn't make Republika Srpska a viable state. The Brčko distrikt was deliberately left in a state of political limbo - essentially to stop Republika Srpska from quitting the 'union'.

Croatia has, in the past (as in back when unilateral declarations of independence were all the rage), said it would move troops into Brčko on the same day as Republika Srpska declared independence. If I'm not mistaken, NATO backed that announcement at the time.

Anyway, all this is besides the point. The International Community™️ rules Bosnia - nobody's going to be holding any kind of referendum.

[sunday]

One of the rules of the vaunted "rules-based international order" is the principle of self-determination so loved by Woodrow Wilson.

After WWI it was deemed not compatible with realpolitik when applied to Hungarians or Germans that were citizens of the Austro-Hungarian or German Empires. Currently it is not applied to Serbs nor Russians that were citizens of Yugoslavia or the USSR.