Meanwhile In Balkans...

[Markus Becker]

44 minutes ago, ink said:

Everything you say is true, but consider also the difference in reaction to Maidan in 2014 (even before it turned violent) and these Serbian protests.

 

It is not about what is done but who does it! Someone who is talking back to the EU is instantly designated The Enemy and getting bad press at every opportunity while thoses who keep their mouths shut can do all sorts of things with little to no reaction by the EU/MSM. Like builing a fence to stop illegals(by PIS thus bad) and the authorizing the use of live ammo against illegals(by PO and thus not worth an outcry). 

 

[ink]

1 hour ago, Markus Becker said:

 

It is not about what is done but who does it! Someone who is talking back to the EU is instantly designated The Enemy and getting bad press at every opportunity while thoses who keep their mouths shut can do all sorts of things with little to no reaction by the EU/MSM. Like builing a fence to stop illegals(by PIS thus bad) and the authorizing the use of live ammo against illegals(by PO and thus not worth an outcry). 

 

So... Like... What would you say is even the point of all those rules, laws, principles, ideals, values, etc., etc., if they're just applied selectively like they are by Russia, China, Iran, and others?

[urbanoid]

1 hour ago, Markus Becker said:

 

It is not about what is done but who does it! Someone who is talking back to the EU is instantly designated The Enemy and getting bad press at every opportunity while thoses who keep their mouths shut can do all sorts of things with little to no reaction by the EU/MSM. Like builing a fence to stop illegals(by PIS thus bad) and the authorizing the use of live ammo against illegals(by PO and thus not worth an outcry). 

 

Not just 'not worth an outcry', but even 'worth visiting by Ursula von der Leyen'.

https://x.com/vonderleyen/status/1962113358561218884

https://x.com/vonderleyen/status/1962101936343191874

 

Edited September 2 by urbanoid

[mandeb48]

Question from someone who lives on the opposite side of the globe and has no idea about the issue.

Who is the opposition to the regime (electorally speaking)?

Is the electoral system free and strong enough to allow for a change of power through the ballot box assuming a popular independent candidate emerges?

[ink]

34 minutes ago, mandeb48 said:

Question from someone who lives on the opposite side of the globe and has no idea about the issue.

Who is the opposition to the regime (electorally speaking)?

The students have promised to form an electoral list - a sort of coalition of independent candidates - for when the elections are called.

34 minutes ago, mandeb48 said:

Is the electoral system free and strong enough to allow for a change of power through the ballot box assuming a popular independent candidate emerges?

Nobody really knows. There are two possible outcomes*:

1. Incredibly unlikely: the student list blows away the ruling elite at the ballot box in spite of all the vote-rigging that takes place and, under pressure from international actors, the ruling party agrees to a peaceful handover of power (and likely flees the country).

2. Incredibly depressing: the student list blows away the ruling elite at the ballot box in spite of all the vote rigging that takes place, and the ruling elite simply declares a victory with fake voting numbers (a la Lukashenka), and that fake result is supported/recognised by the US and EU.

 

* Assuming, of course, that elections are ever held again 🙃

Edited September 2 by ink

[urbanoid]

If anyone's interested, that's the take of Polish OSW (Centre for Eastern Studies), a think tank 100% financed from our state budget:

Quote

2025-08-20

Protests in Serbia: government provocations, escalation of violence

In recent days, there has been a significant escalation of violence during the nearly 10-month-long anti-government protests in Serbia. Mass demonstrations erupted following the collapse of the Novi Sad train station and then escalated into a nationwide revolt against Aleksandar Vučić's government. On August 12th, in Vrbas and Bačka Palanka, demonstrators were attacked with flares, stones, and bottles by aggressive hooligans linked to the government, among other things. These events sparked violent clashes between the two sides in subsequent days, including in Novi Sad, Valjevo, Belgrade, Kragujevac, Niš, and Čačak. In some cases, police and gendarmerie remained passive toward demonstrators and pro-government militias, while in others, they forcibly suppressed the protests. Nearly a hundred demonstrators and dozens of police officers were injured in the clashes. The largest confrontations took place in front of the local offices of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), and in Valjevo its office was set on fire. 

The increase in aggression by law enforcement agencies is the result of increasingly brutal actions by the authorities aimed at pacifying the protests that have been ongoing since last year. The escalation of the government's violence has also led to a radicalization of the demands of demonstrators frustrated by the government's refusal to call early elections.

Comment 

Attacks on peaceful demonstrations demonstrate the authorities' growing determination to pacify and discredit the protest movement. Pro-government militias are deliberately provoking attacks to bolster the narrative of demonstrators as "terrorists" seeking to overthrow the constitutional order. The government's attempts to portray the protests as a "color revolution" inspired by external sources have so far failed. According to research by the CRTA center, the majority of Serbian citizens do not believe in the government's conspiracy theories (54% of respondents reject the "color revolution" narrative). Provocations against demonstrators are aimed at changing public opinion, as, according to CRTA, as many as 64% of citizens support the protests, and nearly 60% declare trust in their participants.

The clashes on Serbian streets are also a sign of the protesters' growing desperation. The demonstrations, which have been ongoing since November 2024, have been peaceful until now, but with the intensification of provocations from pro-government militias, demonstrators began to respond. Despite the large number of protesters, the students failed to achieve their most important demands, such as the government publishing full documentation of the Novi Sad train station renovation or holding those responsible for the construction disaster accountable ( see " Students vs. the System – Protest Strategies in Serbia "). The escalating street violence is becoming a pretext for the repression announced by President Vučić. The government-controlled prosecutor's office has announced the use of all available powers against groups "seeking anarchy in Serbia." Therefore, an even greater increase in aggression, combined with more frequent provocations by pro-government demonstrators, seems a realistic scenario.

Due to declining support, President Vučić is delaying the announcement of early parliamentary elections, as protesters are demanding. Until now, elections in Serbia have been held at dates favorable to the politician who controls the SNS party. Although Vučić declared in May that early elections would be held, they have not yet been called. This likely stems from the calculation that postponing them would allow him to silence the protests, discredit the demonstrators, and maintain control of the state. According to a CRTA survey, every second person in the country views the president's performance negatively, and 51% of respondents are dissatisfied with the government's performance. Removing Vučić and his party from power will be a difficult task, however, as the president still controls the media and numerous state institutions.

https://www.osw.waw.pl/pl/publikacje/analizy/2025-08-20/protesty-w-serbii-prowokacje-wladz-eskalacja-przemocy

[ink]

32 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

If anyone's interested, that's the take of Polish OSW (Centre for Eastern Studies), a think tank 100% financed from our state budget:

https://www.osw.waw.pl/pl/publikacje/analizy/2025-08-20/protesty-w-serbii-prowokacje-wladz-eskalacja-przemocy

Someone should tell them that we're Południe not Wschód 😉

But anyway, that's not a terrible analysis, but also not terribly in-depth.

[urbanoid]

4 minutes ago, ink said:

Someone should tell them that we're Południe not Wschód 😉

But anyway, that's not a terrible analysis, but also not terribly in-depth.

Vucic is kinda 'East' though.  

'The Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) was established in 1990 in Warsaw as a public institution. It was created to meet democratic Poland’s demand for analytical research on the processes that had occurred in the Soviet Union, and later in the states that emerged following its collapse. At present, the OSW’s portfolio includes Russia, Eastern and Central Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia, the Balkans, Germany, the Baltic and Nordic states, China, Turkey and Israel. In addition, we carry out research focused on specific sectors, for example the EU’s energy policy, transport, trade and digital connectivity in Central Europe, as well as on European security.'

https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/o-nas

They started with 'Eastern' (post-Soviet/post-communist) area of expertise, but it was later expanded:

https://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ośrodek_Studiów_Wschodnich

Quote

Initially, OSW analyzed only the situation in the post-Soviet area. In the mid-1990s, research expanded to include the Balkans and Central European countries. In 2005, the Center's analysts' focus expanded to include German affairs, in 2012 to Turkey and Northern Europe, and after 2016 to China and Israel.

[mandeb48]

1 hour ago, ink said:

The students have promised to form an electoral list - a sort of coalition of independent candidates - for when the elections are called.

 

Are there no other political parties with a chance of winning an election, or are they all equally corrupt?

[ink]

25 minutes ago, mandeb48 said:

 

Are there no other political parties with a chance of winning an election,

Short answer: no.

25 minutes ago, mandeb48 said:

or are they all equally corrupt?

Long answer: also no.

In other words, there are no other political parties worthy of winning an election, but some outliers may join/be allowed to join a student-led coalition.

Vučić (and his Western paymasters) have spent years letting/helping opposition parties fall apart and crumble into dust.

And yet, it should be added, despite a ballot devoid of any serious opposition parties, he had to pull out all the stops to rig the last elections (he for sure would have lost Belgrade, for example).

Edited September 2 by ink

[Markus Becker]

17 hours ago, urbanoid said:

If anyone's interested, that's the take of Polish OSW (Centre for Eastern Studies), a think tank 100% financed from our state budget:

https://www.osw.waw.pl/pl/publikacje/analizy/2025-08-20/protesty-w-serbii-prowokacje-wladz-eskalacja-przemocy

Far more detailed information than I have seen in the German state media. 

[Markus Becker]

 

What's up with this? You can not import full auto guns into the USA in the first place and there are even restrictions on semis. Did they forget to 'donate' for the reelection of President V? 

[blatob]

Personally, more important facts are that the commanders of SAJ ( police anti terrorist unity) and para brigade had been removed. As the SAJ commander said, I paraphrase, "President does not want any unit in arm forces to not be under his direct command". This will probably see these unit used directly to attack protesters, or shoot at them. And finalizing what is basically Coup d'etat from within,since he is overstepping his constitutional role again, for who knows what time.

It happened after one more day of violent and provoked attack of police on the peaceful demonstrations and police storming campus in Novi Sad holding the people tied on the ground or locked into the University amphitheaters for processing.

Whole thing reminded strongly of the infamous Raid in 1942. 

After the night of Friday, 6th, s=dozens spent CS and CN cartridges had been found around campus, gas so thick that it had seeped in all nearby buildings. Police used vehicles to charge into lines of people or try to push them off road. I ma talking about veering off the path to strike pedestrians. For the first time since Miloshevic and  March of 1991 rubber rounds were fired directly at the mass.

Edited September 7 by blatob

[JWB]

In Moldova, more than one hundred people were detained (74 of them for up to 72 hours), as part of an investigation into an alleged Russia-backed plan to incite mass riots and destabilize the country around a critical parliamentary election - Victor Furtună, Moldova's Chief Prosecutor from the Office for Combating Organized Crime and Special Cases.

https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1970400935449927890

 

[ink]

16 hours ago, JWB said:

In Moldova, more than one hundred people were detained (74 of them for up to 72 hours), as part of an investigation into an alleged Russia-backed plan to incite mass riots and destabilize the country around a critical parliamentary election - Victor Furtună, Moldova's Chief Prosecutor from the Office for Combating Organized Crime and Special Cases.

https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1970400935449927890

 

Interesting!

However, it falls upon me, it seems, to point out that Moldova isn't in the Balkans 😎

[Ssnake]

On a planetary scale, it is. 😛

[JWB]

6 hours ago, ink said:

Interesting!

However, it falls upon me, it seems, to point out that Moldova isn't in the Balkans 😎

That depends on who says what:

https://www.thoughtco.com/where-are-the-balkan-states-4070249

[bojan]

Formal geographical boundary for Balkan peninsula are Ljubljanica, Sava and Danube rivers, so by that measure Romania is not part of Balkans, but Greece is. Part of Slovenia, Croatia and Serbia is also not.

Culturally, both Greece (not mentioned in that list) and Hungary fit, as does Slovenia. Possibly also at least part of Austria (There is Austrian joke that Balkan starts in Vienna).

Politically it has varied through years.

But never before have I seen Moldova listed in Balkans... 

[ink]

2 hours ago, JWB said:

That depends on who says what:

https://www.thoughtco.com/where-are-the-balkan-states-4070249

Well, clearly not everyone's opinion is valid 😄

Only kidding, I realise they get lumped in with us sometimes, but I personally find it a bit ridiculous.

Romania is in the Balkans (barely), but part of their country is on the Balkan peninsula, and there are some cultural (e.g. Orthodox Christianity), historical (legacy of Ottoman, Hapsburg and communist rule), and linguistic (there's something known as the Balkan Sprachbund)... So, I suppose, by that measure, Moldova must be in too.

Anyway, the main point is it was a tongue-in-cheek comment. Hence the smiley.

[Markus Becker]

This is the first article I have seen in Germany that goes in depth on Serbia.

 

War against free media

Serbia: the Venezuela of Europe

 

Aleksandar Vučić rules his country with an iron fist. Serbia's president has no political agenda; he's concerned with maintaining power. To achieve this, he's dismantling the last independent media outlets – with the support of British profiteers.

It's about power and politics. It's about greed and corruption. It's about betrayal and idealism. And it's about lithium, the lightest metal in the world—and the most valuable.

It's the stuff thrillers are made of.

But it's not a novel. This story is real. It takes place in real life, and it's happening right now, right before our eyes—even if we don't notice it because we're not looking.

Every thriller depicts the battle between good and evil. The hero isn't always good, and the villain isn't always evil. But generally, the roles are clearly assigned so that the audience doesn't get confused.

Chapter 1
The Good
Dragan Šolak is the prototype of an entrepreneur and self-made billionaire. In 1990, at just 26 years old, he founded VANS, one of the first film and TV production companies in what was then Yugoslavia. Ten years later, he established a local cable television network in his hometown of Kragujevac, in present-day Serbia. With foreign venture capital, he turned the small network into a fairly large company: the United Group. In 2003, the group became the first operator in Serbia to introduce high-speed broadband.

One of the most important subsidiaries of the United Group is United Media. It operates, among other things, the television channel N1. The cable channel was founded in 2014 and broadcasts news around the clock. N1 is based in Belgrade and has sister stations in Ljubljana (Slovenia), Sarajevo (Bosnia and Herzegovina), and Zagreb (Croatia).

The channel family is enormously popular throughout Southeastern Europe—especially in Serbia, where it's practically the last remaining non-governmental source of information. In its target region, the former Yugoslavia, N1 is available on cable everywhere (or rather, was available; we'll come to that in a moment).

Over the years, Šolak had several high-profile investors at United Group, including George Soros and, most recently, the giant US private equity firm KKR (which until recently also held a large stake in Axel Springer Publishing). There were never any problems—at least none were ever leaked out, which is saying something in the international media industry.

Naturally, all investors thoroughly examined Šolak and the United Group—a process known in the investment business as "due diligence." There were never any objections. The investors invested large sums, stayed for extended periods, and then sold their shares again—at a profit and without a single bad word.

This went on for 25 years, and everyone was happy: Šolak, the investors of the United Group, and the viewers of N1. Until now.

Chapter 2
The Evil One
Aleksandar Vučić's life is entirely political. In 1993, at just 23, he joined the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) (ultra-nationalist even by Serbian standards), for which he was elected as a member of the National Assembly that same year. Two years later, he became the party's general secretary. After the SRS won local elections in Belgrade in 1996, he became the well-paid director of a municipal sports and cultural center.

Being determines consciousness.

During the Kosovo War, Vučić became Minister of Information under President Slobodan Milošević. Among his first acts in office, he introduced fines for journalists critical of the government and banned foreign television stations. Until 2008, he was a staunch opponent of any rapprochement between Serbia and the EU.

As popular support for the SRS dwindled, he switched parties and political positions: He assumed a high-ranking position in the new "Serbian Progressive Party" (SNS), which advocates Serbia's accession to the EU. Since 2014, the EU has officially listed Serbia as a candidate for membership.

In 2012, now party leader, Vučić became Minister of Defense, then Prime Minister in 2014, and finally President in 2017. Serbia's constitution prohibits the head of state from holding any further political office, but Vučić ignored the provision and remained chairman of his party for a long time.

Power for the sake of power
Vučić gradually transformed the country's politics into an authoritarian regime. When an opposition leader was beaten half to death with an iron bar in November 2018, protests against the government raged across the country for several weeks. Opposition parties boycotted the 2020 parliamentary elections.

That same year, Vučić passed a law restricting the activities of NGOs and independent media. Also in 2020, he first imposed curfews and then – without involving parliament – a state of emergency due to the coronavirus pandemic. Whether this was unconstitutional remains controversial.

Even his opponents, however, don't accuse Vučić of ideological motives. The man is simply a technocrat of power: his goal is to maintain power. He places loyalists and supporters at all levels of government and in all areas of society. Even in local elections in small towns, there should, if possible, be no winners who do not come from the party – and from the president's entourage.

In terms of content, his policy is, to say the least, flexible. While Serbia remains a candidate for EU membership, Vučić had no problem participating in the large military parade in Beijing a few weeks ago to mark the 80th anniversary of China's victory over Japan in World War II. He also met with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping on the occasion.

Last year, Serbia’s president openly stated that his government “of course” sells weapons and ammunition to both NATO countries and Russia.

Chapter 3
The Media
As flexible as he is in his political positions, Aleksandar Vučić is just as relentless in his approach to critics.

In November 2024, a train station canopy—reconstructed with Chinese assistance—collapsed, killing 16 people. The accident, widely blamed on botched construction due to corruption, sparked the largest mass protests in Serbia since the breakup of Yugoslavia. Hundreds of thousands of demonstrators across the country denounced corruption at all levels of the state, largely controlled by Vučić's party.

The protests initially remained peaceful. But since the summer of 2025, violence has become increasingly violent. Opponents accuse Vučić of inciting paramilitary thugs against demonstrators.

This is where N1 comes into play.

This is the country's last remaining major independent television station, and it has long been a thorn in the government's side. N1 Editor-in-Chief Igor Božić explains the focus of his editorial team: "We investigate what's going wrong in the government. We deal with corruption and crime – and with people who are under pressure from the government and therefore need help."

Therefore, N1 and its employees have been under considerable pressure for a long time.

The ruling party incessantly calls the station's editors "traitors" and "foreign mercenaries." President Vučić himself called them "liars" and even "terrorists." On social media, N1 staffers are not only subjected to vicious insults every day, but also regularly receive massive physical threats. The station has been warned by letter that its offices will be blown up and its journalists and their families will be killed.

When Aleksandar Vučić was hospitalized with cardiovascular problems in 2019, presidential office officials, along with pro-regime media, seriously accused an N1 journalist of endangering the president's health by investigating corruption allegations. Tens of thousands of leaflets were distributed urging N1 to leave Serbia.

Dependent media industry
Serbia's state apparatus is the largest financier and advertising client of the vast majority of Serbian media – which consequently, with very few remaining exceptions, serve openly as the president's mouthpiece.

At the end of Vučić's last election campaign, the country's seven largest daily newspapers all appeared with an identical front page: the initials "A" and "V" and the campaign slogan "Faster. Stronger. Better. Serbia. Vote for Vučić!"
Serbia's largest TV station is owned by an old companion and ally of Vučić. Accordingly, "TV Pink" reports exclusively positively about the president.
Ringier acquired several media brands in Serbia from Axel Springer Publishing a few years ago. The Swiss immediately demonstrated typical Swiss commercial acumen: their newspapers quickly and completely aligned themselves with the government's policies.
All that remains are N1, the broadcaster Nova S, the daily newspaper "Danas," and the weekly newspaper "Radar." They all report critically on the government, and they all belong to United Media. The company is something like a small Gallic village in Serbia's media Rome. And remember: It's a subsidiary of the United Group.

The Serbian website and the N1 app are constantly subjected to cyberattacks. Nevertheless, the station continues to report daily on news events in Serbia—including protests, demonstrations, and the growing dissatisfaction of citizens with the government. "Not everyone likes that," says N1 Editor-in-Chief Božić.

That's probably the understatement of the year.

Chapter 4
The Great Intrigue
In his search for a way to silence Serbia's last independent media outlet, President Vučić has apparently found it. As always in such situations, power and money are intertwined.

Power is represented by Telekom Srbija, Serbia's largest internet, TV, and landline provider, and it is majority-owned by the state. Critics see the company as the most important tool Vučić is using to expand his control over the media landscape and suppress critical voices.

Telekom Serbia has acquired more and more private cable network operators in recent years. Shortly thereafter, all of them terminated their contracts with N1. The critical channel is no longer available on any of these cable networks. Nevertheless, N1 remains enormously popular, with viewers increasingly accessing it online.

The financial side also has a name: BC Partners. This is a large private equity firm based in London. Franz Müntefering would probably call it a "locust"—and quite rightly so. It recently acquired a majority stake in the United Group from KKR.

Unlike all other majority investors in the past 25 years, BC Partners launched a veritable war against the company's founder and CEO, Dragan Šolak. The Londoners used harsh tactics to push him to the margins of his own company. Šolak is fighting back, wanting to protect his life's work, and has sued BC Partners. The dispute will go to the Commercial Court in mid-October. But until a verdict is reached, the British are creating facts. For example, they ousted Šolak and immediately installed a new CEO at the United Group.

The man certainly doesn't have to fear the accusation that he might be interested in independent journalism: He recently spoke on the phone with the director of Telekom Srbija. The international investigative platform "Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project" intercepted the conversation, so we know what was discussed.

The dismissal of the managing director of United Media was discussed.

The director of Telekom Srbija emphasized that President Vučić wanted to get rid of the woman as quickly as possible. The CEO of the United Group ridiculed the woman (after all, she was the managing director of his company's most important subsidiary) and promised to replace her as soon as possible – "as we discussed." After that, N1 could, quote, "be brought down."

The United Group neither denies the authenticity of the intercepted conversation nor a single quote. It merely criticizes the fact that the conversation was recorded without authorization.

Why, why?
The connection is clear at first glance, the respective motives perhaps only at second glance.

N1 is the only major remaining independent TV station in Serbia. It is owned by the media company United Media, and United Media's CEO protects her journalists who are critical of the government.

United Media is a subsidiary of the United Group, which has so far resisted political pressure from President Aleksandar Vučić's camp. However, some time ago, the United Group acquired new majority shareholders from England, and they are now clearly no longer focusing on independent journalism, but rather on good relations with the regime.

It's not too far-fetched a theory, assuming this will pay off for the savvy London-based profiteers. The intercepted phone call already provides a hint of how this might happen. The director of Telekom Serbia is very interested in "Shoppster." It's an e-commerce platform owned by the United Group.

Let's imagine: How satisfied would the new CEO of the United Group be if the state-owned and therefore almost infinitely solvent Telekom Srbija were willing to buy "Shoppster" from him for much more than the platform is worth? What do you think, dear readers? Would English locusts even give up an independent TV station for that? In any case, the phone call between the director of Telekom Srbija and the CEO of the United Group ends with the sentence: "We'll see you at the club."

Everyone can now guess what kind of “club” is meant here.

Chapter 5
The EU and lithium
Lithium is the lightest metal in the world—and the most sought-after. The element is extremely rare, but in high demand—because it is the key ingredient in electric car batteries.

The world's largest lithium producers are Australia, Chile, and China. The EU needs vast quantities of lithium for its plans to completely switch to electric mobility, but has so far been dependent on imports. There are only a few lithium deposits in Europe; one is located in the Jadar Valley in western Serbia.

So the EU concluded an agreement with Serbia to mine the metal on a large scale in 2024. In one fell swoop, Serbia became one of the EU's most important partners—not because of its particularly large trade volume, but because of its particularly valuable commodity.

And lo and behold: Since the signing of the lithium agreement, there has been hardly any criticism of Aleksandar Vučić from official EU bodies. Even his pro-Russian diplomacy, which had previously always been a thorn in the side of the pro-Ukraine Eurocrats, is now only dutifully reprimanded at best.

And Brussels is even less interested in media freedom in Serbia.

epilogue
Serbia today is something like the Venezuela of Europe.

In Venezuela, the ruling clan has nationalized organized crime, there is no free media, and the country has oil. In Serbia, corruption is rampant, the free media is being razed, and the country has lithium.

Anyone who sees certain similarities may not be entirely wrong.

[ink]

On 9/25/2025 at 3:16 PM, Markus Becker said:

This is the first article I have seen in Germany that goes in depth on Serbia.

I guess it's good someone's paying attention.

But I think if the EU or key players therein were really shaping up to do something, there'd be a lot more stories like this.

[urbanoid]

I wonder if Euro elites are rationalizing to themselves (rightly or wrongly) that either they do what they are doing or the only other option for Serbia is going full pro-Russian, so it's better to have 'our son of a bitch' in place. Then again such rationalizations may be a self-fulfilling prophecy in some cases. 

[ink]

1 hour ago, urbanoid said:

I wonder if Euro elites are rationalizing to themselves (rightly or wrongly) that either they do what they are doing or the only other option for Serbia is going full pro-Russian, so it's better to have 'our son of a bitch' in place. Then again such rationalizations may be a self-fulfilling prophecy in some cases. 

That's not a bad theory. And we can only theorise, because so much of the key information is just not available.

My pet theory is that, from the point of view of the EU elites, events simply got out of their control. Just like the people of Serbia, they got cooked like that frog that doesn't feel the water getting warmer.

Now we're at a point where the options for any kind of real action are severely limited.

Meanwhile, the EU elite isn't united enough to take any of the drastic action that would now be necessary. For example, it would be a big deal to the current regime if key people (businessmen, politicians, gangsters) were placed under individual sanctions, but that's a huge step for the EU and there would have to be a sweeping consensus on the need for that. We are very far from that point right now.

[Ssnake]

I don't think anyone in top EU circles ever had anything under control, or realisticcally believed that they do. They deal with the current government, corrupt as it may be, and they'll try to deal with the next. Whether they will be given a chance, who knows. The idea of  Vucic dangling from the strands of Brussels puppetmasters is ludicrous. They don't want to be seen openly interfering with internal affairs, but are otherwise paralyzed. People in Sebia attribute way too much capability to Brussels.

[ink]

4 hours ago, Ssnake said:

I don't think anyone in top EU circles ever had anything under control, or realisticcally believed that they do. They deal with the current government, corrupt as it may be, and they'll try to deal with the next. Whether they will be given a chance, who knows. The idea of  Vucic dangling from the strands of Brussels puppetmasters is ludicrous. They don't want to be seen openly interfering with internal affairs, but are otherwise paralyzed. People in Sebia attribute way too much capability to Brussels.

Maybe that's true, but I think there are a couple of things to say about that.

One is that often when people say "the EU" they also mean certain EU governments rather than just EU-level institutions. I know I'm guilty of that.

The second is that we here have a much clearer picture of how the EU behaves towards prospective member states - a ton of stuff like that makes the news here without ever being a news item in any EU member state.

I would also add that, through my work, I've had some contact with actual EU policy documents (pertaining to Serbia) and the people who write them... All I'll say is they don't care one iota about being seen to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries. If that's a perception you've somehow acquired, my advice is to disabuse yourself of it as quickly as possible.

For example, back in July, the EU threatened to withdraw financial support for Ukraine if they didn't reverse their closure of a key anti-corruption body.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20250722-eu-says-ukraine-s-blocks-on-anti-graft-bodies-a-serious-step-back