Meanwhile In Balkans...

[Josh]

Myself as well; this is not being reported in the U.S.

[ink]

17 hours ago, glenn239 said:

What are the core issues?  Economics, politics, cultural?   The article said the government was "pro-Russian", but I thought Serbia was pro-EU?

The current government was brought into power in 2012 on the back of what appears to be a backdoor deal with the EU (Merkel) and US. They've since had pretty solid support from the EU and US in everything they've done* - even though no progress of any kind has been made re: EU accession since about 2017/2018.

In short, this is a Western-backed dictatorship.

The Russians, of course, also support the government because they have just enough sway to keep their stake in Gazprom and a few other shady perks.

The Chinese are happy with the government too, because it's letting them extract minerals at rates (and prices) that would make a corrput Congalese official blush.

So, long story short, no external support for the protests has been detectable in any form since they began almost 10 months ago.

I'll add one final thing: no shots have been fired yet (apart from some warning shots fired into the air), but we're getting awfully close!

 

 

*In 2023, for example, the elections were broadly seen as having been rigged (especially the local elections in Belgrade), yet the EU and US came out in support of the regime immediately - even going so far as to say that protests about the result (organised by a broad coalition of pro-democracy voices) were unjustified.

 

CORRECTION: not "stake in Gazprom" but "Gazprom's stake in Serbia's national oil company NIS".

Edited August 16 by ink
to add a correction.

[ink]

59 minutes ago, Josh said:

Myself as well; this is not being reported in the U.S.

No reports in the UK media to speak of either.

And in Europe, just a smattering of French- and German-language news items here and there.

[blatob]

I have no delusions about  EU. They want minerals, like China does, and they don' t care how many people are killed. That is why media blackout regarding this is in effect. That is why many people openly hate EU. Just like we see Chinese as someone who wants to destroy us, so we see them.

[blatob]

As for elections. Every election on every level is rigged. Everything is used -importing voters from other countries who are given citizenship over the night, with fake ids and fake addresses (dozens people on a address that is empty lot covered in gravel), voter lists filled with long dead people who vote for the regime, people having to make a photo of the ballot to show thst they voted for dictator in order to keep job, voters being payed with cooking oil and sugar to vote... 

And party strongmen patrolling around the voting posts to intimidate people.

 

Funny how, after recent local election in one small town (about 12000 people) , an eldery couple complained that they were cheated. They got kilo of sugar, kilo of flour, liter of cooking oil, but not 25 euros that were promised by local party boss. 

Edited August 16 by blatob

[glenn239]

3 hours ago, ink said:

The current government was brought into power in 2012 on the back of what appears to be a backdoor deal with the EU (Merkel) and US. They've since had pretty solid support from the EU and US in everything they've done* - even though no progress of any kind has been made re: EU accession since about 2017/2018.

In short, this is a Western-backed dictatorship..

So Serbia is being exploited like a colony of Europe and China by way of a bought and paid for government, at the behest of the EU?  I can't say I'm entirely surprised, but still a sad state of affairs.   I take it there's no path forward?

[blatob]

With current regime? There will be complete distruction of the country and nation.

[Ssnake]

I don't think there's much love for Vucic in the EU; the EU's strategic goals are to prevent yet another Balkans war, and to keep Russia and China out of Serbia if possible. They would rather do it with a non-dictatorial, non-corrupt government. But until then, they'll work with what's there.

[glenn239]

Prevent another Balkans war between who and whom?  Serbia and Kosovo?  Is that a possibility?   In terms of the EU dictating who Serbia has economic relations with, that sounds like a sphere of influence.  I thought the EU was against those on principle?  Or is it that only Russian or Chinese spheres of influence should not exist?

Edited August 16 by glenn239

[blatob]

We are not children, on this grate site... Seriously, spheres of influence exists and always did. As for EU, they helped propagate this regime because it gives them whatever they ask. Serbia recognised Kosovo, due to all the agreements that were signed, with little or no discussion. If EU company wants something, it gets it. Goverment pays them, actually. 

Consider our goverment like colonial administrators, given free hand to embezzle any money recived as EU help and also to take part into drug trafficking into EU.

 

Other facet is taking huge loans and siphoning most of them into the various off shore accounts. Example: a road is to be built connecting Hungary and Romania via North Serbia. Roughly, it follows old k.u.k. railway trace. Initial assessment was that it will cost 488million euros. New assesment is that it needs 2 billion. Of that, some 200 million will be the real cost of works done, I suppose, rest will dissapear. 

And the biggest one is 20 billion loan for specialised expo in 2027.  We will have pay all those loans back. Currently that ammounts 100 or so billion, with economy in shambles . As a guarantee, president will probably put up all goverment owned land, including national parks, rivers, etc. 

 

 

[bojan]

2 hours ago, Ssnake said:

I don't think there's much love for Vucic in the EU...

Fact that lithium mining in Serbia was put among EU "strategic projects" says otherwise. Because there is absofuckinglutely none in Serbia that supports that other than cunts in power and that 75+% of population, which includes even some of his supporters opposes it.

Yes, the EU is not monolith thing and I know there is some opposition to him, recently from IIRC German SDs and Greens, but overall that amounts to very little when it comes to actual dealing with him.

How fucked up situation is can be seen by the fact that a lot of EU emmisionaries go to talk directly with him about things that he has no 

Quote

They would rather do it with...

They shivved Tadic, which was, while also incompetent at least a little bit less corrupt and authoritarian. But that government refused to sign Brussels agreement with Kosovo, so someone else was needed, and number of various "political groups" that came to coach SNS how to win (and amount of finances they received...) was staggering. That included congratulations to SNS candidate, Tomislav Nikolic 3 hours before pools were actually closed and before anyone could have known the results. Which when published actually lead to a significant drop in the number of voters in the last two hours (which when traditionally significant number of anti-SNS voters come to vote*) which might have been a margin that gave Nikolic victory. Had it happened in some other country it would have been a scandal, and rightfully so. Imagine Russia congratulating AfD on their victory while voting is still going on?

https://www.slobodnaevropa.org/a/24587244.html

*Yes, I know when various parties fans came to vote back then, I was election monitor on every single one elections 2000-2014. 

 

[blatob]

And lets be honest, countries do not have friends. They have interests. And they will do whatever they can to fullfil them, especialy if the can get away with that in the regard to their local voting power. 

If our country gets devastated the story of that will get supressed by any means possible. If it blows up after the current EU clique retires from power, well, everyone will just shrug and the life will go on. Who gives shit about Libia or Iraq?

[Josh]

It sounds like a nightmare and I apologize for my country’s role in it. I feel like if any U.S. administration drew a line in the sand against this corruption and authoritarianism that it could be stopped, or at least made far less profitable.

[ink]

19 hours ago, glenn239 said:

So Serbia is being exploited like a colony of Europe and China by way of a bought and paid for government, at the behest of the EU?  I can't say I'm entirely surprised, but still a sad state of affairs.   I take it there's no path forward?

Without external support* for the anti-government protests, there is very little chance of an overthrow of the government. Whenever the regime feels their backs are against the wall, the EU comes in with some show of support for them that keeps them going.

And now, the Russians have also promised not to remain passive - i.e., they have promised to help the government stay in power.

A rare example of (indirect) EU-Russian geopolitical coopertion.

The Chinese, of course, are silent because events are already going in their favour.

Trump may think Vučić is a putz, but he's not about to start supporting pro-democracy and anti-corruption movements any time soon.

So, to sum up, the most likely outcome is that the protests will eventually be suppressed by ever more repressive measures by the government - more illegal and unfounded arrests (already taking place), more brutality by the police and pro-regime thugs (already taking place), and probably some torture (already beginning) and extra-judicial killing (not taking place yet, but looks to be right on the horizon). This will result in a country like Belarus. It's literally the only way the regime can stay in power.

The other possible outcome (though unlikely), is that the regime will somehow collapse. Vučić is much much weaker than Lukashenka, Serbia has less of a history of that kind of repression, Russia is farther away, and there is at least a chance (slim though it may be) that EU support for the regime will at some point become untenable.

 

* In the current circumstances, it's hard to even see what form that support could take. The EU have already legitimised the clearly rigged elections, and there are very few legal proceedings in Serbia that the EU could pin their support to. And yet, it still remains the case that there has never (since the end of the Cold War, at least) been such a sweeping and popular pro-democracy movement in Europe that has received so little support from European powers (or indeed from any European country).

Edited August 17 by ink

[bojan]

9 hours ago, Josh said:

It sounds like a nightmare and I apologize for my country’s role in it...

Absolutely no need for that from you. Unlike some others you were not one that was trying to convince me some 10 years ago that I am overreacting and that "EU reports say that SNS reduced corruption".

[bojan]

2 hours ago, ink said:

... This will result in a country like Belarus....

No. Venezuela.

Talked with a guy from Belarus, very anti-Lukashenko where we compared situations. Key difference is that in Belarus:

- There is a pecking order, and what is allowed to Lukashenko is not allowed to every low level supporter* like it is in in Serbia.

- For key projects they actually use (and have enough of) capably people, so no collapse of any train station so far.

- Quality control on infrastructure projects was very, very strict.

- Oligarchs are strictly capped how much they can embezzle, and when they step out of line they are changed.

Lukashenko and his regime is much closer to what Tito or Franco were (when not looked at with rose tinted glasses) than to current cunts.

*Like video of "assistant of the deputy of the president of Rakovica municipality" slapping cop**, published in media, with zero consequences for him because he is a member of the ruling party.

**My respect toward cops went to a historical low because, while not ACAB, 90% of them are either spineless cunts or straight out sadists, taking all sorts of humiliation from SNS supporters, while attacking brutally actual peaceful protestors.

 

[ink]

3 hours ago, bojan said:

No. Venezuela.

Talked with a guy from Belarus, very anti-Lukashenko where we compared situations. Key difference is that in Belarus:

- There is a pecking order, and what is allowed to Lukashenko is not allowed to every low level supporter* like it is in in Serbia.

- For key projects they actually use (and have enough of) capably people, so no collapse of any train station so far.

- Quality control on infrastructure projects was very, very strict.

- Oligarchs are strictly capped how much they can embezzle, and when they step out of line they are changed.

Yeah, this is actually a very good point. One of the 'weaknesses' of the regime in Serbia has been it's inability to punish even the least significant of its members. So much of this could have been avoided (and they would be free to continue stealing) if they could have offered up a few scapegoats at key points over the past 13 years.

[Pavel Novak]

7 hours ago, ink said:

Without external support* for the anti-government protests, there is very little chance of an overthrow of the government. Whenever the regime feels their backs are against the wall, the EU comes in with some show of support for them that keeps them going.

And now, the Russians have also promised not to remain passive - i.e., they have promised to help the government stay in power.

A rare example of (indirect) EU-Russian geopolitical coopertion.

The Chinese, of course, are silent because events are already going in their favour.

Trump may think Vučić is a putz, but he's not about to start supporting pro-democracy and anti-corruption movements any time soon.

So, to sum up, the most likely outcome is that the protests will eventually be suppressed by ever more repressive measures by the government - more illegal and unfounded arrests (already taking place), more brutality by the police and pro-regime thugs (already taking place), and probably some torture (already beginning) and extra-judicial killing (not taking place yet, but looks to be right on the horizon). This will result in a country like Belarus. It's literally the only way the regime can stay in power.

The other possible outcome (though unlikely), is that the regime will somehow collapse. Vučić is much much weaker than Lukashenka, Serbia has less of a history of that kind of repression, Russia is farther away, and there is at least a chance (slim though it may be) that EU support for the regime will at some point become untenable.

 

* In the current circumstances, it's hard to even see what form that support could take. The EU have already legitimised the clearly rigged elections, and there are very few legal proceedings in Serbia that the EU could pin their support to. And yet, it still remains the case that there has never (since the end of the Cold War, at least) been such a sweeping and popular pro-democracy movement in Europe that has received so little support from European powers (or indeed from any European country).

It seems to me that the only politicians outside of Serbia angry at Vucic are now Slovak opposition in Slovakia. Otherwise it is either lack of interest or denouncing protesters as another Maidan.

[bojan]

1 hour ago, Pavel Novak said:

...or denouncing protesters as another Maidan.

Or as "Russian sponsored right wing revolution" as German ambassador noted on certain meeting with local assholes.

[Pavel Novak]

39 minutes ago, bojan said:

Or as "Russian sponsored right wing revolution" as German ambassador noted on certain meeting with local assholes.

That is really f..... .

[urbanoid]

20 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Prevent another Balkans war between who and whom?  Serbia and Kosovo?  Is that a possibility?   In terms of the EU dictating who Serbia has economic relations with, that sounds like a sphere of influence.  I thought the EU was against those on principle?  Or is it that only Russian or Chinese spheres of influence should not exist?

Yes.

[urbanoid]

19 hours ago, blatob said:

We are not children, on this grate site... Seriously, spheres of influence exists and always did. As for EU, they helped propagate this regime because it gives them whatever they ask.

Still very short-sighted and such things have a tendency to backfire. The EU isn't going to like it if Serbia becomes another Belarus/Venezuela/whatever. Even worse if the result is some kind of a civil war.

Edited August 17 by urbanoid

[Markus Becker]

1 hour ago, bojan said:

Or as "Russian sponsored right wing revolution" as German ambassador noted on certain meeting with local assholes.

What in the name of fornication...

State Media is singing the praises of the protesters loudly and the Amb is doing that? 

[ink]

55 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Still very short-sighted and such things have a tendency to backfire. The EU isn't going to like it if Serbia becomes another Belarus/Venezuela/whatever. Even worse if the result is some kind of a civil war.

I disagree a bit actually. I think there's a very strong streak of (call it what you will) anti-Balkanism among some European leaders that means they would get a kick out of seeing Serbia be a basket case that needs EU intervention. They're actually more threatened by wholesome, educated and upstanding Serbian students steuggling for a just cause than by corrupt bloodthirsty thugs clinging onto power so they can fly their coked-up whores around in private jets. (For one thing, the latter are a whole lot easier to control.)

[blatob]

1 hour ago, ink said:

I disagree a bit actually. I think there's a very strong streak of (call it what you will) anti-Balkanism among some European leaders that means they would get a kick out of seeing Serbia be a basket case that needs EU intervention. They're actually more threatened by wholesome, educated and upstanding Serbian students steuggling for a just cause than by corrupt bloodthirsty thugs clinging onto power so they can fly their coked-up whores around in private jets. (For one thing, the latter are a whole lot easier to control.)

Truly so. You are more in control if the controlled party is out only for money and don't think of anything else. Much less complications.

 

As for the future events, we are past the point of police torture and unlawful arrests - with cause for arrest being fabricated and arrested having nothing to do with the protests because they have been picked up from coffee shops or betting parlors... We still don't know whereabouts of some arrested (or better said kidnapped) juveniles, nor their condition. I won't be surprised to see people being disappeared.

To top it, dictator has announced today that someone will get killed if the protests continue. Either he will have some of his people shot and claim protestors did it, or he will have protestors shot. Take your pick.

Edited August 17 by blatob