Meanwhile In Balkans...

[glenn239]

15 hours ago, ink said:

 

There is undoubtedly Russian influence in Serbian affairs - it just isn't as strong as Western influence. Not by a long shot.

What's the overall trend for Sino-Russian influence over, say, the past decade?  Increasing, decreasing, or static?

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2 hours ago, glenn239 said:

What's the overall trend for Sino-Russian influence over, say, the past decade?  Increasing, decreasing, or static?

That's a tricky question indeed. I guess a precise answer would depend on the metrics used. However, in the absence of an objective assessment of this kind, I would (anecdotally) say that Russian influence has ebbed and flowed. It grew, steadily, for a long time as Russia grew more powerful and looked to exert greater influence - hence the purchase of the national oil company, the opening of a search and rescue centre, and a slew of other projects. It probably waned a little in the aftermath of the war - more as a consequence of the Western "partners" trying to stamp it out - see the pressure to introduce sanctions and Vučić not going to Kazan.

It is now hard to gauge properly. But it pales in comparison to Western influence.

Chinese influence has just grown and grown. Steadily. But without any big political demands beyond the bending of environmental and employment regulations for their companies. Which is serious, but a bit different to the kind of influence sought and obtained by the other two "sides".

Hope that goes some way to answering your question.

[glenn239]

Yeah, thanks.  So Russian influence is at best static and China's is on the rise, but the West still has a commanding lead....

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2 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Yeah, thanks.  So Russian influence is at best static and China's is on the rise, but the West still has a commanding lead....

You got it in one! But, worth bearing in mind that that's just like my opinion man. By which I mean, I haven't done any measuring or anything. Just telling it how I see it, you know.

[Roman Alymov]

12 hours ago, ink said:

Ok, I have an interesting question (to me, least ways) here:

If that turns out not to be true - i.e. if it turns out the Russian state is running a non-pro-Western foreign policy - would that change your view of how pro-Western they are generally?

Frankly, i can't imagine how it could be (note my opinion is based not only on some open sources, but also on other sources i can't specify, and this opinion is more or less shared by people who are far more informed then i am). What i could teoretically imagine is that part of Russian elite/Gov (as "Russian state" is actually loose composition of interest groups, often antogonistic) are at some moments and in some places acting against the interests of their Western masters, of own economical or political reasons. It would not be something outstanding, sometimes it happens with colonial administrations (and Russian riling elite was constructed in 1990th by West as colonial administration of Russia). Would i be surprised that some people who have betrayed Russia have also betrayed their Western masters? Not at all, but it is interesting who this undercover Archibald Tuttles are. That is why i have asked you who, in your opinion, is practicing "Russian influence" in your country.

12 hours ago, ink said:

Interesting thing to note here, quite a few Ukrainians (some of whom later became significant figures on the right in Ukrainian politics) also volunteered in Serbia in 1999.

It is sort of unclear story actually

"A little bit about the participation of UNA-UNSO (banned in the Russian Federation) in the Yugoslav wars
Recently, rumors have begun to spread about the participation of the organization in the fighting in the Kosovo War, on the side of the Serbs. There is no good information about this, only the Unsovians themselves speak about it, stating that: "In 1999, the UNSO sent its last volunteer contingent, this time to Kosovo to support the Serbs against the Albanians. "
There is a little more information about the UNA's participation in other Yugoslav wars, but also little.
A quote is given from Mikhail Polikarpov's book "Sacrifice. Where did the guy get the Serbian sadness"

Chapter 9. Patriot games.

"Rumors about the participation of UNA-UNSO militants in the fighting on the side of the Croats are occasionally exaggerated. I came across a funny and at the same time unfortunate case. In November 1994, somewhere near the town of Titov-Dvar, a group of UNA-UNSO militants fought on the side of the Serbs. Several more fighters were nearby — but on the other side of the front, on the side of the Croats. The management <of UNA-UNSO> decided to use Bosnia as a "simulator" to gain combat experience. They came here together, and then split up and chose opponents according to their political sympathies. For some, the Serbs were Orthodox brothers, for others, allies of the hated Russians."

Well, finally, I will express my opinion. UNSO is constantly on the radar, and thanks to propaganda, many people know about it. However, there is much less real military merit behind it than the hype created. The UNSO played any significant role except in Transnistria, where they helped the Russian Cossacks fight off the Moldovans. In Abkhazia, and even more so in Chechnya, they gave color rather than being a real military force. Therefore, their participation in the territory of Kosovo is theoretically real, but it seems that the contingent was too small to be noticed, moreover, the Serbs had an abundance of forces, their paramilitary formations had no place to operate". ( Немного об участии УНА-УНСО (запрещена в РФ).. | Югославская Мемная Республика | ЮМР )

Edited October 28, 2024 by Roman Alymov

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13 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Frankly, i can't imagine how it could be (note my opinion is based not only on some open sources, but also on other sources i can't specify, and this opinion is more or less shared by people who are far more informed then i am). What i could theoretically imagine is that part of Russian elite/Gov (as "Russian state" is actually loose composition of interest groups, often antogonistic) are at some moments and in some places acting against the interests of their Western masters, of their own economical or political reasons. It would not be something outstanding, sometimes it happens with colonial administrations (and Russian riling elite was constructed in 1990th by West as colonial administration of Russia). Would i be surprised that some people who have betrayed Russia have also betrayed their Western masters? Not at all, but it is interesting who this undercover Archibald Tuttles are. That is why i have asked you who, in your opinion, is practicing "Russian influence" in your country.

The short and honest answer is I don't know.

From where I'm sitting, I have a few tangential (but often telling) insights into Western influence through my work, but when it comes to Russian influence, all I can see are the outcomes. That makes it impossible for me to comment on who is perpetrating those outcomes and it wouldn't be worthwhile, I don't think, for me to just guess at it.

[JWB]

Orban gets snubbed

 

https://x.com/SzabadonMagyar/status/1854493823801471300

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16 hours ago, JWB said:

Orban gets snubbed

 

https://x.com/SzabadonMagyar/status/1854493823801471300

It's only the Austrians who think the Balkans start in Budapest. The Germans are fond of saying the Balkans start in Vienna, of course, but they're both wrong.

It's all very similar to west Germans saying Berlin is a Slavic city.

Anyway, all of that is to say that Orban is Europe's problem - we've got our own down here (though they sure are similar).

[Stefan Kotsch]

1 hour ago, ink said:

The Germans are fond of saying the Balkans start in Vienna, ... .

...  west Germans saying Berlin is a Slavic city.

This is absolutely new to me. Are there reliable German sources for this? Except Twitter...

[ink]

1 hour ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

This is absolutely new to me. Are there reliable German sources for this? Except Twitter...

Which bit?

I think it might have been Karl Kraus who said the thing about Vienna. But it was also repeated to me by my Austrian friend who said, "the Germans are always telling us that we're at the gateway to the Balkans". He was having a pop at Germans for being all snooty about their Austrian brethren.

I cannot for the life of me remember where I heard the Berlin thing. Might Google it later.

[Stefan Kotsch]

50 minutes ago, ink said:

I think it might have been Karl Kraus

I guessed Lisa Eckhart. 🙃😊

50 minutes ago, ink said:

Germans for being all snooty about their Austrian brethren

I thought the opposite was true? The Austrians call us Piefkes  [untranslatable]. 🤣

Edited November 8, 2024 by Stefan Kotsch

[Roman Alymov]

5 minutes ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

I thought the opposite was true? The Austrians call us Piefkes  [untranslatable]. 🤣

May be translatable in fact, but not from German:

"Piefke (German Piefke), abbreviated Pif (Pief) is a nickname that the inhabitants of Austria and especially Vienna call the inhabitants of a part of Germany, currently it is mainly called tourists from Germany. In Germany itself, this nickname is used as a playful designation for a braggart or an imaginative.

The nickname usually refers to residents of the areas of former Prussia north of the Main, especially speakers of the Northern, Berlin, Brandenburg and Westphalian dialects. This border is also called the "Equator of white sausages". As a rule, this nickname does not apply to residents of central Germany who speak the Thuringian-Upper Saxon dialect. There are numerous derivatives of this word (Piefkenese, Piefkei). The Pifke are determined by the North German melody of the sentence. The stereotypes attributed to the "pifke" include noise, rudeness, insensitivity, inflexibility, culinary tastelessness, misunderstanding of Austrian culture and tradition, as well as the designation of Austrian literature as German. Some of these stereotypes are related to cultural differences between Catholics and Protestants.

The name was also used by the German poet and artist Wilhelm Busch in the children's book Plop and Plop to refer to the "stupid Englishman".

Origin
Presumably, the surname "Pifke" has Slavic roots, as a diminutive of "beer".

The most common theory of Joachim Schneider, according to which the nickname came from the surname of the Prussian composer Johann Gottfried Pifke, famous for creating military marches.

On July 31, 1866, after the victory of Prussia in the Prussian-Austrian war, Pifke organized a large military parade near Vienna on behalf of King Wilhelm I. Pifke and his brother Rudolf, who conducted the musical corps, who were tall, entered the city at the head of the parade of the 50,000-strong Prussian army. Hence the expression "The Pythons have come" (Die Piefke's kommen), which was common among Viennese, brought up in the spirit of the traditions of exquisite classical music. Opponents of this version question it, demanding serious documents and written evidence.

According to the theory of Peter Wehle, the nickname is associated with the march of Pifke, written for the capture of Dubbel in the Prussian-Danish war of 1864.

Usage in modern culture
Recently, the term "Pifke" has entered the literature, it is often treated with humor, the term is included in travel guides to Austria. Felix Mitterer wrote the book "The Saga of the Mutual Fund", on the basis of which a series of programs were made on Austrian and then on German television. The book sparked heated discussions about German tourism in the Alps." ( Пифке — Википедия )

[bojan]

Best answer where Balkans begin:

 

[urbanoid]

^ LOL!

How the mighty have fallen:

Edited November 8, 2024 by urbanoid

[Roman Alymov]

Serbain volunteer among pro-Russians https://t.me/boris_rozhin/143712

[ink]

14 hours ago, urbanoid said:

^ LOL!

How the mighty have fallen:

Course, they can't cook either 😎

[ink]

14 hours ago, bojan said:

Best answer where Balkans begin:

 

Yeah, this is about right culturally too, I reckon (sorry Croats 😉).

[ink]

9 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Serbain volunteer among pro-Russians https://t.me/boris_rozhin/143712

His Russian is much better than mine, but even I can tell his accent is atrocious.

[JWB]

22 hours ago, bojan said:

Best answer where Balkans begin:

 

I could not understand what he was saying. I seems he is talking about a river. Which one?

[urbanoid]

13 minutes ago, JWB said:

I could not understand what he was saying. I seems he is talking about a river. Which one?

Since he mentioned Ljubljana, a natural guess would be Ljubljanica river.

[Roman Alymov]

8 hours ago, ink said:

His Russian is much better than mine, but even I can tell his accent is atrocious.

Russia is multiethnic country (+millions of migrants here) so his accent is not atrocious for Russians. More over, Serbian accent/language is sort of popular across Russian-speaking word, seen as sort of fun - see for example this video from "Kvartal 95", TV show by standup comedian Zelensky (it was regular part of the show - "Serbian TV interview with visiting star")