Meanwhile In Balkans...

[bojan]

Distrust comes, among others, from realization that small time agriculture producer (ATM ~70% of agricultural production is from small producers) has no chance in hell in EU and only decently sized producers (ATM ~15%) can survive, and for decent profit you need to be a corporation.

Look how Croatian agricultural production went after they joined EU...

[ink]

2 hours ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

This is probably a similar illusion to the one asylum seekers from Africa have. You come to the land of milk and honey and all your worries are gone, money is raining down from above and all you have to do is collect it.

I think Bojan's answer above is pretty much the same as mine. Except that I would extend it beyond agriculture.

Serbs aren't (contrary to appearances) workshy or disorganised. Not any more so than, say, Slovaks. Most people by and large just want to work and earn enough money to raise their kids.

And, in the long term, EU membership would probably be good overall for ordinary folk (just). But with the current lot in power - the potential of ordinary people is being stifled (it's not so black and white but neither is it good). And who put them in power and is keeping them there?

2 hours ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

How successful EU membership will be depends on the country, its politicians and its citizens. If politics sends absolutely contradictory signals to the people, the people are more likely to develop distrust. And the government can then say, see, we told you so...

I agree, on the whole. Although I would point out that there is also a big geopolitical component to it. Serbia is unimportant, which is why there's no geopolitical pressure to a) have it inside the European Union and b) make that membership work.

The Baltics are (or rather were) a corruption and crime disaster (i.e. not fundamentally different to Serbia) but was and is a broader incentive to make their membership work. Serbia doesn't have that luxury.

 

[urbanoid]

The EU is quite a shitshow now, except for a few (unrequited) crushes it might not be interested in expanding for years to come.

[ink]

18 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

The EU is quite a shitshow now, except for a few (unrequited) crushes it might not be interested in expanding for years to come.

Good map!

[Stefan Kotsch]

3 hours ago, ink said:

Serbs aren't ... workshy or disorganised

For God's sake, no. That's not what I meant! I meant rather excessive expectations. And that in connection with the reference to the work of the government. So I didn't word that correctly. Excuse me. I am aware that politics in Serbia is quite a 'do the splits'.

Otherwise we're not that far apart.

 

[ink]

1 hour ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

For God's sake, no. That's not what I meant! I meant rather excessive expectations. And that in connection with the reference to the work of the government. So I didn't word that correctly. Excuse me. I am aware that politics in Serbia is quite a 'do the splits'.

Otherwise we're not that far apart.

 

No, I'm sure you worded it fine. Sorry about that, I've been talking about Serbia and the EU all week with some Dutch guys at my company so probably some of those conversations bled over into here.

[Josh]

7 hours ago, urbanoid said:

The EU is quite a shitshow now, except for a few (unrequited) crushes it might not be interested in expanding for years to come.

The Turkey bit made me laugh.

Edited September 14, 2024 by Josh

[urbanoid]

1 minute ago, Josh said:

Who the hell wants Turkey? But yes, we’ll met.

"Even more you" in this case means that the EU would want Turkey in even less than in case of Serbia.

[Josh]

4 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

"Even more you" in this case means that the EU would want Turkey in even less than in case of Serbia.

Yes, I had reread it and edited my post afterwards.

[Yama]

43 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

"Even more you" in this case means that the EU would want Turkey in even less than in case of Serbia.

Olli Rehn, who led EU-Turkey negotiations in the early 2000s, has since told that most EU countries were very positive towards Turkey's membership, but process was actively sabotaged by some - most notably Austria and France - who made it very clear that they would never accept Turkey into EU. Unresolved Cyprus situation provided a convenient excuse.

[urbanoid]

nah, nothing ever happens

[JWB]

How accurate?

 

[urbanoid]

2 hours ago, JWB said:

How accurate?

 

Hmm...

@ink ? @bojan ?

[R011]

Unless Serbia starts invading it's neighbours or massacring it's people it's of little outside importance who their friends are - and and I haven't heard they're going to do either 

[ink]

2 hours ago, urbanoid said:

Hmm...

@ink ? @bojan ?

Mixed bag, imo. Some stuff in there is accurate (such as painting Vulin as Moscow's man in the regime), but some is a little off the mark. For example, Vučić wasn't "prevented" from attending the BRICS summit by visits from Tusk and von der Leyen, he was already "unable" to go - despite a personal invitation from Putin - and their visits were used as cover for that.

There is undoubtedly Russian influence in Serbian affairs - it just isn't as strong as Western influence. Not by a long shot.

Edited October 27, 2024 by ink

[urbanoid]

Just now, ink said:

Mixed bag, imo. Some stuff in there is accurate (such as painting Vulin as Moscow's man in the regime), but some is a little off the mark. For example, Vučić wasn't "prevented" from attending the BRICS summit by visits from Tusk and von der Leyen, he was already unable to go - despite a personal invitation from Putin - and their visits were used as cover for that.

There is undoubtedly Russian influence in Serbian affairs - it just isn't as strong as Western influence. Not by a long shot.

Why was he appointed then in the first place?

[ink]

2 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Why was he appointed then in the first place?

Like I said, there is some Russian influence.

[urbanoid]

Well, on Vucic's part it might be a ploy to extract a bit more from the West. 

[Roman Alymov]

1 minute ago, ink said:

Like I said, there is some Russian influence.

How is this "Russian influence" working on practice? Rus Foreign Ministry is controlled by pro-Western liberals (and ethnic Armenian lobby, as many believe) so they can't influence anything, and they are the only people legally acting abroad. Then what branch of Rus Gov is doing it?

[ink]

4 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Well, on Vucic's part it might be a ploy to extract a bit more from the West. 

Yes, certainly. And that's possibly not a million miles from the truth.

Though he might also just be trapped in a system of pressures from multiple sides, unable to always do the thing that's in his personal best interests (going to Kazan, for example, would have been great for his image with his most loyal supporters).

[ink]

5 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

How is this "Russian influence" working on practice? Rus Foreign Ministry is controlled by pro-Western liberals (and ethnic Armenian lobby, as many believe) so they can't influence anything, and they are the only people legally acting abroad. Then what branch of Rus Gov is doing it?

Hard to say. But I think if you take a look at the last couple of ambassadors to Serbia, you will be hard pushed to paint them as pro-Western liberals. 

Also worth remembering that Gazprom owns the national oil company in Serbia and that most gas imports were, until recently (a deal for Azeri gas is in the works), from Russia.

[Roman Alymov]

2 minutes ago, ink said:

Hard to say. But I think if you take a look at the last couple of ambassadors to Serbia, you will be hard pushed to paint them as pro-Western liberals. 

Well. let's see

Current Ambassador ( https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Боцан-Харченко,_Александр_Аркадьевич ) - graduated from MGIMO ( elite Diplomatic Academy in USSR and Russia) in 1979, meaning unavoidably "golden boy", one of those who have ruined USSR. His son was vice-Governor of one of the regions of Russia, married to Zhirinovsky's daughter = the family is indide inner circle of Russian political elite, by definition pro-Western (as there are no pro-Russian people ther, they are not tolerated)

Previous Ambassador  ( Чепурин, Александр Васильевич — Википедия )  - graduated  from MGIMO in 1975, with degree in English, French and Italian ( = crème de la crème of Soviet elite families). Was head of Foreign Ministry human resource department in 1994-96 ( it is the years when Minister was Andrey Kozyrev, now proud citizen of USA and loud critic of Russia) 

Here is the full list of Ambassadors to Serbia, but i'm affraid it is no use of going down the list.... Список послов России и СССР в Сербии — Википедия

13 minutes ago, ink said:

Also worth remembering that Gazprom owns the national oil company in Serbia and that most gas imports were, until recently (a deal for Azeri gas is in the works), from Russia.

Gazprom is the organisation created to transport Russian resources to West for free (in exchange for de-facto IOUs and with good kickbacks for Russian political elite, of course ) in controlled way. No reason to expect them to make anything for Russia (unless under severe political pressure).

[ink]

6 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Well. let's see

Current Ambassador ( https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Боцан-Харченко,_Александр_Аркадьевич ) - graduated from MGIMO ( elite Diplomatic Academy in USSR and Russia) in 1979, meaning unavoidably "golden boy", one of those who have ruined USSR. His son was vice-Governor of one of the regions of Russia, married to Zhirinovsky's daughter = the family is indide inner circle of Russian political elite, by definition pro-Western (as there are no pro-Russian people ther, they are not tolerated)

Previous Ambassador  ( Чепурин, Александр Васильевич — Википедия )  - graduated  from MGIMO in 1975, with degree in English, French and Italian ( = crème de la crème of Soviet elite families). Was head of Foreign Ministry human resource department in 1994-96 ( it is the years when Minister was Andrey Kozyrev, now proud citizen of USA and loud critic of Russia) 

Here is the full list of Ambassadors to Serbia, but i'm affraid it is no use of going down the list.... Список послов России и СССР в Сербии — Википедия

Gazprom is the organisation created to transport Russian resources to West for free (in exchange for de-facto IOUs and with good kickbacks for Russian political elite, of course ) in controlled way. No reason to expect them to make anything for Russia (unless under severe political pressure).

Ok, fine, we can do it your way. The influence in Serbia that is "non-Western" (i.e. Russian) could well be being dictated by pro-Western Russians if you want. Though I imagine people like urbanoid (and me too, if we get down to it) will have a hard time thinking of them as pro-Western. But let's not get bogged down in that rabbit hole.

What you still have to explain then is that Serbia didn't introduce sanctions against Russia - even though the amount of actual trade is relatively (compared to trade with the EU and China) small. And even though there has been immense pressure to "align" its foreign policy with the EU. Also, Serbia has been playing a game of messing around with Russian dissidents by not allowing them entry or labelling them as security threats. So why bother if with any of that if all the pressure on Serbia, from both sides, is "pro-Western"?

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, ink said:

Ok, fine, we can do it your way. The influence in Serbia that is "non-Western" (i.e. Russian) could well be being dictated by pro-Western Russians if you want. Though I imagine people like urbanoid (and me too, if we get down to it) will have a hard time thinking of them as pro-Western. But let's not get bogged down in that rabbit hole.

Let me note not any "non-Western" influence is mandatory Russian. May be it is Chinese meddling, who knows (still, i do not see why would China bother to).

1 hour ago, ink said:

What you still have to explain then is that Serbia didn't introduce sanctions against Russia - even though the amount of actual trade is relatively (compared to trade with the EU and China) small. And even though there has been immense pressure to "align" its foreign policy with the EU. Also, Serbia has been playing a game of messing around with Russian dissidents by not allowing them entry or labelling them as security threats. So why bother if with any of that if all the pressure on Serbia, from both sides, is "pro-Western"?

  It would be arrogance from my side trying to explain events or processes in Serbia without indepth knowlege of the country. All i can do is to comment on Russian side of the relations. There is no political force in Russian elite/Gov who are able to willingly and systematically practice pro-Russian policy even inside Russia, not to mention foreign relations. At least, on official level. Yes there is a strong symphaty to Serbs in Russian grass roots (to great degree mixed with hidden feeling of shame for abandoning Serbs to NATO bombings in 1990th)  - even despite of the fact Russian volunteers who actually fought on Serb side back then are far less enthusiastic (especially about politicians of Serbia - see Strelkov repeatedly naming Putin "our Miloshevich"). 

 

[ink]

2 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Let me note not any "non-Western" influence is mandatory Russian. May be it is Chinese meddling, who knows (still, i do not see why would China bother to).

  It would be arrogance from my side trying to explain events or processes in Serbia without indepth knowlege of the country. All i can do is to comment on Russian side of the relations. There is no political force in Russian elite/Gov who are able to willingly and systematically practice pro-Russian policy even inside Russia, not to mention foreign relations.

Ok, I have an interesting question (to me, least ways) here:

If that turns out not to be true - i.e. if it turns out the Russian state is running a non-pro-Western foreign policy - would that change your view of how pro-Western they are generally?

2 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

At least, on official level. Yes there is a strong symphaty to Serbs in Russian grass roots (to great degree mixed with hidden feeling of shame for abandoning Serbs to NATO bombings in 1990th)  - even despite of the fact Russian volunteers who actually fought on Serb side back then are far less enthusiastic (especially about politicians of Serbia - see Strelkov repeatedly naming Putin "our Miloshevich"). 

Interesting thing to note here, quite a few Ukrainians (some of whom later became significant figures on the right in Ukrainian politics) also volunteered in Serbia in 1999.