Meanwhile In Balkans...

[Perun]

1 hour ago, urbanoid said:

https://uploadnow.io/en/share?utm_source=BQknMvq

Downloaded, thanks mate 😁

[JWB]

 

[ink]

Yeah, the current regime in Serbia are rapidly pivoting westwards when it comes to weapons acquisition (and other things too). The arms purchases from Russia and China are a thing of the past. Hardly surprising, I suppose, given who backs the regime, but it does grind a bit when one sees headlines like "Serbia, Russia's Balkan Ally" in Western media.

[TrustMe]

Serbia recently bought a Chinese SAM system so it hasn't gone fully westernised yet.

[ink]

The purchase was made back in 2020 and deliveries have been hampered by Western interference in the deal. Things appear to have been tightened up a bit since the war began.

[Roman Alymov]

4 hours ago, ink said:

Yeah, the current regime in Serbia are rapidly pivoting westwards when it comes to weapons acquisition (and other things too).

It is strange they are still alowing Russian concerts in Belgrade 

 

About current perception of events in Yugoslavia in modern Russia (translated from https://t.me/Mikle1On/15571   )

"Having destroyed Serbia, NATO, unwillingly and not understanding what they do,  as by electrick shock, restarted the heart of a dying country that had almost stopped beating.

The U-turn of Primakov's plane over the Atlantic closed the "dashing nineties" for us <in Russia>. Something new is starting, and what it is depends on you and me"

[ink]

1 hour ago, Roman Alymov said:

It is strange they are still alowing Russian concerts in Belgrade 

 

Not so strange. There are around a 100,000 Russians in Belgrade now + some Belarusians and Ukrainians. And a huge chunk of the population are reflexively pro-Russian and anti-Western.

I was commenting on the regime, though, not the people.

[ink]

Just by the by, I think what's happening in Serbia at the moment is kind of fascinating.

The foreign powers are all happy to tolerate or even encourage Serbian pro-Russian sentiment because it serves their interests. For the EU's part, they don't really want Serbia to join - at least not unless it's completely on their terms - so anything that can be used to separate Serbia from "EU values" is a useful tool.

The US definitely doesn't want Serbia in the EU, so they are even better served by anything that can be used or portrayed as a hurdle.

Further down the road, this pro-Russian sentiment can also be used to paint the Serbian people as backward, should the need for that arise.

Of course, the Russians love the Serbian people's "friendship" because they can use it to show they are not alone in the world or in Europe even.

For its part, the Serbian government finds this all very convenient too, because they can present themselves to their voters as playing off East against West, even though they are, in fact, completely pro-Western.

So what you end up with is a schizophrenic situation in which the government (or regime) is fully supported by the West, fully doing the West's bidding but held permanently in a state of limbo in which none of the actual concrete benefits of Euro-Atlantic integration are made available. Meanwhile, the media space is flooded with faux pro-Russian messaging intended to perpetually "other" the masses.

Throw in a hundred thousand or more politically apathetic or mildly anti-Putin, middle class Russians and it makes for an interesting situation - both locally and geopolitically.

And all that without even mentioning Kosovo, Bosnia, the migration routes, organised crime, corruption, Erdogan, or China.

[urbanoid]

The question is if Serbia joined, would the EU end up with another 'Hungary'? A country 'playing East against the West'? 

Governments can change* and unlike Hungary Serbia seems to have genuine pro-Russian sentiment among the large share of the population.  

Also not sure while you're talking about 'Euro-Atlantic', is NATO membership even on the table?

*well, some of them, I don't see Hungary changing its government tbh, Fidesz seems to have a country totally in its' grip, as for Serbia I have no idea as my knowledge about your internal politics is close to non-existent

[bojan]

NATO is extremely unpopular (guess why...). Any membership in it would be a political suicide, even for a current group of assholes.

 

Explaining current protests to a foreigner:

"Wait, there are EU and anti-EU flags on the same protests?"

"Yes"

"And Serbian (ok...), Russian and Ukrainian ones?"

"Yes"

"And people in Z t-shirts marching next to people with Ukrainian flags"

"Yes"

"WTF?"

"Not everything in the world revolves around Russia and Ukraine"

 

Edited July 15, 2023 by bojan

[Pavel Novak]

6 minutes ago, bojan said:

NATO is extremely unpopular (guess why...). Any membership in it would be a political suicide, even for a current group of assholes.

 

Explaining current protests to a foreigner:

"Wait, there are EU and anti-EU flags on the same protests?"

"Yes"

"And Serbian (ok...), Russian and Ukrainian ones?"

"Yes"

"And people in Z t-shirts marching next to people with Ukrainian flags"

"Yes"

"WTF?"

"Not everything in the world revolves around Russia and Ukraine"

 

In Cz we have this year achieved common demonstration of Roma people together with ultra-nazi sympathizers. So anything is possible.

[ink]

6 minutes ago, bojan said:

NATO is extremely unpopular (guess why...). Any membership in it would be a political suicide, even for a current group of assholes.

 

And long may that remain the case!

Unfortunately, the Serbian military is already quite far down the NATO integration path in bureaucratic terms (and other things like training, standards, logistics, relationships, etc). Indeed, it's almost as close to NATO integration as it is possible to be without an application for full membership. Definitely, when Montenegro joined the alliance back in 2017, some high ranking officers there complained that the Serbian military was (much) better prepared for NATO membership than they were.

[urbanoid]

12 minutes ago, bojan said:

NATO is extremely unpopular (guess why...). Any membership in it would be a political suicide, even for a current group of assholes.

 

Explaining current protests to a foreigner:

"Wait, there are EU and anti-EU flags on the same protests?"

"Yes"

"And Serbian (ok...), Russian and Ukrainian ones?"

"Yes"

"And people in Z t-shirts marching next to people with Ukrainian flags"

"Yes"

"WTF?"

"Not everything in the world revolves around Russia and Ukraine"

 

That I more or less understand. Some other things I assume, like the government being de facto pro-Western because that's where the money is - understandable, but hardly a basis for integration.

The theoretical Serbian accession to the EU would likely take place long after the war in Ukraine (or at least its current 'hot' phase) is over, that's why my question was more general in nature - would the EU end up with another member 'playing the East against the West'? 

The other thing is that I consider popular sentiment as much or more important as the government's. While Hungary's pro-Russianness seems to stem from the government alone, Serbian population is typically considered pro-Russian. How much pro-Russian/anti-Western it is and what could the consequences be 10-20 years down the road?

[ink]

49 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

The question is if Serbia joined, would the EU end up with another 'Hungary'? A country 'playing East against the West'? 

Governments can change* and unlike Hungary Serbia seems to have genuine pro-Russian sentiment among the large share of the population.  

Also not sure while you're talking about 'Euro-Atlantic', is NATO membership even on the table?

*well, some of them, I don't see Hungary changing its government tbh, Fidesz seems to have a country totally in its' grip, as for Serbia I have no idea as my knowledge about your internal politics is close to non-existent

There's no telling what Serbia would be like if it joined the EU at this stage - mostly since there is no prospect of that happening. Still, a more likely scenario, to my mind, would be another Bulgaria. Weak democracy, crippling corruption and organised crime, an unfree media space, skyrocketing wealth inequality and, ultimately, little to no power to affect any EU-wide outcomes.

Of course, Russia still "owns" Serbia's national oil company and provides most of its natural gas. So that should be taken into account and some Hungary-like (or Orban-lite) behaviour is surely to be expected.

As for the government changing? No chance of that any time soon. There is no organised political opposition to speak of and, even if the current opposition parties were able to get into government, they would be able to offer no alternative to the existing regime's political programme.

Lastly, as Bojan said, formal NATO membership is definitely not on the table in any sense.

[urbanoid]

Fair enough. Sounds like a not-so-great a deal for either side.

[ink]

4 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

While Hungary's pro-Russianness seems to stem from the government alone, Serbian population is typically considered pro-Russian. How much pro-Russian/anti-Western it is and what could the consequences be 10-20 years down the road?

It's hard to say with these things really. I haven't conducted any carefully constructed surveys with a representative sample... and neither has anyone else.

All I can say is based on what I've experienced anecdotally and through existing in the Serbian media space as an end user. At the end of the day, that isn't all that useful.

That said, my impression is that some pro-Russian sentiment is very reasonably based on Serbia's history in which Russia and the Russian people were mostly Serbia's allies in its liberation struggle against the Ottomans and also later in its various conflicts with Central or Western European powers (and, of course, the cultural/religious ties everyone always mentions when talking about this).

Another portion of pro-Russian sentiment is, on the other hand, driven by a combination of trash media reporting on Putin, Russia and anti-wokeism, combined with a reflexive anti-Western sentiment that can itself be broken down into two interlocking components:

1) very reasonable dissatisfaction and frustration with the fruits of attempts to integrate with the EU specifically that go back more than 20 years;

and 2) a widespread feeling that the EU and US are hypocritically preaching values to Serbia from on high, trying to change Serbian society and interfering in Serbian affairs, culture and way of life, without offering any of the benefits of a "Western" way of life or addressing the issues in their own societies.

There's a hidden 3) that nobody seems to mention, which is that the rich and stable societies of Western Europe and North America have stripped Serbia of it's best and brightest over the last 30 years... and are now busily stripping Serbia of its cooks, drivers, nurses, carers, plumbers, etc.

[ink]

3 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Fair enough. Sounds like a not-so-great a deal for either side.

It would be a good deal for Serbia (to get access to EU funds at the level of a full member state - the EU's poorest, were it to enter now or soon). But a bad deal for the EU, which already gets all the benefits of Serbia being a member (access to markets, labour, etc.) without any of the headaches.

[urbanoid]

3 minutes ago, ink said:

It's hard to say with these things really. I haven't conducted any carefully constructed surveys with a representative sample... and neither has anyone else.

All I can say is based on what I've experienced anecdotally and through existing in the Serbian media space as an end user. At the end of the day, that isn't all that useful.

That said, my impression is that some pro-Russian sentiment is very reasonably based on Serbia's history in which Russia and the Russian people were mostly Serbia's allies in its liberation struggle against the Ottomans and also later in its various conflicts with Central or Western European powers (and, of course, the cultural/religious ties everyone always mentions when talking about this).

Another portion of pro-Russian sentiment is, on the other hand, driven by a combination of trash media reporting on Putin, Russia and anti-wokeism, combined with a reflexive anti-Western sentiment that can itself be broken down into two interlocking components:

1) very reasonable dissatisfaction and frustration with the fruits of attempts to integrate with the EU specifically that go back more than 20 years;

and 2) a widespread feeling that the EU and US are hypocritically preaching values to Serbia from on high, trying to change Serbian society and interfering in Serbian affairs, culture and way of life, without offering any of the benefits of a "Western" way of life or addressing the issues in their own societies.

There's a hidden 3) that nobody seems to mention, which is that the rich and stable societies of Western Europe and North America have stripped Serbia of it's best and brightest over the last 30 years... and are now busily stripping Serbia of its cooks, drivers, nurses, carers, plumbers, etc.

What about those polls?

On Russia and China:

Quote

Most respondents (40%) perceive Russia as Serbia’s best friend, and 72% believe that Russia’s influence in the country is positive, which is an increase of 11% compared to the results of the survey from 2017. After Russia, second place on the list of friends is reserved for China (16 percent of respondents). The growth of positive attitudes towards China is especially visible after the beginning of the pandemic, which is proved by the fact that 75% of respondents believe that China provided the most assistance to Serbia in the fight against the pandemic, although there are no official data on the amount of Chinese aid. According to available data, the largest donor was the European Union (EU), and only 3% of Serbian citizens recognize that. In addition, almost 90% of respondents believe that the Chinese influence in the country is positive, which is an increase of over 30 percent compared to the survey from 2017.

On the EU:

Quote

Although EU membership has been a strategic goal of Serbia since 2005, only 9% of respondents believe that it is the main foreign policy priority of Serbia. Citizens recognize the preservation of Kosovo as part of Serbia, strengthening cooperation with neighboring countries and strengthening cooperation with Russia as the three most important foreign policy priorities. Although Serbia is a candidate for EU membership, only 20% of respondents believe that the state should harmonize its foreign policy with Brussels.

The results of the survey show that the majority of 51% do not support Serbia’s membership in the EU, compared to 46% of respondents who would opt for membership. This result indicates that the number of opponents of European integration has increased since 2017, when only 35% of citizens voted against EU membership.

The latter part I can understand, after waiting close to 20 years it's probably an automatic reflex to say 'fuck you, we don't need you'.

Sauce, not sure if credible, I just googled it:

https://bezbednost.org/en/publication/many-faces-of-serbian-foreign-policy-public-opinion-and-geopolitical-balancing/

 

I agree that the Serbs have a lot of historical 'justifications' to think somewhat positively about Russia, probably more than any other nation in Europe. 

26 minutes ago, ink said:

It would be a good deal for Serbia (to get access to EU funds at the level of a full member state - the EU's poorest, were it to enter now or soon). But a bad deal for the EU, which already gets all the benefits of Serbia being a member (access to markets, labour, etc.) without any of the headaches.

I think all other countries that joined since 2004 had to the same - open the markets long before the actual membership actually took place - except in Serbia's case there was no membership and it doesn't seem to be coming anytime soon. Maybe those funds (and it should be relatively a lot in the first ~25 years or so) would offset the benefits the Western companies already enjoy in Serbia to some extent. 

That quite a lot of the 'best and brightest' leave for the Western Europe for jobs - that's another thing that seems to be happening in most of the post-communist countries, EU members or not. It's not like anyone can ban those people from doing it. 

My own purely anectodal evidence about that is from visiting Albania in 2018 or so. We had our hotel in the outskirts of Vlore and spent 2 or 3 days in the city, the most unbearably hot hours in the air-conditioned cafe. The young guy working there (he was 18 IIRC) told me that his and pretty much everyone else's plan is to leave for the West and get a job there, he said his older brother was already in France and he's going to join him. At least in that part he was 'a typical Albanian', though he didn't care much about buying a Mercedes as soon as he has the money, which is probably what passes for a heresy there.

[ink]

1 hour ago, urbanoid said:

My own purely anectodal evidence about that is from visiting Albania in 2018 or so. We had our hotel in the outskirts of Vlore and spent 2 or 3 days in the city, the most unbearably hot hours in the air-conditioned cafe. The young guy working there (he was 18 IIRC) told me that his and pretty much everyone else's plan is to leave for the West and get a job there, he said his older brother was already in France and he's going to join him. At least in that part he was 'a typical Albanian', though he didn't care much about buying a Mercedes as soon as he has the money, which is probably what passes for a heresy there.

😂

Yes, in most parts of Serbia too! Many are the tales of Serbian Gasterbeiters (often from rural areas) renting BMWs and Mercs to drive home in the summer so they can show off how successful they are.

Quote

 

What about those polls?

On Russia and China:

On the EU:

The latter part I can understand, after waiting close to 20 years it's probably an automatic reflex to say 'fuck you, we don't need you'.

Sauce, not sure if credible, I just googled it:

https://bezbednost.org/en/publication/many-faces-of-serbian-foreign-policy-public-opinion-and-geopolitical-balancing/

 

Those bezbednost.org guys are ok and the poll they conducted is probably good as a broad indication of public opinion. All due respect to them, though, but this is not an in-depth analysis. It's more just a quick and dirty survey, probably conducted as part of some EU or USAID project so they can tick the "Did you conduct a public opinion survey? ✅" box in their final report back to the donor.

Quote

I think all other countries that joined since 2004 had to the same - open the markets long before the actual membership actually took place - except in Serbia's case there was no membership and it doesn't seem to be coming anytime soon. Maybe those funds (and it should be relatively a lot in the first ~25 years or so) would offset the benefits the Western companies already enjoy in Serbia to some extent. 

Probably so but, as we said already, it ain't happening. Serbia's only real hope is that life on the edges of the EU  (or, more properly, in this weird dead space between EU countries) continues to grow the economy enough that things slowly and eventually get better. Hard to say how that's going at this stage as inflation has wiped out much of people's quality of life and the Russians are pricing local people out of central Belgrade apartments.

Quote

That quite a lot of the 'best and brightest' leave for the Western Europe for jobs - that's another thing that seems to be happening in most of the post-communist countries, EU members or not. It's not like anyone can ban those people from doing it. 

I recognise that it's inevitable, sadly, I just wanted to point out that it is another source of frustration with the West.

[Roman Alymov]

17 minutes ago, ink said:

.....and the Russians are pricing local people out of central Belgrade apartments.

I think it is temporary: the same is happening in other places like Georgia (since money obtained from leting to rent average middle class appartment somewhere in Moscow suburbs or big Russian regional city are enough to rent good flat in most of countries of Eastern Europe, not to mention Caucasus and Central Asia, but hardly enough to both rent a flat and maintain living standards this middle class "self-exiled"  are used to), so sooner or later they will have to go back or go to jobs market (where not all of them will be able to make money as easyly as they got accustom to in Russia). 

Edited July 15, 2023 by Roman Alymov

[urbanoid]

3 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

I think it is temporary: the same is happening in other places like Georgia (since money obtained from leting to rent average middle class appartment somewhere in Moscow suburbs or big Russian regional city are enough to rent good flat in most of countries of Eastern Europe, not to mention Caucasus and Central Asia, but hardly enough to both rent a flat and maintain living standards this middle class "self-exiled"  are used to), so sooner or later they will have to go back or go to jobs market (where not all of them will be able to make money as easyly as they got accustom to in Russia). 

Though likely quite a lot of them still work 'in Russia', just remotely. But on the whole I agree, things tend to stabilize in the long term.

[urbanoid]

23 minutes ago, ink said:

😂

Yes, in most parts of Serbia too! Many are the tales of Serbian Gasterbeiters (often from rural areas) renting BMWs and Mercs to drive home in the summer so they can show off how successful they are.

BMWs? Nah, not Audis either. I could swear half of the cars I saw in Albania were MBs, they're obsessed with them. Even the NYT noticed more than 20 years ago.

https://www.nytimes.com/2002/11/10/world/in-poor-albania-mercedes-rules-road.html

[Roman Alymov]

1 minute ago, urbanoid said:

Though likely quite a lot of them still work 'in Russia', just remotely. 

Yes, but for obvious reasons people who are physically in Russia got advantage at local (Russian) job market, and as i said above, with time more and more of those "self-exciled" will have to go back (many of them with understanding of how wrong were their ideas about "civilized countries").

[ink]

7 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

BMWs? Nah, not Audis either. I could swear half of the cars I saw in Albania were MBs, they're obsessed with them. Even the NYT noticed more than 20 years ago.

https://www.nytimes.com/2002/11/10/world/in-poor-albania-mercedes-rules-road.html

Yeah, I suppose here it's more of a mix. Mostly, as long as it's a German car and the windows are blacked out, emigre Serbs tend to be happy.

5 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Yes, but for obvious reasons people who are physically in Russia got advantage at local (Russian) job market, and as i said above, with time more and more of those "self-exciled" will have to go back (many of them with understanding of how wrong were their ideas about "civilized countries").

I can say anecdotally that many of the Russians who ended up in Belgrade are a little aghast at how disorganised or disordered everything is. I suspect they're more accustomed to well-ordered Russian cities like Yekaterinburg, Moscow, St Petersburg, etc.

Also, many are pretty young, which leads me to suspect that some well-off Russians sent away their young (but still of military age) kids to safe havens.

Other Russians I've met or heard about are indeed still working in their well-paid Russian jobs. For them, Belgrade is very cheap for everything from food to rent. But their salaries are many times (more than x10) the local average, so this is definitely driving prices upwards.

[bojan]

There is another things why Russia is popular among common people, and that is agricultural exports to Russia. Unlike infernal EU bureaucracy, that more-less only large agriculture producers can navigate with profit, export to Russia is far more friendly to a smaller producers. Hence, sanctions toward Russia will hurt those small producers heavily.

  

27 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

...in Albania were MBs...

Local nickname was "Gypsy's dream" or "Albanian's dream" due the it's popularity among them.  

14 minutes ago, ink said:

...I can say anecdotally that many of the Russians who ended up in Belgrade are a little aghast at how disorganised or disordered everything is...

And how "flow of life" is slow compared to Russia... and Belgrade is considered "super fast" in Serbia.

Most interesting comment was from Ukrainian family that moved to a flat next to mine - "Feels kinda like Ukraine before everything went to shit".

Edited July 15, 2023 by bojan