Myanmar Rebels Vs Gov

[RETAC21]

3 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

If they are already acting like the Chinese, then ultimately it makes little difference if they are a satellite or not.

If we dont act when Democracies are toppled, you are going to see many emergent regimes, such as Iraq or Afghanistan, see it as a nod they can get away with it too without consequence.

And yes, I feel the same way about about Aung San Suu Kyi. At least she was democratically elected, flawed though she obviously is.

Define "act", becuase there are only 2 ways to get this reversed:

- Reach an agreement with the military to return power and reform the Constitution they have

- Invasion

The "democrats" in Myanmar have managed to mangle the transition to a better, more democratic regime and they havn't tackled (becuase they didn't want to) the fact that is a narcostate where the primary produce is drugs, so either you give the current ruler a bigger carrot or you can save the ink on the proclamations.

[JasonJ]

A large majority of Myanmar population in the country and abroad are probably upset about the coup. That adds pressure for a stronger response to the Myanmar military. Among the G7, that pressure would fall on Japan the most since Japan has the most economic activity going on in there. Japanese Kirin beer announced ending a joint operation with Myanmar beer. Car companies like Toyota and Suzuki stopped operations. There was a large 2 billion LNG pant deal between Japan and Myanmar that would boost total Myanmar energy output by 20%. So there's quite a lot on the line as far as Japan goes which went in step with promotion of democracy in Myanmar. Such activity looks to have achieved quite favorable view of Japan vis a vis the long standing relations standings between Myanmar and China; https://www.tanknet.org/index.php?/topic/34256-hypothetical-war-contest-for-the-spratleys/&do=findComment&comment=1464387

If faults could be found about Suu Kyi, its unlikely to be greater than those faults that can be had with top military officials such as Min Aung Hlaing. Suu Kyi also the November election by a land slide. Min Aung Hlaing was backing the party that lost the election. So he ordering the military to take over looks more like a blunt power move than some sort of action taken out from necessity.

Myanmar has many different ethnic group and the military government is probably better at keeping influence to the majority in control. A civilian government would probably be looking to increase a share of influence to other ethnic groups, particularly the Rhohingya. The top ethnic group being Barma that are Buddhist make up upper 60 percent of the population but Buddhism as a whole make up around 87 percent of the whole population so other top populated ethnic groups are Buddhist as well such as the Shan, Karen, and Rakhine. Military hardliners probably don't want to share power influence with much smaller Islam groups. Although given that the population as a whole still supported and voted for Suu Kyi by a large amount and expressing their outrage would indicate that they have little concern about the small Islam groups, assuming that Suu Kyi's party would aim for that at some point. Well just some thinking out loud about that. I'm getting an impression that Min Aung Hlaing being typical power wanting military person with little care for the concept of democracy. But so long as he and his military are in control, they can cut Japan links if they want and replace it with China counterparts. In the past years, China has expressed its acceptance of Myanmar to pursue democratic functions. So China hasn't been so anti-Myanmar democracy, at least not openly. Surely they don't like democratic countries on their border since democracy in general is a headache to the CCP. And China seems to have no issue with a military controlled Myanmar. If military control Myanmar felt ever more pressed by G7 countries and company, they may even seek Russian support in a nuclear weapons program, as there seemed to have been hints of that activity around 2010 or so. Another DPRK if you will.

Supposedly Min Aung Hlaing's seizure of control is supposed to be only for a year. If a path to the return of democracy can be assured in that timeframe, then maybe much of the links created between Japan and Myanmar can be preserved so that they can return in more positive environment after the year. And if after a year, the military seeks to not make any move to return democracy, then more hard decisions may have to be made if not have been made yet.

[Simon Tan]

It's not nearly as significant narcostate as it was. As a percentage of GDP, it has fallen substantially, not least because of which it has been supplanted by Afghanistan, tribal Pakistan and Mexico as the main source of opium. Golden Triangle has terrible logistics. More pertinently a lot of the processing activity has moved to Malaysia, where the authorities are as easily corrupted but has far lower logistical costs. Indeed, the last year or so has seen a major disruption of these networks. Malaysia has been a nexus of for Asian criminal entities due to the corruptibility of government, low costs and delicious food. Singaporean, Chinese, Indonesian and Bangladeshi bosses love to come here.

[Simon Tan]

To understand Burma, you must discard your worthless western lens. It is a cultural issue, more than anything else. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

Interestingly the Burmese protesters have all been giving the 'Hunger Games' salute.

[Stuart Galbraith]

On 2/4/2021 at 3:04 PM, RETAC21 said:

Define "act", becuase there are only 2 ways to get this reversed:

- Reach an agreement with the military to return power and reform the Constitution they have

- Invasion

The "democrats" in Myanmar have managed to mangle the transition to a better, more democratic regime and they havn't tackled (becuase they didn't want to) the fact that is a narcostate where the primary produce is drugs, so either you give the current ruler a bigger carrot or you can save the ink on the proclamations.

Or we Magnistky act all the Generals. Because like as not, I doubt they bank their ill gotten gains inside Burma, do you?

 

[RETAC21]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Or we Magnistky act all the Generals. Because like as not, I doubt they bank their ill gotten gains inside Burma, do you?

 

Great idea, except probably you can't trace where they keep their funds. How many Myanmarese generals are exiled out of Myanmar? 0? 

[sunday]

6 hours ago, Simon Tan said:

To understand Burma, you must discard your worthless western lens. It is a cultural issue, more than anything else. 

Also, it is better your given name is not Stuart, nor Galbraith your surname.

[Stuart Galbraith]

1 hour ago, RETAC21 said:

Great idea, except probably you can't trace where they keep their funds. How many Myanmarese generals are exiled out of Myanmar? 0? 

Well we dont really know that for sure do we? We have had absolutely no problem figuring out where the Kremlin stashes its stolen money. Im not sure im buying the Burmese military are somehow better equipped to that end. Put Bellingcat on it.

There are no good solutions I agree, but wringing our hands and doing nothing but fire memes doesnt commend itself to me either.

 

[Simon Tan]

The Slav Whisperer is also the  Conscience of the Tatmadaw.

[Nobu]

Happy to be proven wrong, but I doubt serious action will be taken. The time for a human rights intervention was years ago.

The outrage relative to serious action is for show, unfortunately. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

20 hours ago, Simon Tan said:

The Slav Whisperer is also the  Conscience of the Tatmadaw.

No, I prefer horseradish generally.  :)

1 hour ago, Nobu said:

Happy to be proven wrong, but I doubt serious action will be taken. The time for a human rights intervention was years ago.

The outrage relative to serious action is for show, unfortunately. 

Yes, I dont disagree.

[BansheeOne]

Quote

Date 07.02.2021

Myanmar: Thousands march in anti-coup demonstratons in Yangon

Tens of thousands of people have rallied in Myanmar to condemn a military coup. The protests happened as authorities ordered an internet blackout across the country.

Protests took place on Sunday against the detention of Myanmar's recently deposed civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi after the country's military seized power.

Tens of thousands of people took to the streets of Yangon, the country's commercial hub brandishing flags and calling for the Nobel laureate's release.

Protests also took place in the second-largest city, Mandalay while the military officials were held up in the capital Naypyitaw.

The rallies followed the largest protests to date on Saturday, when tens of thousands came out in cities across the country to condemn the coup.

No to military 'dictatorship'

Demonstrators held up banners — including some saying "We do not want military dictatorship" — and the signature red flags of Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy (NLD) party.

"We will move forward and keep demanding until we get democracy. Down with the military dictatorship," said protester Myo Win, 37.

Riot police had tried to stop a march in Yangon from reaching the city hall, but some protesters were able to get through.

"I completely despise the military coup and I am not afraid of a crackdown," said Kyi Phyu Kyaw, a 20-year-old university student.

Resistance limited

The weekend rallies went ahead despite authorities ordering an internet blackout across the country.

Resistance to the coup had initially proved limited, due in part to widespread communications difficulties, as well as fears of a further crackdown.

[...]

https://www.dw.com/en/myanmar-thousands-march-in-anti-coup-demonstratons-in-yangon/a-56483943

[Simon Tan]

Nyapidaw watched with great interest as Thailand not only fell under a junta but also saw Rama X  cement control over Thailand with nary a peep from the usual suspects. All the three finger salutes and such were for nought.  The overwhelming victory of the NLD meant that Parliamentary control was all but lost. Better to rule in hell, than to serve in heaven. The Generals felt ever more sidelined as the economy grew. They were becoming less relevant and had declining prestige amongst the elites. 

[BansheeOne]

Quote

Date 09.02.2021

Myanmar police fire rubber bullets at protesters defying ban

Police have fired rubber bullets on demonstrators in Myanmar who gathered in defiance of rules imposed by the military junta that make their protests illegal.

Security forces in Myanmar on Tuesday used rubber bullets and tear gas against anti-coup protesters who rallied to defy a ban on gatherings.

Demonstrators want power restored to the deposed civilian government and freedom for the nation's de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi and her allies.

Protesters against the Myanmar military coup took to the streets of the country's major cities for the fourth day in succession. Police in the capital, Naypyidaw, fired rubber bullets at the demonstrators after earlier blasting them with water cannon.

Coup leaders had issued decrees on Monday night that banned gatherings of more than five people in the remote capital, which was purpose-built by the previous military regime. It was also imposed in the largest and second-largest cities of Yangon and Mandalay. Thousands of people have been demonstrating in both places since Saturday.

The legislation bans gatherings of more than five people and imposes an 8 p.m. to 4 a.m. curfew. It was not clear if decrees were in place for other areas.

According to the Reuters news agency, security forces also arrested at least 27 people in Mandalay alone on Tuesday.

[...]

https://www.dw.com/en/myanmar-police-fire-rubber-bullets-at-protesters-defying-ban/a-56505366

[JasonJ]

This time is "different" Hlaing says. Although if Iran and DPRK are enough of a distraction, it probably wouldn't be necessary for him to be different.

Quote

 

YANGON -- The leader of Myanmar's ruling junta on Monday addressed the nation for the first time since last week's coup, saying the body now in power is "different" from past military governments.

Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing said the new State Administrative Council established last Tuesday includes civilians and members of ethnic minorities, urging "the public to focus on the facts and not be carried away by emotions" as protestors took to the streets nationwide.

With the world watching for signs of what lies ahead for an emerging economy widely seen as one of Asia's most promising, the general assured that the economic policies of the previous government would be maintained and Myanmar will remain open to foreign capital.

"There will be no change in the foreign policy, government policy and economic policy of the country during the periods we are temporarily taking state responsibility," the general said. "We shall carry the same path as before."

The general vowed to defend Myanmar's constitution and hand over power "after the state of emergency provisions have been carried out to hold a free and fair multiparty democracy general election."

After weeks of decrying fraud in last November's general election, the military last Monday ousted the elected government of de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi, arresting her and other political figures. In its place, the junta established a State Administrative Council of handpicked members.

The council has a staff of eight military personnel and eight civilians. The military originally held a majority of the seats, but additional appointments equalized the numbers.

Min Aung Hlaing repeated twice that Myanmar will "maintain friendly relations with all nations," and said there will be no change in diplomatic policy. His conciliatory tone comes as Western nations weigh the possibility of new sanctions against the Myanmar military.

The general justified the removal of the previous government, saying the move was "inevitable" after inaction and excuses on accusations of widespread voting fraud in last November's election. The vote produced a landslide victory for Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy party. A newly appointed election commission has been appointed to investigate cases of voter fraud. The general said the commission is tasked with producing reforms.

On Monday, tens of thousands of demonstrators gathered in front of city hall in downtown Yangon. The military warned that day that it will take "legal measures" against activities that threaten national stability and that endanger public safety and the rule of law.

A curfew was imposed on parts of Yangon as well as on Mandalay and other locations, according to local media. Gatherings of more than five people have been prohibited.

Min Aung Hlaing said Myanmar "will start repatriating our nationals stranded abroad due to the COVID-19 pandemic."

"We will continue receiving the displaced persons in Bangladesh in accord with the bilateral agreement," the general said. "Resettlement work for the internally displaced persons from IDP camps will also be implemented immediately."

 

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Myanmar-Coup/Myanmar-junta-chief-Min-Aung-Hlaing-says-this-coup-is-different

[BansheeOne]

Quote

Date 13.02.2021

Myanmar coup: Neighborhood groups block night arrests

Security forces have stepped up late-night arrests of civil servants, doctors and others. But defiant activists came up with a plan to stop them.

Crowds defied curfews in Myanmar during the night into Saturday, following rumors that police were about to launch a fresh wave of raids on anti-coup activists.

The civil disobedience began hours after a seventh consecutive day of nationwide rallies— the largest so far — ended on Friday.

Demonstrators have held huge daily protests across the country after the military ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi  and seized power on February 1.

The UN Human Rights Council adopted a resolution on Friday calling on Myanmar to release Suu Kyi and other officials from detention. It urged the military government to refrain from using violence on protesters.

What activists did overnight:

Neighborhood groups sprung up to stop arrests of activists, skirting a junta ban on Facebook.

News of such arrests circulated widely on social media, including in memes captioned: "Our nights aren't safe anymore" and: "Myanmar military is kidnapping people at night."

Also on Saturday, the military ordered the arrest of seven well-known backers of the protests for their comments on social media.

Among the seven are pro-democracy activists Min Ko Naing and "Jimmy" Kyaw Min Yu — veterans of the 1988 student uprising. Others facing arrest warrants include a singer, a television presenter, a writer and a political analyst.

In a statement, the military's True News team warned people should report back to police if they see any of the seven listed or risk punishment if they are found sheltering them.

It said the activists could face a sentence of up to two years for comments that the military considers a threat to national stability. 

"I am so proud to have a warrant issued along with Min Ko Naing. Catch me if you can," writer Ei Pencilo said to her more than 1.6 million followers on Facebook.

'We are not afraid'

In the nation's business hub, Yangon, people called others outside to gather and protest by banging pots and pans — an action traditionally associated with driving out evil in the country.

 "We didn't know who will be taken, but when we heard the sound, we went out to join our neighbors," said Tin Zar, a storekeeper in Yangon's north.

"Even if they shoot, we are not afraid," she told news agency AFP.

One group swarmed a hospital in the city of Pathein, 190 kilometers (almost 120 miles) west of Yangon, after rumors that a popular local doctor would be taken. The group chanted a Buddhist prayer urging protection from harm.

"If I have problems, I will ask for your help," doctor Than Min Htut told the group, flashing a three-finger salute that has come to symbolize resistance to the coup.

Than Min Htut spoke to AFP on Saturday to confirm he was still free and would continue to participate in the civil disobedience campaign.

[...]

https://www.dw.com/en/myanmar-coup-neighborhood-groups-block-night-arrests/a-56557135

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

This was, of course, a complete coincidence.

[JasonJ]

Singapore against widespread sanctions on Myanmar.

Quote

 

Singapore's foreign minister on Tuesday spoke out about "alarming developments" in Myanmar but said he did not support widespread sanctions on the country in response to a coup there, which could hurt ordinary citizens.

Addressing parliament, Vivian Balakrishnan said he hoped detainees including ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi and President Win Myint could be released so they can negotiate with the ruling military council, which seized power on Feb. 1.

Balakrishnan said Singapore, a major investor in Myanmar, was concerned about violent clashes at protests, the arrests of civil servants, internet blackouts and troop deployments and armoured vehicles in city streets.

"These are alarming developments. We urge the authorities to exercise utmost restraint," he said.

"We hope they will take urgent steps to de-escalate the situation. There should be no violence against unarmed civilians. And we hope that there will be peaceful resolution."

Balakrishnan said Suu Kyi's party had achieved a landslide victory in the November election and the coup was "a major setback" for Myanmar's economy, adding Singaporean businesses might reassess their risk profiles and exposure to the country.

Imposing broad sanctions would hurt the population in Myanmar, where poverty was rife, he said, adding he had conveyed that in discussions with western counterparts, including Germany.

The United States and Britain are among countries that have announced or threatened sanctions in response to the Myanmar coup.

"We should not embark on widespread generalised indiscriminate sanctions because the people who will suffer most will be the ordinary people in Myanmar," he said.

His remarks were among the most comprehensive by a minister from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which has a policy of non-interference in its members affairs.

Indonesia and Malaysia have been calling for a special meeting to discuss the situation in Myanmar, an ASEAN member.

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2AG0E

[BansheeOne]

Quote

Date 20.02.2021

Myanmar protests: One person shot dead by police — reports

Security forces fired live bullets and tear gas to disperse demonstrations in Mandalay, as anti-coup rallies honored a young woman who died after being shot by the police.

Myanmar security forces fired live rounds, tear gas and rubber bullets at protesters in the country's second-largest city Mandalay on Saturday, injuring civilians. One person was shot dead, according to local media.

Hundreds of thousands of protesters have rallied in Myanmar for more than two weeks against the coup that ousted Aung San Suu Kyi on Feb.1.  

At least six people were injured and another 10 arrested as police opened fire near a shipyard, Myanmar Now reported.

"Shooting is still ongoing. Some people are injured," the city's rescue service chairman told Agence France-Presse news agency.

More than 1,000 people joined the anti-coup protest led by medical students in Mandalay, who marched in mourning of a young woman who died after being shot by the police in an earlier demonstration.

Protesters honor Mya Thwet Thwet Khine

Protesters in Mandalay and Myanmar's largest city, Yangon, carried flowers and banners with Mya Thwet Thwet Khine's photos on Saturday.

Other protesters held signs saying "CDM”, in reference to the civil disobedience movement which workers in several industries have recently joined. 

The 20-year-old woman was confirmed dead on Friday after spending a week on life support in a hospital. 

Mya Thwate Thwate Khaing had participated in a massive protest on February 9 in Myanmar's capital, Naypyitaw, where she was shot.

Police crack down on protests

Security forces around Myanmar have used tear gas, water canons and rubber bullets to disperse protesters since the anti-coup rallies began earlier this month. 

According to The Assistance Association for Political Prisoners monitoring group, authorities have arrested at least 546 people since the coup. 

https://www.dw.com/en/myanmar-protests-one-person-shot-dead-by-police-reports/a-56634755

[Nobu]

The People's Republic of North Vietnam, bizarrely, is calling upon the international community to support a Burmese transition to democracy.

They apparently don't understand that they are next.

[Josh]

I think they just want to stick it to a government that allies with China. And yes, I don't think they are particularly concerned with being unseated themselves.

[BansheeOne]

Quote

Date 28.02.2021

Myanmar: 4 dead as police crack down on anti-coup protests

Protests against the military rule in Myanmar have been met with gunfire and smoke grenades from police. Meanwhile, the country's former UN envoy has vowed to keep fighting "as long as I can."

Myanmar police have cracked down on anti-coup protesters using stun grenades, tear gas and firing into the air, killing at least four people.

Sunday's violence came a day after the most extensive bid to quell unrest against the military regime.

Police opened fire in the southern town of Dawei, killing three and wounding several, politician Kyaw Min Htike told the Reuters news agency.

Local media outlet Dawei Watch confirmed that three had died in the incident.

Police officers also opened fire in the main city of Yangon. A man brought to a local hospital with a bullet wound died from his injury, according to a doctor. Myanmar's Mizzima media outlet also reported the death.

The heavy-handed clampdown has intensified since the military seized power in a coup on February 1.

Mass arrests

Scores of students and teachers have been detained in Yangon, and several bloodied people were seen being helped away from the protests in the city.

[...]

In the northern city of Mandalay, police fired guns into the air, trapping protesting medical staff in a city hospital, a doctor there told Reuters news agency by telephone.

Police were deployed early and in force, taking positions at the main protest sites in the country's two biggest cities where protesters, many clad in protective gear, had gathered, witnesses said.

Medical students were marching in Yangon's streets at an intersection that has become a gathering point for protesters before they spread out to other parts of the city.

Police began chasing the protesters, while residents erected makeshift roadblocks to slow down the police advance.

Fired UN envoy vows resistance

Sunday's violence comes days after a dramatic appeal from Myanmar's UN ambassador Kyaw Moe Tun, who publicly broke ranks with the ruling junta while addressing the UN General Assembly.

He said he was speaking on behalf of the ousted Aung San Suu Kyi civilian government and called for international intervention to help end the coup.

"We need further strongest possible action from the international community to immediately end the military coup," he said on Friday.

On Saturday, Myanmar's state broadcaster reported that the diplomat had been fired because he had "betrayed the country and spoken for an unofficial organization which doesn't represent the country and had abused the power and responsibilities of an ambassador."

"I decided to fight back as long as I can," Kyaw Moe Tun told Reuters in New York.

[...]

https://www.dw.com/en/myanmar-4-dead-as-police-crack-down-on-anti-coup-protests/a-56727837

[Nobu]

The former UN envoy may not need to fly to the sound of the guns just yet. I think he just secured his legacy/standing in the global diplomatic community.

Considering his position on the subject of atrocities allegedly being committed by the same Burmese military in Rakhine a few years ago, he needed to.

  

On 2/23/2021 at 7:50 AM, Josh said:

I think they just want to stick it to a government that allies with China. And yes, I don't think they are particularly concerned with being unseated themselves.

It makes sense, as people and nations often hate what they fear. There is some irony in that Hanoi may owe a degree of its stability to Beijing as well. (That knowledge cannot sit well with them either.)

Edited March 1, 2021 by Nobu

[Josh]

When I was in Vietnam, the dislike of the Chinese was pretty palpable. I'd have thought they would have little tolerance for Americans, but I had no issues. Maybe they thought I was British. But I think culture/race pretty easily trump political ideology in this case.